Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, Presented by Washington's NewsChannel 8: AFL-CIO polls show Senate shift - Dems unload on Stephen - GOP hopefuls rake it in - Monday stakes: Eye on Fiorina, Patrick - Blue America rips Bright - CAF runs turnout ads
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2010 05:36:10 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

POPPING THIS MORNING - LABOR'S LINE OF DEFENSE: AFL-CIO political director Karen Ackerman calls union voters "the firewall for candidates that support working families" in a new memo outlining Big Labor's efforts to shore up the Democratic House and Senate majorities. Declaring 75 Democratic seats in play, including 37 in high-union density districts, Ackerman argues: "Holding 60% of union dense districts means Republicans require 75% of the remaining seats for victory." Ackerman tallies up the AFL-CIO's efforts to date, reporting that the union giant has handed out 17.5 million leaflets at over 4,000 work sites, made 23.6 million phone calls, knocked on 1.3 million doors and mobilized thousands of volunteers and staff - with never-before-seen polling to prove the results: "For example, in Pennsylvania on Labor Day, Sestak had a slim 45% to 39% lead among union members. Since then, Sestak's lead has ballooned to 29 points (55% to 26%), a major reason Sestak trails Toomey by a single point in the most recent polls. Over the last month we have seen similar margins reached for Senators Reid, Boxer, Murray, Feingold and for Giannoulias's campaign. Union members in West Virginia know who is on their side, giving Governor Manchin a whopping 40 point margin." Read the full memo here. http://politi.co/bw7K0o  

GOV RACE PREVIEW - LIKE A TON O' GRANITE: Democrats are dropping a heavy negative ad on New Hampshire gubernatorial candidate John Stephen, linking him to a variety of criminal and shady characters and questioning his commitment to "public safety." The DGA-supported group Citizens for Strength and Security will run a commercial starting today that tells viewers: "If you care about public safety, call John Stephen." "When his campaign manager got a restraining order for stalking, John Stephen let him keep his job," the script warns. "When his campaign donor was convicted of conspiracy to commit arson, John Stephen tried to get him a pardon. And when convicted felons wanted to become foster parents, calling their friend John Stephen got it done." Stephen is mounting a stiffer-than-expected challenge to three-term Democratic Gov. John Lynch, and national Republicans including Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour and Bobby Jindal have thrown in their lots with his campaign. Watch the DGA-backed ad here: http://bit.ly/aJhOVp  

SENATE SNEAK PEEK - BLUNT'S COUNTERPUNCH: Missouri Rep. Roy Blunt's newest television spot is a health care- and Barack Obama-themed offensive against Democratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan, who targeted Blunt for his views on entitlements during their debates last week. "Robin Carnahan supports $500 billion in Medicare cuts," the ad says. "Why? Because Robin Carnahan puts Barack Obama's job-killing agenda ahead of Missouri jobs and seniors." Then, the commercial cuts to a still-made-for-TV clip of President Obama at a Carnahan fundraiser last summer, declaring: "It would already have been done, if I had Robin Carnahan there. Watch Blunt's ad here: http://bit.ly/d8ZLlj  

As Lisa Murkowski defends Alaska Dispatch, Jim Costa and Raul Grijalva pop up on the radar and Joe Biden keeps hope alive for John Callahan, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm election? 

MONDAY STAKES: There's just a little more than two weeks - 15 days - until Election Day. With Nov. 2 all but upon us, here's Morning Score's weekly list of the candidates and campaign actors that have the most to gain or lose in the week ahead: 

(1) Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who's tied (at best) in polling and even (at best) in money with the Republican opponent of his dreams, and who needs to hand in a much better performance this week than he did in his Thursday debate with Sharron Angle; (2) California Senate candidate Carly Fiorina, who was within one point of Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer in a surprise Reuters/Ipsos poll Friday, but who reported having less than a third of the cash reserve Boxer has to close the deal; (3) Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, who got a base-boosting visit from President Obama over the weekend and needs most everything to break his way to hold off Charlie Baker's campaign; (4) Washington Rep. Dave Reichert, who's looking more seriously endangered thanks to Democrat Suzan DelBene's rising poll numbers and the quarter-million dollars DelBene just put into her own campaign; (5) Florida gubernatorial candidates Alex Sink and Rick Scott, who have to move beyond their brutal air war and turn out the early vote - starting today - in the most important and competitive election left in the Sunshine State. 

