Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Chamber backing Portman, Stivers - Monday stakes: Who has the most to lose? - Steele heads to Guam - PPP: Alaska's competitive - How Rick Scott spent it - Buck donates to Romanoff
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2010 05:39:51 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked])

POLITICO SNEAK PEEK - CHAMBER TO OHIO: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is putting its muscle behind two top Republican candidates in the state of Ohio today, formally backing Rob Portman's open-seat Senate campaign and trumpeting its endorsement of former state Sen. Steve Stivers in the race against Democratic Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy. Chamber vice president Bill Miller will announce the group's support for Stivers at the Ohio Chamber of Commerce in Columbus, with Stivers's wife, Karen, accepting the endorsement (the candidate has been called up for military duty and won't be in attendance.) Then, at 3 p.m., the Chamber will endorse Portman at the Columbus-area auto supplier TriTex.

The pro-business giant plans to kick off a voter education push in Ohio, including a renewed investment in television ads promoting Portman's job-creation proposals. The main thrust of the Chamber's ad: “Ohio's unemployment's at a 27-year high and about the only thing growing is government. It's time for new ideas. Rob Portman has a plan to get Ohio working again.” Watch it here. http://bit.ly/dCEhty

As David Vitter coasts, Blanche Lincoln pinches pennies and the wave threatens Adrian Fenty, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

MONDAY STAKES - There are just 64 days left before Nov. 2. Here's Score's weekly list of the candidates and campaign actors who have the most to gain or lose in the next few days:

(1) President Barack Obama, whose party is depending on him for a much, much stronger economic message on his first week back from vacation and ahead of Friday's jobs report; (2) Alaska Senate candidate Joe Miller, who needs his political operation to hand in a first-rate performance - as in, no more dumb tweets - as the late-arriving GOP Senate primary ballots get counted; (3) New Hampshire Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne, who won the coveted Union Leader endorsement this weekend and needs every bit of momentum he can get from it; (4) Former New York Rep. Rick Lazio, who just got beaten up and written off by the Daily News, even as he still faces a challenging GOP primary for governor; (5) New Jersey Democrats, who have the rare opportunity to land a clean hit on Gov. Chris Christie thanks to the ongoing flap over a botched “Race to the Top” application.

WRAPPING UP THE WEEKEND - Louisiana held its primary elections on Saturday and West Virginians chose the nominees for the special Senate election there. The results: Louisiana Sen. David Vitter beat his GOP primary challenger by an even larger margin - 80 percentage points - than Rep. Charlie Melancon won the Democratic Senate nomination. … West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin and Republican mining executive John Raese won their parties' Senate nominations with 73 percent and 71 percent of the vote, respectively. … Louisiana state Rep. Cedric Richmond, the DCCC-backed candidate against GOP Rep. Joseph Cao, won the 2nd District House primary with 61 percent of the vote and avoided a runoff. … Conservative attorney Jeff Landry nearly defeated former state House Speaker Hunt Downer in the GOP primary for Melancon's open House seat, taking 49.6 percent of the vote to Downer's 36.1 percent. The two will face each other again in an Oct. 2 runoff.

ALASKA UPDATE - PPP'S TAKE: The Alaska Senate race could be competitive if Joe Miller and Democratic Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams are the two parties' nominees, or if Sen. Lisa Murkowski bolts the Republican Party to run as a Libertarian, according to Public Policy Polling. PPP's Tom Jensen: “Miller leads Scott McAdams 47-39. … The reason for the closeness of the race is Miller's unpopularity. 52% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of while only 36% see him positively. Democrats (84%) are almost universal in their dislike of him and independents array strongly against him as well by a 54/32 margin. … In a three way contest with Murkowski running as the Libertarian candidate Miller leads but with only 38% to 34% for Murkowski and 22% for McAdams. Democrats have been hopeful that Murkowski will run on the assumption she would split the Republican vote but her supporters actually go 47-23 for McAdams in a two way contest with Miller.” http://bit.ly/9wf7f7

EYES ON THE PRIZE - STEELE TO GUAM: RNC Chairman Michael Steele plans to visit the Pacific Rim less than two months before Election Day, according to Guam Gov. Felix Camacho's office. Steele will arrive on Sept. 7, Camacho said in a statement, explaining: “The Republican slate for office this year is incredibly strong and I am confident that Chairman Steele's visit will help the Republican Party secure the necessary resources we need to regain control of the Governor's office as well as a majority in the Guam Legislature.” http://bit.ly/aNU1kq

COUNTDOWN TO SEPT. 14 - N.H. WATCH: There's only one big, multi-primary day left on the calendar, when eight states go to the polls to choose their nominees. New Hampshire's Republican Senate primary is one of the hottest contests on Sept. 14, and underdog conservative Ovide Lamontagne just got a late boost in the form of an enthusiastic endorsement from the Union Leader newspaper. Writes publisher Joseph W. McQuaid: “He is not the flashiest candidate. He certainly is not the richest. He isn't the favorite of the bigtime professional pols or the Washington crowd. Ovide is just a smart-as-a-whip, honest, hard-working son of New Hampshire who says what he believes.” The paper's been endorsing Lamontagne in his bids for office going back more than a decade - it supported his insurgent primary challenge to GOP Rep. Bill Zeliff in 1992 - and it remains to be seen what kind of mojo it can give him this time around. http://bit.ly/ct8lqI

