Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: NRA launches high-dollar blitz - Marshall poll: Manchin up 10 - NPR: Battleground districts tighten - Romney laps money race
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2010 06:04:43 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

POLITICO SNEAK PEEK - NRA GOES HUNTING - The National Rifle Association's Political Victory Fund has launched a multimillion-dollar campaign blitz on television and radio, and in the mail, to back up pro-gun candidates in House, Senate and governor's races. The NRA-PVF has taken criticism from the GOP this cycle for endorsing a list of Democrats - including high-value candidates like West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin and Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland - but there's no question which party is going to benefit more from this ad blitz. The total price of the first-wave offensive is $6.75 million, hitting targeted Senate races like the contests in Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. The organization's also investing in gubernatorial elections in Arizona, Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, among other states. The group's ads - for candidates including Rick Perry, Rob Portman, Rick Scott, Dino Rossi and others - are all viewable here: http://bit.ly/dBbzFV  

PLUS - AIMING AT PA. - One large-scale mail campaign from the NRA-PVF is underway in Pennsylvania, where the group is sending out a total of 715,000 mailers promoting former GOP Rep. Pat Toomey for Senate and state Attorney General Tom Corbett for governor. "Protect your rights on Election Day," the mail piece reads. "Pat Toomey & Tom Corbett are the right choices for gun owners and hunters." See it here: http://bit.ly/cOldXz  

FIRST IN POLITICO - DOUBLE DIGITS: Joe Manchin has leaped to a 10-point advantage over Republican John Raese in the West Virginia Senate race, according to a Marshall University poll due out this morning. Manchin has a 48 percent to 38 percent lead over Raese in the survey - by far the largest lead the Democrat has had in any poll in months. POLITICO's Jessica Taylor reports that Manchin remains hobbled by his association with an unpopular president: "Twenty-seven percent said they thought Manchin and Obama's policy positions were 'very much the same' and 35 percent said they were somewhat similar. The health care bill remains unpopular in West Virginia, with 48 percent saying they were very worried by the legislation. And in the coal-rich state, 51 percent said they were very worried by policies that could affect the mining industry." Read more here: http://politi.co/djIzxi  

As the Massachusetts muddle deepens, the White House helps Chris Coons and Lincoln Chafee loses a friend, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections. 

FRIDAY STANDINGS - ARE YOU BETTER OFF NOW? There are now just 18 days left until the election. Debates nights are flying by. The last quarterly deadlines are about to pass. Here's one of Morning Score's final Friday snapshots of the 2010 cycle, pondering how some of the top candidates and campaign actors should answer the question: Are you better off now than you were seven days ago? 

YES: (1) Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle, whose top line fundraising number (we're still waiting for the cash on hand) virtually silenced questions about whether she can compete with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in the home stretch; (2) Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak, whose Senate campaign has been given a new lease on life by the pundit class thanks to several Democratic polls showing a tight race, and the NRSC's decision to invest fresh money for Republican nominee Pat Toomey; (3) Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, who may have lost the GOP primary for governor, but this week won an early ruling that will allow his suit against the federal health care law to be heard, thereby keeping McCollum in the national spotlight. 

NO: (1) Alaska Senate candidates Joe Miller and Scott McAdams, who are increasingly competing in a race defined by incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski's feisty, well-funded, PAC-supported write-in campaign; (2) Former New Hampshire Rep. Charlie Bass and Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, the Granite State GOP's two congressional candidates, who both fell prey to ugly headlines involving an undisclosed bank account (for Guinta) and stock purchases linked to official actions (Bass); (3) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who's now not just a figure Democrats are edging away from, but one that some will openly oppose, as Reps. Bobby Bright and Jim Marshall both did in television ads this week. 

MONEY RACE - JUGGERNAUTS WEIGH IN - Two powerful campaign committees announced imposing fundraising numbers on Thursday, as the DCCC disclosed that it raised $15.9 million in the month of September and the RGA announced an eye-popping $31 million haul for the third fundraising quarter of the year. Both committees are in a position to outgun their counterparts: The DCCC had $41.6 million left in the bank to the NRCC's $19 million, and the RGA had $31.5 million on hand compared with $13 million for the DGA. The two well-funded committees are in very different positions, however: The DCCC plans to spend $60 million in the last three weeks of the campaign, on a narrowing list of races essential to holding the House, while the RGA is operating in a target-rich and Republican-friendly environment. We're still waiting for fundraising numbers from both parties' Senate committees ... 

