Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Indies favor health care repeal - Three lead for DCCC post - Larsen, Connolly survive - Manchin shoots down party switch - Poll: Hatch numbers weak - GOP circles Bill Nelson
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 9 Nov 2010 05:27:05 -0500 (EST)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

COMING TODAY - POLITICO's Jonathan Martin reports: "Independent voters moved decisively to the Republican Party in last week's election and are more sympathetic to the GOP on a host of policy questions, according to a new national poll. Unaffiliated voters overwhelmingly think the country is on the wrong track, largely disapprove of President Obama's performance, and a plurality said they were voting for Republicans mostly to offer a check on the president and the Democratic majority. 'This wave as driven by independents voting for Republicans,' said GOP pollster Whit Ayres of his party's electoral gains. Added Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg: 'This was an angry, protest election where people voted against the Democrats and the Obama agenda.' 

MORE DETAILS - "Ayres and Greenberg jointly conducted the survey for Resurgent Republic and Democracy Corps on behalf of the Bipartisan Policy Center ahead of the group's summit this week in New Orleans. The results illuminate the flight of independent voters to the GOP: Seventy-nine percent of this crucial bloc of the electorate thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction while just 14 percent believe it's on the right track. Only 35 percent of independents approve of the job Obama is doing while 60 percent disapprove. And 43 percent of independents who supported Republican congressional candidates said they did so to institute a check on the president and his party. Looking ahead, 51 percent of these unaffiliated voters said they backed extending tax cuts across the board while 40 percent indicated a preference for not keeping the rates in place for the wealthy. Even more striking: 57 percent of independents said they favored repealing the new healthcare law while only 31 percent said they opposed repeal. 

STILL MORE - "The survey also indicates that voters want the two parties to work together. Asked if they wanted their elected officials to stand on principle or compromise to pass laws, 61 percent of independents said they preferred conciliation while only 32 percent indicated ideology. And independents, when given the choice, said they wanted to see both parties move to the center. 'Coming out of this election, voters want a different kind of politics,' said Greenberg. The survey was conducted November 2-3 among 886 voters nationwide who cast ballots last week, plus another 14 so-called drop-off voters who voted in 2008 but not this year. Read the joint GQR/RR presentation: http://politi.co/aAfOCJ  

As Mark Dayton gets impatient, the polling adults step in and Sarah Palin gets 14 million reasons to consider running, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

DCCC WATCH - PELOSI'S CHOICE? With NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions re-upping for another term at the House GOP's campaign committee, it's now the Democrats' turn to decide who will lead their 2012 effort. A flurry of attention surrounded New York Rep. Steve Israel Monday evening, after the Washington Post reported that he's the favored choice of outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. But Israel isn't the presumptive chairman yet: No final decision has been made and at least two other members - Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and New York Rep. Joe Crowley - are viewed as promising options. 

MORE - All three of those contenders have already served in leadership roles at the DCCC. In the last cycle, Crowley was the DCCC's vice chairman for finance, Wasserman Schultz was vice chairwoman for incumbent retention and Israel was the committee's recruitment czar. Israel also has a strong connection to two currently serving DCCC staffers: Jon Vogel, the DCCC's executive director in 2010, and John Lapp, who was a senior adviser to its independent expenditure arm, have both worked for the Long Island congressman in the past. Whoever ends up in the job will be accepting both a challenging task - the GOP's majority has already climbed past 20 seats with several recounts still undecided - and an uncertain one, given how dramatically redistricting could change the playing field next time around. 

CHICAGO SIREN - A coalition of African-American community leaders is backing Rep. Danny Davis for mayor of Chicago, even as a large field of candidates raises the possibility that Rahm Emanuel may be able to avoid facing an opponent with an undivided ethnic base. The ABC affiliate WLS-TV reports: "The coalition behind Davis is made up of elected officials and ministers, but another African-American coalition backs former Senator Carol Moseley-Braun and Rev. James Meeks. ... The only white candidate left in the race is Rahm Emanuel, President Obama's former chief of staff, who commented Monday for the first time on Davis entering the race. ... 'All the candidates have a lot to offer. They'll offer their ideas. I am offering my ideas today,' said Emanuel." http://bit.ly/b1A3mn  

TOM, FOLDING: Connecticut Republican Tom Foley conceded defeat in the governor's race, declining to challenge the reported election results and clearing the way for Democratic ex-Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy to take office. The New Haven Register: "'This result should not be questioned. I hope my supporters take my word for it,' Foley said at his press conference at Goodwin Square. Later, Malloy praised Foley several times for his graceful exit and said he did not think his opponent would file a legal challenge to the results. 'I want to thank Tom Foley who has proven himself to be a very classy guy - I can honestly say it is a pleasure to pay him a compliment for the way he has comported himself,' Malloy said." http://bit.ly/bWell5  DAYTON DIGS IN: Former Minnesota Sen. Mark Dayton, up 9,000 votes in the governor's race but facing a potential recount fight with Republican Tom Emmer, has named a transition team to get the transfer of power moving. In a statement, Dayton noted only the "strong possibility of becoming Governor on January 3," announcing: "I have asked Tina Smith and Lee Sheehy to serve as Transition Co-Chairs. State Senator Yvonne Prettner Solon will be centrally involved in the Transition. Ruth Orrick and Michele Kelm-Helgen will serve as Senior Advisors, with others to be named shortly." http://bit.ly/8XnBUK  

