Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Dem poll shows Murray strong - Blunt vs. Obama in new ad - Monday stakes: Brown, Binnie in the hot seat - Van Hollen rips NYT - Obama for Blumenthal, Sestak - Byrd family swats Raese
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 6 Sep 2010 06:01:33 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked])

SCORE EXCLUSIVE I - MURRAY'S MARGIN: Washington Sen. Patty Murray currently leads Republican challenger Dino Rossi by five points and has just barely reached the 50-percent mark, according to a poll conducted for the DSCC by the Democratic firm Fairbank, Maslin. Murray leads Rossi, 50 percent to 45 percent, and the survey shows her with a fairly solid base of support. Voters say they approve of her job performance by an 11-point margin, 53 percent to 42 percent. Fifty-five percent say they have a favorable impression of Murray, compared with 40 percent who say their impression is unfavorable. Rossi's numbers are more evenly split, with his favorable rating at 47 percent and his negatives at 46 percent. The poll tested 968 likely voters from Aug. 25-31.

Murray's race is one of three Senate contests in Democratic-leaning states - along with the late-emerging races in California and Wisconsin - that could determine the balance of power in the chamber. It's expected to be a tight campaign through November and the new DSCC poll has the contest three points closer than it was in April, when a Fairbank, Maslin poll gave Murray an eight-point lead. http://bit.ly/dec74q

SCORE EXCLUSIVE II - TAKIN' CARE OF BUSINESS: Missouri Rep. Roy Blunt is going up with a new, jobs-themed ad for his Senate campaign, telling the story of a small business owner named Laurie Psaris to make the case for his economic plan. “Laurie's grandfather started Orpheum Cleaners in 1918. Right now, she'd like to hire two more workers,” the Republican candidate says. “But the uncertain costs of government-run health care and job-killing ideas like a new energy tax are destroying job growth. Robin Carnahan supports the Obama agenda. I don't.” The ad sets up a contrast between Missouri and Washington, and puts Blunt on the right side of that divide even as Democrats try to define him as a Beltway insider. The spot also includes a staple of the GOP's 2010 contrast advertising: An image of Carnahan standing next to President Barack Obama. Watch it here. http://bit.ly/9s3S5K

As Chris Van Hollen protests, Roy Barnes goes rogue and we ponder the campaign year that might have been, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

MONDAY STAKES - LABOR DAY EDITION - It's finally here: the holiday that traditionally launches the fall general election campaign. And there are just 57 days - less time than has elapsed since July 4 - before Election Day. Here's Morning Score's weekly list of the candidates and campaign groups that have the most to gain or lose in the next few days:

(1) The “triage” Democrats: House members named in a weekend New York Times story as the lawmakers most likely to be left for dead by their party, who have a matter of days or weeks to prove that they're still viable; (2) California Attorney General Jerry Brown, who's expected to crack open his campaign account for television commercials and needs every dollar to go a long way against Meg Whitman; (3) New Hampshire Senate candidate Bill Binnie, a moderate self-funder who has so far been unable to overtake GOP frontrunner Kelly Ayotte, and now faces a challenge for second place from conservative attorney Ovide Lamontagne; (4) Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard, who has a rare and probably narrow opening to make up ground against Republican Gov. Jan Brewer thanks to Brewer's infamous, unforced debate error; (5) New York Rep. Charlie Rangel's primary challengers, who could very well split the anti-incumbent vote next Tuesday and allow Rangel to claim renomination despite his ethics problems.

TODAY - From the White House guidance: “In the afternoon, the President will travel to Milwaukee, Wisconsin. … Later, the President will deliver remarks on the economy at the Milwaukee Laborfest..” AND: “In the morning, the Vice President will travel to Toledo, Ohio, to participate in Labor Day festivities with Governor Ted Strickland.”

COMING SOON - DEFENDING THE NORTHEAST: President Obama will campaign for two of his party's top Senate candidates in mid-September, traveling to Stamford on Sept. 16 for Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal and then to Philadelphia four days later for Rep. Joe Sestak. The New York Times also reported that Obama plans on visiting Minnesota and Florida in the next six weeks to help House Democrats. http://bit.ly/dzC3nV and http://bit.ly/bBx6MI

ONE PLACE HE MIGHT NOT GO: In Georgia, former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes offered a brutal assessment of Obama's signature accomplishment, health care reform, warning that the law could be “financially devastating” for states. Barnes also told an AP reporter that the lack of bipartisanship on health care was “the greatest failure, modern failure, of political leadership in my lifetime.” http://bit.ly/cyIFOb

LAOR DAY CAMPAIGN CLICK: The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers is launching a web ad urging jobless Americans to vote in November. The video blasts Republicans for not supporting unemployment benefits and shows a clip of Sen. Orrin Hatch suggesting drug testing for the unemployed. “These guys don't give a damn about us. They'll let us all go under,” the narrator says. “We know who picked our pockets, who stole our future. We're jobless - not toothless. … Bite back: Vote.” Watch it here. http://bit.ly/9nrRLI

2010 THOUGHT EXPERIMENT - POLITICO'S “Top 10 what-ifs of the midterm elections” - From your Morning Score correspondent: “[T]he campaign didn't have to look like this. It's not just the big-picture inflection points - like the White House's decision to pursue health care reform or the congressional GOP's lockstep vote against the stimulus - that have determined the course of the election year. It was also the personal choices or screw-ups of individual candidates. … What if Doug Hoffman had been a team player? … What if Mark Sanford hadn't self-destructed? … What if there had never been a Scott Brown? … What if Arlen Specter hadn't switched parties? … What if Barack Obama hadn't appointed Janet Napolitano to the Cabinet? … What if Sarah Palin had run for reelection? … What if there had been a 2009 special election in Illinois?” Read the rest here. http://politi.co/bQgINL

WHAT DID WE MISS? E-mail [email-masked] with your favorite alternative version of the 2010 campaign.

