Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Washington's NewsChannel 8: Dueling attacks in Wis. - Last pitches from Carnahan, Blunt - La. Dems launch searing Vitter ads - Pence could jump - Just 3 Senate toss-ups
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2010 05:48:10 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

FIRST IN SCORE - SPOTLIGHT ON WISCONSIN - Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold and Republican challenger Ron Johnson are going up with a pair of dueling ads that frame the choice before voters in crisp, negative terms: Between a slippery, conservative tycoon and a hard-core liberal partisan. Let's roll the videotape ... 

FROM JOHNSON: The Republican plastic manufacturer, who leads in the polls, is targeting Feingold in an ad with a Tina Fey-friendly title: "Mavericky." It opens with a clip of the Democrat giving a fired-up speech to a party convention, calling himself "the number one maverick and independent in the entire United States Senate." But then the cheering crowd stops and a narrator cuts in: "Not really." The script continues - "Feingold went along with all the other mavericks for the government takeover of health care" - as a series of Senate roll calls appear on the screen, with Feingold's name highlighted under the "Yeas" column each time. "Let's get serious," the ad ends. "Russ Feingold a maverick? Not anymore." Watch the ad here: http://bit.ly/aQuFkA  

AND FROM FEINGOLD: The Democrat is sticking by his independent rep, with a spot showing a group of voters - all women - questioning Johnson's agenda. "There's a reason why Ron Johnson won't tell us what he plans to do in Washington," the first woman says, as others continue: "More tax cuts for millionaires like himself ... More control for insurance companies ... More power for corporate special interests." Then, the ad turns positive: "Russ Feingold has never been afraid to say we need a lot less of all that," one speaker says, as others chime in: "What we need more of in Washington is exactly what we've got in Russ ... Independence, and the courage to do what is right." Watch the ad here: http://bit.ly/9IXHm4  

As Michele Bachmann debates, Prop 19 fades and President Obama mounts a rescue mission to Charlottesville, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily cheat sheet for the 2010 midterm elections. 

POLITICO SNEAK PEEK - GETTING IT OUT: The AFL-CIO will launch a four-day voter turnout program starting this Saturday, which mobilizes 90,000 volunteers at 1,200 locations to get union members to the polls. All told, the effort will involve 5.6 million phone calls, 4.1 million door-to-door visits and 1.9 million fliers passed out at 2,500 work sites. AFL-CIO political director Karen Ackerman explains in a statement: "Turnout will be decisive in many of these races and our 'Final Four' GOTV program is going to hold the line for candidates who fight for working families." The top three AFL-CIO officials - Richard Trumka, Liz Shuler and Arlene Holt Baker - will visit seven states in the last days of the election, including Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Kentucky, California, Colorado and Connecticut. 

** A message from Washington's NewsChannel 8: Comcast has hired a vast army of lobbyists to rush through the largest media merger in American history. The Comcast/NBC monopoly would present serious problems for local news in communities across our country. Washington's decision makers must resist the pressure from Comcast and take the necessary time to carefully review this controversial merger to protect the public interest. **SENATE PREVIEW I - MISSOURI FIREFIGHT: Missouri Senate candidates Robin Carnahan and Roy Blunt are set to release two new ads that frame their campaign as sharply as the Feingold-Johnson spots define the race in Wisconsin. On the one hand, the underdog Carnahan wraps her campaign in the endorsements of Missouri's biggest newspapers, calling herself a fighter for the state and Blunt a tool of special interests. "Missouri's two largest newspapers endorse Robin Carnahan, calling her 'part of the solution,'" the ad says, citing the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the Kansas City Star. "Papers warn us about Roy Blunt, saying 'his political independence is clearly suspect. Blunt's been 'all too willing to play ball with lobbyists and special interests.'" On the other hand, Blunt continues calling the race a contest between a Washington-style Democrat and a Republican with different ideas. "Missouri and America are heading in the wrong direction. Robin Carnahan supports a failing Washington agenda, taking our country down the wrong path. It doesn't have to be this way," the narrator says, relaying some of Blunt's policy proposals and calling him, "Roy Blunt: A strong voice for change." Watch the ad here: http://bit.ly/aHzfJ8   and here: http://bit.ly/c5AfNr  

