Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: Dems think tea party helped GOP - Gaylord thinks Gingrich is in - Bombshell reshapes RNC race - Bean loses - Ensign plans reelect
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 2010 05:58:05 -0500 (EST)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

POLITICO SNEAK PEEK - GSG'S POSTGAME - Jonathan Martin reports: "Democratic consultants and operatives who worked on the 2010 campaign think that the tea party movement served as more of an energy force for Republicans than a divisive factor that split the GOP, according to an informal survey being released today. Sixty-four percent of Democratic professionals said the tea party 'energized the Republican base and was one reason for Republican gains' while just 36 percent thought it 'splintered the party and hindered' the GOP from bigger gains. Similarly, the respondents indicated that they thought hitting their GOP opponents on issues related to outsourcing jobs and trade was more effective (44 percent) than going after them for ties to the Tea Party and extremism (23 percent). Those surveyed also were confident that President Obama would win re-election in 2012 if he faced either Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee, but indicated that they ultimately thought the GOP would nominate an establishment candidate instead of a tea party favorite. 

MORE - "The poll was conducted by the Democratic polling firm Global Strategy Group. The data is from 132 individuals who served as staffers and consultants for 2010 candidates and party committees. The firm sent an email questionnaire to the operatives - using a list culled from party consultants around the country - just over a week after the election. So it's not a scientific survey. But it does offer a window on the private thinking of Democratic professionals in the days following the historic race. Almost three quarters of these strategists and staffers believe the party's losses in the mid-terms were a result of the country's weak economy - far more than those who cited health care reform. Yet they also overwhelmingly believe - by some 83 percent -- that Democrats will win back House seats in 2012 but not regain the majority." 

As Americans for Job Security returns, Virginia wobbles and Charlie Crist breaks on through to the other side, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

THE 2012 SCORE - NO, SERIOUSLY, GUYS: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich told the Des Moines Register that he is making arrangements to keep his business activities running, in the event that he needs to step away during a presidential bid. The paper reports that Joe Gaylord, "Gingrich's longtime political counsel, said Gingrich is not being coy when he refers to the arrangements. They are, rather, out of practical consideration for their employees, their own personal revenue security and campaign election law. 'I would be very surprised if he doesn't run,' said Gaylord." http://bit.ly/aPZUpy  

PLUS - ON THE ROAD - Gingrich aligned himself with Iowa's staunchest social conservative activists Tuesday, calling for the state's Supreme Court justices to resign following elections that ousted three of them. "Gingrich said it was clear after the three justices on the ballot were defeated that the other four also would have lost their jobs. Bob Vander Plaats, who headed the campaign to defeat justices, has made similar remarks. 'I mean it's clear if they had been on the ballot, they'd have been repealed,' Gingrich said." http://bit.ly/aRkCi3  

DOWN WITH THE SHIP - Even as Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski grabbed a 10,000-plus-vote lead over challenger Joe Miller, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee sent out a renewed appeal for Miller's effort and vowed not to give up. "You may not know, but Joe's race for U. S. Senate is still not decided. Alaska's Republican nominee for the US Senate, is STILL in the race of his life and needs our immediate help," Huckabee wrote, citing "legal battles over this irregular voting process that will continue for the foreseeable future." Huckabee endorsed Miller's primary challenge to Murkowski and his political committee, Huck PAC, maxed out to Miller's campaign. http://bit.ly/btvrUR  

ZERO HOUR COMING: Alaska is expected to finish counting overseas ballots today and Murkowski's campaign released a statement reminding observers that Miller has said he would concede if the math simply doesn't permit a path to victory. "By the end of the day," said campaign manager Kevin Sweeney, "every Alaskan vote will have been counted, we expect Mr. Miller to keep his word." 

BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE - "Top RNC aide quits, blasts Michael Steele" - POLITICO's Jonathan Martin: "In a four-page letter to Steele and the RNC's executive committee obtained by POLITICO, [political director Gentry] Collins lays out inside details, previously only whispered, about the disorganization that plagues the party. He asserts that the RNC's financial shortcomings limited GOP gains this year and reveals that the committee is deeply in debt entering the 2012 presidential election cycle. ... Collins cites a study that he says found that the GOP could have won the Washington and Colorado Senate races with a better field operation and says that he'd chalk up narrow gubernatorial losses in Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont to the same lack of funds for a ground game. The veteran Republican operative also tallies 21 House contests in every corner of the country that he asserts 'could have been competitive if not for lack of funds.'" http://politi.co/drmAfa MORE - WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT - This is a huge blow to Steele's already shaky reelection prospects, with the potential to completely scramble the RNC election. Here are Score's five biggest questions for the next phase of the race: (1) Do any sitting committee members publicly cite Collins's memo as a reason for concern about Steele? (2) Do any of the GOP's major elected leaders do the same? (3) Do any big-name candidates - Frank Keating, Carly Fiorina, etc. - jump in now that there's blood in the water? (4) Do any traditional Steele loyalists jump ship? (5) Could the answers to all those questions add up to Steele simply not running again? 

