Subject: Early Forecast Shows Obama Headed for Win
From: "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2010 10:15:39 -0500

Early Forecast Shows Obama Headed for
Win<http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/11/21/early_forecast_shows_obama_headed_for_win.html>Yale
economist Ray C. Fair has updated his
forecast<http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2012/index2.htm> and
says that based on the facts at hand right now, President Obama is likely to
win the 2012 election in a landslide.

Fair tells the New York
Times<http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/21/business/21stra.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=obama%20forecast&st=Search>
that
there "is considerable data behind his election prediction, using his
econometric models. One produces a forecast for the overall, or macro,
economy, while another uses economic inputs to forecast the national popular
vote. At the moment, he says, the data augurs well for the president."

Said Fair: "The model certainly suggests that if the economy is good and
improving as an election approaches, it's very difficult to defeat an
incumbent president."
-- 
Eric D. Schwerin
Rosemont Seneca Partners
(202) 333-1880
[email-masked]