Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Huck for McCollum - Jungle Primary Boogie - A 35-45 Seat Gain? - Rod Blagojevich, Felon - The Next Big Thing
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2010 06:20:18 -0400 (EDT)

POLITICO's Morning Score:

By Charles Mahtesian (@charliepolitico, [email-masked])

SCORE EXCLUSIVE - HUCK FOR MCCOLLUM: Mike Huckabee will endorse Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum for governor ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary, sources close to Huckabee and McCollum told POLITICO. Huckabee plans to hold an event for McCollum this weekend in Florida - Huckabee's adopted state - with Jacksonville as the likely location. The former Arkansas governor is the latest in a string of national Republican leaders to swing behind McCollum, following Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, as McCollum battles deep-pocketed health care executive Rick Scott for the GOP nomination. Incoming Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos, a strong McCollum loyalist who supported Huckabee in the 2008 Republican primaries, helped broker the endorsement. The decision to back McCollum is a fresh sign of Huckabee's focus on Florida, after he opened a state-based PAC there in July.

POLITICO EXCLUSIVE - WELCOME TO THE SHOW, DENNY: All the ballots haven't even been counted yet and already newly-minted Democratic nominee Denny Heck is getting slammed on the air in Washington's 3rd District. One day after voters went to the polls in his open southwest Washington-based seat, Americans for Prosperity has teed up a new television ad blasting Heck for supporting “the liberals' $787 billion stimulus that failed to save and create jobs” and for refusing “to oppose new energy taxes that will kill even more jobs.”

“Tell Denny Heck: We need leadership, not Nancy Pelosi's failed policies,” the conservative group's spot concludes.

The $180,390 ad buy on network and cable channels in the district is scheduled to run through August 24. Watch it here. http://politi.co/cRXKe8

POLITICO SNEAK PEEK - MILLER TIME: Remember that guy running against South Carolina GOP Rep. Joe Wilson? The unknown Democrat who raised a boatload after Wilson's “You lie!” outburst against the President? Well, he's at near cash-parity with the incumbent and now Rob Miller is tapping his warchest to go up on network tv with his first spot, a smart definitional ad recounting his experience in Iraq.

“Rob will take the Marine Corps values of honor, courage and commitment to Washington,” says a fellow Marine who served with him. Watch it here. http://bit.ly/cztYXL

ON THE RADIO NOW -- Americans for Job Security is launching a two-week radio effort beginning today to promote former GOP Rep. Pat Toomey's Senate campaign. The conservative group, making its first foray into Pennsylvania this cycle, is going up with ad in the Philadelphia media market focusing on Toomey's plan to create jobs.

“Pat Toomey: Fiscal discipline, lower taxes and common-sense economic policies,” the spot tells listeners. Listen to it here. http://politi.co/cpCaIz

As Dino and Patty get ready to rumble, Charlie Cook floats a 35-45 set gain and Blago proclaims his innocence, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

JUNGLE PRIMARY BOOGIE: As expected, Tuesday's biggest race set up a November heavyweight title fight in Washington between Republican Dino Rossi and Democratic Sen. Patty Murray. Neither put up gangbuster numbers in the state's unique -- and often-revealing -- top-two primary system but neither wet the bed. Murray finished first with a respectable 46 percent, according to incomplete results, and Rossi came in second with 34 percent, placing their performances close to what insiders expected.

The NRSC and DSCC statements signaled what will be a bitterly fought fall campaign-as did President Obama, who took shots at Rossi during his primary day fundraising visit to Seattle Tuesday.

WHAT SCORE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT IN WASHINGTON: What do the tea partiers do in November? It's no small matter--tea party faves Clint Didier and Paul Akers together took roughly 15 percent of the vote Tuesday. Rossi's not their guy but anti-Murray sentiment runs deep enough that Dino might be a no-brainer for them.

RESULTS TICKER -- WHAT ELSE HAPPENED TUESDAY NIGHT: In Washington's open 3rd District, Jaime Herrera, a former aide to Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, will carry the GOP banner against Democrat Denny Heck... In the 2nd District, eyebrows will be raised by Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen's 43 percent to Sarah Palin-backed GOPer John Koster's 41 percent finish... In the 8th, GOP Rep. Dave Reichert won 48 percent to Democrat and former Microsofter Suzan DelBene's 26 percent…In Wyoming, former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead won a GOP primary squeaker over state Auditor Rita Meyer, who conceded. State House Speaker Colin Simpson, the son of former Sen. Alan Simpson, finished a distant fourth. FULL RESULTS AND MAPS at http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/

THE NEXT BIG THING -- COUNTDOWN TO AUG. 24: Four notable races are on tap for next Tuesday: Florida's bloody GOP gubernatorial primary and nutty Democratic Senate primary; Arizona's GOP Senate primary between Sen. John McCain and former Rep. J.D. Hayworth; Alaska's GOP Senate primary between Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Palin-backed challenger Joe Miller.

