Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: NRSC smells waffles in Ky. - Blumenthal tracks up - EMILY's List body slams Gardner - Dem polls: Bennet, Denish close - Bera raises $550K - Chamber backing Hurt
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 6 Oct 2010 05:56:23 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

SENATE SIREN - BLUMENTHAL STRONG: Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has widened his advantage over Republican wrestling executive Linda McMahon to 15 points, the Democrat's internal tracking poll shows. The Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has Blumenthal holding steady with a majority of the vote and leading McMahon, 53 percent to 38 percent. The pollster notes in a memo that McMahon's public image remains deeply problematic, and "large numbers of Connecticut voters hold unfavorable views of McMahon." Her favorability rating in the survey was 32 percent, while 47 percent said they had an unfavorable impression of her. The poll tested 600 likely voters on Oct. 3 and 4. Read the polling memo here. http://politi.co/9jQbus  

FIRST IN SCORE - WELCOME TO THE WAFFLE HOUSE: The National Republican Senatorial Committee is up with a new, breakfast-themed attack on Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway, aiming to undermine the Democrat's trustworthiness with an ad that asks: "Mmm. Smell those waffles?" The image of a toaster appears on screen and the narrator explains: "It's Jack Conway waffling on tax cuts." As one waffle pops out of the toaster, a clip of Conway appears in the toaster reflection saying: "I think the Bush tax cuts ought to be extended for some period of time." But then another waffle pops up and the ad announces - with the help of another clip shown on the toaster - that Conway "also said, 'I would favor letting expire, probably the majority, the majority of the - of the Bush tax cuts.'" The commercial signs off with this message for Conway: "Hey, Jack, waffles are for breakfast. Not for senators." Watch the NRSC ad here http://bit.ly/bRLCxh; and Republican Rand Paul's latest spot http://bit.ly/9SCkUD  

As Lincoln Chafee cleans up, Jeb Bush remembers the '90s and Doug Hoffman knows when to fold 'em, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections. 

WESTERN EXCLUSIVE I - TARGETED STRIKE: The EMILY's List independent expenditure group Women Vote! is going up with a two-week ad campaign against Colorado Republican Cory Gardner, intended to wipe out Gardner's support among independent female voters as he challenges first-term Rep. Betsy Markey. The spot features Kathryn Dran, an unaffiliated voter from Centennial, talking about her son's struggle with autism - and Gardner's vote against mandating health insurance coverage for the condition. "Chris struggled and needed special care, but our health insurance company refused to cover his treatment. So we went to the legislature for help," Dran says. "Rep. Cory Gardner heartlessly opposed coverage for autism. Gardner voted against helping children like my son. I've never understood that vote and always wanted to ask Cory Gardner: What if Chris were your child?" The ad will run on broadcast and cable at a total cost of more than $300,000, and follows an earlier EMILY's List buy against Gardner that swung independent women away from the Republican by a 29-point margin in the group's polling. Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/dgF1MY  

WESTERN EXCLUSIVE II - Two statewide Democratic candidates have seen their political fortunes improve amid a campaign that has pushed their opponents' negative ratings higher and higher. In Colorado, Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet has pulled into a three-point lead over Republican challenger Ken Buck, according to a poll taken for Harstad Strategic Research. Among likely voters, Bennet has 44 percent support to Buck's 41 percent, while among those who say they will definitely vote those numbers become Bennet 45 percent-Buck 43 percent. Pollster Paul Harstad notes that while Bennet's favorability numbers are basically stable (36 percent positive, 34 percent negative), Buck's are now upside-down, at 31 percent positive, 41 percent negative. In the New Mexico governor's race, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish is now within striking distance of Republican Susana Martinez, as Martinez's negatives have crept into the red. Denish is now three points back from Martinez in her campaign tracking, whereas she was five points behind in mid-September. The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll shows that Martinez's favorability numbers have gone from 42 percent positive, 31 percent negative in August to 39 percent positive, 42 percent negative now. The pollster noted: "In this political environment where the normal Democratic advantage is muted, we will need extra firepower in paid communications and turnout to push ourselves over the top." Read the full Bennet memo http://politi.co/cYQ0EF  and the full Denish memo http://politi.co/cMoxAL  

