Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: NRSC shoots down pullback reports - Blunt makes it a family thing - DNC doles out $4.9mm - AJS renews Boucher attack - NARAL goes Quayle hunting - Allred, TMZ scramble Calif.
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Sep 2010 06:21:32 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

SENATE SIREN - NO RETREAT: Sen. Barbara Boxer is still in for some $2 million worth of NRSC-funded pain before Election Day, despite multiple reports that the GOP committee is pulling back from the California Senate race. The Daily Caller first reported - and the Huffington Post hyped up - Democratic claims that the NRSC has cut its commitment to former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina's campaign. But Republicans say that's simply false, and what really happened is the NRSC switched its $2 million ad buy over to the Fiorina campaign's buyer for practical reasons. "As painful as it might be for ultra-liberal activists across the country to hear, the reality is that Republicans are more confident than ever that Carly Fiorina will defeat Barbara Boxer in November," NRSC communications director Brian Walsh told Morning Score. "And while it's regrettable that otherwise-respectable publications like the Daily Caller and Huffington Post fell for the spin of Democrat Party operatives in Washington, the fact remains that the NRSC has publicly committed more financial resources for Carly Fiorina and Dino Rossi than national Democrats have for Barbara Boxer and Patty Murray. If anything though, this debate highlights the reality that Democrats have effectively cut loose their own candidates in Ohio, New Hampshire, Louisiana, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, and Arkansas - all states where they have yet to commit a single dollar. Of course if they want to dispute that, we're all ears." 

POLITICO SNEAK PEEK - HER BROTHER'S KEEPER: Missouri Rep. Roy Blunt is taking the air war to the next level in his race for the Senate, charging that Democratic nominee Robin Carnahan's family directly benefited from a stimulus bill that created "generations of debt." The commercial keys off reports that Tom Carnahan, the Senate candidate's brother, got a sizable stimulus grant for his business - an issue already popping up in the reelection campaign of Rep. Russ Carnahan, another sibling in the family. "Where'd our money go? Ask Robin Carnahan," Blunt's ad urges viewers. "Her brother's wind farm got over 100 million stimulus dollars. How? Robin Carnahan campaigned for Obama and the stimulus. Her brother lobbied for his special deal and was a top Obama fundraiser." A harsh kicker sums up the Republican's attack: "The Carnahans get a real windfall, we get the bill - and no jobs." Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/a1Y1Wb  

As John McCain opens his checkbook, Maine offers up 2012 clues and the election cycle's last full fundraising quarter comes to an end, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections. 

BEFORE THE BUZZER - 3Q ENDS TONIGHT: The DNC has made a new round of donations to state parties and federal campaign committees, totaling $4.9 million for the month of September. Both the DSCC and DCCC took in $1.67 from their party's central committee, while the DNC made its biggest state party donations in Georgia ($400,000) and Florida ($325,000). Other state parties on the DNC's list were New Mexico and Minnesota (for $250,000 each), Connecticut and Maryland ($125,000 each) and Rhode Island ($100,000). Those donations come as part of the DNC's $50 million Vote 2010 campaign, which has given a total of $14.7 million so far to those groups, as well as the state parties in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Texas and Ohio. 

FIRST IN SCORE - NARAL'S CHOICES: NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC is spreading $100,000 in new campaign donations to 20 House candidates before the quarterly deadline tonight, including 15 Democratic incumbents, three open-seat candidates and two challengers to sitting Republicans. Nancy Keenan, the president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, said in a statement: "The 2010 election cycle features some of the most extreme anti-choice candidates in recent memory. Voters will see a distinct difference between mainstream pro-choice candidates and anti-choice extremists who, if elected, will open the door to even more political intrusion into our personal, private decisions." 

MORE DETAILS - GOING ON OFFENSE: The PAC, which has given out a total of $340,000 this cycle to federal candidates who support abortion rights, gave $5,000 each to Louisiana state Rep. Cedric Richmond, who's challenging GOP Rep. Joseph Cao; Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, who's challenging California Rep. Mary Bono Mack; John Hulburd, the Democrat opposing Ben Quayle for Arizona's open 3rd District seat; Ann McLane Kuster, the Democratic nominee in outgoing New Hampshire Rep. Paul Hodes's district; and Joe Garcia, the highly touted Democratic candidate for the seat Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart is vacating in Florida. Get the full endorsement list here. http://bit.ly/bGN0tW  

