Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, Presented by Washington's NewsChannel 8: Huckabee plans Iowa trip - DNC headed for big month - Senate campaign tightens - SEIU launches Pa. push - Dudley writes to POTUS - Working for Us PAC vs. Kirk
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2010 05:28:06 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

FIRST IN SCORE - BACK TO THE SCENE: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee plans to make a post-election trip to the first-in-the-nation presidential caucus state of Iowa, where he's slated to be the keynote speaker at the Iowa Family Policy Center's "Celebrate the Family" event on Nov. 21. A source familiar with Huckabee's plans said he'll speak "about the role of the church regarding God-honoring civics, the current assault on marriage and family, and what it means to be a Christian statesman." Iowa is a pivotal battleground in the fight over gay marriage this year: Social conservatives, including Huckabee endorser Bob Vander Plaats, are aiming to unseat members of the state Supreme Court who voted to legalize same-sex unions. News of Huckabee's trip comes days after the New York Times reported: "If they had to guess today, some in the White House say that Obama will find himself running against Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor." http://nyti.ms/d4I1xr  

MORE - HUCK'S PICKS - The 2008 Iowa caucus winner will endorse four more candidates this week: Illinois's Adam Kinzinger, the challenger for Rep. Debbie Halvorson; Washington's John Koster, who's challenging Rep. Rick Larsen; Virginia auto dealer Scott Rigell, running against Rep. Glenn Nye; and Missouri's Vicky Hartzler, the GOP nominee against House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton. 

SENATE SNEAK PEEK - LABOR PULLS THE TRIGGER: Pennsylvania Republican Pat Toomey and Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk are in the crosshairs of two union-backed campaign offensives this week. In Pennsylvania, the SEIU plans to announce a $2 million election push that will include an "aggressive" turnout program for Democratic Senate nominee Joe Sestak and gubernatorial candidate Dan Onorato. Half of that sum has already been spent, while the rest will go toward mailings, phone-banking, canvassing and more. In Illinois, the pro-Democratic Working for Us PAC is running a tough ad against Kirk with support from the SEIU and American Federation of Teachers. The ad, produced by Saul Shorr, takes voters on a trip down memory lane and ties Kirk to President George W. Bush. "Let's go back in time: George Bush was president and Mark Kirk was his yes man," the narrator recalls. "What did we get? The worst recession in 50 years." Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/ddCEPi  

As Barney Frank scrambles, Roy Blunt gets Gloria Allred-ed and Peter Hart calls it a Category 4, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections. 

MONEY WATCH - NO LETTING UP: The Democratic National Committee raised $11.1 million in the first 13 days of October, according to a report the DNC will file Thursday. That puts the committee well on its way to outpacing the almost $17 million it will report raising in September - an impressive sum that's nearly a million dollars more than the monthly haul the DNC initially announced. DNC communications director Brad Woodhouse puts the numbers in context: "As the President has been traveling the country firing up voters, and as the Republican plan to take us back to the failed policies that nearly wrecked our economy has become clear, our fund raising has taken off. And, while Republicans are scaling back their field and voter contact efforts, we are spending more than ever on efforts turnout normally reliable midterm and surge voters." 

PLUS - WHAT IT PAYS FOR: The DNC's putting up a new ad as early as today, hammering away at the message that shadowy groups are trying to "buy an election." "All from secret donors," the ad warns. "What's not a secret is why. Republicans and their corporate buddies want to be back in charge." http://bit.ly/9wOFEP  

** A message from Washington's NewsChannel 8: Comcast has hired a vast army of lobbyists to rush through the largest media merger in American history. The Comcast/NBC monopoly would present serious problems for local news in communities across our country. Washington's decision makers must resist the pressure from Comcast and take the necessary time to carefully review this controversial merger to protect the public interest. **TODAY - From the White House guidance: "At 10:30 AM PDT, the Vice President will deliver remarks at a rally for Senator Harry Reid in Reno, Nevada. ... In the afternoon, the President will travel to Portland, Oregon. The departure from the South Lawn and the arrival at Portland Air National Guard Station are open press. In the evening, the President will deliver remarks at a rally at the Oregon Convention Center." Obama's in the state to boost Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Kitzhaber, who's in a very close race with Republican ex-NBA player Chris Dudley. 

