Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Dems win the fundraising month - Monday Stakes: Eyes on Florida - Stevens casts shadow on primary - Reid, Angle set debate date - Biden to boost Strickland - McQuaid attacks Binnie
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2010 05:56:43 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked])

MONDAY STAKES -- There are 71 days left before Election Day and the primaries this week are some of the most critical ones remaining on the calendar. Here's Morning Score's weekly list of which candidates and groups have the most to gain or lose in the next few days:

(1) Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who's going to have to fight fast and furiously to hold onto support for his independent Senate bid once the Democratic Party has a nominee; (2) Mason-Dixon, an already respected firm that could burnish one of the few ironclad reputations in polling if it turns out to have been right, and right early, about the primary comebacks of Bill McCollum and Kendrick Meek; (3) Immigration hawks, poised to win House and gubernatorial primaries in Arizona and Florida, who will need to assess their campaign messages and consider tweaking them for the general election; (4) Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, who took a beating in the Dayton Daily News this weekend and needs to do something -- soon -- to rebut concerns about the state of his campaign; (5) The Quayle dynasty, which could end before it even starts if vice presidential scion Ben Quayle doesn't make it out of the GOP primary for retiring Arizona Rep. John Shadegg's seat.

As Dino Rossi edges ahead, Pat Quinn's top aide resigns and McCain's camp calls it early, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections. Presented with gratitude to Charlie Mahtesian, for taking command of Score last week.

THE WAR CHESTS -- ADDING 'EM UP: Democratic federal campaign committees outraised their Republican counterparts by just under $4 million last month, bringing in $22.1 million to $18.2 million for the GOP groups. The DNC, DCCC and DSCC had a combined $69.1 million on hand at the end of July, versus $48.5 million for the RNC, NRCC and NRSC. The DNC brought in the most cash of the Democratic committees, $11.5 million, while the DCCC leads the field in cash on hand with $35.8 million. On the Republican side, the NRCC topped the field in both categories with $8.5 million raised and $22 million on hand.

FLORIDA, FLORIDA, FLORIDA: Republican state Attorney General Bill McCollum and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek hold the upper hand in Tuesday's primary fights for governor and Senate. A Mason-Dixon poll released over the weekend showed McCollum with a nine-point lead over health care executive Rick Scott, and gave Meek an even larger, 12-point advantage over billionaire real estate developer Jeff Greene. From the Miami Herald: “McCollum's lead ... extends to every area of the state, with the exception of Scott's home region in Southwest Florida. His strongest showing is in Southeast Florida, where he holds a strong advantage among Hispanic, mostly Cuban, Republican voters in Miami-Dade County. ... Meek, who had been trailing in several polls over the summer, can attribute his surge to the African-American Democrats.” http://bit.ly/9dcBos

DISSENTING VIEW: Public Policy Polling's last Florida poll gave Scott a seven-point lead over McCollum, placing him ahead, 47 percent to 40 percent. Writes Tom Jensen: “If Scott does indeed come out the winner it will be because he destroyed McCollum's reputation with conservative voters. McCollum is ahead 44-39 with moderates, but Scott has the overall lead thanks to a 50-39 advantage with conservatives.” http://bit.ly/91keEz

IN ALASKA -- THE STEVENS MANTLE: Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, poised to dispatch GOP challenger Joe Miller in tomorrow's Senate primary, has cast herself as an heir to the late Sen. Ted Stevens in the aftermath of his death in a plane crash earlier this month. The AP reports: “Murkowski, 53, considered the 86-year-old Stevens a mentor. He was with her at a recent campaign event and planned to join her during the final days before the primary. After Stevens died in the Aug. 9 crash, Murkowski changed her Facebook photo from one of her family to pictures of her and Stevens. She likened the loss Alaskans felt with his passing to what Americans felt upon the deaths of Ronald Reagan, John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr. 'The thought of losing Ted Stevens, a man who was known to business and community leaders, Native chiefs and everyday Alaskans as Uncle Ted, is too difficult to fathom,' she said. ... Stevens, who in 2004 appeared in campaign ads calling Murkowski a key member of the delegation, described her as 'a hell of a lot better senator than her dad ever was.'” http://bit.ly/bpk1OL

SCORE WONDERS: How many national networks and publications would have reporters and cameras on the ground in Alaska right now, if Sarah Palin had run for reelection?

TODAY -- BIDEN DOES OHIO -- From the White House guidance: “In the afternoon, Vice President Biden will travel to Toledo, Ohio, for a Middle Class Task Force visit to the Chrysler Toledo Assembly Complex, which includes the main assembly plant producing the Jeep Wrangler and three of the plant's suppliers. ... The Vice President will be joined by Governor Ted Strickland, Senator Sherrod Brown, and Representative Marcy Kaptur. ... At 4:30 PM EDT, the Vice President will attend an event for Governor Ted Strickland.”

AND -- NEXT DOOR: Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway, whose poll numbers ticked up in Eastern Kentucky following Rand Paul's statement that illegal drugs weren't a “real pressing issue” there, will hold an event with law enforcement today to keep pushing a tough-on-crime message. The Democratic Senate candidate will meet with a group numbering between 10 and 15 people, including prosecutors, treatment facility operators and people who have lost loved ones to drug abuse and crime.

