Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: SEIU poll bolsters Dem tax position - Blunt: Carnahan 'lying' - Sheheen ad: Haley not 'who she says he is' - DCCC, NRSC strongest in cash - Norris raises for Huck - DGA sees O'Donnells everywhere
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2010 05:58:36 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked] ) 

FIRST IN SCORE - A WINNER FOR DEMS? A strong majority of voters in midterm battleground states support adding tax benefits for the middle class without renewing the Bush administration's upper-income tax cuts, according to an SEIU poll set for release today. The powerful labor group commissioned the survey from the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, which reports: "More than six-in-ten voters favor a proposal that makes permanent the middle-class tax cuts and provides those same people with a series of new tax cuts and credits, while allowing tax cuts on the upper-level filers to expire ... The proposal garners broad support, regardless of whether the threshold for extending the tax cuts is set at $250,000 per year or $1 million a year." 

MORE DETAILS: By 62 percent to 31 percent, respondents said they favor extending tax cuts only for Americans making up to $250,000, and by 59 percent to 32 percent, they supported extending tax cuts only for Americans making up to $1 million a year. The SEIU poll ran from Sept. 8-13, testing 400 likely voters in each of seven key states - California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin - for a total of 2,800 interviews. 

SENATE EXCLUSIVE - BLUNT'S COUNTERATTACK: Missouri Rep. Roy Blunt, under attack from the DSCC and his Democratic opponent Robin Carnahan, is returning fire with an ad accusing Carnahan of distorting his record. "Why is Robin Carnahan lying about Roy Blunt?" the commercial asks. "Because she's wrong on every issue: The disastrous stimulus, government-run health care. Her energy plan will double your utility bill and cost 32,000 Missouri jobs. Robin Carnahan will push Washington's job-killing agenda even further." Blunt has led Carnahan in most recent polling, but Missouri Democrats released an internal poll Monday showing the race tied, and Blunt up four percent with leaners included. Watch Blunt's ad here. http://bit.ly/d3qf1K  

GOV RACE EXCLUSIVE - SHEHEEN'S BATTLE SONG: South Carolina state Sen. Vincent Sheheen, the Chamber of Commerce-backed Democratic opponent for Republican gubernatorial nominee Nikki Haley, is up with an aggressive new ad that amounts to a point-by-point attack on Haley's political credentials. The commercial shows a series of South Carolinians expressing discomfort or doubt about Haley, raising the prospect that the GOP nominee "isn't who she says she is." With each speaker voicing just a short line of text, the ad has a verse-like quality - and Morning Score brings you nine representative lines, accordingly: 

I thought I knew who Nikki Haley was, 

But all these recent news reports 

Made me wonder who she really is. ... 

She claims to be a fiscal conservative, 

But she wants to put a tax on our groceries. 

Nikki Haley boasts about her accounting skills, 

But she got fined for failing to pay her own taxes. 

Makes me think that Nikki Haley 

Isn't who she says she is. Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/dnb8fx  

As West Virginia agonizes, the DCCC slams Jim Renacci and Mike Huckabee's biggest fan returns, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections. 

THE MONEY RACE - AUGUST SCOREBOARD: The NRSC and the DCCC ended last month as the best-positioned campaign committees, with more cash on hand than their partisan counterparts. The DSCC actually raised more money than the NRSC in August - $7.4 million to $6.1 million - but the NRSC had $24.5 million in the bank to the DSCC's $22.9 million. Republicans on the House side have more targets, but less money - they raised $6.6 million in August to the DCCC's $8.3 million and had $25.6 million in the bank to the DCCC's $39.1 million. The DNC brought in $10.9 million in August had had $13.4 million on hand, as well as $8.4 million in debt thanks to the party's regular practice of taking out a loan late in the game. We're still waiting on the RNC's numbers, so ... 

HOUSE RACE PREVIEW - WHERE THAT DCCC MONEY'S GOING: The Democratic committee is bombarding Republican House candidate Jim Renacci with a new independent expenditure ad that accuses him of being a tax cheat. The buy, backing up Ohio Rep. John Boccieri on Cleveland broadcast TV, also attacks Renacci for supporting a national sales tax, warning: "Renacci tried to avoid paying HIS taxes, attempting to shelter millions. ... But Renacci's trying to raise YOURS, with a new 23 percent national sales tax on almost everything you buy - food, gas, even medicine - hitting the middle-class hard." Along with Social Security, this Fair Tax-themed attack is one of the Democrats' most reliable hits of the cycle, and was used to powerful effect in the special election for Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District. Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/b4avD9  

