Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Washington's NewsChannel 8: Rubio unveils closing argument - Fiorina vs. Boxer 'legacy' - Trumka mails personal appeal - Martinez rips Richardson - Cao getting crushed - Hurt ad: 'They keep stealing'
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2010 05:36:14 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

POLLING SIREN - "The verdict: Independents side with Republicans" - Republicans now lead the generic ballot by 5 percentage points, 47 percent to 42 percent, and have taken a 14-point lead among independent voters in a POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll. POLITICO's James Hohmann and Jim VandeHei report: "Republicans are on the verge of broad wins next week for one big reason: independent voters are ready to boot Democrats from office ... Expressing deep dissatisfaction with President Obama's policies and performance, independents have increasingly sided with conservatives in the belief that government grew too large, too fast under Obama-and that it can no longer be trusted. ... The swing among independents rivals the emergence of the spirited Tea Party movement as one of the most important changes in American politics over the past 20 months." Read on here: http://politi.co/b0lPG7  and here: http://politi.co/bYn0Ah  

SENATE SNEAK PEEK - RUBIO'S FINAL ARGUMENT: Florida Senate candidate Marco Rubio, fresh off a powerful performance in Sunday's CNN debate, will launch a five-day bus tour and a new television ad to close out his campaign on a positive note. "After all the noise and false attacks, this election is still about one thing: Will our children inherit a diminished country or will we leave them a stronger, more prosperous America?" Rubio says in the ad. "We have to challenge Washington. We have to change the direction of our country. And I'm asking for your vote so we can start now." Rubio held a wide, 15-point lead over his nearest competitor - independent Gov. Charlie Crist - in an Ipsos poll published Sunday. His bus tour, branded the "Road to Reclaim America" swing, will take him on a Lawton Chiles-esque route from Pensacola to Miami starting on Wednesday. Watch the commercial here: http://bit.ly/cGzzWR  

AND - FIORINA'S CLOSING SHOT: The former Hewlett-Packard CEO is going up with a dark new ad against Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, showing images of Californians out of work and charging: "Barbara Boxer failed to protect California jobs." Over black-and-white photos of anxious-looking voters, a narrator intones: "Trillions in deficits. Billions in Taxes. Our hopes crushed by Washington. The legacy of Barbara Boxer." Then, with some slightly more upbeat piano music, Fiorina appears on screen and the narrator explains: "We can change Washington, but not unless we change the people we send there." Fiorina put another $1 million of her own money into the Senate race last week, as a survey from the Public Policy Institute of California put her 5 points back from Boxer. Watch the new statewide ad here. http://bit.ly/cQWiZm  

As Susana Martinez keeps swinging, Georgia Dems root the other way and Joe Biden hits a lucky number, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections. 

MONDAY STAKES - The countdown clock is finally in the single digits and there are just 8 days left until Election Day. Here's Morning Score's penultimate take on which candidates and campaign actors have the most to gain or lose in the next few days: 

(1) Colorado Senate candidate Ken Buck, who had an unsteady performance last week as Democrats blitzed him with their harshest negative ads yet, and who's now evenly matched with Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in public polling; (2) Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, the Democratic nominee for governor of Pennsylvania, who closed quickly on Republican state Attorney General Tom Corbett in two recent polls but has barely any time to make up the rest of the gap; (3) Alaska Senate candidate Scott McAdams, who needs to make a bigger play than we've seen so far from his quirky, but basically conventional campaign, if he wants to compete with GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski for the anybody-but-Joe Miller vote; (4) The front-running gaffe machines - think Miller, Jerry Brown, Mark Dayton and a good percentage of all the House candidates in the country - who are thisclose to winning, if they can avoid getting knocked off message. (For most of them, that sentence could end "...again."); (5) The four federal campaign committee chairmen - Reps. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland and Pete Sessions of Texas, and Sens. Robert Menendez of New Jersey and John Cornyn of Texas - whose bright careers will turn, fairly or unfairly, on the last-minute tactical decisions they make about where to spend money in the final hours of the campaign. 

