Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: GOP up 4 in House battle - Poll: 32% would consider Bloomberg - DLCC names 20 top targets - Dem poll: Denish tied in N.M. - AFL-CIO hits Raese, McMahon - Gene Taylor in danger zone?
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2010 06:01:40 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

BREAKING THIS MORNING - GOP TICKS UP: Republicans have taken a four-point lead on the generic ballot in the latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll, but voters are split on which party would best handle the issues driving the campaign. The survey, conducted jointly by the Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners, shows that if the congressional elections were held today, 47 percent of likely voters would pick a Republican candidate and 43 percent would pick a Democrat. That's a five-point shift toward the GOP since the last poll, in mid-September, when both parties were tied at 43 percent. Asked which party would do a better job turning the economy around, voters divided almost evenly: 46 percent said congressional Democrats, while 44 percent said congressional Republicans. On job creation, 45 percent picked Dems on the Hill and 44 percent picked the GOP. 

LOOKING AHEAD - THE 2012 ANGLE: Just 38 percent of voters said President Barack Obama has performed his job well enough that he deserves reelection, while 44 percent said they will vote for someone else and 13 percent said they will consider alternatives. Thirty-two percent of voters said they would consider voting for New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg as an independent candidate. A full 58 percent said former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's actions since leaving office have made them less likely to support her for the presidency. Read the full poll results here. http://politi.co/bYn0Ah  

As Charlie Baker gets close, Patrick Murphy looks alive and Dennis Moore shares the wealth, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections. 

MONDAY STAKES - There are 36 days until the Nov. 2 election. That's the same amount of time that's elapsed since Aug. 22 - two days before the Florida and Alaska primaries - when Washington was convinced that Lisa Murkowski would coast to reelection, Bill McCollum would be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida and Christine O'Donnell was (just) a punch line. With that in mind, this is Morning Score's weekly list of the candidates and campaign actors that have the most to gain or lose in the next few days: 

(1) Delaware Rep. Mike Castle, who will decide this week whether to run for Senate as a write-in candidate and has his career and historical reputation to consider; (2) West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin, whose Senate bid has quickly turned from a sure thing into a dogfight, and who may still have a looming federal probe to worry about; (3) Nevada gubernatorial candidate Rory Reid, who has a rare opening to make the case that his long-suffering campaign is on the upswing, thanks to a Public Opinion Strategies poll that put him six points behind Republican Brian Sandoval and prompted Jon Ralston to declare: "Two Reids could actually win in November"; (4) Florida Rep. Kendrick Meek, who's been moving up in the polls against independent Gov. Charlie Crist and could permanently reshape the Senate race if he inches into second place; (5) South Dakota Sen. John Thune, whose 2012 trial balloon in the Weekly Standard means it's time to start fleshing out the case for his candidacy in a more serious way. http://bit.ly/9O9ms7  

SCORE EXCLUISVE - DENISH REBOUNDS: Democrat Diane Denish has picked up speed in the race for governor of New Mexico and has surged into a tie with Republican Susana Martinez, according to a poll taken for Denish's campaign by Third Eye Strategies. Denish, the sitting lieutenant governor, and Martinez, the Dona Ana County district attorney, are both at 46 percent, with 7 percent of voters undecided. Both candidates have gone harshly negative in recent weeks and the Democratic Governors Association has carpet-bombed Martinez with ads accusing her of misusing government resources on bonuses for her employees. Pollster Stephen Clermont, an experienced New Mexico analyst, sums up the way forward for Denish: "If Denish can keep her high level support with Democrats, turn them out, and win over undecided DTS [decline to state affiliation] voters, it's difficult to see a clear path to victory for Martinez given the way registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in New Mexico." Read Clermont's whole memo here. http://politi.co/cROzSL  

FIRST IN SCORE - SARGEANT'S BATTLE PLAN: The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the group tasked with winning state House and Senate campaigns ahead of critical post-2010 redistricting, will announce the first set of 20 "essential races" where it will focus its attention in the remaining weeks of the campaign. In a memo set for release today, DLCC executive director Michael Sargeant will call these campaigns "the key contests for Democratic state legislative control this fall. ... Some are races we anticipate to be the most competitive in their states. Others are bellwethers for similar districts elsewhere. Still others are examples of key races in critical redistricting battlegrounds." The list includes two races in Colorado, two in Iowa, two in Michigan, two in Montana, two in North Carolina and one each in Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Texas. See the full list here http://bit.ly/bCaBnU and read Sargeant's memo here http://politi.co/clIaYf  

HOUSE EXCLUSIVE - SLEEPER ALERT: Mississippi Rep. Gene Taylor has fallen into the danger zone against Republican state Rep. Steven Palazzo, a poll taken for the challenger's campaign by the Tarrance Group shows. Taylor, an 11-term Democrat, had just 45 percent support in the poll, compared with 41 percent for Palazzo. That's a major shift since December of 2009, when a Tarrance Group poll for the NRCC showed Taylor up, 68 percent to 24 percent. Republicans are convinced that Taylor in very serious trouble, and Palazzo will be getting more help from the NRCC going forward. The poll ran from Sept. 21-22. 