CAMPAIGN CLICKS: A new NRSC site, dontraisemytaxes.com, counts down to the expiration of the Bush tax cuts as Dems including Conway and Missouri Senate candidate Robin Carnahan buckle on the issue http://bit.ly/bPXioY ...The DCCC is dropping a fall kickoff video as the committee prepares for a major canvassing project next weekend. http://bit.ly/cRoVo4

SAVE THE DATE -- FIGHT NIGHT: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican challenger Sharron Angle will debate for the first time on Oct. 14, two days before early voting starts in Nevada. The event will air statewide on more than 50 television and radio stations. http://bit.ly/dzpuvr

TAKE TWO -- ROMNEY IN MICHIGAN: Mitt Romney endorsed former Gateway CEO Rick Snyder's bid for governor of Michigan on Sunday, getting behind the GOP nominee after his first-choice candidate came up short in the Republican primary. “Rick Snyder is a successful businessman, manager, and job creator, which makes him uniquely qualified to lead Michigan through these challenging times,” Romney said in a statement. The former Massachusetts governor initially supported Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who finished second in the primary to the self-funded Snyder. http://bit.ly/b8ci8u

POLL OF THE DAY -- ROSSI BOUNCES: A SurveyUSA robo-poll conducted for Seattle's KING-TV 5 shows Republican Senate candidate Dino Rossi several points ahead of Democratic Sen. Patty Murray after last week's open primary. Rossi draws 52 percent of the vote to Murray's 45 percent, and the pollster observes: “Among men, Rossi leads by 27 points; among women, Murray leads by 12. ... Each candidate holds roughly 9 of 10 partisan votes; independent voters, today, break 5:3 Republican. ... The contest is even in Metro Seattle; Rossi leads by 9 in Western Washington, and by 23 in Eastern Washington.” http://bit.ly/budrbP

PLUS -- ADVANTAGE ABERCROMBIE: Former Rep. Neil Abercrombie holds a slight lead in Hawaii's Sept. 18 Democratic gubernatorial primary, according to a Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now poll. Abercrombie, takes 49 percent of the Democratic primary vote to former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann's 44 percent. The Star-Advertiser notes: “Abercrombie had a higher approval rating on Oahu - where he represented urban Honolulu's 1st Congressional District for two decades in Congress - than on the neighbor islands. Hannemann - the mayor of Honolulu for the past six years - had a significantly higher approval rating on the neighbor islands than on Oahu.” http://bit.ly/9WtsMs

MCQUAID VS. BINNIE: The publisher of New Hampshire's Union Leader newspaper personally takes an axe to GOP Senate candidate Bill Binnie in today's paper, slamming the wealthy executive after Binnie took out an ad in the pages of the Union Leader to dispute a story linking him to outsourcing. Writes McQuaid: “Binnie was nice enough to pay for a full-page ad in the Union Leader last week, addressed to our readers and disputing our recent story that reported his shutting down of a California factory in favor of building one across the border in Tijuana, Mexico. ... He says we were wrong, but his own company's annual report -- hand signed by Binnie himself -- says otherwise. Why he denies the truth with a straight face, when he knows the facts are out there and easily verified, is an interesting question.” http://bit.ly/ccRMLk

QUINN CAN'T CATCH A BREAK: First his budget director talked about implementing a major tax hike. Then he parted ways -- acrimoniously -- with his campaign consultants. Now, Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn has lost his chief of staff to an ethics probe. Quinn aide Jerry Stermer left his post after coming under scrutiny for possibly sending political correspondence over state e-mail. “The people of Illinois must have full confidence in the leadership of their state, and I will not be a distraction in achieving that goal,” Stermer said. http://bit.ly/cp27lw

THE HOUSE MAP -- COAL WATCH: The Charleston Gazette took a look this weekend at the impact big coal companies might have on the fall campaign, with a story focusing on the West Virginia House race between Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall and GOP challenger Spike Maynard: “Last month, Roger Nicholson, senior vice president of the Scott Depot-based International Coal Group, sent e-mails to other mining executives suggesting they take advantage of the decision allowing companies or unions to fund independent political committees. Nicholson's e-mail said he had 'discussions' with executives from ICG, Massey Energy, Alliance Resource Partners and Natural Resource Partners about raising money for Maynard, a former state Supreme Court Justice who switched his registration from Democrat to Republican in January. Rahall received campaign donations from executives at several other coal companies, including: Peabody Energy, Consolidation Coal, Arch Coal and Patriot Coal. When asked Friday whether ICG has actually formed a committee and raised money for Maynard, company spokesman Ira Gamm declined to comment. Mik Carpenter, Maynard's campaign manager, did not respond to telephone messages left on Friday and Saturday. Carpenter also did not respond to an e-mail.” http://bit.ly/bhp29Y

CODA -- QUOTE OF THE DAY: “J.D. Hayworth is deader than Elvis.” -- McCain spokesman Brian Rogers http://yhoo.it/cPiO0t

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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