** A message from Washington's NewsChannel 8: Comcast has hired a vast army of lobbyists to rush through the largest media merger in American history. The Comcast/NBC monopoly would present serious problems for local news in communities across our country. Washington's decision makers must resist the pressure from Comcast and take the necessary time to carefully review this controversial merger to protect the public interest. **LEAVE NO MAILBOX BEHIND: The AFL-CIO is carpeting the country with 10 million mail pieces this week designed to get out the labor vote, hitting households with slate cards - they show the full list of candidates the union has endorsed - and letters from AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka. "As I write this letter, the big banks, the outsourcers and even foreign interests are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into campaigns to smear and defeat pro-union candidates," Trumka writes in one of two messages reaching union members. "My message is simple. As bad as things are they can get a whole lot worse. And it is up to you, me and every union member to make sure they don't succeed. On Tuesday, get mad, and do something about it. Stand up for a fair break for working families. Go to the polls and vote." The AFL-CIO mailers include information about polling places and voter ID laws - and bring the union's total mail traffic this cycle to 28.6 million pieces. See an Illinois slate card here: http://politi.co/cWG1ki ; and Trumka's letters here: http://politi.co/9B9qlW  and here: http://politi.co/bah0Tg  

PLUS - TRUMKA TOMORROW: The labor leader will rally union members for Senate Majority leader Harry Reid's reelection campaign Tuesday in Reno. There, he'll go on the attack against Reid's GOP challenger, blasting: "Sharron Angle doesn't know the first thing about how to get America back on track. She called jobless workers 'spoiled.' She apologized to BP after the oil spill! She dreams of dismantling Social Security. ... Are you going to let corporate CEOs buy Harry Reid's seat?" 

POPPING IN NEW MEXICO - WITH BOTH BARRELS: Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez is launching a last salvo against Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, airing a new radio ad and a television spot tying her to outgoing Gov. Bill Richardson. "Richardson-Denish had eight years. ... They made pay-to-play a household term and gave 50,000 driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. Now, Denish says don't expect a change in direction," the television ad says, cutting to a clip of Denish arguing: "The best predictor of future behavior is what you've already done." "She's right," the ad closes, "and we can't afford four more years of the same." On the radio, Martinez's campaign is going after Denish with a familiar line of attack: Her husband's lobbying business. "Denish had a financial interest in an out-of-state corporation that received a $500 million tax deal" the narrator charges, adding that Denish's husband lobbied for the company in question. Listen to the radio ad here: http://bit.ly/bt3Afd  ; and watch the TV spot here: http://bit.ly/apth2d  

HOUSE RACE EXCLUSIVE I - PUTTING THE HURT ON: Virginia state Sen. Robert Hurt, under attack from the DCCC over his legislative record, is striking back with an ad branding incumbent Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello as the "White House's favorite congressman." President Barack Obama plays a starring role, as the spot shows him declaring: "There's a candidate in Virginia, Tom Perriello, who's a great guy." A narrator ticks off statistics detailing job losses in the district and rising national debt, before running a clip Perriello himself saying: "If you don't tie our hands, we will keep stealing." "They keep stealing our money and taking our jobs," the narrator cuts in, before closing: "Tom Perriello - he's their Congressman, not ours." Watch the ad here. http://bit.ly/9XMByC  

HOUSE RACE EXCLUSIVE II - RICHMOND ROLLS: Louisiana state Rep. Cedric Richmond is poised to blow away GOP Rep. Joseph Cao next Tuesday, and now holds a 17-point lead in polling conducted for Richmond's campaign. Richmond leads Cao, 49 percent to 32 percent, reports the Democratic firm Anzalone Liszt, expanding on the 10-point advantage he held last month. John Anzalone and Zac McCrary write in the polling memo: "In the past month, Richmond's lead has grown while Cao's share of the vote has decreased - indicating the momentum is with Richmond. Beyond Richmond's existing double-digit lead, the 2nd District is poised to break strongly for Democrats up and down the 2010 ballot. ... With Charlie Melancon overwhelmingly leading David Vitter among 2nd District voters in the U.S. Senate race (62% Melancon / 26% Vitter), the top of the 2010 ticket will also benefit the Richmond campaign." Another poll taken for the Orleans Parish Democratic Executive Committee, by the firm Zata 3 Consulting, showed Richmond leading by an identical, 17-point margin, 53 percent to 36 percent. Read the full Anzalone memo here. http://politi.co/atOVCM  

TODAY - From the White House guidance: "In the evening, the President will deliver remarks at a DCCC reception at the Rhode Island Convention Center in Providence, Rhode Island. ... Later, the President will deliver remarks at a dinner for the DCCC at a private residence in Providence, Rhode Island." And for the VP: "In the morning, the Vice President will travel to Orlando, Florida. Afterwards, the Vice President will travel to Nashua, New Hampshire. At 4:15 PM, he will attend an event for Congressional candidate Ann McLane Kuster. This will be the Vice President's 100th event for 2010 candidates." 

