Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Terry Nelson to Alaska - AJS strafes Midwestern Dems - McDowell, Hultgren debut ads - Fight night in N.H. - Dayton gets Clinton, Biden - Burris for mayor?
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 Sep 2010 05:41:55 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked])

BREAKING - NORTH TO THE FUTURE - POLITICO's Jonathan Martin reports: “NRSC senior adviser and veteran GOP strategist Terry Nelson flew to Alaska last night to assist Republican Senate nominee Joe Miller's campaign, POLITICO has learned. Nelson is going up to meet Miller and his campaign team and make clear that the committee wants to be helpful with fundraising, field operations and overall strategy as the insurgent begins his general election bid.”

MORE: “Nelson's trip is also aimed at sending a signal to Sen. Lisa Murkowski that the national party is fully committed to Miller. Murkowski said earlier this week that she was still considering a third-party bid, something that could enable the underfunded Democrat in the race to be competitive. Also from the department of message-sending: GOP sources say that in addition to the $42,600 the NRSC has already committed to Miller, they're pledging the spend the full amount allowed - about $170,000 - in coordinated funds to help their nominee.”

As Ed Rendell makes a splash, Adrian Fenty asks for help and the Chamber's hit list expands, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections.

FIRST IN SCORE - RUST BELT BLITZ: The business-friendly conservative group Americans for Job Security is hitting four Midwestern Democratic candidates with a month-long television campaign focused on the economy. The targets are Ohio Rep. Zack Space and Pennsylvania Rep. Jason Altmire, and open-seat candidates Trent Van Haaften, in Indiana's 8th District; and Bryan Lentz, in in the 7th District of Pennsylvania. The ads feature residents from each district criticizing the four Democrats, and the one in Altmire's district begins with a woman cautioning viewers: “Jason Altmire is raising millions to tell you he's independent.” “But he supports Nancy Pelosi's agenda almost 90 percent of the time,” a second woman says. “That's not independent, that's out of touch.” The ad finishes with the first woman back on screen: “It's time to vote Altmire out.” Watch the Altmire ad here. http://bit.ly/c33efs (And the Space spot: http://bit.ly/c33efs ; and the Lentz spot: http://bit.ly/d6j8Rn)

MORE - DETAILS: The Midwestern offensive follows another AJS ad buy earlier this week, targeting New Mexico Rep. Harry Teague. All of the Midwestern buys are for four weeks, with $123,842 behind the ad in Space's district, $415,314 for Altmire's, $293,196 in Pennsylvania's 7th and $317,576 in Indiana's 8th.

HOUSE RACE PREVIEW I - THE DEM PLAYBOOK: Michigan state Rep. Gary McDowell, the Democratic nominee for retiring Rep. Bart Stupak's seat, introducing McDowell as a local boy who can be an independent voice for his district. “When you work a hay farm your entire life, people aren't your voters. They're your neighbors,” the narrator says, describing McDowell's record of “breaking with his own party to reduce taxes on small businesses and cutting his own salary because everyone else is hurting too.” Two farmers appear in the ad saying McDowell “knows what it takes to try to make a living up here,” and: “He's a working man. He's just like us, just dressed better.” Watch the spot here. http://bit.ly/dqC6dk (Note: The DCCC also went up in Michigan's 1st District this week with its second independent expendituread, attacking GOP nominee Dan Benishek. http://bit.ly/dpMma4)

HOUSE RACE PREVIEW II - THE GOP PLAYBOOK: Illinois state Sen. Randy Hultgren is up with his first general-election ad in the race against Democratic Rep. Bill Foster, casting himself as a firm check on the Democratic agenda in Washington. “In Washington, they don't get it,” the ad begins. Hultgren takes over: “Government-run health care, Wall Street bailouts, and debt: It's got to stop. … In Congress, I'll focus on what matters: Stopping job-killing tax hikes on families and small business, ending the reckless spending and most important, creating jobs.” It's a district-wide buy starting this morning. Here's the ad. http://bit.ly/cnhUkc

POLLS OF THE DAY - CNN WEIGHS IN: A wide-ranging Opinion Research poll conducted for CNN and Time Magazine shows a handful of the year's most competitive races coming down to real dog fights in the last two months. The poll tested the Kentucky Senate race and the Senate and gubernatorial elections in California and Florida. In no race was the margin between the top candidates more than five percentage points.

