Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: DGA rides Fox backlash in 3Q - Raese ad: 'I'm not perfect' - Chamber goes up for Dems - Huck drops dough in Iowa - Finishing blow for Chafee?
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 8 Oct 2010 05:30:54 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

FIRST IN SCORE - DGA'S WAR CHEST: The Democratic Governors Association took in $10 million during the third quarter of 2010, setting a new fundraising record for the organization and ending the month of September with $13 million in the bank. That total - combined with $3 million held by DGA-supported independent groups in the states - puts Democrats in a position to spend more on governor's races in the final weeks of the midterm cycle than they did in all of 2006. A key factor in the committee's haul: The influx of small donations that followed the disclosure that Fox News parent company News Corp. contributed to the Republican Governors Association. 

The DGA is expected to be outgunned by the RGA, which had $40 million on hand at the end of June and has not yet released updated numbers. So far, the DGA has chosen its defensive targets carefully and focused on a handful of high-value pickup opportunities like Florida and Texas to make its resources go further. Delaware Gov. Jack Markell, the DGA chairman, will trumpet the third-quarter numbers as a sign of momentum and predict in a statement: "It's clear that on Election Day, more Americans in states with more electoral votes could have a Democratic governor." 

SENATE EXCLUSIVE I - RAESE RESPONDS - West Virginia Senate candidate John Raese, under attack from Democrats over his personal wealth and views on the minimum wage, is going up with an ad that attempts to move past this week's controversies with this message : "I'm not perfect, but you don't have to be to know Obama's policies have hurt us." "Joe Manchin will do anything to avoid talking about being a rubber stamp for Barack Obama. I'm a businessman who's created thousands of jobs, but not bigger government," Raese says to the camera. "Obamacare means big government. Cap and trade hurts coal. Obama's tax increases hurt families. And Joe Manchin rubber stamps all of these." 

MORE - STATE OF PLAY: Raese's message has been clouded this week by controversies over his lifestyle (his wife lives in Florida) and an inept GOP casting call - not connected to his campaign - that requested "hicky"-looking actors to play West Virginians. Democrats are rushing to take advantage of the moment: former President Bill Clinton is coming in to campaign for Manchin on Oct. 11 and AFL-CIO president (and former miner) Richard Trumka will release a statement today blasting Raese for a "'let them eat cake' attitude." But Raese's new spot shows he's still focused on his core message, framing the election in Republican-friendly terms: As a contest between a conservative change candidate and an unpopular White House. Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/9zxnuq  

SENATE EXCLUSIVE II - BLUNT'S CHOICE - Missouri Rep. Roy Blunt frames his state's Senate race as a choice between supporting government and supporting small business in a new television ad that begins with the candidate asking, "What's at stake in this election?" and answering: "Jobs." "My opponent, Robin Carnahan, supports the Obama agenda that's killing jobs," Blunt says, knocking the White House's "disastrous stimulus plan" and support for "government-controlled health care." He continues: "My jobs plan taxes a different approach. Lower taxes, less red tape, more American energy. Encouraging small businesses to do what they do best: Create jobs." Blunt has led Carnahan in recent polls and the largely upbeat ad has the feeling of a closing argument. Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/a4HdKf  

As Joe Lieberman tanks, Dan Maffei sweats and Jerry Brown has a voicemail problem, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections. 

FRIDAY STANDINGS - ARE YOU BETTER OFF NOW? There are only 25 more days before Election Day. That's just one day more than has elapsed since the Delaware primary, so the amount of time left in the campaign is about equal to the amount of time America has known Christine O'Donnell. As the clock runs out, here's how Morning Score thinks some of the top candidates and campaign actors should answer the question: Are you better off now than you were seven days ago? 

YES: (1) Florida Senate candidate Marco Rubio, whose $5 million fundraising haul and rising Mason-Dixon numbers make it difficult to imagine how his opponents could catch up before early voting starts 10 days from now; (2) Alabama congressional candidate Martha Roby, who must be making Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright pretty nervous, to have him preemptively announcing he won't support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker; (3) South Carolina state Sen. Vincent Sheheen, who has been within five points of Republican gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley in two Democratic polls over the last week, and whose challenge is clearly serious enough for Haley to add heavyweight staff. http://bit.ly/bZD9cr  

NO: (1) Connecticut Senate candidate Linda McMahon, who has been at a clear disadvantage to Democratic state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal in a host of recent polls and didn't change that dynamic at either of their two debates this week; (2) The Sierra Club, which tried to split the difference in the Florida Senate race by endorsing both Democrat Kendrick Meek and independent Charlie Crist - and prompted Meek to reject the endorsement; (3) Lou Dobbs, who may have lost any hope of a career in electoral politics thanks to a report in The Nation that he employed illegal immigrants - the same people he built a media franchise railing about. Dobbs has partially denied the report (See: http://bit.ly/aHelVS  and http://bit.ly/bP2hoM ) 

