Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: DCCC starts recruitment push - 239 days to Ames - More Wagner mo' - Poll: Obama rolls in N.H. primary - Nevada moves up GOP caucus - Barbour to address CPAC
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2010 05:48:28 -0500 (EST)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

THIS JUST IN - DCCC TAKES AIM: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee held its first recruitment meeting of the 2012 cycle yesterday, sketching out a list of battleground districts where high-caliber nominees could flip seats into Democratic hands. In order to take back the House in 2012, Democrats will need to pick up a net 25 seats - so they can't just rely on beating the most vulnerable GOP freshmen. On the target list at Thursday's meeting: California Rep. Dan Lungren, Illinois Rep.-elect Robert Dold, New Jersey Rep. Leonard Lance, New Hampshire Rep.-elect Charlie Bass and Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent. All of those seats were competitive in 2008 or 2010 and all were ultimately won by Republicans this year. In a campaign less friendly to the GOP, Democrats could have a better shot at knocking off Lungren, Lance and Dent and taking back the two seats they lost in November. 

MORE - AT THE TABLE: A dozen Democratic lawmakers participated in the early recruitment discussion, including incoming DCCC Chairman Steve Israel and his predecessor at the committee, Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen. Also in attendance were Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards, New Mexico Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, Arkansas Rep. Mike Ross, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Pennsylvania Rep. Allyson Schwartz. The full DCCC recruitment committee will be announced in January and Israel is scheduled to follow up on the meeting with a recruiting trip to the Southwest next week. Read more on the session here: http://politi.co/heW8Aw  

FIRST IN SCORE - WAGNER ADDS ONE: Former Missouri Republican Party Chair Ann Wagner will gain another vote in the RNC race today when Alabama Committeewoman Bettye Fine Collins endorses her in a message to the full committee. "I have known and respected Ann Wagner for a number of years. She is a dynamic and strong leader ... Her political skills are proven by historic victories in her home state," Collins writes. "Ann was also a magnificent RNC Co-Chair. Serving as Co-Chair under three different RNC chairmen, Ann helped lead our Party to historic victories. More importantly, Ann Wagner is a woman of integrity. She will be a leader we can be proud to elect to this position of trust without hesitation." Wagner is one of the two candidates - along with Wisconsin GOP Chairman Reince Priebus - who have been the most active in rolling out endorsements since RNC Chairman Michael Steele's decision to seek reelection, and her stature as a committee veteran and national party fundraiser are likely to help in a race that now includes an incumbent RNC chairman. 

As the debate calendar grows, Jay Nixon ends the suspense and Ron Kaufman gets ecclesiastical, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

FRIDAY STANDINGS - BETTER OFF NOW? There's snow on the ground in Washington and the lame duck session seems headed into overtime. With just two weeks left in 2010, here's how Morning Score thinks some of the top politicians and political groups should answer the question: Are you better off now than you were seven days ago? 

BETTER OFF: (1) President Barack Obama, whose supposedly controversial deal with Republicans on extending the Bush tax cuts won high marks even from Democrats in polling this week, and who has a wider-than-expected path to finishing the lame duck session with several real accomplishments under his belt; (2) South Dakota Sen. John Thune, who discovered that even a low-grade spat with Mitt Romney over the tax cut compromise was enough to bring him the kind of attention he's been missing as he tests the 2012 waters; (3) The Club for Growth, which proved once again that it's the North Star of the economic right by coming out against both the tax deal and the omnibus spending bill, sending ripples through the GOP in both cases. 

WORSE OFF: (1) House Speaker-designate John Boehner, who spent one of the year's last legislative weeks getting constantly razzed about crying - multiple times - during a "60 Minutes" special; (2) Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, both of whom hovered around 43 percent support in a pair of polls testing their reelection prospects - very dangerous territory for incumbents; (3) The Republican National Committee, which is probably destined for a messy and divisive leadership fight, thanks to Michael Steele's decision to buck party pressure and seek another term in his job. 

THE 2012 SCORE - NOT LBJ: President Obama is not vulnerable to an intra-party challenge in 2012 - at least not in the early primary state of New Hampshire, according to a Magellan poll conducted for the newly launched political website NH Journal. The survey tested Obama's prospects against three hypothetical primary challengers: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former DNC Chairman Howard Dean and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. None of the match-ups is close to competitive: "Obama would beat former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean by a 78% to 10% margin. He would beat Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders by 79% to 8%. Technically Sanders would need to register as a Democrat as he is currently an independent, though he often sides with the Democrats in the Senate. The only Democrat in the survey who eats into Obama's vote share in a significant way is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Nevertheless, Obama would still beat Clinton handily, 59% to 28%. Clinton defeated Obama in New Hampshire when the two faced off for the nomination in 2008." http://bit.ly/ew5ZQH START THE COUNTDOWN - The 2011 Ames straw poll is officially just 239 days away: The Iowa Republican Party announced that the presidential trial heat will take place at Iowa State University on Aug. 13. Two days earlier, Republican presidential candidates will meet in a debate co-sponsored by the Iowa GOP and Fox News, which will also team up for a second debate at the start of 2012. There are now six debates scheduled: Two in Iowa, two in New Hampshire, one in South Carolina and one at the Reagan Library in California. http://bit.ly/fBEHwq  

