Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Wagner announcement expected - Monday stakes: Eye on Kirk, Murray - Santorum plans new S.C., Iowa trips - Just one House race left - Danforth defends Lugar
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2010 05:44:16 -0500 (EST)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

THE RNC RACE - IS IT ANN WAGNER DAY? Ann Wagner, the former Missouri GOP chairwoman and ambassador to Luxembourg, is expected to formally launch a campaign to lead the Republican National Committee "as early as Monday," KMOX radio reports. "It's been far from secret: she's already filed paperwork to create a committee had speculated about either running for the U.S. Senate or RNC chair. Wagner was most recently at the helm of Roy Blunt's recent successful U.S. Senate campaign." New signs of weakness for RNC Chairman Michael Steele emerged over the holiday, as the AP surveyed 51 members of the RNC and found that 39 hoped he would not run for another term." So far, Steele's only formally declared challenger is former Michigan Republican Party Chairman Saul Anuzis, but a throng of other hopefuls - including Wagner, Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus, former RNC political director Gentry Collins and former GOP official Maria Cino - continue to inch toward the race. The field would likely grow even larger if Steele opted against running again. http://bit.ly/fKFO4B  and http://bit.ly/eB72T5  

As Richard Lugar sweats, Minnesota counts and Gary Johnson does the Rick Scott, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

MONDAY STAKES - The 2010 campaign is almost a month behind us, the lame-duck session is beginning in earnest and Morning Score is back after a holiday hiatus. Here's our list of the top pols and operatives who have the most to gain or lose in the week ahead: 

(1) Illinois Sen.-elect Mark Kirk, who will be sworn in today as the newest Republican senator in the lame-duck session, and immediately start a Joe Manchin-in-reverse balancing act: Squaring his conservative party label with a very moderate constituency; (2) House Speaker-designate John Boehner, who heads to Tuesday's bipartisan summit at the White House as the most powerful Republican in government, and has to act like it; (3) Washington Sen. Patty Murray, who's viewed as an increasingly likely prospect to lead the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and has to decide soon whether it's worth taking a high-risk, uncertain-reward gamble on the job; (4) California Republicans, who need to explain why they lost every statewide race (including the slow-in-counting election for attorney general) and toss-up House seat (including the late calls in Rep. Jerry McNerney and Jim Costa's districts) and gave up ground in the state legislature amid a national GOP wave; (5) Rahm Emanuel's opponents in the Chicago mayor's race - from former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, to Rep. Danny Davis, to Gery Chico, the former president of the Chicago Public Schools Board - who are in urgent need of even small-scale tactical victories that could change this lopsided campaign. 

THE 2012 SCORE - 'OH MY GOODNESS' - The Des Moines Register caught up with a coy Sarah Palin during her book-tour visit to Des Moines, where Tom Beaumont reported: "[D]uring an impromptu autograph and photo session with supporters after the event, Palin deflected when asked by The Des Moines Register when she planned to decide whether she will run in 2012. 'Oh my goodness,' she said, and turned to a woman who asked to have her book signed. 'Thank you for changing the subject for me.' ... Although Palin accepted the invitation to speak for the state party's fall fundraiser in Des Moines in September, she has not reached out to Iowa Republican officials, normally sought out by White House aspirants during visits to the state. Palin had no political meetings in Iowa Saturday. ... Except for the impromptu press questions after the event, she gave no statement to the news media and took no questions during the event. ... Palin, who left Iowa for Wichita, Kans., after the Iowa event, is scheduled to return to Iowa on the book tour Thursday, when she will sign books at Walmart in Spirit Lake, the heart of GOP-heavy northwest Iowa." http://bit.ly/e06DG8  

BUT - DO THE RULES APPLY HERE? Doug Gross, the former Iowa gubernatorial candidate, explained to the Los Angeles Times that the conventional caucus campaign may be changing: "It used to be that you got famous in Iowa, and then you got famous nationwide ... Now you get famous on Fox, and you get famous in Iowa. Before, you had to go to every living room. Now there's a lot of shoe-leather stuff you don't need to do." http://lat.ms/fcewY0  TODAY - Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is in New Hampshire for his seventh trip to the key presidential primary state. He's speaking at Rotary events in Manchester today and Goffstown on Tuesday, and meeting with the Goffstown Wear-Republican Committee. Santorum intends to return to both Iowa and South Carolina before New Year's, according to a source familiar with his plans, keeping his early-state presence strong through the end of 2011. http://bit.ly/dYxNWo  

AND IN WASHINGTON - From the White House guidance: "At 5:30 PM, the Vice President will swear in Senator-elect Mark Kirk of Illinois at the United States Capitol." 

