Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Collins bags N.C. chairman, sharpens contrast - Census sends House seats west - Will Barbour give a race speech? - Obama numbers weak in Va. - McMahon sends holiday cards - Manchin apologizes
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 22 Dec 2010 05:44:29 -0500 (EST)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

POPPING AT THE RNC - COLLINS, FOCUSED: Former Republican National Committee political director Gentry Collins, seeking to pick up momentum in the race for RNC chairman, is keeping his guns trained on incumbent Chairman Michael Steele's financial management. On a conference call with RNC members last night, Collins rolled out a detailed plan for reviving the committee's finances, warning that the RNC has suffered from a "lack of confidence among major donors and leading Republican figures in the current RNC administration" and urging members to ensure that the GOP's 2012 "presidential campaign has confidence in the new chairman." Among the key points in Collins's plan: "Re-engage major raisers who have lost confidence in our ability to execute as the leading political organization in America ... The Chairman must complete $500,000 in asks every deposit day of the 2012 cycle, on average ... Develop new generation of major donors." See the full, slide-by-slide presentation here: http://bit.ly/gH85gu  

OPPOSITION LEADER: Collins announced up his third public endorsement in the RNC race overnight, winning former Raleigh Mayor-turned-North Carolina GOP Chairman Tom Fetzer's support. Fetzer, who called for Steele to resign last April, touted Collins's spectacular, whistle-blowing departure from the RNC staff in his endorsement message: "Gentry Collins, having been given unprecedented authority as National Political Director, was the first person to level with the committee about the fiscal crisis we face. Some criticized him, but he stood up and told the truth." That was the Collins camp's second hard shot at Steele's leadership in 24 hours, after the Iowa-born operative issued a statement Tuesday calling on the chairman to apologize for referring to one RNC member as an "idiot": "When the Chairman engages in name-calling of members of his own committee, he diminishes the RNC, the office of Chairman, and himself." 

As Tim Pawlenty takes a bow, Mitch Daniels tends to his backyard and Sarah Palin takes on Iran and AOL, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

CENSUS SCORECARD - Northeastern and Midwestern states (plus Louisiana) will shed a dozen House seats in congressional redistricting next year, as electoral power shifts into Western and Southern states instead, the Census Bureau announced Tuesday. Going state by state, the winners are: Texas (+4 seats), Florida (+2), Arizona (+1), Georgia (+1), Nevada (+1), South Carolina (+1), Utah (+1), Washington (+1). And here are the losers: New York (-2), Ohio (-2), Illinois (-1), Iowa (-1) Louisiana (-1) Massachusetts (-1), Michigan (-1), Missouri (-1), New Jersey (-1), Pennsylvania (-1). http://bit.ly/hOPW9J  

MORE - SPEED READ - "South and West see large gains in latest census," writes New York Times: "On the surface, Republicans would seem to have an overwhelming advantage. Most of the states gaining seats trend Republican, and most of those losing them tend to elect Democrats. What is more, Republicans will be well-placed to steer the process ... But population gains in the South and West were driven overwhelmingly by members of minorities, particularly Hispanics. The new districts will need to be drawn to reflect their numbers, opening potential advantages for Democrats." The Wall Street Journal says "GOP-leaning states gain": Republicans control statehouses in six of the eight states that will add seats in 2012. The GOP's power in redrawing congressional districts was augmented in the last election, when Republicans picked up 12 new governorships and won sole control over 11 additional state legislatures. Ahead of the 2012 election, the GOP holds control of the redistricting process in twice as many congressional seats as the Democrats, according to projections by Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, a bipartisan firm." From POLITICO, "2010 census results show power shifting westward": "No state expanded its electoral power more in the past decade than Texas, which gained four House seats and bulked up its national muscle to 38 electoral votes - second only to California as a presidential prize. Republicans have captured all of the statewide offices in Texas for four consecutive election cycles ... California, which routinely racked up massive, 20-plus percent population gains for most of the 20th century, did not gain House seats this time around." http://nyti.ms/i7kvLZ  and http://on.wsj.com/gcYj6F  and http://politi.co/foYzJv  

BARBOUR, DAY III - TACTICAL RETREAT: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour has shifted into full backpedaling mode after making comments in an interview with the Weekly Standard that sounded sympathetic to 1960s-era Citizens Councils - organizations set up in opposition to desegregation. He released a statement trying to put the remarks in context: "My point was my town rejected the Ku Klux Klan, but nobody should construe that to mean I think the town leadership were saints, either. Their vehicle, called the 'Citizens Council,' is totally indefensible, as is segregation." POLITICO's Jonathan Martin writes that Barbour's rocky week may only be the beginning of his efforts to grapple with race: "As a white Republican from the Deep South who grew up during the civil rights movement - and looks and sounds the part - Barbour bears a heavy political burden as he ponders a run against the country's first black president. ... Whether or not he's willing to give a 'race speech' could offer clues as to how serious he is about wanting to seek the presidency. If he doesn't confront the topic head-on and discuss it on his terms, it will only loom larger over his prospects. Barbour has a prime opportunity to do so this May ... That's when Mississippi will host a 50th anniversary commemoration of the Freedom Rides, the bus trips by young civil rights activists who sought to integrate interstate travel." http://politi.co/giHvUA POLL OF THE DAY - WHAT'S UP IN VIRGINIA? President Barack Obama's job approval rating has fallen to just 36 percent in the Old Dominion, according to a Roanoke College poll. That results clashes sharply with a Public Policy Polling survey last month that showed the president's approval steady at 50 percent. The Roanoke poll showed Obama faring far less well than Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell, who recorded a 57 percent job approval rating. Full results here: http://bit.ly/hEwPw7  