CATCH PHRASE OF THE WEEK -- “Brutal triage” - Brought to you by the Sunday New York Times, in a you-just-knew-it-was-coming story about Democratic plans to focus resources on a handful of steady House incumbents who may allow the party to retain a slim majority. On the list of members who might not make the cut: Mary Jo Kilroy, Frank Kratovil, Betsy Markey, Tom Perriello, Earl Pomeroy and John Spratt. From the story: “To hold the line against Republicans, the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi … called out Democrats who were delinquent on paying their party dues and instructed members with no re-election worries to tap into a combined $218 million from their campaign accounts to help save their majority. 'We need to know your commitment,' Ms. Pelosi wrote to lawmakers last week in a private letter, demanding that they call her within 72 hours to explain how they plan to help. She added, 'The day after the election, we do not want to have any regrets.'” http://nyti.ms/cayrbU

DEM PUSHBACK: DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen - quoted in the story saying, “We are going to have to win these races one by one” - issued a statement Sunday afternoon claiming that the “New York Times story erroneously suggests that the DCCC has decided not to allocate resources to specific campaigns. That simply is not the case. … The DCCC is heavily invested in these campaigns. In each campaign mentioned, the DCCC has provided and continues to provide support for field operations and other key campaign activities.” More CVH: “Every campaign cycle the DCCC and other campaign committees face difficult resource allocation decisions and this election cycle is no different. What is different is the kind of choice before the American people at this critical juncture.”

SIGN OF THE TIMES - WHERE THE MONEY IS: Some 126 businesses that supported Senate Democrats with employee and PAC donations in the 2008 cycle have moved into the Republican camp this year, according to an analysis by the Houston Chronicle. “That list is led by prominent Wall Street firms but includes energy companies, manufacturers, lobbying operations and other groups with a monetary stake in Capitol Hill deliberations. ... Their donations to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee have dropped 25 percent this year, to $1.67 million. … [Texas Sen. John] Cornyn, who became chairman of the Senate Republicans' campaign committee in November 2008, has aggressively courted business executives who are disappointed in Obama's performance and unhappy with the Democratic Congress' legislative agenda. … The Texan's team has managed to persuade roughly 26 percent of the 478 active political action committees that donated to the DSCC in 2008 to reduce or eliminate donations this year.” http://bit.ly/bI8oPo

COUNTDOWN TO SEPT. 14: Two New York primary challengers picked up major newspaper endorsements over the weekend, as Reshma Saujani, Rep. Carolyn Maloney's opponent, won the New York Daily News (“It's time to pump new blood into the tired New York delegation”), and Charlie Rangel challenger Joyce Johnson picked up the backing of the New York Times. The Times: “The biggest name in the race is Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV ….Powell, however, has done little in Albany, even by Albany's do-little standards. … The best of these alternatives is Joyce Johnson, who, while struggling in the primary, has been a strong advocate for women's rights and civil rights for many years.” http://bit.ly/cFSIk4 and http://nyti.ms/dC3VUB

PLUS - ONLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE: New Hampshire Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne is starting to get some of the scrutiny that comes with being taken seriously. In a story headlined “Lamontagne has some flip-flop explaining to do,” The Nashua Telegraph's Kevin Landrigan scrutinizes the Manchester lawyer's record on taxes and English-only laws. The fun part: “[D]uring his last run for public office… Lamontagne called the state law 'symbolic' and praised [Gov. Steve] Merrill for letting state officials speak French while dealing in international trade.” Lamontagne's campaign said that was a state issue distinct from whether English should be the national language. http://bit.ly/9Ixxyo

HOW NOT TO PLAY THE OBAMA CARD: West Virginia Senate candidate John Raese drew a rebuke from the family of the late Sen. Robert Byrd over the weekend. Raese is running an ad charging that his Democratic opponent, Gov. Joe Manchin, would support President Obama's agenda. The problem, AP explains, is that it features an image of Obama and Manchin “at the state Capitol ceremony marking Byrd's June 28 death. … 'That's a stock photo. We had no idea it was from the memorial service,' [Raese campaign manager Jim Dornan] said. But Byrd's family called for the campaign to withdraw the ad. 'This is a tasteless and insensitive act by Mr. Raese,' said a statement by the family of Byrd …'His act is insulting to the memory of Robert Byrd.'” http://bit.ly/bZEten Here's the ad. http://politi.co/9clefs

WHERE'S THE BOUNCE? Brian Murphy, the long-shot Republican candidate for governor of Maryland, barely registered a fundraising bump after receiving a surprise endorsement from Sarah Palin last month. He raised just $35,000 in an 18-day period that ended Aug. 29, according to the Washington Post - and $14,000 of that take was out of his own bank account. Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich took in $725,000 during that time and remains a strong favorite to win the GOP nomination. http://bit.ly/ciqeJb

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I listened equally to those who wanted me in this race and those who did not, and after internalizing that advice, I'm proud to say I'm in it to win it.” - Colorado gubernatorial candidate Dan Maes, whose name will appear on the ballot even after he lost the support of virtually every top Republican in his state. http://bit.ly/ajwowr

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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