Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: High noon for Western Dems - Crossroads hammers Reid, Carnahan - EMILY's List, allies bat for Kuster - Barbour defends lobbyist past - Clinton back to Arkansas - Rangel rallies for mosque
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2010 05:31:12 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked])

FIRST IN SCORE - NO SANCTUARY: Even the West Coast is no refuge for Democratic House members this cycle, according to a new wave of polling due out today from the American Action Forum. In 10 congressional districts across a half-dozen states where Democrats have been on the upswing since 2006, incumbents are now struggling to keep their heads above the water. The AAF-commissioned polling from the GOP firm Ayres McHenry tested 4,000 voters from Aug. 23-29 - 400 in each of the House districts - and found voters favoring GOP House candidates by a seven-point margin, 41 percent to 34 percent. Sixty-eight percent of voters said the country is on the wrong track, compared with 24 percent who said it's moving in the right direction. Going district by district, Republican nominees led in FIVE of the ten House races and Democrats led in THREE, while another two were tied or almost tied. Memo here. http://bit.ly/dxVt75

THE AMERICAN ACTION FORUM SCOREBOARD - TRAILING: Democrats are behind in Arizona's 1st and 5th Districts, where Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell are both down by six points; and in Colorado's 3rd and 4th Districts, where Reps. John Salazar and Betsy Markey are down by eight and 11 points, respectively. In Nevada's 3rd District, Rep. Dina Titus narrowly trails challenger Joe Heck by three points. LEADING: Rep. Martin Heinrich is up seven points in New Mexico's 1st District, Rep. Kurt Schrader leads by eight in Oregon's 5th and Rep. Loretta Sanchez is ahead by a narrower, four-point margin over challenger Van Tran in California's 47th. AND - DEADLOCKED: The race for Arizona's 8th District is exactly tied, with Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and challenger Jesse Keller both drawing 46 percent support, while Rep. Jerry McNerney is taking 44 percent to Republican David Harmer's 45 percent in the 11th District of California. Get the full data here. http://bit.ly/bMoYxp

As Bill Clinton heads home, Sean Duffy pushes back and Michael Bloomberg contemplates mortality, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

SCORE PREVIEW - CROSSROADS ASSAULT CONTINUES: Crossroads GPS, an arm of the conservative campaign group American Crossroads, has put two new commercials into rotation in the Nevada and Missouri Senate races. The Nevada spot hammers Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for supporting the stimulus, using the John McCain- and Tom Coburn-authored list of the law's most objectionable projects to suggest that Reid's taken his eye off the economic ball. “Harry's stimulus sent nearly $2 million to California to collect ants - in Africa. Twenty-five million for new chair lifts and snowmaking in Vermont. Almost three hundred thousand to Texas to study weather - on Venus,” the narrator says. “Meanwhile, back in Nevada, we still have the highest unemployment and record foreclosures. Really, Harry, how about some help for Nevada?” Watch the Nevada spot here: http://bit.ly/9Eqvly

MORE: In Missouri, Crossroads GPS ties Democratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan to national health care reform, urging her to support a state-level challenge led by Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder instead of “the Obamacare law that could raise our health insurance premiums and cut billions from Medicare.” Here's the Missouri ad: http://bit.ly/aSyx3W (Crossroads has also been running ads in Colorado http://bit.ly/9GtduY and Kentucky. http://bit.ly/blpyY8.)

COUNTDOWN TO SEPT. 14 - STAND FOR KUSTER: EMILY's List founder Ellen Malcolm, along with leaders from Planned Parenthood of Northern New England and NARAL Pro-Choice New Hampshire, will appear in Concord this afternoon with congressional candidate Ann McLane Kuster to give her a boost ahead of this month's Democratic House primary. Kuster's running for the Democratic nomination in outgoing Rep. Paul Hodes's district; her opponent is Katrina Swett, a New Hampshire Democratic fixture who has supported some restrictions on abortion rights. The Emily's List-led Women Vote! initiative is hitting homes in the 2nd Congressional District with a mailer advertising Kuster's support from abortion-rights groups and declaring: “For pro-choice voters, there's only one choice: Ann McLane Kuster.” (Historical footnote: Kuster's mother, Susan McLane, was a longtime Republican state legislator who supported abortion rights.) http://politi.co/biM5wd

CAMPAIGN CLICK: Louisiana Democrats are dropping a new installment of their video series, “Forgotten Crimes,” focused on Republican Sen. David Vitter's personal scandals. “Caught up with prostitution scandals in Washington D.C. and New Orleans, a Louisiana politician has been let off the hook,” the video begins. “We ask: How did this happen?” http://bit.ly/922eD5

THE BIG 2010 PICTURE - BELL TOLLS FOR CLASS OF '92: Control of the Senate could come down to a trio of Democratic senators who were never supposed to be vulnerable this year, POLITICO's Jonathan Martin reports. Now, Washington's Patty Murray, California's Barbara Boxer and Wisconsin's Russ Feingold are in the danger zone. “[P]ublic and private surveys all show [Feingold] narrowly trailing a rival who was previously a political unknown and only got in the race in May. 'He doesn't yet seem to get the environment he's operating in this time,' fretted a top Democratic official of Feingold. Feingold insisted that his '98 race was tougher than this contest, but he acknowledged: 'We're on the front lines here.' … Murray, like Feingold and Boxer, has had the good fortune to run in 1992 and 1998, election years that were good to Democrats nationally. In 2004, the Bush re-election campaign didn't contest Washington state. … [O]peratives from both parties said the [California] race mostly hinges on whether [Republican Carly] Fiorina dips into her own fortune for TV ads-and how much she's willing to spend. 'We believe that we'll have the resources necessary to be competitive, but we believe Boxer will outspend us,' is all Fiorina campaign manager Marty Wilson said.” http://politi.co/9WF18g