MORE ON AMES: The Des Moines Register's Kathie Obradovich explains why the one-two August scheduling is a smart move for the state GOP: "I asked [Iowa Republican Party Chairman Matt] Strawn in a conference call this afternoon whether the party would allow candidates to join the debate who haven't committed to the straw poll. While not saying the party would set that as a rule, Strawn made it clear candidates would be discouraged from trying to join the debate but skip the poll. ... The straw poll also raises the stakes for the FOX debate. Even the best-organized and monied candidate could stumble in the debate and then pay the price at the straw poll." 

NEVADA MOVES: The executive committee of the Nevada Republican Party voted to schedule the state's 2011 presidential caucus just four days after the date of the New Hampshire primary, putting it in competition with South Carolina for third-in-line primary status. POLITICO's Gabriel Beltrone and Molly Ball: "Iowa Republicans are expected to caucus on Feb. 6, 2012, while New Hampshire's primary would likely fall on Feb. 14. Nevada and South Carolina may wind up sparring over which state gets to go next in the GOP contest. The party, the candidates and the states would benefit from scheduling on different days, but both states appear to want to be next after New Hampshire." http://politi.co/hoDX7j  

PLUS - CURVE BALL? Florida Republicans may attempt to up their influence in the presidential primaries by scheduling a straw poll in the fall of 2011, between the Iowa straw poll and that state's caucuses. The Miami Herald's Marc Caputo reports: "The plan, still in its infancy, enjoyed wide support from Republican Party of Florida leaders at its quarterly meeting last weekend. ... Though the details haven't been worked out, the straw poll would likely resemble the Iowa caucus. Party leaders still need to discuss the concept more before deciding on the rules of the straw poll and the venue of Presidency V, which would likely be held in Orlando." http://bit.ly/h2EjOD  

LIVE FROM THE MARRIOTT WARDMAN PARK: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour will speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington this February, joining the ranks of other Republican stars and presidential prospects at the conservative event of the season. In a statement Thursday, CPAC Chairman David Keene praised Barbour as "a solid conservative with the skills to win elections, articulate conservative values and advance conservative policies. There are dozens of conservative officeholders around this country who are where they are because Haley Barbour was in their corner when it counted." Other 2012-ers who previously confirmed their participation include Romney, Thune, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. http://bit.ly/gy2TEb  

PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY? John Thune told the New Hampshire radio station WKXL that he didn't intend to pick on anyone in particular when he said opponents of the White House-backed tax deal were effectively shilling for higher taxes. "I wasn't singling anyone out, but I was making the observation because there has been a lot of carping and sniping at this thing," said Thune, who was widely perceived as rebuking Mitt Romney in a Tuesday floor speech. More from Kasie Hunt: "Thune ticked through various New Hampshire connections [in the interview]. He and former Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) served in the House together, and he pointed out his own long-ago roots in the Granite State: His grandmother was related to the Percival family that lived there in the late 1700s." http://politi.co/gVOrRZ  

THE ENSIGN PEOPLE'S SEAT: Nevada Rep. Shelley Berkley removed any doubt Thursday that she's considering a campaign against Republican Sen. John Ensign in 2012 and told ABC News that she'd decide whether to run in short order. "There's a lot to weigh and measure," she said. "And I think I'd be disingenuous if I said I wasn't looking into it and going to make a decision pretty soon." Berkley had more than $1 million left in her campaign account after the midterms, giving her a head start over other Democrats who may be interested in the race. http://abcn.ws/fjDjdY  

ACT SURPRISED - NIXON TO KICK AROUND: Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon confirmed to the Associated Press that he'll be a candidate for reelection in 2012. Asked if he plans to run again, Nixon answered in one word: "Yea." The AP reports that Nixon has raised $1 million since Nov. 2 for an expected match-up with Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder. http://bit.ly/e6Cb1k  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Most members of the committee two months ago believed that Steele would get reelected. ... It takes a while for them to get over the shock of the pope's death before they pick a new one." - Massachusetts Republican National Committeeman Ron Kaufman, comparing the RNC to the College of Cardinals http://bit.ly/ijrESo  

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