Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: NRCC launches 'Code Red' repeal blitz - Daniels to CPAC - Israel taps lieutenants - Sabato reveals forecast - Ralston: Ensign won't run
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 6 Jan 2011 05:45:45 -0500 (EST)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

2012 SIREN - DANIELS TO CPAC - POLITICO's Jonathan Martin reports: "Indiana Gov Mitch Daniels will attend CPAC, speaking to the annual conservative confab on Feb. 11, a source tells POLITICO. It's another sign that Daniels is thinking seriously about a White House bid. He has previously eschewed the Republican cattle call circuit, insisting that he's entirely focused on his day job. The CPAC appearance offers Daniels a high-profile platform to address his comments last year that there ought to be a 'truce' on cultural issues to address the country's pressing fiscal problems. He has since sought to clarify his assessment, but the remarks have raised concerns among the GOP's social conservative wing. The Hoosier was in Washington yesterday for some get-to-know-you sessions with reporters and bloggers and to receive a fiscal responsibility award." 

FIRST IN SCORE - DID YOU ORDER THE CODE RED? The National Republican Congressional Committee is launching a fresh offensive against vulnerable Democrats on the issue of health care, reviving its lauded Code Red initiative ahead of next week's vote on repealing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Ten months ago, House Republicans launched Code Red as a way of drawing blood from Democrats who were wavering on the reform law: It included a media offensive from Republican physicians in the House, outreach to GOP doctors out in the country and television ads targeting specific members of Congress. The new Code Red will track how Democrats plan to vote on repeal, casting the vote as an economic issue with the slogan: "Dems forced it on you. It's killing jobs. Help us undo it." 

MORE - IN CRITICAL CONDITION: The Democrats who will feel the NRCC's pressure most acutely may be the ones who voted against health care in the first place - and who will have to explain something of a flip-flop if they vote to keep the law intact. Just 13 of the 34 original Democratic "no" votes remain in Congress: Reps. Jason Altmire, John Barrow, Dan Boren, Ben Chandler, Tim Holden, Larry Kissell, Dan Lipinski, Stephen Lynch, Jim Matheson, Mike McIntyre, Collin Peterson, Mike Ross and Health Shuler. NRCC communications director Paul Lindsay fires this warning shot: "The American people sent a clear message in November that they're looking for job creation, and the Democrats' job-killing healthcare law remains one of the biggest obstacles to progress. House Democrats have an opportunity to finally show that they've received the message." See the new Code Red site here: http://www.gopcodered.com/  

AND FROM THE DEMS - TEAM ISRAEL - POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt scoops: "Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel has named his top lieutenants for the 2012 election cycle. Israel has tapped New York Rep. Joe Crowley, Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Pennsylvania Rep. Allyson Schwartz, Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison, and Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico Pedro Pierluisi to serve as DCCC National Chairs. Crowley will head up the committee's fundraising campaign; Wasserman Schultz will oversee incumbent retention and redistricting efforts; Schwartz will manage candidate recruitment; Ellison will be tasked with overseeing the DCCC's community partnerships; Pierluisi will lead the committee's constituency mobilization efforts." http://politi.co/e2tgO1  

As Rick Santorum plants a flag in New Hampshire, Christine O'Donnell asks for a do-over and the 2012 race comes to daytime television, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

THE DAY AFTER - BACHMANIA BEGINS: Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is openly encouraging speculation about a possible run for president in 2012 after ABC News reported Tuesday that she's traveling to Iowa this month as she weighs a bid. The conservative third-termer responded in a statement that sounded more like an announcement tease than a denial: "We need to repeal ObamaCare and we cannot do that until we repeal Obama. The voters repealed Nancy Pelosi in November and I am doing everything I can to make sure we repeal President Obama and Harry Reid in 2012." The congresswoman told MinnPost.com: "We're going to have a deep bench for 2012, I have no doubt, and I think what people are asking for is a bold, strong, constitutional conservative." http://bit.ly/fStMwL  and http://bit.ly/haSv9p  

