Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: DNC posts $16 million month - Jesmer: 'Tidal wave' coming - Monday stakes: Patrick, Crist face hurdles - DLCC picks top targets - Rahm gets a manager - Obama cuts La. ad
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 4 Oct 2010 06:06:46 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

SURGE IS WORKING - THE $16 MILLION DEMS - The DNC will report a massive September fundraising haul, taking in over $16 million in its best month of the 2010 campaign. That's about $3 million more than the committee's next-best monthly take, of $13.3 million in March. More than 80 percent of the September total came from "low-dollar donors online and in the mail," a Democratic official said, explaining: "We've found that our supporters are now focused on the election, are responding to the president's message laying out the choice and understand the stakes." Much of that money is going straight into the field: The DNC donated $4.9 million to the DCCC and DSCC, and to state Democratic parties, last month alone. 

SCORE EXCLUSIVE - JESMER'S STATE OF PLAY: NRSC executive director Rob Jesmer will argue in a memo today that Republicans remain in a powerful position a month before Election Day, and that that on both a big-picture and a race-by-race level, "the playing field continues to tilt heavily in Republicans' favor. "Every Republican incumbent running for reelection will win, as there is not a single state in which an incumbent Republican nominee is facing a substantial threat," Jesmer writes. "We also strongly expect to hold every Republican open seat." Ticking off the 13 targeted Democratic-held open seats, Jesmer says Republicans "will invest whatever means necessary" to win in Colorado, will "devote whatever resources necessary to maximize [Sharron] Angle's chances of defeating [Harry Reid], and pledges that the NRSC is "prepared to invest millions" in the Washington Senate race. His larger takeaway is that Republicans are in a superior financial position: "In the 2nd quarter of 2010, Republican candidates in key races raised $32.6 million to Democrats' $17.9 million. And Republican candidates entered the final stretch with a more-than $15 million cash-on-hand advantage." 

MORE - "You can expect them to put this cash to be put to full use between now and November 2nd," Jesmer writes. "Independent voters prefer Republican candidates by a double-digit margin; Republican voters are 25 percent more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats; our candidates and the NRSC have a significant cash advantage. Given the hard facts, the onus is on Democrats to explain why - and how - their candidates can win." 

As the AFL-CIO drops the L-word on Mark Kirk, Susana Martinez gets close to 50 and Lori Edwards runs against a different capital city, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections. 

MONDAY STAKES - There are 29 days - four weeks and a day - until the Nov. 2 election. In some states, the voting has already begun thanks to early and mail-in balloting. Here's Morning Score's list of the top candidates and campaign actors that have the most to gain or lose in the week ahead: 

(1) Former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, who begins his campaign for mayor of Chicago under the microscope of both the local and national media; (2) Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who has his first debate with Linda McMahon and needs to make the most of the Republican's unforced-error comments on the minimum wage and lobbying; (3) Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, whose reelection fight is even tougher now that independent candidate Tim Cahill's running mate endorsed Republican Charlie Baker; (4) Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who was still holding on to second place in last week's Senate race polling, and is rapidly approaching a do-or-die moment in his quest to become the consensus anti-Marco Rubio candidate; (5) Ohio congressional candidate Tom Ganley, an important map-expanding GOP recruit who's now been accused of sexual assault in a lawsuit that threatens to unravel his campaign (Ganley denies the charges). 

SNEAK PEEK - STATE BY STATE: The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is poised to roll out the second half of its "Essential Races" list today, naming some of its most urgent targets for the last month of the battle to control congressional redistricting: On the list are seats that would help the party put the Texas House of Representatives in play, expand its majority to a crucial two-thirds threshold in the California Senate and retain legislative chambers in Colorado, Delaware, Iowa, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. The DLCC explains in a memo: "With over 6,000 state legislative races on ballots across the country this November, state legislative races seldom get the attention even of sophisticated political observers. ... The Essential Races program helps identify the races that will be most significant in 2010. ... In 2008, more than 160 state legislative races were decided by 200 votes or fewer." Here are the new races on the DLCC's list http://bit.ly/bCiwlm  ; here's the full list of 40 essential races http://bit.ly/bnv2m2  ; and here's today's announcement message: http://politi.co/aHFcj8  

POLLING TICKER - Marist-McClatchy: Ken Buck leads by 8 in Colo. ... Pat Toomey up 9 in Pa. ... Ron Johnson leads Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold by 7 http://bit.ly/asdMj8  ... Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV: Alexi Giannoulias up 2 on Mark Kirk ... Pat Quinn one point ahead in Ill. gov race http://bit.ly/9SFBaH  & http://bit.ly/c8TIzo  ... Albuquerque Journal: Susana Martinez at 49, ahead of Dem Lt. Gov. Denish by 7 http://bit.ly/aH8Dgo  ... Quinnipiac: Rick Scott inches ahead of Alex Sink by two points http://bit.ly/dxL6sQ  

THIS WEEK - CHECK YOUR MAILBOX: The AFL-CIO is putting 3 million mail pieces into some 61 elections this week, including a dozen Senate races, 41 House races and eight campaigns for governor. The Senate mailers include hits on Republicans Ron Johnson of Wisconsin (on outsourcing), Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania (on Social Security), Linda McMahon of Connecticut (on her "anti-worker record") and more. The union has especially rough hits against Illinois Senate candidate Mark Kirk ("Liar Liar. Mark Kirk should be fired.") and West Virginia's John Raese ("Here's what he says about his wealth: 'I made my money the old-fashioned way. I inherited it.'") The AFL-CIO's also doing positive mailers for North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, the Democratic nominee for Senate, and Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, among others. Each piece is sandwiched with two calls, one before and one after the mailer arrives, for a total of 6 million phone contacts. See the Kirk mailer here http://politi.co/9lHGgT  ; the Raese mailer here http://politi.co/9ra2NU ; and the piece boosting Elaine Marshall here http://politi.co/dnlBEW  AD WATCH - OBAMA'S PITCH: President Barack Obama has cut his first television ad of the general election, boosting Louisiana Rep. Cedric Richmond's campaign against Republican Rep. Joseph Cao and telling voters: "New Orleans needs Cedric Richmond in Congress and so do I." "The city of New Orleans has had its trials. But you've also had great champions, fighting to see you through the tough times," Obama says. "Cedric Richmond is one of those champions." The ad was produced by the firm AKPD Message and Media, White House senior adviser David Axelrod's old firm. Watch it here. http://bit.ly/d0LRAN  

