Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: The NRCC's 40 district ad blitz - Huck works Iowa - Primary viewing guide - Fox News parent gives big to RGA - Biden to NH
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2010 06:06:03 -0400 (EDT)

POLITICO's Morning Score:

By Charles Mahtesian (@charliepolitico, [email-masked])

POLITICO SCOOP --THE NRCC'S 40 DISTRICT AD BLITZ: Alex Isenstadt reports that the NRCC is “readying a $22 million TV ad blitz aimed at a handful of powerful, long-serving incumbents and several dozen of the most junior members of the Democratic majority.” The committee “will invest in 40 districts around the nation in its first wave of television commercial reservations - a target list that ranges from powerful veterans such as Budget Committee Chairman Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.) and Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas), an Appropriations Committee cardinal, to endangered freshmen legislators including Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), Rep. Betsy Markey (D-Colo.), and Rep. Harry Teague (D-N.M.).”

“While Democrats have reserved ad time in 60 races to date, the vast majority of those reservations-54 of them-are designed to protect vulnerable incumbents. Republicans, on the other hand, are investing in an almost entirely offensive effort. Of the 40 seats covered in the NRCC buy, 39 are currently held by Democrats.” Read about the GOP House blueprint here. http://politi.co/awzY48

A FRESHMAN DEMOCRAT NOT ON THE LIST: Rep. Walt Minnick of Idaho. TWO FRESHMEN REPUBLICANS NOT ON THE LIST: Rep. Charles Djou of Hawaii and Rep. Joseph Cao of Louisiana.

POLITICO EXCLUSIVE - HUCKABEE WORKS IOWA: Alexander Burns reports that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is deepening his Iowa political footprint this week, endorsing 11 new candidates in the first-in-the-nation presidential caucus state.

The endorsements are Huckabee's first since the Iowa Republican primaries; he has already backed Sen. Chuck Grassley and state Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey for reelection. Huckabee's favored candidate for governor, conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats, lost in the June 8 gubernatorial primary to former Gov. Terry Branstad. http://politi.co/arb4Pf

POLL PEEK-- THE DIRTY DOZEN: Ayres, McHenry and Associates, a GOP polling firm, went into the field for the conservative American Action Network and found some grim numbers for Democrats in 12 East Coast congressional districts - nine of them in Conn., N.Y. and Pa.

The bad news for Dems -- 68 percent of likely voters say the country is off on the wrong track; Barack Obama has a 43 to 50 percent favorable to unfavorable rating and Nancy Pelosi has an even worse 27 to 57 percent rating. Though each of the 12 seats have a Democratic incumbent, a plurality of voters prefers a Republican on the generic ballot test by a 38 to 31 percent margin

The good news for Democrats - Rep. Nick Rahall is up by a 53 to 37 percent margin in W.Va.

As trackers menace Mark Dayton, Dan Coats woos tea partiers and Chet Traylor fades from view, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

PRIMARY DAY -- VIEWER'S GUIDE: Voters head to the polls today in Washington and Wyoming. Here's what to watch for:

(1) Sen. Patty Murray and Dino Rossi's performance in Washington -- the state's unique top-two jungle primary sends the top 2 finishers to the general election. Ignore the phony expectations game being played by both parties but if Murray is either below 40% or above 50% it's worth noting; (2) The Palin factor -- the former Alaska governor has backed three candidates in Washington and Rita Meyer for governor in Wyoming but Meyer is the one to watch; (3) The Republican House primary in Washington's open 3rd District -- in the 3rd, state Rep. Jaime Herrera and former deputy assistant secretary for Veterans Affairs David Castillo are battling in a contest that pits Herrera, a better-funded establishment candidate, against Castillo, a Republican with a Tea Party following.

LIZ MAIR'S TAKE: Seattle-born and raised GOP consultant Liz Mair surveyed close to 20 Washington state Republican insiders, ranging from party officials to former electeds to political operatives, and asked them what they expected to see when all the votes are counted Tuesday night. http://bit.ly/aWMs71

FOX NEWS PARENT GIVES $1 MILLION TO RGA: News Corp., which owns Fox News and the New York Post, gave $1 million to Haley Barbour's Republican Governors Association this year, according to the RGA's most recent filing. http://politi.co/duTAqF