MORE - RIPPLE EFFECT - The AP's Patrick Condon points to former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty as one potential victim of a Bachmann campaign: "Pawlenty, whose two-term stint as Minnesota governor ended earlier this week, has laid the groundwork for a presidential campaign and made frequent trips to Iowa and other key states in recent months. He has promised a decision in the next few months, and probably stands to lose the most if Bachmann jumps in. ... Though they've maintained a cordial public relationship as the state's two most prominent elected Republicans, Pawlenty and Bachmann have never been seen as close political allies." http://bit.ly/h4NiI8  

*** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector schools stand ready to do our part. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org  today.THE INCUMBENT - GIBBS'S NEW GIG - President Obama's departing press secretary, at Wednesday's White House briefing: "What I'm going to do next is step back a little bit, recharge some. We've been going at this pace for at least four years. I will have an opportunity I hope to give some speeches. I will continue to provide advice and counsel to this building and to this President. And I look forward to continuing to do that. ... I have probably worked for my -- my current boss is probably my last political candidate. ... Seems like a pretty good one to stop on." http://bit.ly/fGtYSp  

RICK SANTORUM CREATES A JOB: Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has signed New Hampshire political operative Mike Biundo to lead his political action committee in the Granite State, in the latest sign that the Republican is serious about a 2012 campaign. The Union Leader says the move makes Biundo "the first pre-presidential primary staffer by a likely soon-to-be candidate." More: "Santorum will visit the state for the eighth time in about a year next week, planning an appearance before conservative activist Ovide Lamontagne's new Granite Oath PAC at Lamontagne's home on Jan. 11 and then two stops in Bedford later that day and on Jan. 12. Biundo has long been a grassroots organizer in New Hampshire, heading the New Hampshire Advantage Coalition and working on [Rep. Frank] Guinta's campaigns for mayor and then for Congress." http://bit.ly/eZmbdQ  

SET YOUR DVR - THE PLACE FOR POLITICS: Two potential presidential candidates - Pawlenty and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney - and the GOP's leading male celebrity pol are all headed for the same TV couch, the Boston Globe reports: "Senator Scott Brown and former Governor Mitt Romney are slated to make separate appearances on the daytime ABC talk show 'The View' next month as both continue to stoke their political aspirations. Romney, who is widely expected to run for president, is scheduled to be a guest on Feb. 1, his second visit. Brown, who is releasing a book and laying the groundwork for his 2012 reelection campaign, is slated for Feb. 21. Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who is also expected to run for the Republican presidential nomination, is planning to appear next Tuesday." http://bit.ly/gn4R8B  

AND SAVE THE DATES - THE S.C.-HEDULE - Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich are both bound for South Carolina next week, CNN's Peter Hamby reports: "Gingrich will address the Grand Strand Business Association in Myrtle Beach next Wednesday. ... Two days after Gingrich courts business leaders along the coast, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum will be in the state participating in an anti-abortion march culminating with a rally on the steps of the South Carolina state house. The Jan. 15 rally in Columbia is sponsored by South Carolina Citizens for Life." http://bit.ly/hEdinH  

WAYNE BARRETT NARROWS THE FIELD - The legendary Village Voice correspondent waves off Pataki-for-president talk, per POLITICO's @keachhagey: "Barrett tells WNYC caller he dumped his Pataki files, figuring the prez hopes were bunk. 'I kept a couple but I just don't think it's real.'" http://bit.ly/eYI14s  

POLL OF THE DAY - FIVE-POINT HIT: Just 31 percent of Americans called themselves Democrats in 2010, according to Gallup, matching the lowest average party ID number Democrats have scored in decades. Jeffrey Jones: "While Democrats still outnumber Republicans by two points, the percentage identifying as independents increased to 38%, on the high end of what Gallup has measured in the last two decades. ... While there is usually some year-to-year variation in party identification at the aggregate level, the changes are typically not large. Thus, the five-point drop in Democratic identification over the past two years, from the party's 22-year high of 36% (tying the 1988 figure) to its 22-year low of 31%, is notable." http://bit.ly/e6Sgmw  