BACK TO BENNET - The DSCC still doesn't have a new chairman and CNN's Dana Bash reports that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is continuing to push Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet to take the job. "Last week, Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado turned down a request from Reid to take the job. Democratic sources say Reid is now trying to convince Bennet to change his mind," Bash says. The DSCC released October fundraising numbers yesterday that showed it beat the NRSC's take by about $3 million in the last month of the midterm campaign. http://bit.ly/ch4vq9 and http://bit.ly/aMzuHQ  

WRAPPING 2010 - ONE MORE DOWN: Illinois Rep. Melissa Bean conceded defeat last night to Republican Joe Walsh, a tea party-backed candidate who was not viewed as a formidable challenger for the third-term Democrat. That brings the number of uncalled House races down to five: California Democrats Jim Costa and Jerry McNerney appear likely to hold off their opponents, while Texas Rep. Solomon Ortiz and New York Reps. Dan Maffei and Tim Bishop trail by hundreds of votes. 

SPEAKING OF BISHOP - NOT A GOOD HEADLINE: "Altschuler Challenges Residency Of Bishop's Parents" - From YNN's Liz Benjamin: "Rep. Tim Bishop's campaign spokesman just released a statement slamming Republican Randy Altschuler's camp for challenging the residency status of the Democratic congressman's parents, who voted for their son in NY-1 with absentee ballots sent from Florida. According to the spokesman, Jon Schneider, Bishop's 86-year-old father, Howard, is an 11th generation Southampton Village native. He's also housebound and thus was unable to travel home, so he and his wife, Catherine, cast their ballots through the mail." http://bit.ly/cbS6wP  

POLL OF THE DAY - WHIPLASH IN VIRGINIA: President Barack Obama starts the 2012 cycle with an advantage over his potential rivals in the battleground state of Virginia, according to PPP, even after his party's back-to-back drubbings there in 2009 and 2010. The pollster suggests that discussion of a rapidly contracting presidential map may be premature: "Obama was the first Democratic Presidential candidate to win Virginia in a generation in 2008 ... Obama leads Mitt Romney (48-43) and Mike Huckabee (49-44) each by 5 points in hypothetical contests, a margin similar to his victory over John McCain in the state. If the Republican nominee was either Newt Gingrich or Sarah Palin Obama's lead widens to 11 points, by spreads of 52-41 and 51-40 respectively. ... These strong numbers for Obama may seem surprising after 2 good Republican years in Virginia but they're a reminder that a huge part of that GOP success was Democratic voters staying home." http://bit.ly/9jqTvw  

DEM DREAM - ENSIGN WANTS IN: Nevada's scandal-tarred junior senator plans to run for another term, telling POLITICO that he's been "focusing on ... earning people's trust back in Nevada, getting around the state and mostly doing my job." Manu Raju and Scott Wong report: "Ensign said he's not worrying about how his legal problems might impact his chances for reelection. 'All I can do is just do my job and present my case to Nevadans, and see what they think,' the Republican said. ... Senate Republican leaders have been hesitant to back an Ensign run, worrying that his candidacy could spur either a costly primary challenge or that his legal baggage could make him unelectable in a general election. In a recent interview, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) dodged a question about whether he'd back Ensign's reelection bid for a third term. 'I don't have any observations to make about that matter today,' he said." http://politi.co/c2JXFf  

IN MONTANA: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is in for a serious reelection fight in 2012, even though he still hits the 50-percent approval mark in PPP's polling. Tester starts out with an 11-point lead over former lieutenant governor candidate Steve Daines, who has already declared a campaign against the freshman Democrat. But Tester would trail Rep. Denny Rehberg by two points, 46 percent to 48 percent. Former Republican Gov. Marc Racicot would start a race against Tester with a wider, 7-point lead. http://bit.ly/9tqAxs  

THEY'RE BA-ACK: Americans for Job Security, the conservative pro-business group that spent heavily in the midterm elections to broaden the House playing field for the GOP, is already running web ads attacking New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch over the state budget. The Union-Leader's John DiStaso: "AJS began airing ads last spring attacking Democrat Lynch and Republican former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, now a U.S. Senator-elect, on the state's attempt to use $110 million in Joint Underwriting Association medical malpractice funds for the general fund. ... The Americans for Job Security ad calls on readers to 'reject the lame duck JUA raid,' and links to a web site named 'Hands Off New Hampshire' ... 'You've have to love an organization like this, which doesn't care about the facts and refuses to disclose who funds their misleading ads,' [Lynch spokesman Colin] Manning said." The president of AJS is Steve DeMaura, a former executive director of the New Hampshire Republican Party. http://bit.ly/dnpCpf  

LAMESTREAM MEDIA WATCH: Tina Fey made multiple sharp cracks about Sarah Palin when she accepted the Mark Twain Award for comedy during a PBS ceremony. The catch, TV Guide reports, is that the network cut most of them out: "When the 30 Rock star accepted the award last week in Washington, she gave a shout-out to 'conservative women' like Sarah Palin, who Fey famously impersonated on Saturday Night Live. 'Politics aside, the success of Sarah Palin and women like her is good for all women - except, of course those who will end up paying for their own rape kit and stuff,' she said, among other choice slams. ... Peter Kaminsky, an executive producer of the show, said in a statement that the speech was shortened for time, not content. 'It was not a political decision. We had zero problems with anything she said.'" http://bit.ly/aAwZNx  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY - "My heart bleeds for he and his family that this may not have even ever happened, yet it's unfortunately currently part of his record." - Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, explaining his decision to seek a posthumous pardon for Jim Morrison, who was convicted of lewd behavior in the state in 1969 http://nyti.ms/cTkjeO  

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