DETAILS: The poll found California Sen. Barbara Boxer four points up in her reelection campaign and Republican Meg Whitman two points up in the race for governor. Democrat Alex Sink was five points ahead of Rick Scott in the Florida governor's race; in the state's Senate race Marco Rubio was taking 36 percent to Charlie Crist's 34 percent and Kendrick Meek's 24 percent. The Kentucky Senate race was tied at 36 percent. Full data here. http://bit.ly/9kfaVk

PUSHBACK - Huge caveat from @brianjameswalsh - “Noticing that the new CNN polls on KY, FL and CA polled "registered" voters and not "likely" voters. Big difference esp this year.”

HAPPENING NOW - CHAMBER UNLOADS: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has unleashed ad campaigns in the Indiana Senate race, where Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth is at a disadvantage to former GOP Sen. Dan Coats, and in California, where its offensive could challenge Barbara Boxer's already slim lead. See the Indiana spot here http://bit.ly/dCaUXF ; and read about the California ads here: http://lat.ms/aVyCYk

COUNTDOWN TO SEPT. 14 - FIGHT NIGHT: A critical late debate in New Hampshire's Republican Senate primary is scheduled for 7 p.m. tonight on WMUR, as candidates Kelly Ayotte, Bill Binnie and Ovide Lamontagne vie for late momentum. Meanwhile, Wendy Long, formerly a top staffer at the Judicial Confirmation Network, took the New Hampshire culture war into another day with an op-ed declaring “Palin made a mother of a mistake” in endorsing Kelly Ayotte. At issue, again, is Ayotte's track record in the state's legal fight with Planned Parenthood. http://bit.ly/a6ITLO

TODAY - CLYBURN TO CANTON: The third-ranking Democrat in the House of Representatives will campaign with Rep. John Boccieri in Ohio today. Campaign guidance says Clyburn will “speak about the historic Voting Rights Act of 1965 to community members at the Peel Coleman Center in Canton.”

RENDELL STEALS THE SPOTLIGHT: Pennsylvania's Democratic governor delivered a show-stopping, headline-grabbing line at the DNC's fall kickoff rally in Philadelphia yesterday, dubbing Republicans the party of “wackos.” The Philadelphia Daily News reports: “In this year of tea parties and resurgent Republicans, could anger be the answer for Democrats leery of losing big in November? … 'It's the party that's slowly but surely being taken over by wackos,' Rendell said, drawing laughter and cheers from the crowd. 'We're going to turn the reins of Congress over to the people who are more and more dominated by the wacko wing? Of course not. So we have a lot to sell. We haven't done a good job selling it.'” http://bit.ly/9InLoC Plus: POLITICO's Emily Schultheis reported from on the ground in Philly: http://politi.co/9T6U0n

DAYTON'S BIG GUNS - The campaign announces: “President Bill Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden will both come to Minnesota in support of Mark Dayton's and Yvonne Prettner Solon's campaign for Governor and Lt. Governor. President Clinton will be in Minnesota on the evening of September 14th and Vice-President Biden will come to Minnesota on the early afternoon of October 5th.”

AND - MEET ME IN OHIO: Clinton will also appear in Cleveland and Columbus on Sept. 14 to rally support for Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland. That's also the date of the first debate between Strickland and Republican challenger John Kasich. http://politi.co/aD9ekD

AD WATCH - LONG WAY FROM '08 - North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr is up today with a new spot that delivers a clear message: I'm not Elizabeth Dole. His ad a direct takeoff of a cutting commercial used against Dole in 2008 by now-Sen. Kay Hagan, showing two voters talking to each other in rocking chairs about how Dole had lost touch with the state. This time, the voters reach a different conclusion: “Boy, we sure got it wrong in the last election.” Fun fact: The guys on the porch are literally the same men as in Hagan's ad. Watch Burr's spot here. http://bit.ly/brPUFq

LAST, BEST HOPE? Washington D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty has reached out to the White House about the possibility of getting heavy-duty help ahead of a grim-looking primary on Tuesday against challenger Vincent Gray. “Obviously, we would be in touch with the White House about whatever support they could give and I think they will do as much as they can,” Fenty told WTOP. The station reported that “Fenty hopes for some type of official endorsement he can use in advertisements or campaign literature.” Psst: Ask Arlen Specter how that worked out! http://bit.ly/dwqwkU

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Certainly there'll be talk. Fortunately, my name has not been mentioned, so that's on the good side.” - Sen. Roland Burris, on the possibility of running for mayor of Chicago. http://bit.ly/bUsfKG

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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