Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Pence to campaign in Indiana - Whose 2012 deadline comes next? - Obama phones Emanuel - DeMint, Huntsman lean forward - Huck to Israel - Tea Party Express blesses Hatch
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2011 05:50:35 -0500 (EST)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked] ) 

DELAY OF GAME - PENCE ADVANCES IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION: Indiana Rep. Mike Pence has ruled out a run for president in 2012, postponing the start of the GOP nomination fight and setting himself on a path that likely leads to his home-state governor's mansion instead. Pence shared his decision first with the Indianapolis Star, saying in a letter that he believes his political future is "closer to home." The paper reports: "That begins Friday. Pence, who flew [Thursday] to Indiana from Washington, is holding a town hall meeting in Pendleton at 10 a.m. and speaking to Muncie Central High School students at 1:20 p.m. ... He'll start this campaign with at least $460,000 in left-over funds from his congressional race that he can use to run for governor." http://bit.ly/fk3B5u  

MORE - Pence's decision is a win for the Republican Governors Association and its chairman, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who now have their first-choice candidate in the race to succeed Gov. Mitch Daniels. POLITICO's Kasie Hunt and David Catanese: "Pence was Perry's first recruitment call after he became chairman, a source with knowledge of the call told POLITICO, and Pence met in Washington on Wednesday with Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, the RGA's vice chairman, and RGA executive director Phil Cox." http://politi.co/fVaMwl  

THE 2012 TIMETABLE - CLIP 'N' SAVE - Pence's Jan. 31 deadline for deciding on a presidential run was the earliest timetable any major candidate set for the race. And if he had announced for president, it's possible that other candidates would have felt pressure to get into the race sooner than intended. With Pence out of the picture, here's when other major candidates have said they'll announce their plans: 

- By the end of February: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and South Dakota Sen. John Thune 

- Not before March: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 

- By the end of March: Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty 

- Not before April: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels 

- Next summer: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 

- TBD: Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Ambassador Jon Huntsman and others... 

As Ovide Lamontagne gets another house guest, Louisiana Dems go back to square one and Mark Salter still refuses to bite, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

FRIDAY STANDINGS - BETTER OFF NOW? Now that the State of the Union address is over, the work of the 112th Congress is about to begin in earnest and the 2012 campaign will finally start to get underway. Here's Morning Score's take on how some of the top pols should answer the question: Are you better off now than you were seven days ago? 

BETTER OFF: (1) Newt Gingrich, who returned from his latest trip to Iowa with something close to an endorsement from the state House majority leader, meaning there's one less endorsement available to the 2012 prospects who absolutely must win the caucuses there; (2) Michele Bachmann, who proves almost every day that there is no such thing as bad publicity, and whose clumsy State of the Union response for the Tea Party Express only served to win her unlimited media attention for the rest of the week; (3) Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, whose reelection fight gets a little bit easier every time the odds of a chaotic GOP primary go up, which is exactly what happened this week when former Republican Sen. Jim Talent decided not to try for a comeback. 

WORSE OFF: (1) Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, whose 2012 trial balloon was greeted with a shrug - or worse - by the folks who actually run campaigns and vote in Republican presidential primaries; (2) Chicago mayoral candidate Gery Chico, who went from underdog challenger to Rahm Emanuel to likely frontrunner, and back again, as the Illinois court system flip-flopped on the Emanuel residency case; (3) Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich, already facing a potentially career-ending redistricting process, who may now have to introduce himself to thousands of new constituents as the guy who sued the House cafeteria for $150,000 over an olive pit. http://bit.ly/dHCG3B  

CHICAGO BULLETIN - 'Emanuel cleared to run for Chicago mayor by Illinois Supreme Court" - Bloomberg's Harris and McCormick: "Emanuel satisfies candidate residency requirements, Illinois's highest court said today, reversing a Jan. 24 appeals-court ruling that would have excluded the former Chicago congressman from the ballot. Early voting in the third-largest U.S. city begins Jan. 31. ... 'Ultimately, this decision of who should be the next mayor is for the voters to decide,' Emanuel, 51, said during a campaign stop shortly after the ruling was announced. ...'I immediately called my wife,' he said. 'I also called my parents, and I took a call from the president of the United States.'" http://bloom.bg/fuq74J  

@MAYOREMANUEL REACTS: "We're all ----ing crying and laughing and barking and quacking and the city has never looked more beautiful, and in four weeks I'll be mayor" http://bit.ly/fiNuVh  

WHERE'S MITT? The former Massachusetts governor hasn't managed to lock down many of his supporters from the 2008 campaign for a return engagement, POLITICO's Jonathan Martin reports. That's in part because Romney's not necessarily trying to: "In each of the traditional early states, top Romney supporters from the last campaign tell POLITICO that they're hesitant to get behind the nearest thing the GOP has to a frontrunner. His difficulties are particularly acute in Iowa and South Carolina, where his former enthusiasts say they have not heard from him ... Former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), the top elected official in the Granite State whose endorsement of Romney in 2008 was seen as a pivotal moment, said in an interview that he's firmly undecided about who he'll back in next year's primary. 'I'm listening to all the candidates and have not made any decision,' Gregg told POLITICO ... [Doug] Gross, Romney's Iowa campaign chair last time and a close ally of Gov. Terry Branstad, was blunt in assessing the situation. 'I haven't talked to him in a long time,' said Gross, one of the most powerful GOP players in the Hawkeye State." http://politi.co/h2tAOw THE 2012 ODD COUPLE - DEMINT AND HUNTSMAN? Two unexpected contenders could shake up the Republican presidential field: South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, who has long ruled out a national campaign in 2012, and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, whose musings on the race have been viewed with skepticism - until now. CNN's Peter Hamby: "[T]he ground may be shifting in DeMint-world, and several of his closest advisers and political confidantes are now telling CNN that he is at least open to a presidential bid ... 'I think that you can read into it that he sees he has a role in the process and he hasn't completely shut the door,' said one DeMint adviser ... who was quick to caution that there is only a five percent chance the senator will run." And the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza: "U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman (R) appears to be leaning toward a run for president in 2012 and a team of political operatives and fundraisers have begun informal talks and outreach to ensure he could rapidly ramp up if he decides to run." http://bit.ly/fV7Rmj  and http://wapo.st/dJ6Qjs  