SPEAKING OF WHOM - DEAR MR. PRESIDENT - Dudley has penned an open letter to Obama that's running as a print advertisement in The Oregonian today. The missive focuses on education, and the Republican aligns himself with the Obama administration's reform agenda. "With Oregon schools ranked 43rd in the nation for quality, I applaud your efforts to challenge the status quo and improve public schools not only in Oregon, but across the nation," Dudley writes. "Oregon failed in its effort to compete in the 'Race to the Top' reform initiative you and Education Secretary Arne Duncan have spearheaded. ... As Governor, I know we won't agree on every issue. But, you can be sure that I will work with you on the issue of education reform." Read the full letter here: http://bit.ly/d0XO9Z  

THE BIG TREND -- EVERYTHING CLOSES: Don't look now, but virtually every near-toss-up in the battle for the Senate just got even closer, according to a set of polls released in the last few days. Some of that is better-than-expected news for Democrats: PPP and the Morning Call have Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak leaping to a tiny leads over Pat Toomey, and PPP also shows Elaine Marshall closing North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr's advantage to eight points. A Reuters/Ipsos poll has Ken Buck's lead in the Colorado Senate down to three points and a Democratic internal puts Kentucky Senate candidate Jack Conway two points ahead of Rand Paul. Both Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan and Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold have also fared better in new public surveys this week. But while the polling gods giveth, they also taketh away: PPP has Washington Senate candidate Dino Rossi cutting Sen. Patty Murray's edge to two points and a Republican poll actually put Carly Fiorina three points ahead of California Sen. Barbara Boxer. That's after a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed a one-point race in the Golden State last Friday. And the more polling that comes out of West Virginia, the more than 10-point Joe Manchin lead last week looks like an outlier. Catch up at the POLITICO polling center here: http://politi.co/bidbOP  

SCORE'S TAKE - WHAT IT ALL MEANS: Add 'em all up, and two opposite scenarios BOTH just got more likely: (1) That Republicans take control of the Senate, and (2) that Democrats hold their losses to a bare minimum. 

THE HOUSE LANDSCAPE - POLL OF THE DAY - Republicans hold a seven-point advantage on the generic ballot, according to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, in a four-point improvement over their position last month. NBC reports: "The GOP's current seven-point lead, [GOP pollster Bill] McInturff observes, is on pace - historically - to result in a shift of power in Congress. 'The Democrats, with two weeks left, are facing very, very difficult arithmetic.' Yet among the wider universe of registered voters, Democrats hold a two-point edge, 46 to 44 percent, which is up from the 44 percent to 44 percent tie in September." Said Dem pollster Peter Hart: "It's hard to say that the Democrats are facing anything less than a Category 4 hurricane." http://bit.ly/aj8K11  

IN THE STORM - FRANK BRACES: Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank has loaned his campaign $200,000 as he works to fend of GOP challenger Sean Bielat. POLITICO's Jake Sherman relays the news: "A campaign finance report filed Tuesday showed that Frank, the chairman of the powerful House Financial Services committee, lent himself the money Tuesday. Frank, a 15-term lawmaker from Newton, Mass., raised $316,644 last quarter and reported more than $1 million on hand with no debts. ... A longtime public servant, Frank isn't exactly a rich man. Financial disclosures filed with the House show he has assets between $560,000 and $1.5 million." http://politi.co/asiUxT  

HOUSE RACE SNAPSHOT - TRIVEDI ON TARGET: Pennsylvania congressional candidate Manan Trivedi, challenging Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach in his Philadelphia-area district, is going up with a new ad emphasizing his pledge to take a pay cut if elected to the House. "If Congress were listening to us, they wouldn't give tax breaks for outsourcing our jobs, or take pay raises and then vote against the minimum wage," Trivedi says in the ad. "When Jim Gerlach went to Washington, he stopped listening and did it anyway." Watch the spot here: http://bit.ly/cAA0dA  