CHAMBER PICKS HURT - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will back Virginia state Sen. Robert Hurt for Congress today, boosting the Republican in his fight to unseat first-term Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello. Bill Miller, the Chamber's vice president and political director, plans to call Hurt "an invaluable leader who has a common sense approach to job creation and getting America back on the road to recovery. ... On issues ranging from competition in the health care industry, to lowering taxes, to reducing energy costs, businesses and workers in Virginia's 5th district will have a tireless advocate in Robert Hurt." Perriello responded preemptively, accusing the Chamber of bringing foreign money into the 2010 campaign. http://bit.ly/92unM9  

MORE - The Chamber has also broadened its Senate ad blitz, and is now running ads that describe Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold and Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal as hostile to business. Watch them here http://bit.ly/czaG0Y  and here http://bit.ly/amrcM l 

2012 TALKER - TODD THE ENFORCER: Alaska Senate candidate Joe Miller drew a furious response from Todd Palin last month when he dodged a question on TV about Sarah Palin's qualifications for the presidency, according to an e-mail exchange posted by the Alaska blog Mudflats. Todd Palin blasted in an e-mail Miller, SarahPAC treasurer Tim Crawford and attorney Thomas Van Flein: "Sarah put her ass on the line for Joe and yet he can't answer a simple question ' is Sarah Palin Qualified to be President'. I DON'T KNOW IF SHE IS .... Sarah spent all morning working on a Facebook post for Joe, she won't use it, not now. Put yourself in her shoe's Joe for one day." http://bit.ly/bZO04D  and http://politi.co/c6Wr51  

TODAY - From the White House guidance: "Later in the afternoon, the President will travel to Newark, New Jersey ... the President will attend a DNC dinner at a private residence in Cresskill, New Jersey." 

HOUSE RACE PREVIEW - BERA KEEPS IT GOING: California congressional candidate Ami Bera brought in over $550,000 in the third quarter of 2010, another powerful performance that puts him in a position to give GOP Rep. Dan Lungren a real challenge on Nov. 2. Bera, a physician, beat Lungren's fundraising numbers during the previous five fundraising quarters. A September PPP poll showed the race at 46 percent for Lungren, 38 percent for Bera. 

FUNDRAISING TICKER: Texas Gov. Rick Perry has about $10 million in the bank, after raising an imposing $8.26 million over the previous three months ... Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland pulled in $1.6 million in September ... Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan raised $2.1 million for her Senate campaign, versus $2 million for GOP Rep. Roy Blunt ... Pennsylvania Senate candidate Pat Toomey outraised Joe Sestak, $3.8 million to $3.2 million ... Lou Holtz raises for the NRCC http://bit.ly/9bsBbb  

THE BIG ONE - BROWN'S STASH - California Attorney General Jerry Brown has $22.5 million in the bank for the last four weeks of his campaign against former eBay CEO Meg Whitman. That means that after keeping his powder dry for almost the whole cycle, the outgunned Democrat will have the cash to compete credibly with Whitman's bottomless personal account. The Sacramento Bee's Jack Chang has more: "Whitman has spent a record $140 million on her campaign through the end of September ... Whitman spent $39.8 million from July to September, which comes out to about $3 million a week. Much of that money went to TV and radio stations all across the state, the new records show." Whitman's campaign put out an internal poll yesterday that had her at 41 percent to Brown's 43 percent. http://bit.ly/ci39t1  $$$ MUST-READ - PARTY LEADERS - South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer have routed far more to candidates through their leadership PACs than any other members of Congress, the Center for Responsive Politics finds in a new report. "More than 350 federal leadership PACs have made direct contributions to candidates this election cycle, according to research by the Center for Responsive Politics -- contributions totaling $25.5 million and counting. ... DeMint's leadership PAC, officially known as the Senate Conservatives Fund, has collected more than $4.4 million through the end of August. ... About one in every four dollars DeMint's leadership PAC has reported collecting is actually a contribution earmarked for another candidate. His leadership PAC has bundled more than $1.04 million to other federal candidates so far this cycle, according to a tally by the Center for Responsive Politics. Only Hoyer's leadership PAC -- AmeriPAC: The Fund for a Greater America-- has reported anything similar. (That group comes in at $1.3 million in bundled earmarked contributions.)" http://bit.ly/d1kaHC  