MONEY WATCH - DNC KEEPS IT COMING: The Democratic National Committee has transferred $5.5 million to state parties and federal committees in the month of October, including a pair of $1.83 million donations to the DSCC and the DCCC. The DNC distributed another $1.83 million across state parties in Ohio ($500,000), Wisconsin ($300,000), Minnesota ($250,000), New Hampshire ($250,000), Oregon ($233,000), Maine ($200,000) and South Carolina ($100,000). Those are all states with high-value governor's races, including two takeover opportunities for Democrats. So far in 2010, the DNC has sent $20.24 million to committees and state parties as part of its $50 million Vote 2010 midterm campaign initiative. 

SHOTS FIRED - HARPOOTLIAN REACTS: South Carolina Democrats say the $100,000 in DNC money won't be nearly enough to make a difference in a competitive governor's race, POLITICO's Jonathan Martin reports:'We're very disappointed in Tim Kaine and the DNC and the DGA,' former South Carolina Democratic Chairman Dick Harpootlian told POLITICO. 'They're walking away from us and it just pisses me off. ... $100,000 is nothing.' Harpootlian suggested President Obama and his political advisers had forgotten about just how important South Carolina was to his being in the White House today." http://politi.co/aM38Mu  

** A message from Washington's NewsChannel 8: Comcast has hired a vast army of lobbyists to rush through the largest media merger in American history. The Comcast/NBC monopoly would present serious problems for local news in communities across our country. Washington's decision makers must resist the pressure from Comcast and take the necessary time to carefully review this controversial merger to protect the public interest. **MONEY WATCH - A RISING TIDE ... Republican challengers outraised more than 40 House incumbents last quarter and the GOP's top Senate candidates had $16 million more to spend on the final month of the campaign than their Democratic counterparts. The details: "In a particularly worrying sign for Democratic campaign officials, the list of incumbents who fell behind in raising funds includes members who were long thought to be safer, such as Colorado's John Salazar, who took in $442,000 to Republican Scott Tipton's $490,000, and Georgia's Jim Marshall, to raised $299,000 to Republican Austin Scott's $460,000. Mississippi's Gene Taylor took in $159,000 to Republican Stephen Palazzo's $311,000. Tennessee's Lincoln Davis and North Carolina's Mike McIntyre and Heath Shuler also collected less than their GOP challengers. Even senior committee members, who can usually rely on large infusions of donor cash, were outmatched." http://politi.co/9IV6kr  and http://politi.co/adDIXN  

THE AIR WAR - WHACK-A-MOLE: The DCCC has reserved ad time in the districts of California Rep. Jim Costa and Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva - a pair of Democratic-leaning seats that have popped up on watch lists thanks to the economy and the broader 2010 environment. Both districts broke for Obama in 2008 and neither Grijalva nor Costa has received less than 60 percent of the vote since 2004. 

MIND THE (ENTHUSIASM) GAP: The Campaign for America's Future is launching radio ads in select districts designed to boost Democratic turnout by reminding voters "about what Republicans did when they ran out country." The ad recalls: "They brought us to the brink of financial disaster. ... They allowed Wall Street and the banks to get out of control. ... Now Republicans are getting ready to trash Social security and Medicare. As if right years of damage weren't enough, they want to trash our future." The pro-Democratic group is running the ad in key swing-state cities: Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Madison, Allegheny, Erie and Philadelphia. Listen to it here: http://bit.ly/d16QT2  

AND - HIT FROM THE LEFT: Alabama Rep. Bobby Bright, already facing a tough challenge from the right in Republican Martha Roby, is getting hit from the left in an ad on black radio stations sponsored by Blue America PAC. The spot features a male voice and a female voice talking about Bright's record, and the man explains: "Bobby Bright votes with the Republicans and against our president every time ... He voted against extending unemployment benefits ... And he voted against mortgage foreclosure reform." The woman interjects: "So he voted to kick people out of their homes." "Bobby Bright: He doesn't vote for us," the man says, and the woman responds: "So we're not going to vote for him." The ad's signoff directs listeners to the website blueamerica.crooksandliars.com, which explains that Blue America PAC is designed to "promote activities commensurate with building a strong progressive Congress." http://bit.ly/b8k62c  

WEEKEND AT THE NRCC'S - The House GOP's campaign arm is up with a round of 37 commercials, including spots against Reps. Bishop of Georgia, Ben Chandler of Kentucky and Tim Walz of Minnesota. Watch 'em all here: http://bit.ly/9CBkcS  

CAMPAIGN CLICK: The DCCC will unveil a new website today, highlighting some of the GOP Young Guns' scandals, legal problems and other embarrassments. Two featured candidates are from the proud state of Ohio: Rich Iott, who was busted in a Nazi uniform, and Tom Ganley, who's been accused of sexual assault. http://bit.ly/a4aiem  