2012 EXCLUSIVE - HUCK'S MARKER: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee put a total of $8,000 into Iowa last quarter, including $1,000 each to state Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey, attorney general candidate Brenna Findley and state Sen.-turned-congressional candidate Brad Zaun. Huckabee also gave $500 donations to eight state legislative candidates and to incumbent Reps. Steve King and Tom Latham. The $8,000 figure is less than a fifth of what Mitt Romney put into Iowa last week, but it's money that shows Huckabee is at least leaving his options open in the state that made him a national figure in 2008. http://politi.co/91rb29  

** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector schools stand ready to do our part. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org  today.GOV RACE PREVIEW - FINISHING BLOW? Some people call them the liberal elite, but former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee calls them a big part of his base. And the DGA is going right at those voters in its second ad of the week targeting the independent candidate for governor. The spot begins with a shot of a black and white photo, as a female voice narrates: "That's me, in '68. My hero was Robert Kennedy. And even though I've done well financially, I've always stayed a Democrat." The narrator says that she found Chafee appealing this year - "That is, until I really thought about his one percent sales tax increase," she continues. "Sure, I can afford it, but what about people who are struggling? It just doesn't seem fair." Chafee's been on the defensive over his tax proposals and pulled down a page outlining them on his website. Democratic state Treasurer Frank Caprio is believed to have an edge in the race at this point. Watch the DGA ad here. http://bit.ly/aMpXbb  

2010 TALKER - ET TU, DONOHUE? The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is giving air support to a group of Democrats who opposed the White House-backed health care overhaul, according to a Republican source who tracks political advertising. The ads are boosting Reps. Frank Kratovil of Maryland, Glenn Nye of Virginia, Travis Childers of Mississippi, Jim Marshall of Georgia and Bobby Bright of Alabama. "When seniors look to Washington today, they wonder who will protect them," one ad goes. "With Congress cutting $500 billion from Medicare to pay for their big-government health care bill, it's good to know Frank Kratovil voted 'no." 

MORE - SHOTS FIRED - The Republican e-mails Score: "Please tell me these ads aren't part of the alleged vaunted spending effort the Chamber has been promising for months. It is beyond reason to understand why they would put money behind someone who supported cap-and-trade and has enabled the Speaker of the House to unleash the most anti-business agenda in modern history. Not only is it wrong, it is political malpractice as many - if not all - of these Democrats will be gone after November." 

HOUSE RACE SNAPSHOT - LIVE ONE IN N.Y. - New York Republican Ann Marie Buerkle is one point up against Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei, according to a poll conducted for Buerkle by the Republican firm McLaughlin & Associates. Buerkle now takes 40 percent of the vote to Maffei's 39 percent of the vote, with just over a fifth of the electorate still undecided. The Republican nominee has struggled with fundraising, but pollster John McLaughlin argues in a memo that the fundamentals of the race are strong for her: "Between the generic ballot, the head-to-head ballot and the choice model, the results are clear - the voters want to elect Republican Ann Marie Buerkle. ... As she continues to be on the radio, television and mail, Buerkle's ballot share will continue to increase and she will defeat Maffei." In addition to the GOP nomination, Buerkle is also running on the Independence and Conservative Party ballot lines, which could give her another extra boost thanks to New York's system of fusion voting. Read McLaughlin's full memo here. http://politi.co/ctWnTB  

NOT A GOOD HEADLINE - "Brown or aide is heard slurring Whitman" - From Seema Mehta of the Los Angeles Times: "In a private conversation inadvertently captured by voicemail, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown or one of his associates can be heard referring to his Republican opponent Meg Whitman as a 'whore,' saying she cut a deal protecting law enforcement pensions while the two candidates competed for police endorsements. The comment came after Brown called the Los Angeles Police Protective League in early September to ask for its endorsement. He left a voicemail asking Scott Rate, a union official, to call him, then apparently believed he had hung up the phone. The voicemail captured the ensuing conversation between Brown and his aides. ... Two audio recordings of the conversation were released to The Times on Thursday by the police union. On the initial recording, the voice making the 'whore' reference appears to be that of someone other than Brown. A union official later produced what he described as an enhanced version of the recording. In that recording, it is unclear whether the 'whore' remark was made by another person or by Brown himself." http://lat.ms/bmTtnm  

BROWN'S RESPONSE - A non-denial from campaign manager Steven Glazer: "This was a jumbled and often inaudible recording of a private conversation. At times our language was salty. We apologize to Ms. Whitman and anyone who may have been offended." 