AND - TWO MORE DOWN: Washington Rep. Rick Larsen won reelection over GOP challenger John Koster, the AP concluded Monday, and Virginia Republican Keith Fimian is preparing to concede today to Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly. Larsen had a 4,408-vote lead when his race was called, while the Washington Post reports from Virginia: "Connolly leads Fimian by 981 votes -- or .4 percent of all votes cast -- according to the Virginia state board of elections site. That margin entitles Fimian to ask for a recount after state election officials certify the results Nov. 22, but operatives from both parties who monitored the vote-counting process in the week since Election Day said they saw no glaring flaws in the numbers." http://bit.ly/9RCwXN  and http://wapo.st/bN8dRh  

STILL UNCALLED IN THE HOUSE: CA-11 (Rep. Jerry McNerney leads by 0.3 percent), CA-20 (Challenger Andy Vidak +1.7 percent), NY-25 (Challenger Ann Marie Buerkle +0.4 percent), IL-08 (Challenger Joe Walsh +0.2 percent), KY-06 (Rep. Ben Chandler +0.2 percent) and TX-27 (Challenger Blake Fahrenthold +0.8 percent). A seventh race, in NY-01, is up in the air as Rep. Tim Bishop pushes for a full recount of ballots in his 383-vote race against Republican Randy Altschuler. 

POLL OF THE DAY - TROUBLE IN SALT LAKE CITY: That's trouble with a capital "T," if you're Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch. Just 40 percent of likely voters in a Salt Lake Tribune poll said they want Hatch to get another term, versus 48 percent who said it's time for someone new. The good news: "When breaking out just Republican respondents, Hatch's re-election number shot up to 60 percent, which should boost his spirits, though the survey did not pit him against any other candidate, such as Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who has said he's considering a run against Hatch." http://bit.ly/aYw44k  

2012 BEGINS - IN FLORIDA: After drawing Katherine Harris as his 2006 opponent, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson may face a more formidable challenge in the upcoming cycle, and Sunshine State News runs down some of the options: "Starting with interim Sen. George LeMieux, several Republicans are maneuvering to take Nelson's seat. LeMieux, who leaves office in January, already has a campaign website up ... Another likely GOP contender -- at least in his own mind -- is U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV of Fort Myers.... Another possibility is state Rep. Adam Hasner. Serving as majority leader, the Delray Beach Republican is a reliable fiscal conservative and he could contend for Democratic Jewish votes in Southeast Florida. ... Two stronger prospective challengers to Nelson include state Senate President Mike Haridopolos and newly elected U.S. Rep. Daniel Webster. Telegenic and energetic, Haridopolos is a rising star in the party, a relentless campaigner and a bona fide conservative who would draw a sharp philosphical contrast to Nelson." http://bit.ly/9dho3r  

PLUS - ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE: Florida Republicans bucked a national trend by winning the Hispanic vote in 2010, the Miami Herald reports, with Marco Rubio taking 55 percent of Hispanics and Gov.-elect Rick Scott taking 50 percent. "President Barack Obama won about 57 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2008. As a Republican, Crist split the Hispanic vote with Democrat Jim Davis in the 2006 governor's race." http://bit.ly/aBtBFD  

$14 MILLION WOMAN? Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is the sixth-highest-earning political figure of 2010, taking in an estimated $14 million according to calculations performed for Newsweek by the research firm Wealth-X. "Will Palin run for president?" Newsweek asks, answering: "She's making millions on the mere possibility ... Most of the former governor's earnings come from royalties on her memoir, Going Rogue, and portions of an advance for her upcoming tome, America by Heart. She likely also brings in six figures from her role as a contributor on Fox News." The only higher-earning names on the list (in descending order): Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly and Jon Stewart. http://bit.ly/bKw6VY  

OVER BEFORE IT STARTED - Joe Manchin isn't switching parties, and he'll say that definitively. After Fox News briefly fanned speculation that the senator-elect might consider going rogue when he comes to Washington - "If Manchin, Nelson and Lieberman switched, it would leave the Senate in a 50-50 deadlock," the network gushed - a Manchin spokesman said flatly that's not happening. "Joe Manchin is a life-long Democrat and he is not switching parties," said Manchin spokesman Melvin Smith. "Joe Manchin wants to go to Washington to encourage members of Congress to stop partisan bickering and start putting our nation's needs at the forefront. He wants to work with all sides - Democrats and Republicans - to move our state and nation forward. He is looking forward to going to Washington to do his part to help rebuild America." The original Fox report is here: http://bit.ly/96W4pG  

AFTER 2010 -- ADULTS STEP IN: Nineteen top pollsters from both parties have penned an open letter dinging media coverage of election surveys and calling for more transparency in campaign data, Huffington Post polling czar Mark Blumenthal reports. "Their message is a bit unusual: At a time when political journalists and bloggers are busily scoring the accuracy of the final public election surveys, these pollsters called on the news media to judge the quality of polls based on 'the professionalism with which they are conducted' rather than 'their accuracy in the closing weeks of the election.' More specifically, the campaign pollsters urged journalists to hold public polls to disclosure standards of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) that call on pollsters to release details such as the exact wording of questions, the demographics of their samples, the methods used to draw their samples and interview voters and the response rates they obtain." http://huff.to/dgkzsF  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Sarah Palin cost us control of the Senate." - GOP Rep. Spencer Bachus, in remarks to the South Shelby, Ala., Chamber of Commerce http://bit.ly/cnZo7T  

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