SCORE EXCLUSIVE - ALL WITCHES NOW: The DGA will outline its targets of opportunity for the last six weeks of the campaign in a memo today, arguing that Republicans have hobbled themselves in governor's races by nominating "half a dozen Christine O'Donnells ... candidates whose backgrounds, lack of experience and radical visions would make Sharron Angle blush." "Republicans are advancing two types of candidates in key battlegrounds this cycle: Tea Party standard-bearers and those scarred by the Tea Party. This dynamic has already helped better position Democrats in the three biggest prizes of the 2010 governors races: California, Florida and Texas," DGA executive director Nathan Daschle writes, emphasizing the committee's top pickup prospects. He continues: "We are winning or neck-and-neck in most of our incumbent races. We will continue to aggressively support incumbent governors who are well-positioned to win tight races across the map in Ohio, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maryland, Iowa, Illinois and Arkansas." http://politi.co/aM8iTB  GOV RACE PREVIEW - MARTINEZ THE MAVERICK: New Mexico gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez is out with a new ad this morning that's two parts biography, one part attack on Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish. Martinez starts out telling the story of how she got into politics, highlighting her personal integrity. "As a young prosecutor, I was called to testify against my boss," she says. "I could've looked the other way, but I didn't. I stood up to him and he fired me for it, so I ran against him for DA - and won. I don't back down to corruption, never have." That's about when an image of outgoing Gov. Bill Richardson and Denish appears on the screen. Says Martinez: "If you're ready to end the corruption of the last eight years, join me." http://bit.ly/d7LBz4  

2012 WATCH - LIKE OLD TIMES: Martial arts star Chuck Norris, the most influential and popular endorser of Mike Huckabee's 2008 campaign, is making another pitch for the former Arkansas governor in a fundraising e-mail today for Huckabee's PAC. "I've been watching with interest as conservatives in state after state go to the polls to express their frustration with the status quo in Washington. You and I are witnessing a powerful moment in our nation's history," Norris writes. "We must get more involved today and help Mike Huckabee and Huck PAC fight for strong conservatives. If we don't, then we will have lost a great opportunity to elect candidates who will work to turn this country around." Norris even raises the thought of Huckabee in the White House: "Had we elected Mike in 2008, things would have been very different today - they'd be better." 

IN THE CHAMBER: West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin won the support of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Monday, putting the influential business lobby squarely behind the Democratic Senate candidate's campaign. Lisa Rickard, executive vice president for the Chamber, said in a statement that Manchin "is an invaluable leader who has a common sense approach to job creation and getting America back on the road to recovery." http://bit.ly/a0lpQ4  

AND YET - THE MOUNTAINEER'S DILEMMA - The Democratic pollster PPP previewed West Virginia poll numbers coming soon to a theater near you, writing: "On one hand you have Democrats with their best recruit anywhere in the country. Joe Manchin's 59% approval rating on our poll over the weekend represented the second best we've found for any Governor all year. On the other hand you have a state where voters, even a lot of the Democrats, are very down on national Democrats and want Republicans to control the next Congress by a 54-37 margin. A lot of voters fall into both of those categories- they love Joe Manchin and they want Republicans to control the next Congress." http://bit.ly/aj1noa  

MORE STORM CLOUDS COMING - Daily Kos proprietor Markos Moulitsas previewed another set of PPP results on Twitter - "Feingold down by double digits, MASSIVE intensity gap. W/o gap, it'd be tied race." Stay tuned for more. http://bit.ly/cK6COk  

THE BRIGHT SPOT: PPP gave California Sen. Barbara Boxer an eight-point lead over Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, and put the incumbent at the all-important 50-percent mark to Fiorina's 42 percent. http://bit.ly/cERk6L  

IN THE HOUSE - DEM PUSHBACK CONTINUES: The House race internals keep coming faster than ever, and Democrats have now released 27 internal polls in the last three weeks that show their candidates leading Republican opponents, along with two that show key districts tied. The latest wave of internals, on Monday, gave advantages to Democrat Chad Causey in Arkansas's 1st District (two points) and Rep. Jim Marshall in Georgia's 8th District (12 points), as well as to takeover hopefuls Joe Garcia in Florida's 25th District (seven points) and John Carney's in Delaware's at-large seat (18 points). Democrats also pointed to a nonpartisan Siena College poll that put New York Rep. Michael Arcuri up eight points over GOP opponent Richard Hanna. http://bit.ly/asYWx7  

BUT - ON THE FLIP SIDE: Republicans can point to yet another encouraging SurveyUSA poll out of Washington state, showing Democratic Rep. Adam Smith - previously viewed as safe - with just a three-point lead over Republican challenger Dick Muri. The station KING 5 notes that " Smith has raised more than $600,000 according to the latest federal campaign reports, while Muri has reported raising just about $94,000." http://bit.ly/asYWx7  

CHAFEE'S COALITION: Former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee continues to pick up support from traditionally Democratic groups in his independent gubernatorial bid, winning endorsements from the SEIU and the United Nurses & Allied Professionals Union. What's more, the Providence Journal reports: "[S]ources within the labor movement expected the AFL-CIO executive board would recommend that the sprawling public and private sector organization remain neutral in the race for governor while endorsing most of the other Democrats at the top of the ticket." http://bit.ly/cSCk6C  

MURKOWSKI'S GUY: After signaling last weekend that her campaign would be changing leadership, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkwoski named Kevin Sweeney, the state director for her Senate office, as her new campaign manager. Said Murkowski: "He understands the issues important to a wide range of constituencies and his knowledge of the state will be critical in helping us explain why I am the best choice to continue serving in the United States Senate." 

CODA - TYPO OF THE DAY: "Let's Make History! Visit LisaMurkwski.com" - Murkowski's first ad for her write-in campaign http://politi.co/b0DujF  

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