THE MOST IMPORTANT EVENT TODAY - From the White House guidance: "President [Obama] will visit a small business in Bladensburg, MD to tour the facilities and comment on the monthly jobs numbers." Biden's day: "In the morning, at 9:00 AM PDT, the Vice President will attend an event for Congressional candidate Denny Heck in Seattle, Washington. Afterwards, at 11:30 AM PDT, the Vice President will deliver remarks at a rally for Senator Patty Murray in Tacoma, Washington." 

FUNDRAISING TICKER: Virginia state Sen. Robert Hurt raised $900,000 for his campaign against Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello ... New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte brought in $1.3 million and had $1.1 million on hand ... Washington Senate candidate Dino Rossi outraised Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, $4.4 million to $3.3 million ... Tennessee Republican Stephen Fincher raised $875,000 for his bid to take retiring Democrat John Tanner's seat ... Stay tuned for more ... 

HOUSE RACE MUST-READ - "Democrats: Adler campaign backed Tea Party candidate" - From Jane Roh of the Courier-Post: "Congressman John Adler's campaign and the Camden County Democratic Committee recruited 'NJ Tea Party' candidate Peter DeStefano to confuse conservative voters and hurt Adler's Republican challenger this fall, Democratic operatives say. 'The goal was to take 5 percent of (Republican Jon) Runyan's vote,' said a Democrat with direct knowledge of the Adler campaign and CCDC operations. 'Steve Ayscue designed the plan with Geoff Mackler following his lead.' Ayscue is a high-profile Democratic consultant who runs the CCDC. Mackler is Adler's campaign manager. Several South Jersey Democratic operatives with direct knowledge of the Adler campaign and CCDC operations spoke to the Courier-Post on condition of anonymity because of what they described as ethical qualms with Adler's campaign. 'From the beginning, orders have flowed from Cherry Hill,' said one Democratic operative, referring to CCDC headquarters at Garden State Pavilions shopping center off Route 70." http://bit.ly/c0c0Km  

POLL OF THE DAY - NEXT CYCLE: Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman is in bad, bad shape ahead of his 2012 reelection fight, and a PPP poll shows he would get shellacked by Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy if the election were held today. In a head-to-head matchup, Murphy has a 14-point lead against Lieberman, taking 47 percent of the vote to Lieberman's 33 percent. In a three-way race that includes Republican Peter Schiff - an unsuccessful Senate candidate this cycle - Lieberman share of the vote drops to 19 percent. PPP's Dean Debnam notes that the senator has indeed brought voters together across party lines: "Democrats, Republicans, and independents in Connecticut agree on one thing: they want Joe Lieberman replaced in the US Senate." http://bit.ly/9NYGcG  

MOST DANGEROUS MAN IN MASS.? Independent state Treasurer Tim Cahill filed a lawsuit Thursday against a group of former aides he charged with sabotaging his campaign from within - and who responded by alleging that Cahill's trying to cover up illegal coordination between his campaign and a state agency. The Globe reports: "The suit accuses Cahill's former strategists, most of whom resigned from the Cahill campaign two weeks ago, of engineering the dramatic move last Friday by Paul Loscocco, a former Republican state lawmaker who was Cahill's running mate, to abandon the ticket and endorse [Republican Charlie] Baker ... [Baker's campaign] released a statement, saying, 'So far as we can tell from media reports, Tim Cahill has filed a lawsuit to prevent public disclosure of emails that indicate his campaign may have been illegally coordinating with state employees at the Treasury.'" Consultants named in the suit include John Weaver and John Yob, along with operatives Adam Meldrum and Jordan Gehrke. http://bit.ly/bgKBPt  

JUST FOR FUN - FLASHBACK TO 1939 - "New York, Nov. 15 (AP) - It's a sad state the old sport of wrestling has reached hereabouts. For several years the New York State Athletic Commission has refused to recognize any wrestling championships, ruling all bouts must be billed as 'exhibitions.' Yesterday, at the request of Jess McMahon, representing various mat promoters, the commissioners agreed to reduce the minimum wage of wrestlers from $10 to $8 per exhibition." That's Vince McMahon's grandpa! 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We also -- if I'm not mistaken, we've got the junior senator from Illinois, Roland Burris, in the house. Where's Roland? There he is right there. (Applause.) Appreciate Roland for his outstanding service." - President Barack Obama, at a fundraiser last night for Illinois Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias 

** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector colleges and universities stand ready to do our part. The millions of students in our schools deserve the same resources and encouragement as those students in other higher education institutions. The sooner collaborative work among all sectors begins, the sooner the dreams of hopeful students can become realities, and our country can meet the demands of the 21st century. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org  and tell Congress, "It's my education. My job. My choice."

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