NOT A GOOD HEADLINE - "Miller security guards handcuff journalist" - From the Anchorage Daily News's Richard Mauer: "The editor of the Alaska Dispatch website was arrested by U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller's private security guards Sunday as the editor attempted to interview Miller at the end of a public event in an Anchorage school. Tony Hopfinger was handcuffed by the guards and detained in a hallway at Central Middle School until Anchorage police came and told the guards to release Hopfinger. Hopfinger has not been charged but the owner of the Drop Zone, the private security firm that's been providing Miller's security, accused Hopfinger of trespassing at the public event, a town hall sponsored by the Miller campaign. ...Anchorage Police who responded to the call said they would leave it to the District Attorney's office to decide whether to prosecute. They spent more than an hour taking statements, then left." http://bit.ly/akojYK  

MURKOWSKI ATTACKS - The senator blasts in a statement: "Joe Miller should immediately issue an apology to the editor of the Alaska Dispatch, a legitimate member of the Alaska press corps, who he had handcuffed by a private security firm. We call on him to immediately disavow the actions of his private security guards for violating the constitutional rights of a United States citizen by illegally detaining him. I find it alarming that Joe feels he needs to hire security forces to protect him from Alaskan voters and members of the press." 

TODAY - From the White House guidance: "[T]he Vice President will attend an event for Mayor John Callahan in Allentown, Pennsylvania. ... In the evening, the President will deliver remarks at a dinner for the DSCC at a private residence in Rockville, Maryland." First lady Michelle Obama is in Connecticut to campaign for Democratic Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal. 

DEBATE WRAP - The Lexington Herald-Leader reports: "A debate filled with unabashed personal attacks concluded Sunday night with Republican Rand Paul briskly brushing past Democrat Jack Conway, refusing to shake the hand of an opponent who raised questions about his religious beliefs. 'Jack, have you no decency? Have you no shame?' Paul asked Conway during the fourth of five scheduled debates between Kentucky's U.S. Senate candidates. ... Conway said the ad raises legitimate questions about Paul's values and repeatedly challenged Paul to answer two questions: why did he join a college society, the NoZe Brotherhood, that mocked Christianity, and when is it appropriate to tie up a woman and make her bow down to 'Aqua Buddha?'" http://bit.ly/bIAPvI  ... And from the Denver Post: "Republican Senate candidate Ken Buck suddenly elevated the culture wars from minor player to center stage in the Senate race ... Buck responded to a question from host David Gregory by saying that he believed homosexuality was a choice but had limited biological influences 'like alcoholism and some other things.' Buck said after the debate that he 'wasn't talking about being gay as a disease' ... Tough questioning by Gregory and a national television audience turned the debate into a significant and uneven test for both men, with Bennet struggling to explain his relationship to President Barack Obama's agenda and Buck defending a series of campaign flip-flops." http://bit.ly/c6i1Gi  Bennet's new ad popping overnight: http://bit.ly/c1BFH9  

COMING TODAY - MUST-SEE TV - Texas Tribune's Evan Smith got one-hour sit-downs with both Republican Gov. Rick Perry and Democratic challenger Bill White, with full video to post on the website today. Early peeks here http://bit.ly/cJQzqf   and here: http://bit.ly/a5h9EH  

HOUSE RACE SNAPSHOT - NEW YORK TRIAGE - Siena College has released numbers from four of the Empire State's most competitive districts in the last week, finding two incumbents in grave danger and two in somewhat stronger shape. In the danger zone are Rep. John Hall, who was at a three-point deficit to Republican ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth, and Rep. Bill Owens, who took 44 percent to GOP nominee Matt Doheny's 39 percent (and withdrawn-but-on-the-ballot Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman's 1 percent). Not quite on death watch: Reps. Tim Bishop and Dan Maffei, who had identical, 51 percent to 39 percent leads over their Republican challengers. Full results here: http://bit.ly/c2mb5C  

AND - TOP OF THE TICKET: New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is 35 points up on real estate developer and perpetual implosion machine Carl Paladino, running ahead 59 percent to 24 percent in a New York Times poll published Sunday. The two are set to debate tonight. http://nyti.ms/9buHX7  

** A message from Washington's NewsChannel 8: If the Comcast and NBC merger is rushed through the process, our country risks losing a powerful part of our democracy - locally-owned, independent voices in markets where Comcast/NBC will control both access to the home and multiple channels of news. Dropping the independent news voice won't serve the consumer. It will only serve the interests of Comcast which would also own the other news channels. Please make sure that any merger approval serves the public interest and protects the local news consumers you represent. Don't let Comcast ram this monopoly merger through the review process. **

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