THE BIGGER 2010 PICTURE - BEYOND THE COMMITTEES - The Wall Street Journal confirms that Democratic third-party groups aren't going to be able to catch up with outside spending from the right, leaving what one Democratic operative calls a "David vs. Goliath" situation in the last two and a half weeks of the campaign. Brody Mullins and Danny Yadron write: "In total, outside conservative groups-such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, American Action Network and American Crossroads-could spend more than $300 million ... Outside Democratic groups, by contrast, plan to spend about $100 million on those activities. The largest labor unions say they will spend $200 million combined, but most of their focus will be on rallying union voters. ... AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka said they hoped to create a 'firewall' in some of the closest House races to protect the Democrats' majority." http://bit.ly/bvLein  

** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector schools stand ready to do our part. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org  today.DEBATE WRAP - KEEPING THE GLOVES ON: Harry Reid and Sharron Angle met for their only debate last night - and POLITICO's Jonathan Martin reports that the throwdown didn't exactly live up to Vegas fight-night standards: "The much-anticipated showdown here had more flubs than fireworks. Angle repeatedly found herself in verbal cul-de-sacs which she only escaped by returning to well-rehearsed talking points - all the while blurring over some of her controversial statements or ignoring questions about them altogether. Reid was also inarticulate, frequently using the parlance of the Senate and offering kind words about former President George W. Bush and Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia-hardly the way to motivate his Democratic base. Even more puzzling, with the polls deadlocked and his career on the line, the four-term senator largely avoided engaging Angle." http://politi.co/bjbsO1  

ELSEWHERE - In Missouri - from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch: "[Robin] Carnahan went on the attack early and often ... telling her opponent, Republican Roy Blunt, to 'man-up' and defend his record. Blunt, who has been ahead in every public poll in the race, mostly avoided direct confrontation while Carnahan, as she has in her television ads, continually called him corrupt and directly challenged him. ... They sparred most intensely over the issue of Medicare, with Carnahan accusing Blunt of suggesting it was a bad program.."And in Washington - from the Seattle Times: "Democratic Sen. Patty Murray and Republican challenger Dino Rossi clashed on tax cuts for the wealthy, the health-care overhaul and whether gays should openly serve in the military. But above all, the rivals offered starkly different views of whether Murray's 18 years of experience in the U.S. Senate are beneficial for the state." http://bit.ly/c4rTji  and http://bit.ly/9DfBe5  

POLL OF THE DAY - THIN 'SLIVER' - The battle for control of the House has tightened in 58 competitive districts across the country, according to the newest NPR poll of the congressional battlefield. Democrats trail Republicans in those seats by a three-point gap, lagging 44 percent to 47 percent. In June, Democrats had 41 percent support to the GOP's 49 percent. The big caveat comes from Glen Bolger, who tells NPR "the bad news for Democrats is that there are now more of their seats at risk. The battleground has expanded. 'That's a succinct way to put it,' Bolger said. 'Having Republicans ahead or tied across 86 districts just gives Republicans a much larger margin for error to win back the House.' ... Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg sees a small, but silver lining. 'This is still an election that it would be very hard for Democrats to hold the House with these numbers,' Greenberg said. 'But there is movement here and it's not trivial movement.'" http://n.pr/dcSIhP  

2012 TALKER - ROMNEY KEEPS ROLLING - From POLITICO's Ken Vogel: "Mitt Romney's political operation raised $1.7 million from July through September, again pacing the field of prospective 2012 GOP presidential hopefuls. ... [Romney's state and federal] committees, which are all called Free and Strong America, pay for his staff, travel and contributions to like-minded candidates. According to figures provided Thursday by the Free and Strong America operation, which has a few more days to file formal reports detailing all the committees' contributions and expenditures, the groups have raised a total of $5.1 million this year. That's more than the two next most actively fundraising prospective 2012 hopefuls - former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty - have raised in their political action committees this year combined. Palin has pulled in more than $2.5 million this year into her group, Sarah PAC, including $1.2 million from July through September, while Pawlenty has raised nearly $2.1 million through his federal committee and a pair of state committees, which are all called Freedom First PAC, including $778,000 in the third quarter." http://politi.co/99I4cY  