AND - COUNTERPOINT IN PA. - Pennsylvania Rep. Patrick Murphy, who trailed his Republican opponent by 14 points in a Franklin and Marshall poll released last week, is three points up against former GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick in a survey due out today from the SEIU and VoteVets.org. The poll, conducted for the organizations by Harstad Strategic Research, gives Murphy a larger, five-point lead among respondents who said they will "definitely vote" and an eight-point lead among voters who cast ballots in the 2006 elections. The poll tested 507 likely voters from Sept. 20-22. 

SNEAK PEEK - CHECK YOUR MAILBOX: The AFL-CIO is dropping 3.5 million mail pieces into 66 races this week, including 15 Senate contests, 11 gubernatorial campaigns and 40 congressional campaigns. Every mailer will be sandwiched with two calls, one before the mail piece hits and one after, for a total of seven million phone calls. Key hits include the Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Connecticut Senate races ("Don't let Linda McMahon put the smack down on Connecticut workers"), as well as the swiftly emerging West Virginia Senate race ("After the deadliest mining disaster in 40 years, one candidate wants to 'unshackle' management from safety regulations"). Mailers will also hit the California and Ohio gubernatorial races, among others, and Florida Rep. Alan Grayson's district ("We've seen what happens when Wall Street controls Washington ... Now, Daniel Webster wants to repeat the past.") See the Connecticut Senate mailer here http://politi.co/bsIpzF; the West Virginia mailer here http://politi.co/9Uci2u ; and the piece from Florida's 8th District here http://politi.co/9K4HD3  

SENATE SPIN - FROM THE RIGHT: The NRSC plans to go on the attack against Democratic candidates today by asking them if they agree with Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's diagnosis of the midterm elections: "We have an electorate that doesn't always pay that much attention to what's going on so people are influenced by a simple slogan rather than the facts." It's an especially timely hit in Pennsylvania, where Rep. Joe Sestak is scheduled to attend a fundraiser with Kerry today. http://bit.ly/9dyeGv  

AND FROM THE LEFT: The DSCC will release a trade-themed scorecard, going after Republican Senate candidates including Carly Fiorina, Rob Portman, Linda McMahon, Mark Kirk and others on the issue of shipping U.S. jobs overseas. The hit is timed to coincide with the Senate's vote on the Creating American Jobs and Ending Offshoring Act, which would add subsidies for hiring new workers and remove financial assistance to companies that move production out of the country.2012 TALKER - NO-APOLOGY TOUR - From the Union Leader's Garry Rayno: "Mitt Romney called out President Obama [Saturday] at a state GOP convention ... [and] said Obama is at war with private enterprise in America. Obama has traveled the country vilifying one job creator after another, Romney said. 'They don't understand what makes America, America.' Romney took aim at President Obama saying he failed to focus on the economy and helping businesses create jobs. 'The first three rules in any turnaround situation are focus, focus, focus,' Romney said. But instead Obama 'has used the economy as cover to put in his liberal agenda,' Romney said." http://bit.ly/cDSR4X  

RESCUE MISSION: The National Rifle Association gave Joe Manchin a much-needed bit of good news on Friday, endorsing the governor's Senate campaign in a statement from NRA Political Victory Fund Chairman Chris Cox. "West Virginia's gun owners and hunters appreciate his commitment to protecting their right to keep and bear arms," Cox said. That means that in the space of one week, Manchin scored endorsements from two of the country's leading conservative political groups, the NRA and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce - but the dominant narrative in his race has been about Republican John Raese's rising poll numbers and the NRSC's decision to drop more than a million dollars in independent expenditure advertising in the state. http://bit.ly/cBJJIy  

THE HITS KEEP COMING: Georgia gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal has paid an unusually large sum of money - $135,000 - to lease aircraft from a company that the Republican partly owns. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Aaron Gould Sheinin has the scoop: "Deal's Democratic opponent, Roy Barnes, has paid about $16,000 for aviation services since July 1, 2009. Deal's former rival for the GOP nomination, Karen Handel, paid $6,325.40 in airfare in 2010. State ethics laws bar candidates from using campaign money for personal benefit. It is unclear whether Deal personally benefited from the money paid to his company. Chris Riley, Deal's campaign manager and pilot, said neither Deal, his campaign nor his private company are making money from the arrangement." http://bit.ly/bqjoh0  