THE SENATE LANDSCAPE - FROM THE ORACLE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE - The University of Virginia's Larry Sabato is out with his first set of 2012 Senate race ratings and the prognosis is chilling for Democrats and certain well-groomed Republican men: "[T]here are seven toss-ups at the moment, six of them Democratic: Joe Lieberman (D-CT), Claire McCaskill (D-MO), Jon Tester (D-MT), Ben Nelson (D-NE), John Ensign (R-NV), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and Jim Webb (D-VA). All seven are either in the 'very vulnerable' or 'vulnerable' categories. There are eight seats currently leaning to one or the other party. Six are Democratic and two are Republican. Of the eight, the seat of Scott Brown (R-MA) may be the most endangered, initially-although we believe some are underestimating his ability to win a full term despite the state's heavily Democratic tilt. ... Depending on the party identity of the Vice President elected in 2012, Republicans will need to win a net three or four Senate seats from the Democrats to take control of the upper chamber of Congress. With six Democratic toss-ups to just one Republican toss-up, the GOP can obviously win the Senate in theory-but it is far too soon to say whether theory will become reality." http://bit.ly/h4tIvL  

RALSTON'S FORECAST - ENSIGN OUT: Nevada's premier political reporter gazed into the future for a 2011 kickoff column, predicting that the state's next Senate race would unfold thusly: "Rep. Shelley Berkley will decide to run for the U.S. Senate. She will decide that being in a different house than Nancy Pelosi makes sense for her, and she already is used to Harry Reid telling her what to do. Sen. John Ensign, after raising a pittance and seeing Harrific poll numbers, will announce he will not seek re-election. Within days - maybe hours - Rep. Dean Heller will enter the race." Bonus cable-bait prediction: "Sharron Angle will be in the news. Incessantly. She will make it clear she will be on the ballot in 2012." http://bit.ly/etgMRy  

ELSEWHERE IN NEVADA - AFTERSHOCKS: Republican state Sen. Bill Raggio, who lost his leadership position after supporting Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for reelection, resigned from the Nevada legislature yesterday. Steve Sebelius: "Raggio - the longest serving state senator in history ... announced he is quitting the Legislature before the 2011 session convenes ... citing decreased 'physical mobility' ... Raggio endorsed Reid over former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who had also run against Raggio himself in 2008." http://bit.ly/eZv1M2  

PUNCH LINE - "O'Donnell lawyer: Campaign reviews spending" - AP's Ben Evans: "An attorney for former Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell has told federal regulators the campaign could not afford finance professionals to oversee its early spending and is now trying to reconcile bank records with its federal spending reports. In a letter to the Federal Election Commission posted to the agency's website Wednesday, attorney Cleta Mitchell says the Delaware Republican's campaign is reviewing all reports filed over the two-year election cycle and hopes to submit necessary amendments by the end of the month. O'Donnell - a tea party favorite who lost to Democrat Chris Coons in November - has faced scrutiny over her campaign practices, including allegations that she used political donations to pay personal expenses." http://bit.ly/hZcKK9  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Last chance to get sworn in. Anybody here?" - Vice President Joe Biden, at the end of a long day of officiating in the Senate http://politi.co/gRto3j  

*** A message from the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities: We agree with President Obama's goal of retaking the world lead in college graduation rates by 2020. America's private sector colleges and universities stand ready to do our part. The millions of students in our schools deserve the same resources and encouragement as those students in other higher education institutions. The sooner collaborative work among all sectors begins, the sooner the dreams of hopeful students can become realities, and our country can meet the demands of the 21st century. Visit http://myeducationchoice.org  and tell Congress, "It's my education. My job. My choice."

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