Subject: Poll recap
From: "Alexander Snyder-Mackler" <[email-masked]>
To: "Beau Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Mike Donilon" <[email-masked]>, "Ted Kaufman" <[email-masked]>, "Valerie Biden Owens" <[email-masked]>, "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Missy Owens" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2010 22:53:57 -0400

Last week, we had two polls come back -- one ours, and one from FDU. Below is a brief summary of both (I reserve right to be corrected on the analysis, I haven't run this by Mike):

Overall: Both polls have Beau as the most popular elected in the state -- FDU has him at 61/23, ours was 64/21. The only other person in the 60s in our poll was JRB at 61. We have Obama down to 50 (from 67 two years ago), and FDU has Markell at 54. 

Dems: Almost as importantly, considering how blue this state has become, Beau is the only statewide in the 80s among Democrats (JRB highest at 85). Beau is at 81, Obama at 75, and everyone else in the 60s or below -- it's not close.

Independents/Others: Beau is nearly 30 points in the positive among Independents, 55/26. Obama is at just 47/40 with Is. JRB 61/28, and Carper has an especially good spread with Is, 57/16.

Republicans: I was most surprised at Beau's standing among Republicans. Not only is he net positive, but by 10 points -- 47/37. For some perspective, Obama is 16/73 and JRB is 25/67. 

Among those who view Beau unfavorably, 3/4 are O'Donnell/Uruquhart supporters. Beau is at 60/36 among men, the highest he's been since he went overseas in fall 2008; and 69/16 among women, the highest we've ever recorded his approval rating among women. And Beau is at 63/25 among seniors -- that's 8 points higher favorable from April of this year, with the unfavorable unchanged.

Comparing Beau to Coons and Carney, there is no real comparison. Both those guys are stuck in the 40s favorable, while Beau is in the 60s. With that low of name ID, Chris' unfavorable is still slightly higher than Beau's (27 in both polls for Chris, 21 and 23 for Beau).

Trends: Beau appears to be bucking the national and local trend. Everyone Democrat we've tested over the last two years has seen a steady decline since the fall of 08. Obama has dropped the most, to 50 from the mid-60s. Even Markell, who is popular across the political spectrum (save for state employees), has taken a hit. Beau is entrenched in the low-60s, right where he was at this time two years ago.

We have to really dig for numbers that are anything less than glowing. Beau's at 71% in Kent County, for example. If there's one spot, though, it's approval in Sussex County -- 52/25 -- which is a bit lower than it has been. Though for any D in a year like this 52 ain't bad. And with the two cases approaching resolution, that number should only go up.

I think that's it. If anyone has questions, please throw em at us. Our poll slightly undersampled Ds, by the way.

A

--
Alexander Snyder-Mackler
Biden for Attorney General
(302) 295-8340
[email-masked]
beaubiden.com
@beaubiden
facebook.com/beaubiden