CLOSING, PT. I - Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is down, but not out, in his battle for reelection against former GOP Rep. John Kasich. In a new Ohio Newspaper Poll, Strickland trails Kasich by four points, taking 45 percent of likely voters to Kasich's 49 percent. Those numbers follow uglier, double-digit deficits for Strickland earlier in the month - and come alongside a snapshot of the Senate race that puts Republican Rob Portman up 15 points on Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher. http://bit.ly/cO5AGC  

CLOSING, PT. II - Republican insurance executive Charlie Baker is neck and neck with Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick in the Massachusetts governor's race, pulling into a statistical tie in the latest Boston Globe poll. Baker has 34 percent of the vote to Patrick's 35 percent, with independent state Treasurer Tim Cahill at 11 percent. The Globe writes: "Patrick has lost ground to Baker since the Globe last surveyed voters in June, when the governor led his Republican challenger, 38 to 31 percent. Cahill, damaged by negative ads from the Republican Governors Association, is having difficulty climbing back into a race in which he was once a major contender." http://bit.ly/crSWcJ  

BUT STILL - GOING NOWHERE: Tim Cahill is vowing to stay in the race for governor, despite having lost his campaign manager, Adam Meldrum, and senior adviser, John Weaver, in back-to-back resignations. "I acknowledge the fact that it's uphill for me and it's going to be a challenge," the independent candidate said on local television. "Nobody on the street is telling me to get out of this race because they want a choice and an opportunity to vote for me." Cahill's poll numbers have been stuck in the teens and Republicans believe that he's siphoning off conservative and independent voters who might otherwise support Baker. http://bit.ly/bBUuVh  

TODAY - From the White House guidance: "In the morning, the Vice President will travel to Manchester, New Hampshire. At 10:45 AM, the Vice President will host a backyard discussion on the economy and issues important to America's middle class families at a private residence. The Vice President will be joined by Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Representative Paul Hodes, and Representative Carol Shea-Porter. ... Afterwards, at 12:30 PM, the Vice President will attend an event for Representative Paul Hodes and Representative Carol Shea-Porter." 

SAVE THE DATE - OBAMA GOES HOME: President Barack Obama will return to Chicago next week to campaign for Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias. He's due in town on Oct. 7, the Chicago Sun-Times's Lynn Sweet reports: "The Obama event will also benefit the Democratic Senatorial Campaign. Obama made his first fund-raising visit to Chicago for Giannoulias on Aug. 5." http://bit.ly/cKSAhr  

MOORE MONEY, MOORE PROBLEMS: Retiring Kansas Rep. Dennis Moore has given a total of $200,000 from his campaign account to the state Democratic Party, which is supporting his wife Stephene's bid to hold the 3rd District for Democrats. The Kansas City Star reports: "Campaign finance reports filed by the KDP this week show Moore for Congress gave the party $100,000 on Aug. 13. That matches a $100,000 contribution made on June 2. In turn, mailers critical of [Republican] Kevin Yoder - sponsored by the party- are now hitting mailboxes in the 3rd district. ... Federal law prohibits Moore from directly donating his campaign cash to his spouse, or to any other candidate. But donating to the party is legal, and it is also legal for the party to spend money on campaigns." http://bit.ly/czgKOu  

ON HIS OWN: Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party nominee in New York's 23rd Congressional District, is going to have to find some new friends now that he's competing in the general election against Republican Matt Doheny. The Upstate New York Tea Party organization, which backed Hoffman in his unsuccessful GOP primary run, is throwing its support behind Doheny and blasting Hoffman as a spoiler. UNYTEA president Mark Barie said in a statement: "Doug Hoffman doesn't have an ice cube's chance in hell of winning this election. ... A vote for him is a vote for Bill Owens." http://bit.ly/bSeq5t   

CHICAGO WATCH - THE OTHER HOFFMAN: Former Illinois Senate candidate David Hoffman, the ex-Chicago inspector general who narrowly lost the Democratic primary for President Obama's Senate seat, has taken himself out of consideration for the mayor's race - "averting a candidacy that could have cut deeply into Rahm Emanuel's vote," the Sun-Times notes. "Last week, Emanuel called Hoffman to feel out his interest and ask for his support if he chose not to run. On Sunday, Hoffman was noncommittal." http://bit.ly/dhvFfU  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'm frankly surprised at the question, 'Why are you campaigning? ... Am I supposed to not campaign? Or am I supposed to campaign ineffectively?" - Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank, asked why he had former President Bill Clinton come to stump for him on Sunday. http://bit.ly/d7tzhn  

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