POPPING TODAY - UNDETERRED: Just when Rick Boucher thought they were out, Americans for Job Security is going back in. The conservative pro-business group had its ads pulled in Virginia's 9th District, after the Democratic lawmaker complained that AJS unfairly equated his party loyalty score with a record of voting with Nancy Pelosi. Well now the group has tweaked its language, and it's up with a new commercial warning: "Rick Boucher is trying to deceive you." "After nearly 30 years in Washington, Boucher's forgotten what's right for Southwestern Virginia," the ad charges. "He votes with his party 96 percent of the time, and Boucher voted with Nancy Pelosi and against us when he supported new energy taxes that could cost 50,000 Virginia jobs ... Now it's time Rick Boucher loses his." Watch the full Boucher commercial: http://bit.ly/9zKrAn ; and new AJS ads against Colorado Rep. John Salazar and New York Rep. Michael Arcuri here http://bit.ly/apJoz7  and here: http://bit.ly/d8rL8q  

SPEAKING OF AJS - SHOTS FIRED: Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus went after the organization by name in a letter to IRS Commissioner Douglas Shulman this week, declaring that it's time to scrutinize non-profit groups that spent heavily in elections. "Recent media reports on various 501(c)(4) organizations engaged in political activity have raised serious questions about whether such organizations are operating in compliance with the Internal Revenue Code," Baucus wrote. "These media reports raise a basic question: Is the tax code being used to eliminate transparency in the funding of our elections - elections that are the constitutional bedrock of our democracy? They also raise concerns about whether the tax benefits of nonprofits are being used to advance private interests." DEVELOPING ...CASTLE'S CURTAIN - Delaware Senate candidate Chris Coons can breathe a sigh of relief: He won't be facing a potential spoiler candidacy from Republican Mike Castle. The veteran congressman announced in a statement overnight that he and his wife Jane have decided "it's time ... to begin thinking about the next chapter of our lives," after he lost the Sept. 14 GOP primary to Christine O'Donnell. "While I would have been honored to represent Delaware in the U.S. Senate, I do not believe that seeking office in this manner is in the best interest of all Delawareans," he said. "Delaware is a close community of people who find practical solutions to the complex challenges we face. That characteristic is something that makes our State a very special place to live. I look forward to continuing to serve our State as your Congressman in the remaining months of my term in a principled manner; Delawareans deserve no less." 

HOUSE RACE EXCLUSIVE - LASSA'S NEXT MOVE - Wisconsin state Sen. Julie Lassa is going up with a new attack ad against Republican congressional candidate Sean Duffy, the latest in a flurry of Democratic hits that have targeted Duffy's record as a prosecutor, position on Social Security and past as a reality TV star." While in office, Duffy was reimbursed for driving 27,000 miles to political events - enough to circle the globe," Lassa's ad warns. "But as Ashland DA, Duffy didn't go the extra mile. Duffy repeatedly plea bargained sexual predators. Violent crime quadrupled and sexual assault rose to the highest rate in the state. With a record like that, no wonder he's in such a hurry." Lassa's campaign released an internal poll earlier this week showing a tight race, while Duffy went up with a new positive ad - his latest with a distinctive lumberjack theme. Watch Lassa's spot here http://bit.ly/9mYD7f  and Duffy's here: http://bit.ly/9cWr5i  

ALLRED ALERT - "Meg Whitman employed illegal immigrant, attorney charges" - From the San Francisco Chronicle: "The October surprise in the governor's race unfolded live on TMZ.com as Los Angeles attorney Gloria Allred, a longtime Democratic activist, held a news conference with the former employee, Mexican-born Nicandra Diaz Santillan, who worked for Whitman as a nanny and housekeeper from 2000 to 2009. 'What did Meg Whitman know and when did she know it?' said Allred ... Allred added that Whitman ignored correspondence sent to her home from the Social Security Administration in 2003. The letter informed her that Diaz' Social Security number did not match her name - a red flag for an undocumented worker. ... [Whitman] forcefully denied the accusations. 'I feel terrible for Nicky,' the former eBay CEO told reporters. 'She is being manipulated and I'm sorry. Everything Gloria Allred is saying is an absolute lie.'" http://bit.ly/afQhCQ  

POLL OF THE DAY - CLOSE, AND LESS CLOSE: The California governor's race remains a one-point contest, while Sen. Barbara Boxer has taken a seven-point lead in her reelection fight over Carly Fiorina, a survey from the Public Policy Institute of California shows. Whitman is one point ahead of Brown in PPIC's poll, leading 38 percent to 37 percent. Here's how they get those numbers: "Independents were divided in July (30% Brown, 28% Whitman, 30% undecided) but have shifted toward Whitman (38% Whitman, 30% Brown, 19% undecided). Whitman is favored more by Republicans (71%) than Brown is by Democrats (63%)." http://bit.ly/b0eLjC  