LAST NIGHT - “Boxer, Fiorina spar in first debate,” from POLITICO's Emily Schultheis in Moraga, Calif. Teaser: [I]in their first televised debate Wednesday night, both candidates unleashed a new round of vitriol as they sparred over who is the real 'fighter' for Californians.” http://politi.co/aC05x8

A LIVE ONE? PART TWO: For the second time this week, the ubiquitous Scott Rasmussen is out with a poll showing just a six-point gap separating the two parties in a Senate race that wasn't supposed to be competitive. On Monday, it was the West Virginia race between Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin and Republican mining executive John Raese. Now, Rasmussen shows surprise Alaska GOP nominee Joe Miller up only six points over Democratic Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, leading 50 percent to 44 percent. http://bit.ly/clGmS8

TRY THIS AT HOME - Ask yourself which of those races is more likely to be competitive in October: The one where a well-funded Republican is running against a powerful, experienced Dem in a conservative state, or the one where a capable Democrat running in hostile territory lucked out enough to draw an amateurish, hard-line opponent? Now you know which party's theory of the case is more persuasive to you.

2012 TALKER: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour says he hasn't decided whether to run for president, but he's already test-driving ways of talking about his background as a super-lobbyist in the context of a national campaign. “I will tell you this -- the next president of the United States on January 21, 2013 - - is going to start lobbying,” Barbour said in an interview. “He's going to be lobbying Congress, he's going to be lobbying other countries. He's going to be lobbying the business community. He's going to be lobbying the labor unions, the governors, because that's what Presidents do, and I feel like it's an advantage for me to have the chance to do that.” http://bit.ly/cCRzbY

RANGEL'S MOSQUE BET: New York Rep. Charlie Rangel, with less than two weeks left on the clock in the primary fight of his life, didn't just defend the planned Islamic center in Lower Manhattan - he attended a rally in support of the project. He told reporters: “A lot of people don't speak for New Yorkers. Of all of the places to have this, this is the last place that we would believe that we would not have tolerance of religion. Not in New York City. Not in my town.” http://bit.ly/acLBG7

42 GOES HOME: Former President Bill Clinton is making a campaign trip to his native state of Arkansas next week, appearing with Sen. Blanche Lincoln and open-seat House candidate Chad Causey. Both events are scheduled for Wednesday, Sept. 8, in Little Rock - a date coincides with the anniversary of Lincoln taking over the Senate Agriculture Committee, according to the Arkansas News. http://bit.ly/9GsAd3 and http://politi.co/cqNO5a

MEEK PICKS HIS TARGET: Florida Rep. Kendrick Meek is on the radio with commercials reminding voters of independent Gov. Charlie Crist's past as a partisan Republican. “I'm a Jeb Bush Republican,” Crist says in one clip featured in the ad. “I was impressed at Gov. Palin being picked.” The narrator warns listeners: “Don't be fooled. If Charlie Crist gets to Washington, his heart will lead him right back where he belongs.” Meek has already run robo-calls branding Crist as a crypto-Republican, and seems determined not to go quiet in the aftermath of a financially draining primary with billionaire libel-suit enthusiast Jeff Greene. http://bit.ly/9isduI

HE'S A LUMBERJACK AND HE'S OKAY: Wisconsin congressional candidate Sean Duffy, the first Republican to draw an independent expenditure attack from the DCCC, is up with his own debut ad. It's a positive spot that makes no reference to his own background as a reality television star. “My family settled here in the 1880s. They were pioneers and lumberjacks,” Duffy says in the ad. “I worked my way though school competing in lumberjack competitions, became a special prosecutor, and a District Attorney. … I'll take on Washington, cut the spending, and support our small businesses.” Democrats launched their Social Security-themed attack earlier this week on Duffy, who is competing with state Sen. Julie Lassa for retiring Rep. David Obey's seat. http://bit.ly/b8evnD

LANDRIEU ATTACKS ANGLE: That's New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu - Sen. Mary Landrieu's brother - who tore into the Nevada GOP's Senate nominee for saying she'd have voted against sending federal support to Landrieu's city in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. “I honestly wondered aloud how anyone like this could actually be serious about wanting to serve in the United States Senate,” he said in a statement. “From her indifference to the suffering after Hurricane Katrina to siding with foreign oil companies like BP over her fellow Americans, Sharron Angle has proven that she is simply too extreme and dangerous to serve in the United States Senate.” http://bit.ly/ayFwPq

NEXT CYCLE - ATTN. SCOTT BROWN: City Year founder and former Massachusetts Senate candidate Alan Khazei played coy Wednesday on the possibility of another Senate bid in 2012. “I haven't ruled it out. I have a vision. We'll see,” he said on a conference call to promote his new book, according to a Twitter report. http://bit.ly/ah2T9Q

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: “If I died. … I suppose total incapacitation would also.” - New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, describing the circumstances under which he would leave office early. http://politi.co/cBsKpH

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