Subject: Tea Party Express: O'Donnell Trails By 2% Among Likeliest Voters
From: "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>, "BB" <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 17:25:51 -0400

Tea Party Express: O'Donnell Trails By 2% Among Likeliest Voters
September 3, 2010 1:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | Share This
By Jeremy P. Jacobs
Christine O'Donnell is trailing Rep. Mike Castle by only 2% among voters most likely to turnout in the Delaware Senate GOP primary, according to a Tea Party Express poll.
The poll, obtained by Hotline On Call, found that among GOP voters who indicated they are most likely to vote -- or "10s" in polling lingo -- Castle leads O'Donnell 43% to 41%.
The Tea Party Express released the top line of the poll on Thursday. That showed O'Donnell trailing Castle by nearly 6%, 43.7% to 38%.
These new numbers suggest that Castle is significantly more vulnerable than originally believed.
However, it is worth taking these numbers with a grain of salt. The poll was conducted by NSON Opinion Research with live interviewers. It surveyed 300 DE Republican voters and has a margin of error of +/- 5.7%.
It is also worth noting that the survey was conducted Aug. 31-Sept. 1. Since then, the media scrutiny on O'Donnell has intensified and she has committed some missteps. Most notably, she gave a disastrous interview on Dan Gaffney's radio show on Thursday. There are also new reports that O'Donnell only recently earned her college degree, 17 years after she left the school.
However, the Tea Party Express has a strong track record with long-shot candidates. Most recently, they helped propel Joe Miller to his upset of Sen. Lisa Murkowski in last week's GOP primar in AK. They were also involved in Sharron Angle's primary win the Nevada GOP primary.
The Tea Party Express clearly sees an opportunity in Delaware and they are investing heavily in this race. They are reportedly going to spend at least $250K on their first ad buy, airing a TV ad. 

Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners, LLC
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