THE NEXT NEXT BIG THING: The final big primary day of the cycle: Sept. 14, when seven states go to the polls.

A 35 TO 45 SEAT PICKUP?: From Tuesday's Cook Political Report update: “The Cook Political Report is now raising its House forecast from a Republican net gain of between 32 and 42 seats to a gain of between 35 and 45 seats, with the odds of an outcome larger than that range greater than the odds of a lesser outcome.” http://bit.ly/c59wn6

NOTED BY SCORE: Of the 10 Democratic House incumbents downgraded Tuesday by Cook House analyst David Wasserman, not a single one was below 55% in 2008. And three of them racked up more than 60% in their '08 wins.

ROD BLAGOJEVICH, FELON: “Rod Blagojevich was convicted on one count of making false statements to federal authorities Tuesday, but the jury could not reach a verdict on the 23 other counts facing the former Illinois governor, forcing the judge to declare a mistrial.

U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald said prosecutors will retry Blagojevich on at least some of the 23 other counts, including extortion, bribery and conspiracy on allegations that he converted his office into what prosecutors called a “corrupt ring” that included an attempt to trade President Barack Obama's old Senate seat in exchange for jobs and money.” http://politi.co/clkIXI

THE CLOSING ARGUMENT: “No one's going to say he's the sharpest knife in the drawer, but he's not corrupt,” said Blagojevich's attorney, Sam Adam Jr. “Think about who he was trying to extort. The president of the United States? Give me a break!”

THE TRIB'S TAKE: Chicago Tribune editorial, time stamp 7:56 p.m. CDT, August 17, 2010. “Rod Blagojevich behaved Tuesday evening as if he had won a grand victory: The massed resources of federal investigators and prosecutors couldn't convince all 12 jurors of his guilt on 23 of 24 criminal counts. The defiance that has sustained him in the 20 months since his arrest didn't fail him as he stood before reporters and again proclaimed his innocence.

In truth, Blagojevich awakens Wednesday as a convicted felon.” http://bit.ly/bU2T3r

POLLS OF THE DAY: Two Pennsylvania Senate race polls released Tuesday showed identical nine-point margins for former GOP Rep. Pat Toomey over Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak. Rasmussen has it at 46%-37% http://bit.ly/bLkSgo; Public Policy Polling has it at 45%-36%. http://bit.ly/cCQqCP

Both polls show upside-down Obama approval ratings in Pennsylvania: Rasmussen has it at 43%-56% while PPP has an even more grim 40%-55%.

AND: In Illinois, encouraging signs for Democratic Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias. According to a Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday, Giannoulias still narrowly leads GOP Rep. Mark Kirk among likely voters, 37%-35%. http://bit.ly/cgGCgm

SAVE THE DATE: Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln will debate GOP challenger John Boozman in Little Rock on Sept. 10. http://bit.ly/cXrwL6

ACROSS THE BIG MAP -- with POLITICO's Tim Alberta and Jessica Taylor

Following a bone-crushing, front-page, below-the-fold Boston Globe look at his record as a police officer http://bit.ly/9OmET9 10th District GOP congressional aspirant Jeffrey D. Perry defends himself in a debate with his three primary rivals. http://bit.ly/bNr0SX

Oklahoma 5th District runoff candidate James Lankford's sudden arrival on the state's political landscape isn't due to skillful use of social media, but rather to an approach Henry Bellmon used nearly 50 years ago. http://bit.ly/9cr4c

Former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack says she'll wait until next year to decide whether to run for elected office. http://bit.ly/brSIMS

Bill Clinton tells voters in Florida while stumping for Senate candidate Kendrick Meek: ““A year and a half just wasn't enough time to get us out of the hole we were in … Give us two more years.” http://bit.ly/cIIj1C

Sarah Palin endorses Sharron Angle's Senate campaign in Nevada, saying “She's got GUTS and is putting up with more crap than she deserves .” http://bit.ly/c0GPpp

Mark Dayton, the Democratic nominee for governor of Minnesota, invited both Obama and Biden to visit Minnesota and help him raise cash - but only Biden is expected to make it. http://bit.ly/dsybaw

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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