SENATE PREVIEW II - USING EVERY ROUND: The Louisiana Democratic Party is hoping to inflict late damage on Sen. David Vitter with a radio campaign featuring a rape survivor who confronted the Republican at a town hall meeting last year. Jennie Waldrop challenged Vitter on his vote against a measure barring the government from contracting with companies that keep employees charged with crimes - including rape - out of court. "For me, putting my attacker behind bars meant everything. But many women are denied that opportunity for justice," Waldrop says in the radio commercial. "An American contractor in Iraq named Jamie Leigh Jones was raped by her coworkers. When she told her employer, they locked her in a cargo container. She filed suit, but the law didn't allow it. Then Congress tried to change the law, David Vitter - my senator - voted against it." The ad will "blanket the airwaves," according to a source familiar with the buy, and it will be targeted at women. Waldrop's last line: "David Vitter is a man unfit to be my senator." Stay tuned for the full ad ... 

THE 2012 SCORE - "Mike Pence may leave GOP leadership" - POLITICO's Ben Smith and Jake Sherman report: "House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence of Indiana is considering stepping down from his post in the GOP leadership in preparation for a possible bid for president or governor in 2012. Pence, a darling of the conservative movement, would leave the leadership job with a blunt explanation to colleagues that he can't commit to a two-year term in House leadership, a source familiar with his deliberations told POLITICO Tuesday. Pence believes it would be inappropriate to stay at the GOP conference post - the No. 3 spot in the House Republican hierarchy - unless he could stay through 2012, the source said. ... Pence was the winner of the presidential straw poll at last month's Values Voter Summit, showing that he's attracted a lot of buzz within the social conservative movement." http://politi.co/cYnSNk  

AND - From Andy Barr, "Barbour sprinkles $440K in 2010 races" - "Mississippi's Republican Gov. Haley Barbour has spread $440,000 among dozens of candidates and groups at the national and state level, his PAC announced Tuesday. In total, Barbour's Haley's PAC has donated money to 25 gubernatorial candidates, 31 Senate candidates, 23 House candidates, 15 state Republican parties, two national GOP committees and two Mississippi state Republican committees. ... The potential 2012 GOP presidential candidate also spread some of his money around early primary states." http://politi.co/d67mZX  

TODAY - From the White House guidance: "In the morning, the Vice President will travel to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. At 11:00 AM, the Vice President will deliver remarks at a rally for Congressional candidate Bryan Lentz." Coming soon - the Patriot Ledger reports: "Vice President Joseph Biden is planning to make a stop in Quincy on Saturday to weigh in on the 10th Congressional race. Biden plans to attend a morning rally for Democrat William Keating, a source close to the campaign confirmed" http://bit.ly/cjBz0F  

PLUS - THIS FRIDAY - "President Barack Obama will travel to Charlottesville, VA to headline a campaign event for Congressman Tom Perriello." UVA's Larry Sabato explains why on Twitter: "If Perriello pulls his second consecutive upset, Obama can claim credit for generating big GOTV in liberal university area. ... If Perriello loses, POTUS won't be 'hurt'. The R, Robert Hurt, was thought to be ahead anyway. Obama lost VA-5 in '08 while TP won by 727." http://bit.ly/dwTHKD  

POLLS OF THE DAY - THE FIELD NARROWS: The Senate races in Kentucky and California have grown markedly less competitive, according to a set of polls released Tuesday, diminishing the odds that Republicans could take a majority or that Democrats could pick up even one GOP-held seat. In Kentucky, Rand Paul nearly doubled his lead over Democratic state Attorney General Jack Conway in a new PPP poll, moving from a 7-point advantage to a 13-point advantage. In the aftermath of the infamous "Aqua Buddha" ad, Conway's favorability rating is now at negative 13 percent. In California, both PPP and Suffolk University have exactly the same take on the race: Sen. Barbara Boxer leads challenger Carly Fiorina by 9 points, 52 percent to 43 percent. PPP's Tom Jensen explains why: "Fiorina simply has not proven to be a formidable candidate. 49% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of her to 38% with a favorable one. It's not impossible to win as a Republican in California, but it is impossible to win as an unpopular Republican." http://bit.ly/bNZJi1  and http://bit.ly/ctCdNg  

SCORE'S TAKE - WHAT THAT REALLY MEANS: If we assume that every state where one party is leading breaks in that direction next Tuesday, that leaves only three genuine Senate toss-ups: Colorado, where several polls have shown a tie game; and Washington and Pennsylvania, where conflicting surveys make it hard to say exactly who's ahead in two close races. 