DEBATE WRAP - The Sun-Times covered the latest Illinois Senate duel: "Rep. Mark Kirk would not say whether he made up his story about being shot at while serving overseas in the military. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias could not name a single government program he would cut. ...Both candidates acknowledged that the campaign has been 'negative' and 'brutal.'" ... And The State reports on the South Carolina gubernatorial debate: "Democratic state Sen. Vincent Sheheen and Republican state Rep. Nikki Haley on Tuesday differed on how to reform K-12 and higher education, the use of taxes and other incentives to attract jobs and illegal-immigration laws. ... Much of the debate was personal, with the candidates vigorously questioning each other's sources of income and legislative record." http://bit.ly/bjxF9a  and http://bit.ly/aYqA5h  

NEVADA BULLETIN - HOW SHE SPENT IT: So what exactly did Republican Senate candidate Sharron Angle do with the $14 million she raised last quarter? Salon dug through the FEC reports and breaks it down: "[B]y Salon's analysis, [the Angle campaign] spent $5.3 million on direct mail printing, postage, and fundraising consulting. The campaign says its direct mail efforts brought in $9 million out of the total $14 million raised. ... By our analysis, the campaign also spent well over $4.4 million on TV and online ad buys. It spent a total of $12 million out of the $14 million it raised. Many of the firms that were major recipients of Angle campaign dollars are little-known outfits based in Washington and Virginia. Patton-Kiehl Group in Thornburg, Virginia, for example, was paid about $1.5 million for direct mail postage and printing. The Greenwood, Indiana-based Prosper Group was paid about $370,000 for fundraising consulting." http://bit.ly/c41Gbe  

BUT - TOUGH CROWD - All that money can't necessarily buy friendly press coverage, as this see-it-to-believe it front page from the Las Vegas Sun shows. Angle's had a tough week in the media, as she's awkwardly distanced herself from a campaign ad that included a menacing picture of illegal immigrants. Worth the click: http://bit.ly/a6zv9C  

THREE MAKES A TREND - Missouri Rep. Roy Blunt is the latest Republican to face late-in-the-game accusations that he employed an illegal worker. The state Democratic Party delivered the hit, the Kansas City Star reports: "The documents released Tuesday include a letter from Blunt, on state letterhead, asking then-INS Commissioner Gene McNary to address a case involving Dora Narvaez. Narvaez, the Blunt letter said, had 'done some work' for Blunt's wife at the time, Roseann." Blunt's campaign dismissed the attack as "dirty, desperate politics." http://bit.ly/dqaJ5r  

RECOMMENDED READING - THE 2010 STAKES: Claremont McKenna's Rose Institute has begun publishing a series of reports on the impact redistricting will have in Ohio - which could lose "potentially more [seats] than any other state in the country." From the debut installment: "Each of the five seats currently with the smallest population are held by Democrats who will likely win their elections in 2010. This means that regardless of who controls redistricting, these Democratic seats are going to see a lot of change. On the other end of the spectrum, four of the five seats with the largest population are held by Republicans and the fifth is the 15th district, which Republicans have a good chance of winning in 2010." http://bit.ly/bzD5Qi  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I believe I would have been well prepared for the debate." - Former New York Rep. Rick Lazio, reflecting on his state's circus-like gubernatorial debate Monday night http://nyti.ms/b86Xl2  

** A message from Washington's NewsChannel 8: If the Comcast and NBC merger is rushed through the process, our country risks losing a powerful part of our democracy - locally-owned, independent voices in markets where Comcast/NBC will control both access to the home and multiple channels of news. Dropping the independent news voice won't serve the consumer. It will only serve the interests of Comcast which would also own the other news channels. Please make sure that any merger approval serves the public interest and protects the local news consumers you represent. Don't let Comcast ram this monopoly merger through the review process. **

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