HUCKABEE ABROAD - The former Arkansas governor will arrive in Israel on Sunday for his 13th visit to the country, the Jerusalem Post reports: "While Huckabee is coming on his own initiative to lead a group of American Christian pilgrims, he will meet on Monday with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu - as Romney did - and take tours both of east Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria. ... Huckabee will address the Knesset Immigration and Absorption Committee, at the request of committee chairman Danny Danon (Likud)." http://bit.ly/gpaPgR  

THE PALIN FILES - RELEASE DATE: Alaska's attorney general has declared that tens of thousands of pages of e-mails from Sarah Palin's tenure as governor must be released to the media by May 31. Reuters: "The email records initially were requested in 2008, while Palin was running for vice president on the Republican ticket, by MSNBC, Mother Jones magazine and Anchorage political activist Andree McLeod. Records sought include communications with Palin's husband, Todd, who has been accused of wielding inappropriate governmental powers. ... [T]he governor's office, during Palin's term and that of her successor, Parnell, has sought and been granted numerous delays from the state Department of Law." http://reut.rs/gxlexK  

AND - CENTENNIAL WOMAN: Palin is headed to the Reagan Ranch in Santa Barbara early next month to speak at a banquet celebrating the 100th anniversary of Reagan's birth. The event, scheduled for Feb. 4, is hosted by the Young America Foundation. http://abcn.ws/erdDQ9  

IN THE EARLY STATES - T-PAW'S CLOSE-UP: Tim Pawlenty will be the next GOP presidential prospect to appear at an event for ex-New Hampshire Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne's Granite Oath PAC. The Union Leader: "Lamontagne said he spoke with Pawlenty's staff during his visit to New Hampshire earlier this week and 'he has agreed and confirmed with us. Lamontagne said it's likely Pawlenty will speak to the group in February or early March. Lamontagne's new PAC hosted likely GOP presidential contender and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum on Jan. 11." ALSO: "Lamontagne told the Granite Status he invited DeMint to New Hampshire in a letter in early January after reading that DeMint had the National Review's Conservative of the Year award." http://bit.ly/fHY4eO  

MORE OVIDE - LAST NIGHT: Lamontagne, who's viewed as a top contender in the 2012 governor's race, appeared Thursday evening at a screening of "The Genesis Code." That's the same science-and-religion-themed movie that debuted in Iowa earlier this week and drew former Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle to the early caucus state. Lamontagne's presence at the social conservative-friendly event is yet another sign that he plans to stay in the public eye as a prominent GOP activist. Or more. http://bit.ly/fMWhNt  

POLL OF THE DAY - AFTER-ACTION REPORT: The GOP polling outfit Resurgent Republic released its full readout on the State of the Union late Thursday, concluding from a dial group in Columbus that while voters had a "mostly positive view of the speech ... [Obama's] dial test approval tended to drop among Independents when he proposed additional Federal spending." More: "In addition, Independents tracked closely with Republicans throughout the response given by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, which primarily focused on fiscal issues. ... President Obama loses support among all partisan groups on controlling the rising costs of health care." See the dial group's reaction on health care here: http://bit.ly/gR8vII  ; and read more from the RR analysis here: http://bit.ly/dYB66x  

HATCH EXHALES - KINDA: Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch has at least 99 problems heading into 2012, but the Tea Party Express won't be one. That's because the conservative outside group -which helped upstart activists win Senate primaries in Delaware, Nevada and Alaska last year - is giving the longtime incumbent a pass. Tea Party Express strategist Sal Russo told National Review why: "In 1976, when I was scouring the country trying to find people to stand up for Ronald Reagan, there were not very many in the Republican party that would, especially with the president being Jerry Ford. Orrin Hatch, however, stood up and was our state chairman. ... I think he was an original tea partier." http://bit.ly/gxTzhx  

THE JINDAL REELECT - THAT WAS FAST: Former Louisiana Secretary of State Al Ater won't consider running against Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal, backtracking on an interview he gave earlier this week that stoked Democratic hopes he'd enter the race. The Franklin Sun: "Instead, Ater said he's focused on tending to his 8,000-acre farming operation in Concordia and Tensas parishes and running a cotton brokerage business he acquired last year." Democrats are still looking for a credible candidate to run against Jindal this year. http://bit.ly/i1wIOd  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "The same comment I had the last time. None." - McCain adviser Mark Salter, asked to respond to a Time report identifying him as the anonymous author of "O: A Presidential Novel" http://politi.co/f88mNj 

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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