LEDE OF THE DAY - GARY JOHNSON ALERT: "A self-made millionaire Republican is campaigning in Florida on a platform of spending cuts and less government. It's not Rick Scott, anymore." Marc Caputo delivers the punch line - "This is Gary E. Johnson, a former New Mexico governor and advocate for the legalization of marijuana, who's putting out Florida feelers in a possible bid for the presidency in 2012" - and continues: "Johnson's campaign-style stops in Tallahassee, Melbourne and Orlando last week reveal that the presidential race is already at a low boil in the nation's largest swing state. When told of Johnson's position on legalizing marijuana, Republican Party of Florida chairman John Thrasher, a St. Augustine senator, gave a skeptical 'Oh, boy' as a response. Thrasher sounded more enthusiastic about the fact that Johnson was in the state in the first place. ... 'There are people running for president and they're coming here because Florida's going to play a big role.'" http://bit.ly/fykuBx  

SPOTTED - Texas Gov. Rick Perry, at No. 32 on the Nov. 28 New York Times bestseller list, for "Fed Up! Our Fight to Save America from Washington" http://nyti.ms/dY4wM1  

HERE WE GO AGAIN - The Minnesota governor's race will continue drifting toward a conclusion today, as a recount begins to determine whether former Democratic Sen. Mark Dayton can defend his under-9,000-vote lead over state Rep. Tom Emmer. FOX 9 lays out the timetable: "On Monday, at courthouses and city halls across the state, election workers will open the boxes holding ballots and sort them into piles. ... Local election officials must finish the recount by December 7. The state canvassing board will meet starting December 8 to go over any challenged ballots. The board hopes to certify the election results on December 14." http://bit.ly/i9szZT  

THE LAST QUESTION MARK: The only remaining undecided House race is in Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop's Long Island district, where the New York congressman leads challenger Randy Altschuler by just over 200 votes. The Long Island Press has the messy details: "Here on Long Island, the count goes on for the last unresolved congressional races in the country with four-term incumbent Rep. Tim Bishop (D-Southampton), now ahead of his Republican challenger, Randy Altschuler by either 235 (Bishop's tally) or 234 (Altschuler's). ... Next Tuesday in Suffolk County Supreme Court, both parties will be on hand to expedite the process regarding the remaining ballot challenges, and even here the two sides can't agree on that number. According to the Altschuler campaign, there are 1,239 ballot challenges by Altschuler, 770 by Bishop; according to the Bishop campaign, Altschuler is challenging 1,261 ballots and Bishop is challenging 790 ballots." If Bishop's lead holds, that will leave the final tally of Republican House pickups at 63 seats. http://bit.ly/gb6cMC  

SUNDAY READING - SHOTS FIRED IN INDIANA: Republican Sen. Richard Lugar has done little since Election Day to deter chatter about a 2012 primary challenge from the right, and the New York Times wrapped up the risks Lugar's taking by "defying his party on an earmark ban, a bill that would create a path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants, a military spending authorization bill and an arms control treaty with Russia. He even declined to sign a brief supporting state lawsuits against President Obama's health care law ... Lugar's willingness to buck his party is leading to talk that he will face a primary challenge from a Tea Party candidate when he runs for re-election in 2012. It is a possibility that Mr. Lugar, who said the current environment in Washington was 'disappointing' ... 'If Dick Lugar,' said John C. Danforth, a former Republican senator from Missouri, 'having served five terms in the U.S. Senate and being the most respected person in the Senate and the leading authority on foreign policy, is seriously challenged by anybody in the Republican Party we have gone so far overboard that we are beyond redemption.'" http://nyti.ms/g0WiZg  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "When a 5-year-old granddaughter says I want to see Sarah Palin, you go see Sarah Palin." - Wichita grandmother Jane Kelliher, at a book signing last night for Palin's "America by Heart" http://bit.ly/gVKCMm  

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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