ELSEWHERE IN CALIFORNIA - PPP and Suffolk both showed Democrat Jerry Brown poised to beat Meg Whitman in the governor's race, and Suffolk checked in on other important state contests: "In the race for Attorney General, Democrat Kamala Harris barely leads Republican Steve Cooley 35 percent to 34 percent, although Cooley led among early voters. ... Current issues in California that were polled included Proposition 19, which proposes to legalize marijuana for personal use by people 21 years or older. When asked if they support or oppose Proposition 19, 40 percent of likely voters said they supported the bill, 55 percent of likely voters said they opposed the legalization of marijuana, and only 6 percent of likely voters remain undecided on the issue." http://bit.ly/ctCdNg  

AND - CARLY'S CONDITION - The Fiorina campaign released an evening update on the candidate's health, after she was hospitalized for an infection earlier in the day. Said chief of staff Deborah Bowker: "Carly has received treatment for the infection related to the reconstructive surgery she underwent in July after her winning battle with breast cancer. The doctors tending to her care will observe her overnight and are taking every precaution to ensure that she can return to her busy campaign schedule." 

DEBATE WRAP - GOVS EDITION - The Charleston Post and Courier reports on the last Haley-Sheheen debate, writing that both candidates "clearly want voters to associate their opponent with someone else. ... In Haley's case, she reminds voters that Sheheen is a Democrat just like President Barack Obama. ... Since their campaign began this summer, Sheheen never has mentioned the claims of extra-marital affairs that two GOP insiders lodged against Haley just before the June primary, claims she repeatedly has denied. But by often alluding to [Gov. Mark] Sanford, the association of marital infidelity is there." ... And the Providence Journal spotlights the Rhode Island debate, a day after Democrat Frank Caprio's "shove it" comment: "'I stand by my words,' [Caprio] said. When asked if it was appropriate to speak that way about the president, Caprio, the state general treasurer and a former state lawmaker, said his response was a 'political answer to a political action.' ... 'It didn't make any sense,' said [independent Lincoln] Chafee, the former U.S. senator who served with Mr. Obama and endorsed him in 2008. ... [Republican John] Robitaille said Caprio behaved like a 'petulant little child' who 'did not get his own way.'" http://bit.ly/cBiEIm  and http://bit.ly/bh5uMc  

PLUS - HOUSE RACE SPECIAL - Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann debated Democratic state Sen. Tarryl Clark and independent Bob Anderson last night, the Star-Tribune reports: "Clark frequently tackled Bachmann's record in Congress, zeroing in on what she said was Bachmann's lack of attention to the district. She also criticized Bachmann for attacking stimulus spending but nonetheless sending letters in support of local stimulus projects. ... Bachmann took aim at both former President George W. Bush and President Obama over the national debt. ... 'Were we in a mess? Yes,' Bachmann said. 'But when you're in a hole, you don't dig it down even further.'" http://bit.ly/9zjg4e  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "If I had your hair I would have been president." - Vice President Biden, to a Democratic campaign volunteer in New York. 

** A message from Washington's NewsChannel 8: If the Comcast and NBC merger is rushed through the process, our country risks losing a powerful part of our democracy - locally-owned, independent voices in markets where Comcast/NBC will control both access to the home and multiple channels of news. Dropping the independent news voice won't serve the consumer. It will only serve the interests of Comcast which would also own the other news channels. Please make sure that any merger approval serves the public interest and protects the local news consumers you represent. Don't let Comcast ram this monopoly merger through the review process. **

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