Subject: Fwd: Re; Australian Election Status
From: "Michael Andrews" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>, "Neil Callahan" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2010 10:36:49 -0400

I meant to have you on original but hit send to quickly after a call.

Michael

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Michael Andrews <[email-masked]>
> Date: August 30, 2010 10:34:19 AM EDT
> To: Thad Brown <[email-masked]>, Curt Hastings <[email-masked]>
> Subject: Fwd: Re; Australian Election Status
>
>
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
>> From: "Rowe, Trevor" <[email-masked]>
>> Date: August 29, 2010 9:39:36 PM EDT
>> To: <[email-masked]>
>> Subject: Re; Australian Election Status
>>
>>
>> Dear Michael,
>>
>> The expected final count in the House of Representatives is 72  
>> seats for ALP, 72 seats Coalition, 1 WA National Party member who  
>> is planning to sit on the cross benches, 1 Green and 4 Independents  
>> (Figure 1). Assuming that the WA National supports the Coalition  
>> and the Green supports the ALP, then either Party only requires 3  
>> of the Independents to form Government. The Independents, while  
>> appearing notionally conservative, support the national broadband  
>> network (NBN) so their decision on which Party they will support  
>> forming government remains uncertain and may not be resolved until  
>> next week.
>>
>>
>> The minerals resource rent tax could be passed under an ALP  
>> government as it is likely that 2 of the Gang 3 plus the new  
>> independent and the Greens likely would support it. But under a  
>> Coalition government the tax would not proceed.The NBN is likely to  
>> proceed regardless of which Party forms government because the  
>> Coalition most likely will need to compromise to gain the support  
>> of the Independents. It is too early to know how the major Parties  
>> will accommodate the Independents’ “new paradigm” on food security,  
>> foreign investment, water, and other policies that bear on regional  
>> development.
>>
>> While the rhetoric of the Independents and the Green is the  
>> formation of a stable government, the reality is that a minority  
>> government requires 3 of the 4 Independents to vote with it on  
>> every single Parliamentary Bill. The markets face a more uncertain  
>> political backdrop. The markets will look through this uncertainty  
>> provided key macro policy commitments remain in place, including  
>> returning the budget to surplus by FY13.
>>
>> Best wishes
>> Trevor
>>
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>