PLUS - BRACE YOURSELF: The president's ad for Cao doesn't just show what a strong pickup opportunity this is for Democrats - it also shows "that race will play a big role in the campaign to defeat Rep. Cao," a Louisiana Democratic source said, and in the next week "Louisiana Democrats will begin to highlight the connections several high level Cao aides have to white supremacist movements from the past." 

AND - WEEKEND TRAFFIC: The NRCC popped 25 new spots over the last few days, targeting Dems including Chad Causey, Reps. Allen Boyd, Ben Chandler, Harry Mitchell and Frank Kratovil and more. See them here. http://bit.ly/cZNXVk  

HOUSE RACE EXCLUSIVE - FLA. DEM ATTACKS: An office building identified as "Big Insurance" headquarters is the setting of Democrat Lori Edwards's new ad in Florida's 12th District, where Edwards is competing against former GOP state Rep. Dennis Ross for a Republican-held open seat. The commercial shows two businessmen speaking in front of a portrait of Ross, labeled "Tallahassee insider." "Won't it be great when Dennis Ross is in Congress?" one asks, recalling "how he got away with representing the biggest insurance companies in the state while he chaired the House insurance committee." The other man exclaims: "Genius!" Edwards, the Polk County supervisor of elections, is a solid recruit who some Democratic strategists hope might turn this into a sleeper race on challenging turf - possibly with the help of a third candidate running under the Tea Party banner. The ad, produced by Envision Communications, begins airing in Tampa on Tuesday. Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/azHi8b  

ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA - BIPARTISANSHIP BREAKS OUT: Incumbent House members of both parties - including two of Florida's leading minority lawmakers - are teaming up in opposition to a pair of ballot initiatives that would reform the congressional redistricting process. From the Wall Street Journal's weekend must-read: "The initiatives, known as Amendments 5 and 6 to the state constitution, have been championed by an organization called Fair Districts Florida and aim to establish rules making it harder for state legislators to benefit the interests of one party or other by mapping out oddly shaped congressional districts ... Instead, the amendments, which would need the support of 60% of voters to pass, require the creation of compact, contiguous districts. ... Arrayed against the ballot initiatives are business lobbies, a former Florida Secretary of State, and some sitting legislators: Corrine Brown, an African-American Democratic congresswoman from the northern part of state, and Mario Diaz-Balart, a Republican congressman from the south." http://bit.ly/9AiPT4  

SCOOP - RAHM PICKS HIS GUY - POLITICO's Carol E. Lee and John Bresnahan: "Rahm Emanuel has chosen Scott Fairchild, the chief of staff for Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.), to manage his campaign for mayor of Chicago ... Fairchild agreed to lead Emanuel's Chicago bid earlier this week, before President Barack Obama's Friday announcement that he was losing his top aide, sources familiar with situation said. He plans to start in Chicago after the Nov. 2 midterm elections. With a campaign manager lined up, a website launched and a 'listening tour' through Chicago neighborhoods set to begin Monday, Emanuel formally announced his candidacy Sunday in an online video. 'We need leadership that's tough enough to say no when it needs to be said, and smart enough to know what government should do - and also what it can't do,' Emanuel says in the video. 'So as I prepare to run for mayor, I'm going to spend the next few weeks visiting our neighborhoods - at grocery stores, L stops, bowling alleys, and hot dog stands.' Emanuel is already receiving advice from Fairchild, who has informed Murphy of his plans to leave." http://politi.co/cxOHV4 Watch the announcement video here: http://bit.ly/cZfOlJ  

FEEL THE SUSPENSE- Via Twitter - "ppppolls: We polled CO Gov, CO Sen, CT Sen, CT Gov, Both NY-Sen, and NY-Gov this weekend. Only 1 of them in single digits" 

TOUGH LEDE - "Where does U.S. Senate candidate John Raese actually live?" - From the Times West Virginian: "The wealthy businessman owns homes in Florida, West Virginia and Colorado. There is nothing wrong with that. However, as a Senate candidate, the question of where Raese lives means more. .. In 1999, the Raeses purchased a 7,000-square-foot Italianate mansion along the intercoastal waterway in Palm Beach, Fla.... The Raeses receive a $50,000 homestead exemption on this $2.9 million estate, according to Florida's Tax Collector's Office for Palm Beach County. This tax-exempt status is only avail&not;able to permanent residents, according to the Tax Collector's Office. [Campaign manager Jim] Dornan said it is Elizabeth, not John, who has been granted the tax exemption. However, John and Elizabeth's names are listed on the tax document. The Raeses' two children have attended schools in Florida." http://bit.ly/caR7aU  

NEXT CYCLE - BAYH-ING IN: Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh gave an additional $500,000 donation from his campaign account to the state Democratic Party, on top of a $1 million gift he gave earlier this year. Bayh is a possible 2012 gubernatorial candidate, and WISH-TV notes that his money "likely means a much bigger get-out-the-vote effort for every Democratic candidate in Indiana but it's also the kind of help that may attract other meaningful donations." http://bit.ly/aUlWjE  

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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