BRACE YOURSELF - "Judge orders Miller documents released" - From Kyle Hopkins of the Anchorage Daily News: "A judge ruled Saturday that the Fairbanks North Star Borough must release personnel records of U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller. In an unusual weekend hearing, retired Superior Court Judge Winston Burbank ruled that the public's right to know about candidates outweighed Miller's right to privacy. 'I hold that although Mr. Miller has a legitimate expectation of privacy in those documents, Mr. Miller's right to privacy is indeed outweighed by the public's significant interest in the background of a public figure who is running for the U.S. Senate,' the judge said. ... Burbank ordered that nothing actually will be released until Tuesday afternoon, however, to allow for the ruling to be appealed to the Alaska Supreme Court. ... Among the documents being sought are details of Miller's resignation from the borough job last year, and any disciplinary actions taken against him while employed." http://bit.ly/d3ty7Q  

ALSO IN ALASKA - PLAYING IT SAFE: The NRSC is up with its first negative ad against Democrat Scott McAdams, warning that "the Washington liberals are bankrupting our country, yet Scott McAdams supports their higher-taxes, big-government agenda." McAdams has trailed Murkowski and Miller in public polling, but an ugly fight between the two Republicans could still leave an opening for him to sneak up the middle. http://bit.ly/cbTbHC  

MOVEMENT IN ILLINOIS - THE 'MEET' EFFECT? Republican Rep. Mark Kirk is now 3 points ahead of Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in the state's Senate race, taking a 44 percent to 41 percent in the newest Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll. That's a 5-point swing in Kirk's direction since the last poll, when Giannoulias was up by 2 percent. The Tribune breaks down how Kirk's ads have moved the dial: "In the Republican-leaning collar counties, Kirk now holds a 55 percent to 30 percent edge over Giannoulias ... Kirk's support among independents increased from 38 percent to 50 percent, the poll showed, while Giannoulias' backing among unaligned voters was relatively stagnant at about 28 percent. ... Trust has been a central campaign theme on both sides, and voters' views on the two candidates have changed since the end of last month. Back then, 35 percent of voters considered Giannoulias more honest and trustworthy, compared with 30 percent for Kirk. The latest survey showed 36 percent of voters felt Kirk was more honest and trustworthy, compared with 31 percent for Giannoulias." Kirk will pick up an endorsement today from Dr. Willie Wilson, an African-American business leader who will call Kirk "a proven leader with a record of independence" http://bit.ly/bHAbsq  

POLLING TICKER - Close: Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is 4 points up against GOP challenger Charlie Baker, leading 43 percent to 39 percent, with independent Tim Cahill at 8 percent http://bit.ly/a2usd3 ... Closer: Former Ohio Rep. John Kasich holds a 49 percent to 47 percent edge over Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, in a slight tightening of the race since the end of September http://bit.ly/9fAYS2 ... Closest: Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak have been trading margin-of-error leads in the Allentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll over the last week, with the last snapshot of the race showing Toomey up 46 percent to 43 percent http://bit.ly/d43BtD  

JENSEN TEASES - The PPP-ster previews on Twitter: "Started up in Kentucky last night, strong sentiment in state that 'Aqua Buddha' ad was not appropriate ... Dan Maes down to 5% in our CO Gov poll. That's why this race is getting interesting ... Looks like the only suspense in California will be about Prop 19" http://bit.ly/9g8bfu  

WEEKEND MUST-READ - PAST THE BUZZER? The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Jim Galloway has broached the unthinkable: A 2010 campaign stretching on for weeks past Election Day. "[W]e could have a runoff for governor," he declared over the weekend. "Conventional wisdom and house odds say a mano a mano runoff for governor on Nov. 30 would simply delay the inevitable. No Democrat has ever won the second statewide round ... But unconventional wisdom says there remains a narrow path for [former Gov.] Barnes to win a runoff. This is why you've seen some Georgia Democrats begin to root for Republicans to take over the U.S. House - and maybe the U.S. Senate, too. ... [S]ome GOP voters might feel their duty done, just as African-American voters in Georgia, once Barack Obama was elected president in '08, gave Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss a pass in his U.S. Senate runoff against Democrat Jim Martin." http://bit.ly/bzXiO1  

** A message from Washington's NewsChannel 8: If the Comcast and NBC merger is rushed through the process, our country risks losing a powerful part of our democracy - locally-owned, independent voices in markets where Comcast/NBC will control both access to the home and multiple channels of news. Dropping the independent news voice won't serve the consumer. It will only serve the interests of Comcast which would also own the other news channels. Please make sure that any merger approval serves the public interest and protects the local news consumers you represent. Don't let Comcast ram this monopoly merger through the review process. **

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