POLL OF THE DAY - WHITE FLIGHT: Democrats are losing white voters who lack college degrees by 22 percentage points, double the margin they lost the group at the congressional level in 2008. More from the AP-GfK poll: "Compared with better-educated whites, working-class whites tend to be older and more conservative .... Their wariness is reinforced by a prolonged economic funk that has disproportionately hurt the working class and shown scant signs of improvement under Obama and Congress' majority Democrats.... Democrats can hardly afford further erosion from a group that accounts for about 4 in 10 voters nationally. Their GOP preference is in contrast to whites with college degrees, who the AP-GfK Poll shows are split evenly between the two parties' candidates, and to minorities, who decisively back Democrats." http://apne.ws/9OMvv5  

AND - HOUSE RACE SNAPSHOT: The campaign for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District is narrowly split, with Democrat Colleen Hanabusa holding a statistically insignificant lead over Republican Rep. Charles Djou. A PPP survey for Daily Kos shows that Hanabusa currently takes 48 percent of the vote, while Djou is at 47 percent. This is a strongly Democratic district but Djou has a shot at retaining the seat he held in an unusual, three-way special election. http://bit.ly/ar9QlU  

FLASHBACK - YESTERDAY'S SCORE - "The Democratic Governors Association wants to make former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee the next independent candidate to collapse from the strain of his political balancing act, going up with a statewide saturation buy aimed at Chafee's tax policies." TODAY - Try finding the tax plan on Chafee's site now! http://bit.ly/b4MlbI (Here's what used to be up: http://bit.ly/9gqm8a ) 

NOT A GOOD HEADLINE - "Giannoulias consistently vague about his job at the bank," from Chicago Tribune columnist Eric Zorn: "Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias was adamant. 'There have been no inconsistencies in what I've said' ... The inconsistencies here seem to be not so much in what Giannoulias has said - an apparent bit of resume embellishment notwithstanding - but in what he has allowed or wanted the public to believe about his role at Broadway Bank. Was he a hotshot with the financial chops to take over the state treasury at age 30? Or just an up-and-coming loan officer who wasn't always in the loop and was halfway checked out when some dubious deals went down?" http://bit.ly/9BA3uj  

SHAME ON YOU, BARACK OBAMA CHARLIE CRIST - Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush interceded again in his state's Senate race Tuesday, taking a shot at independent Gov. Charlie Crist for a Social Security-themed attack on Marco Rubio. Crist is running an ad slams Rubio for wanting voters to "work longer, get by on less" and "balance the budget on the backs of seniors." And Bush is having none of it. "Charlie Crist should be ashamed of his false attack against Marco Rubio on Social Security," Bush said in a statement. "Charlie Crist used to believe that scaring seniors to win votes was wrong. I know this first-hand because in 1995 he spoke out forcefully in my defense when the very same kind of false attacks were made against me." http://bit.ly/9ZRHEc  

ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA - THE KITCHEN SINK: Democrats in the state are running a searing ad against Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott, showing prosecutors and law enforcement officials saying Scott "can't be trusted." Mark Halperin says the Rich Davis-produced spot "has the potential to be one of the most effective ads of the cycle so far in any race." http://bit.ly/dt2tkN  

GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTEN: Plattsburgh accountant Doug Hoffman, the 2009 Conservative Party standard-bearer and original tea party sensation in New York's 23rd Congressional District, has ended his rogue bid for Congress and endorsed Republican nominee Matt Doheny. Hoffman, who lost the GOP primary to Doheny, said in a statement that it's time for him and the GOP nominee to put their "differences aside and do what is best for our nation." That's a setback for Democratic Rep. Bill Owens, though Hoffman's name remains on the ballot. http://bit.ly/cUk4im  

NARAL BUYS IN: The abortion-rights group is fully on board with the Jon Stewart-Stephen Colbert rallies scheduled to take place in Washington on Oct. 30, and sent out an appeal to supporters asking them to propose slogans to use on stickers for the rally. "They're expected to draw hundreds of thousands of voters from across the country," the message said. "We need a clever, catchy way to remind them why voting pro-choice is important." 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "This is what we're dealing with. Note the date and the complete misconstruction of what I said. Holy cow." - Joe Miller, in an e-mail to aides about the chastising he received from Todd Palin http://bit.ly/bZO04D  

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