THE TRACKERS ARE BEING MEAN TO ME: One week after the Minnesota GOP unveiled its first commercial slamming former Sen. Mark Dayton as “risky for Minnesota” and too “erratic” to be governor, Dayton holds a Monday news conference decrying the GOP video trackers who were 'harassing” him and making “it impossible for me to conduct normal campaign activities." Dayton called for an end to candidate trackers except at public events like candidate forums and debates; the state GOP chair's response: “Today's erratic, and frankly weird, call for an end to the long-standing bi-partisan tradition of video-taping public events demonstrates that Dayton is too weak to be governor." http://bit.ly/cKYJbj

DATED MARLIN STUTZMAN, MARRIED DAN COATS: “Indiana tea party activists might never fully embrace former Sen. Dan Coats, but the Republican Senate candidate is making a concerted effort to court the anti-establishment vote,” writes the AP. “Coats' wooing has persuaded some to actively seek to help him win Indiana's open Senate seat.” http://bit.ly/bKhTO6

NEWT BACKS MCCOLLUM: The former Republican House Speaker endorses his longtime House colleague, Bill McCollum, in next Tuesday's Florida governor's GOP primary. “I've always known Bill to be a principled conservative who stands up for what he believes in, and we're witnessing this now in Bill's leadership in the fight against Obamacare and illegal immigration,” Gingrich wrote in an email to Florida members of American Solutions.

CANDIDATE CASH FLOW: W.Va. Gov. Joe Manchin has already raked in $418,000 for his Senate bid so far, reports POLITICO's Shira Toeplitz. Sen. Jay Rockefeller helped him raise about $200,000 at an Aug. 3 event held at the Rockefellers Washington, D.C. home. Mining company owner John Raese, who trails Manchin by double digits in the polls, has already put in more than $320,000 of his own money into the race.

CANDIDATE CASH FLOW, PART II: Former state Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor, Sen. David Vitter's top GOP primary challenger, “has raised a dismal $42,000 since he announced his candidacy last month, a fundraising effort that will provide little threat to the senator in advance of this month's primary election.” http://bit.ly/9U3mZR

BIDEN TO RETURN TO NEW HAMPSHIRE: The Vice President will head north September 27 to bolster vulnerable Rep. Carol Shea-Porter and Rep. Paul Hodes, who is running for Senate. http://bit.ly/apPNtU

I WAS FOR THE MOSQUE BEFORE I WAS AGAINST IT: The Utica Observer-Dispatch's lede: “Republican congressional candidate Richard Hanna reversed himself Monday on the planned Lower Manhattan mosque, saying he opposed the project one week after he'd said he supported it.” The paper notes Hanna's new position came hours after Rep. Michael Arcuri said he doesn't believe the mosque should be built two blocks from Ground Zero. http://bit.ly/beQGUd

FRESHMEN AD WATCH: First-termer Rep. Betsy Markey of Colorado attacks Wall Street bailouts in her first ad http://bit.ly/deUOV3 while another Western frosh, Rep. Dina Titus of Nevada, bashes banks and focuses on home foreclosures with hers http://bit.ly/9TTRqs

RUMORS OF TINFOIL HATS AND BLACK HELICOPTERS ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED: Colorado GOP nominee for governor, Dan Maes, adds two more heavyweight endorsements Monday -- former Colorado Sens. Hank Brown and Wayne Allard -- that could help dispel the notion he's unelectable and possibly even dropping out of the race.

He's expected to announce his running mate Tuesday, when by law he must choose his number two. Maes has reportedly reached out to several state lawmakers including state Sens. Shawn Mitchell and Dave Schultheis. But one Republican with knowledge of the process tells POLITICO's David Catanese that the unlikely GOP nominee has had trouble finding a candidate to agree to come aboard. Maes may have given a hint of his selection during a radio appearance Monday indicating the ticketmate could be a Weld County resident with "legislative experience." That could include Sen. Kevin Lunberg or Sen. Scott Renfroe, who represents Greeley.

ACROSS THE BIG MAP -- with POLITICO's Tim Alberta and Jessica Taylor:

The potential size of 72-year-old California Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown's pension is beginning to get some attention. http://bit.ly/bCqiyq

Ben Quayle's frontrunner status evaporates in Arizona's 3rd District. http://bit.ly/9e45D8

Star Jones records a robocall for Florida Democratic Senate candidate Jeff Greene: “My friend Jeff Greene is unbeholden to any special interest group, corporate entity or government lobbyist.” http://bit.ly/b3qbYm

Gov. Chet Culver delivers his mea culpa at the Iowa State Fair. http://bit.ly/arusWF

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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