TODAY - From the White House guidance: "The President will travel to Wilmington, Delaware where he and the Vice President will attend an event for Senate candidate Chris Coons. ... In the morning, the Vice President will be in Wilmington, Delaware. At 1:30 PM, the Vice President will join the President at an event for Senate candidate Chris Coons in Wilmington. In the afternoon, the Vice President will travel to Milwaukee, Wisconsin. At 5:15 PM, he will attend an event for Representative Steve Kagen and Congressional candidate Julie Lassa." President Obama is due in Massachusetts this weekend to campaign for Gov. Deval Patrick. 

SPEAKING OF WHOM - CHOOSE YOUR OWN ADVENTURE: Good news, Democrats: Deval Patrick is seven points up in his reelection fight. Or Republicans, try this one on for size: It's actually GOP challenger Charlie Baker with a seven-point lead. As usual, it depends on which pollster you believe. A nonpartisan survey released Thursday from Suffolk University and WHDH-TV has Patrick in an improving position, now taking 46 percent of the vote to Baker's 39 percent, with 10 percent going to independent candidate Tim Cahill. In a Baker campaign poll, those numbers were 42 percent for the Republican, 35 percent for Patrick and 10 percent for Cahill. That's a big, 14-point gap between the polls. A key takeaway from the Suffolk poll: "The poll showed Patrick with heavy support among women and in the western parts of the state, as well as in Boston. Baker's best support is coming from the South Coast and Cape Cod." http://bit.ly/dsrl2p  and http://bit.ly/aBKGWN  

DID TIM CAHILL START A TREND? Just weeks after the independent candidate lost his campaign manager, former Sen. Lincoln Chafee lost the aide steering his own rogue bid for governor of Rhode Island. WPRI's Ted Nesi has the back story: "John 'J.R.' Pagliarini apparently resigned this morning after reporter Jim Taricani showed him documents suggesting he collected state jobless benefits even after starting work for the campaign. ... It appears the leaked documents may - may - have come from the R.I. Board of Governors for Higher Education. That panel is chaired by General Treasurer Frank Caprio's father. ... Chafee spokesman Mike Trainor says his campaign is going to call on the Caprio campaign to prove the elder Caprio 'did not know and authorize release of these documents,' which would be a violation of state and federal law. The Caprio campaign responded that the Chafee campaign should worry about the conduct of their own employees." http://bit.ly/95qbx2  and http://bit.ly/aHIrSl  

IN ON THE ACTION - BAUER'S MARKERS: Social conservative activist and former presidential candidate Gary Bauer's political committee is dropping $1 million on ad buys as part of the "Restore America" campaign. The offensive will reach four Senate races - in Nevada, Arkansas, Pennsylvania and Florida - and six House races. Because the buy is spread over so much territory, it'll likely have more impact on the congressional level, where Bauer's Campaign for Working Families plans to go after Democratic Reps. Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona, Mark Schauer of Michigan, Ike Skelton of Missouri, Steve Driehaus of Ohio and Glenn Nye of Virginia, as well as retiring Michigan Rep. Bart Stupak's open seat. 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Kathy's journey toward restoring her good name begins today." - Charles K. Graber, the attorney for casting agent Kathy Wickline, who was initially blamed for the "hicky" ad casting call before revealing e-mails placing responsibility with the GOP firm Jamestown Associates http://politi.co/cICxIU  

** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector colleges and universities stand ready to do our part. The millions of students in our schools deserve the same resources and encouragement as those students in other higher education institutions. The sooner collaborative work among all sectors begins, the sooner the dreams of hopeful students can become realities, and our country can meet the demands of the 21st century. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org  and tell Congress, "It's my education. My job. My choice."

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