FROM ONE INSURGENT TO ANOTHER: It's said that 90 percent of life is showing up. For Colorado Senate candidate Ken Buck, 90 percent of creating an awkward situation is showing up at Andrew Romanoff's birthday party. The Denver Post reports: “Buck decided to pay former Democratic primary Senate candidate Andrew Romanoff a birthday visit - and help retire some of his $130,000 in campaign debt. Romanoff was gracious, shaking Ken's hand and smiling, quietly saying he liked Ken and appreciates all the contributions he can get. … At one point, a group of women encircled Buck and pressed him on his abortion views - he is pro-life, even in the case of rape and incest. Another group started chanting Get Buck Out! Get Buck Out!' Buck said he came by because he met Romanoff on the campaign trail a couple of times and 'I have a great deal of respect for him and his leadership.' He gave him a Tea Party pin and an undisclosed amount of money to help pay off his campaign debt.” http://bit.ly/8ZKQs3

SCORE'S TAKE: Sure, it was a stunt - but it's the kind of stunt that shows why Buck is a more capable, confident politician than Sharron Angle and Rand Paul, the two conservative insurgents to whom he's most often compared.

HOUSE RACE MUST-READ - POSTCARD FROM MISSOURI - “Skelton waging military campaign,” David A. Lieb, AP: “U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton has launched a military campaign for Congress. The west-central Missouri Democrat, currently in his 34th year in Washington, is seeking re-election against Republican Vicky Hartzler by emphasizing his commitment to military troops and veterans. It might seem an odd tactic this year, considering most candidate[s] around the country are focused on the economy or issues such as federal spending, deficits, bailouts, health care and energy policies. … Skelton, the House Armed Services Committee chairman, wants to keep the political battle on his own turf, over issues on which he has expertise. … His first two ads both featured testimonials _ one from the mother of a Marine, the other from an Army veteran _ about how much they appreciate Skelton's defense of the troops. The third ad, which began airing Aug. 18, questions Hartzler's support of the military.” http://bit.ly/cFbG5M

POLL OF THE DAY - MARTINEZ'S EDGE: Dona Ana County prosecutor Susana Martinez has taken the lead against Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish in the New Mexico governor's race, according to a poll commissioned by the Albuquerque Journal. The survey, taken by the Albuquerque firm Research and Polling Inc., shows Martinez drawing support from 45 percent of voters, versus 39 percent for Denish. Outgoing Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson looks like a drag on Denish: his approval rating is down to 33 percent and 62 percent of voters who give him negative marks plan to vote for Martinez. http://bit.ly/9KGwJM and http://bit.ly/ahJrec

HOW SCOTT SPENT IT: Rick Scott says he hasn't set a limit on what he'll shell out in order to win the Florida governor's mansion. And the Miami Herald's Marc Caputo has a detailed look at exactly what that no-holds-barred approach allowed Scott to do in the Republican primary: “The average TV viewer in the Jacksonville area saw a Scott ad 198 times between April and the Aug. 24 primary. Viewers in Miami-Dade and Broward counties -- Florida's most expensive media market -- likely saw Scott's spots 150 times. In Tampa Bay and the Orlando area: 266 and 265 times, respectively. In nearly every city, Republicans likely heard Scott's message via the $1 million he spent on conservative talk radio, frequently listened to by six in 10 GOP primary voters. That was on top of the one million phone calls placed to voters and the staggering number of glossy fliers -- 28 -- sent to more than two million GOP voters in general. The campaign specifically targeted soldiers overseas, women and even gun owners with specially designed messages. … Scott delegated so much responsibility to his advisors that, in the waning weeks of the campaign, he said he had no idea how much and where they spent his money on TV. In one case a media buyer plunked down a $105,000 check at a Tampa broadcaster's office and said: 'We'll take whatever's available.'” http://bit.ly/bqNwTs

LINCOLN PRE-MORTEM: Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln still has a financial advantage over Republican challenger John Boozman, but it may be too late for that money to make a difference, the Arkansas News suggests. “Lincoln faced a tough primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter earlier this year and has spent $9 million this election cycle, but some say she was too thrifty for too long. 'She's made a spectacular mistake in strategy in waiting to hold money for the end, when the definition of Blanche Lincoln started back in August of last year,' Republican political consultant Bill Vickery said. … 'I think that her campaign violated one of the primary rules of politics,' said Democratic political consultant Debbie Wilhite.” http://bit.ly/drXOz5

CUOMO BY DEFAULT? The New York Daily News endorsed state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo for governor on Sunday, in an editorial that spent more time trashing New York's Republican gubernatorial candidates than praising the Democrat. To the videotape: “There is no point in taking further stock of the candidates vying for the Republican nomination in next month's primary. Rick Lazio and Carl Paladino have been that awful. … [H]opes have been dashed that New Yorkers would have a choice between a Democrat and a Republican with robust competing visions and credible potential for delivering on them. Repeat: Rick Lazio and Carl Paladino have been that awful.” http://bit.ly/aty1OB

CODA - CLOSE TO HOME: Change may come to Washington well before Nov. 2, if D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty doesn't turn around his flagging campaign for reelection. Fenty is 17 points down to D.C. Council Chairman Vincent Gray ahead of the Sept. 14 Democratic primary, according to a Washington Post poll. That margin is among likely voters - among all Democratic voters, Fenty trails by an only slightly less daunting 13 points. http://bit.ly/cSh4PU

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