Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Carnahan escalates Blunt attacks - Brady gets TPaw, Mitt, Rudy - DGA to Barbour: Shun Scott - Gitmo prosecutor defends Ellsworth - Gallup shows GOP up 10 - Duffy is DCCC's first target
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2010 05:29:52 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked])

FIRST IN SCORE - MUG SHOT: Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan will continue her double-barreled assault on Republican Senate nominee Roy Blunt today, unveiling a new commercial that ties Blunt to corruption in Washington and describes him as a tool of special interests. So far, Carnahan's TV hits on Blunt have focused on his support for the 2008 bank bailout - but this ad, titled “Mug,” attacks him from a different angle. “Congressman Roy Blunt: He got caught trying to insert a secret deal for tobacco giant Phillip Morris into a bill just days after company executives gave him over $30,000,” the ad begins. “He voted to weaken the rules on lobbyist gifts, rode corporate jets provided by a defense contractor convicted of bribery and he's taken more money from lobbyists than any member of Congress.” The increasingly familiar kicker: “Roy Blunt: He's the very worst of Washington.” Watch it here. http://bit.ly/bUmcln

SEPTEMBER SNEAK PEEK - BRADY'S BIG GUNS: A series of national GOP leaders plan to parade through Illinois over the next month to campaign for Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady, according to a senior Brady campaign official. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty attended - and wowed - a small fundraiser for Brady last night. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney plans to campaign for Brady in September. And former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is due to make a trip for Brady on Sept. 13, giving the downstate legislator a seal of approval from one of the few big names in urban Republican politics.

The influx of Republican heavyweights comes amid a rough patch for Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, who parted ways little more than a week ago with the national consulting firm AKPD Message and Media. It's also another sign of the GOP's commitment to Illinois, along with the NRSC's pledge to deploy $3.4 million for Rep. Mark Kirk's Senate campaign. http://politi.co/bXFvnx

As Dems draw a bead on Sean Duffy, Jeb Bush hits the trail again and Sarah Palin goes Midwest to the future, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

TODAY - DEAR GOV. BARBOUR - Democrats are bracketing RGA Chairman Haley Barbour and former Gov. Jeb Bush's unity events in Florida this week, with a cutting letter from the DGA asking Barbour not to campaign with gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott. DGA executive director Nathan Daschle writes - in a message addressed to Barbour and copied to Bush, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Florida GOP Chairman John Thrasher - that both parties should have a “commitment … to do what is right and make sure we punish those who victimize seniors or steal from taxpayers.” “As you all know, Rick Scott made millions leading the company that paid $1.7 billion in fines, the most ever for Medicare fraud. He is the type of person who is comfortable with pleading the fifth 75 times in a deposition,” Daschle continues. “[T]his the first time in our history that we have reached across the aisle to make this request. … Rick Scott represents the worst of American politics; he's a multimillionaire who became rich from a firm that stole money from taxpayers and seniors. If this doesn't disqualify Rick Scott from being governor, you must ask yourselves: What would?” Read the full message here. http://politi.co/cuRvfQ

ELLSWORTH'S COUNTER-PUNCH: Indiana Senate candidate Brad Ellsworth will push back today on former GOP Sen. Dan Coats's first negative ad, which attacked Ellsworth on the issue of Guantanamo Bay closure. The Democrat has been trying to turn the table on Coats, criticizing him for his former lobbying firm's ties to the Republic of Yemen. And Ellsworth will get some backup on an early afternoon conference call: Retired Air Force Col. Mo Davis, who served as the chief Guantanamo prosecutor until 2008, will speak up on Ellsworth's behalf.

IF YOU READ ONE POLL THIS WEEK - THE SURGE IS WORKING: Congressional Republicans have surged to a 10-point advantage over Democrats in Gallup's generic ballot test, taking a lead of 51 percent to 41 percent among registered voters. Frank Newport calls that gap “the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress. … Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be 'very' enthusiastic about voting, and now hold -- by one point -- the largest such advantage of the year.” http://bit.ly/bRZ6e9

MORE - NEWPORT'S 'BOTTOM LINE' - “The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall's midterm congressional elections. Gallup's generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost. Republicans' presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major 'wave' election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House.”

