Subject: The Note: Off To An Early Start
From: "Michael Andrews" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2010 09:55:46 -0400

The Note: Off To An Early Start
By MICHAEL FALCONE and AMY WALTER

Oct. 15, 2010

EARLY LINE ON EARLY VOTING. No need to wait until Nov. 2 -- 36 states  
are participating in some form of early voting this year and we're  
already seeing the results. In Iowa, for example, 119,430 early votes  
have been cast so far, according to the Iowa Secretary of State's  
Office. That represents 13 percent of the total number of votes cast  
in 2006. Of this first batch, 42.1 percent were registered Democrats,  
28.9 percent registered Republicans and 28.9 percent independents.  
"I'm just blown away by these numbers, given everything we've been  
told about the enthusiasm gap," George Mason University political  
science Professor Michael McDonald said in an interview with ABC News.  
McDonald, an expert in voting statistics and trends, said he's also  
seen some positive signs for Democrats in certain Ohio counties. "I  
don't know what the heck to make out of what we're seeing out of Iowa  
and Ohio," he said. "I feel like I'm in 2008, it's like deja vu all  
over again." If this is a national phenomenon, Professor McDonald said  
it would really start kicking in this weekend when more states open up  
early voting locations, but he cautioned that it was too early to tell  
exactly what it all means. For example, Iowa's Democratic Gov. Chet  
Culver is still is bad shape against his Republican challenger, former  
Gov. Terry Branstad. That's not likely to change, but early voters  
could potentially help Democrats in some tight House races in the  
Hawkeye State.

Then again, Iowa Secretary of State Michael Mauro noted another trend:  
"Democrats lead in ballot requests, with 115,017 compared to 92,128  
from Republicans -- but that margin is narrower than in previous  
elections. Some 42,178 ballots have been requested by voters who  
didn't declare a party preference," according to a dispatch from Des  
Moines by the Associated Press. "Democrats acknowledge their early  
voting lead is smaller than in previous years, but claimed their  
effort was better targeted on voters who are less likely to show up on  
Election Day." http://bit.ly/dehSUs