SO WHAT'S WITH THE CNN POLL? A very different picture of California comes out of the CNN/Time poll by Opinion Research, which gave both Brown and Boxer nine-point leads over their Republican opponents. Those were only two of some VERY surprising results out of that multi-state survey, which also found the Illinois governor's race a two-point contest and put Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski at 36 percent of the vote as a write-in candidate, versus 38 percent for Republican nominee Joe Miller. Most of the poll's results were surprisingly good for Democrats, except for the leads it gave Florida Republicans Marco Rubio and Rick Scott. Bottom line: If CNN and Time are right, they're catching new trends in the bulk of the races they tested, very early. http://bit.ly/b28CGD  

SABATO'S CAVEAT - Via Twitter - "@LarrySabato: AK SEN: A write-in poll % is likely larger than eventual reality. Some write-ins will be disqualified. Other voters won't go to the trouble." http://bit.ly/cgjmnB  

TODAY - From the White House guidance: "In the evening, the President will attend a DNC dinner at a private residence in Washington, DC. ... Later, the President will attend a DNC Gen44 event at DAR Constitution Hall." And for the VP: "[T]he Vice President will travel to Omaha, Nebraska. At 2:00 PM CDT, the Vice President will attend an event for Congressional candidate Tom White. The Vice President will then travel to Albuquerque, New Mexico. At 5:00 PM MDT, the Vice President will attend an event for Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish." 

2012 TALKER - THUNE'S TIMELINE: The South Dakota senator outlined his thinking on 2012 during a conference call with reporters Wednesday, admitting: "I'd be less than honest if I said I hadn't thought about it, based upon the amount of encouragement that I've received from people across South Dakota and my colleagues here in the Senate and people across the country." More from the AP: "[H]e said he's not visiting early primary states, hiring staff or doing any of the other things active candidates are doing. 'It's something obviously, if you're interested in maximizing your opportunities to make a difference and to serve, you take a look at,' Thune said. 'Yes, I have thought about it and had a discussion with my wife. That's a very long way from planning a run or making a decision.' That decision will come sometime next year, he said." http://bit.ly/c0GCq1  

PLUS - SPOTTED: Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, getting a special shout-out at the top of Cato's list of the best and worst governors, for having "vetoed four separate income and other tax hikes that Democrats in the legislature sent him during the financial panic and recession." http://bit.ly/cNvhtl  

AND - 2016 ALERT? Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal will visit New Hampshire in the middle of October to boost Republican John Stephen's gubernatorial campaign, the Union Leader reports. John DiStaso: "Jindal will keynote a fund-raiser for Stephen at the 100 Club, a members-only dining club in downtown Portsmouth, and then participate in a public campaign event, most likely a business tour. Jindal is the fourth prominent GOP governor or former governor to campaign with Stephen, joining Mitt Romney of Massachusetts earlier this month, Haley Barbour of Mississippi earlier this week, and Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota tomorrow." http://bit.ly/9dJGu7  

NOTABLE - AS MAINE GOES: The race for the governor's mansion in Augusta has tightened considerably over the last two weeks, and Republican Paul LePage and Democrat Libby Mitchell are now in a statistical tie, according to the Maine pollster Critical Insights. LePage now takes 30 percent of the vote to Mitchell's 29 percent, with independents Eliot Cutler and Shawn Moody at nine percent and five percent, respectively. LePage led by 13 points on Sept. 19, but he's mishandled several high-profile media events and taken a battering on the air from the DGA. http://bit.ly/bD3dWT  

WHY YOU SHOULD CARE: This race isn't just important to determining who runs the state of Maine next year - LePage's tea party-backed campaign is also an important omen for moderate GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe's reelection fight in 2012. 

COMINGS AND GOINGS: South Carolina Rep. John Spratt will have a new communications director next week, bringing on former South Carolina Democratic Party executive director Nu Wexler to aid his campaign against Republican state Sen. Mick Mulvaney. Wexler, currently the communications director for the House Education and Labor Committee, will take a leave of absence from the majority staff until Election Day. 

TEAM PLAYER WATCH: Arizona Sen. John McCain, apparently still flush with cash after dumping millions on his GOP primary win, is cutting a $1 million check to the NRSC. That's a Chuck Schumer-esque move for McCain, who's also campaigned for Republican candidates in states including California, Colorado and New Hampshire. McCain campaign manager Mark Buse said in a release: "For the first time in many years Republicans have a real chance to take control of the U.S. Senate in November and Senator McCain is committed to doing everything possible to ensure that happens. Senator McCain - in addition to contributing funds to the party - will be traveling around Arizona and the country to help get out the vote." 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "This isn't North Korea." - Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal, explaining why he won't endorse in the race for his open seat. http://bit.ly/cozfJH  

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