FIRST BLOOD: The DCCC has launched its first attack ad of the general election, targeting Wisconsin congressional candidate Sean Duffy with a spot charging that the Republican wants to “gamble seniors' retirement on the stock market.” “Politicians like Sean Duffy just don't get it. When we should be fighting to protect Social Security, Sean Duffy backed a plan to privatize it,” the narrator declares, referring to Duffy's positive statements about Rep. Paul Ryan's budget proposals. The ad continues: “Remember the crash? Families could have lost nearly 40 percent of their retirement benefits. Forty percent.” Duffy's campaign issued a statement calling the attack “flat out lies” and a sign that Democrats are “about to lose” retiring Rep. David Obey's seat. Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/a7naKE

A DOOR CLOSES IN ALASKA: If Sen. Lisa Murkowski ends up losing the GOP primary to challenger Joe Miller, she'll have one less backup option after Alaska's Libertarian Party preemptively decided to deny her the ballot line. From the Anchorage Daily News: “The five-member executive committee of the party had an emergency meeting yesterday to discuss it and came to a unanimous decision. [Chairman Scott] Kohlhaas said Murkowski or her campaign staffers never approached the party about running as a Libertarian but that there'd been so much speculation that party officials decided to act. 'Let's put this to rest; it's not happening,' Kohlhaas said.” http://bit.ly/9ZIIAK

2012 TALKER - PALIN TO IOWA: The former Alaska governor plans to address the Iowa GOP's Ronald Reagan Dinner next month, the Iowa Republican website reports. Palin, who endorsed former Gov. Terry Branstad earlier this year in Iowa's gubernatorial primary, is due in the state on Sept. 17. http://bit.ly/cyITjo

BUZZING THIS WEEK - A LIVE ONE? The first post-primary poll from the West Virginia Senate race shows Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin with a lead over Republican mining executive John Raese - but a lead that's narrowed rapidly over the last month. In Rasmussen's automated survey, Manchin was six points ahead of Raese, leading 48 percent to 42 percent. In late July, Manchin was up by 16 points over Raese, who has already used his substantial fortune to start advertising on television. http://bit.ly/cNHQMU

DUCK AND COVER: Florida Gov. Charlie Crist is taking a pass on the first Senate debate of the general election season, scheduled for next Sunday on NBC's “Meet the Press.” Though both Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek will participate, Crist declined, citing Labor Day commitments. Said spokesman Danny Kanner: “The governor has long planned Labor Day events, when he'll be out talking to working families.” http://bit.ly/bMFzYW

CLINTON ALERT: The 42nd president of the United States is going to bat for New York Rep. Mike McMahon, holding a rally for the freshman Democrat on Staten Island this Friday. The week after, he'll be in Nashville to marshal support for underdog Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mike McWherter, the son of former Gov. and Clinton friend Ned McWherter. http://bit.ly/b4tqlI and http://bit.ly/9p4rl7

CROSSING THE TEA: The Michigan Tea Party, a group Republicans have accused of being a Democratic front, has been denied ballot access by a state court of appeals. The Detroit News reports: “The court today rejected a request by the group's attorney to force the state to put their names before voters. … The Michigan Board of Canvassers tied 2-2 last week in a motion to put The Tea Party on the ballot, meaning they would not appear. ... The Tea Party, led by UAW retiree Mark Steffek, had sought to put 38 candidates on the ballot, ranging from county commissioner to attorney general.” The ruling is a boon to several GOP candidates: Tea Party hopefuls had planned to run in the 1st District and 7th District House races, potentially undermining Republican takeover opportunities. http://bit.ly/95qu1Q

KEEPING THE STORY ALIVE: Wisconsin Senate candidate Ron Johnson's plastics company, Pacur, appears to have revised its online corporate history after a damaging story scrutinized its early use of government support. From the Journal-Sentinel: “A Madison TV story said last week that Johnson's plastics factory paid for construction of a railroad line years ago with the help of a federal grant - even though the candidate is a sharp critic of government help for private firms. Johnson's campaign responded by saying the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development made the grant in March 1979, months before Pacur was even founded. The only problem with Johnson's timeline, however, was Pacur's own website, which put its founding in 1977. … But by Wednesday - voila! - Johnson's company website had been brought in line with statements by Johnson's campaign.” Johnson's campaign denied a connection. http://bit.ly/c73AGb

RACE TO THE COX: Former Rep. Rick Lazio wasn't New York Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox's first choice for governor. But with the Republican primary down to just Lazio and bombastic Buffalo developer Carl Paladino, Cox is emphasizing that Lazio was the fair-and-square winner of the state party's convention process. “Rick is a credible and experienced candidate,” Cox wrote in a letter. “He is a strong advocate for our Republican values and has the ability and experience to run an effective state-wide campaign and to govern New York in accordance with those values.” http://bit.ly/9YdU4O

CODA - CONVINCING SPIN OF THE DAY: “Blanche Lincoln Stands Up for Arkansas Ag Producers While John Boozman Stands With New York Times” - the title of an entry on Lincoln's website http://bit.ly/cWslan

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