PAWLENTY'S CURTAIN: Minnesota's Republican governor gave a final exit interview Tuesday, telling reporters that he reined in the state's "irresponsible" and "unsustainable" behavior during his eight years in office. "I'm the first, true, fiscally conservative governor I think that has served here in the modern history of this state," he said, according to the Star-Tribune. "This eight years. . .will be known as the time that Minnesota finally came to terms with its excesses." More from the paper: "[Pawlenty] said his achievements had to be seen in the context of fighting a DFL-controlled Legislature for much of his time as governor - and the state's longtime liberal makeup. 'I'm up against large cultural forces here,' he said." http://bit.ly/i6pHtn  

MITCH'S MAN: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels moved to install a top political aide, Eric Holcomb, as chairman of the state Republican Party, touching off speculation about what the move means for Daniels's 2012 intentions. CNN's Peter Hamby: "In a letter to [outgoing Chairman Murray] Clark and members of the Republican State Committee on Monday, Daniels 'enthusiastically' recommended his adviser Eric Holcomb for the job ... 'Since 2003, I have worked with Eric to grow our party, establish our vision for the future and enact our shared policies and priorities,' Daniels wrote. ... Hoosier State Republicans said Tuesday that Holcomb's new job should not impact his ability to work for Daniels, should he decide to run. 'Eric has always been a key member of Mitch's team. If the governor does decide to run for President, Eric will be intimately involved in some role,' one Indiana GOP strategist told CNN." http://bit.ly/hV6MUa  

MORE - Daniels evaded Jonathan Martin's questions about the 2012 implications of Holcomb's move, saying his endorsement "means [Holcomb] was far and away the best person for the job ... I've got a duty to strengthen the Indiana Republican Party no matter what else I do." http://politi.co/fxvarr  

SPOTTED IN CONNECTICUT - Holiday cards from once and possibly future Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon, wishing recipients "happy holidays to you and your family and best wishes for a healthy and prosperous New Year!"One Republican familiar with Connecticut e-mails: "If you have 100% name ID and another $50 million to blow, you might as well start early." http://politi.co/e0UDCM  

BOXING OUT BOLTON - PALIN VS. IRAN: Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin took to the pages of USA Today to call for a tougher policy toward Iran, citing documents published by Wikileaks to argue that if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it "could trigger a regional nuclear arms race in which these countries would seek their own nuclear weapons to protect themselves." More: "Some have said the Israelis should undertake military action on their own if they are convinced the Iranian program is approaching the point of no return. But Iran's nuclear weapons program is not just Israel's problem; it is the world's problem. I agree with the former British prime minister Tony Blair, who said recently that the West must be willing to use force 'if necessary' if that is the only alternative." http://usat.ly/fCv2fD  

PLUS - ROUND TWO? The AOL-backed entertainment site PopEater reported yesterday that the network TLC is eagerly trying to sign Palin for a second season of her reality show, "Sarah Palin's Alaska." The site quoted a network insider saying: "For sure the network is doing everything it possibly can to convince Sarah to do another season, but at the end of the day it looks like it will all come down to money." http://aol.it/fgtFZF  

COLD WATER - From Palin adviser @RAMansour "Rule of thumb: anything 'PopEater' reports about Sarah Palin is completely made up -- as in fabricated out of thin air." 

AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT: Bomb-throwing Iowa Rep. Steve King told ABC News he's open to the idea of running for president, with some pretty big conditions attached. "I have said that I'm short only two things -- that is a calling and groundswell. So if those two things emerge, then I'm in it 100 percent," he said. While it's hard to imagine King making a serious run for the nomination, a favorite-son candidacy in Iowa could change the calculus for other contenders in the race. http://abcn.ws/fgeg1U  

ABOUT THOSE VOTES ... Being Joe Manchin means occasionally having to say you're sorry - as the new West Virginia senator did Tuesday, after missing weekend votes on the DREAM Act and the repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." West Virginia MetroNews: "'Let me apologize to anybody and everybody within our listening and reading areas. I'm very sorry for missing the two votes,' Manchin said during a conference call with reporters Tuesday. Manchin says his oldest daughter is divorced and has one child from that first marriage. She and her ex-husband take turns when it comes to custody on the Christmas holiday. ... For the record, Manchin says he would have voted against both bills." http://bit.ly/eJZupO  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "In political terms, this is known as 'bustin' balls.'" - Vincent A. Cianci, Jr., breaking it down http://amzn.to/hjN878

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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