Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Jeb would beat Nelson, says Sachs/M-D poll - NRSC brands Kaine 'cheerleader' - Smith & Martin: Palin's no frontrunner - Rush pans CPAC - Lowry hearts Daniels - Barbour leans into Iowa
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2011 05:38:37 -0500 (EST)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

SCORE EXCLUSIVE - BUSH THE FRONTRUNNER: Florida Sen. Bill Nelson is under the 50-percent mark against five potential Republican opponents, according to a new poll commissioned by Ron Sachs Communications and conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research. The most powerful Republican challenger for Nelson would be former Gov. Jeb Bush, who tops Nelson by 8 points - 49 percent to 41 percent - in the poll. Nelson fares better against four other opponents. He leads Rep. Connie Mack by 5 points (45 percent to 40 percent), former Sen. George LeMieux by 14 points (49-35), state Senate President Mike Haridopolos by 23 points (48-25) and former state Rep. Adam Hasner by 22 points (46-24). The poll was taken from Feb. 9-10 and tested 625 registered voters. "Sen. Nelson's reelection in 2012 is anything but a sure thing," argues Ron Sachs, the Florida-based public relations man. "Any of his prospective Republican challengers is positioned to be competitive and possibly win." 

MORE - WHY NELSON'S NO PUSHOVER - The Sachs/Mason-Dixon polling memo notes that Nelson's numbers have shown "some improvement. A year ago, Bush led by 50%-35% at the height of the healthcare reform debate ... While there is no doubt Bush would be hard for Nelson to beat, it is also a bullet he will likely get to dodge since the former governor is largely seen as not having an interest in entering the race. ... Nelson's incumbency will likely provide him with early financial and organizational advantages, and he could further benefit from a divisive Republican primary race. On the flip side, Nelson will share the ballot with President Obama and that could prove to be a huge weight if the state economy does not recover and healthcare reform remains a major election issue." Read the full polling memo here: http://politi.co/gYBw3x  

COMING TODAY - PREEMPTIVE STRIKE: There are five days left before Virginia Democrats gather in Richmond for the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, with DNC Chairman Tim Kaine expected to be among them. The National Republican Senatorial Committee is going to use every one of those days to remind the public of Kaine's top "cheerleading" moments for the Obama administration. The message: He's not just that governor you liked anymore. Today, the NRSC's spotlighting Kaine's comments last year calling it "crazy" for Democrats to distance themselves from the White House. From the release: "[I]t was a sentiment he repeated a number of times as he doubled down on his support of the Obama agenda in the weeks and days before he and President Obama led their party to massive losses in 2010's midterm elections - including losses by Virginia Democrats such as former U.S. House members Tom Perriello, Glenn Nye and Rick Boucher..." 

As Dianne Feinstein endorses, Charlie Rangel keeps his options open and Carol Moseley Braun blames the media, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

THE 2012 SCORE - ROMNEY FIRST, RUDY SECOND: The New Hampshire television station WMUR confirms in a new poll that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is a solid bet to win the state's presidential primary. He's 30 points ahead of his nearest rival, with 40 percent of the vote. Romney is also the only Republican tested to lead President Barack Obama in the general election, 49 percent to 41 percent. Here's how voters split between the other candidates: "10 percent would vote for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 7 percent favor former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and 7 percent support former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Another 6 percent prefer former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, 6 percent favor 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, 5 percent support U.S. Rep. and 2008 candidate Ron Paul, 3 percent support businessman Donald Trump, 1 percent favor former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, and 1 percent prefer Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour." http://bit.ly/hZT4DT  

THE BIGGER PICTURE - "Key 2012 early states cool to Palin" - POLITICO's Ben Smith and Jonathan Martin: "The WMUR Granite State Poll released late Monday afternoon puts Palin close to the basement ... In all three [early primary] states, Republican operatives and political pollsters repeated one word: Serious. The states take their early responsibilities seriously, they said, and don't see Palin - with her shortened term as governor, her penchant for public snits and her reality show - as a serious candidate. ... A detailed examination of Palin's polling in the early going suggests that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, the media splash of her late entry into the presidential caucuses and primaries would barely rock the electoral boat. While her endorsement is likely to be a key 2012 prize, pollsters and Republican operatives in the three states repeat the same mantra: Unusual numbers of Republican voters actively dislike her; and among the majority who like her, few think she can serve as president. "She has a group of ardent supporters who seem to be outnumbered by a group of ardent detractors," said Anne Selzer, whose Des Moines Register Iowa Poll is the state's gold standard." http://politi.co/e55fsV  

ONE MORE - "A NH perspective on the 2012 presidential candidates" - NH Journal, the recently launched Granite State web publication, runs down the contenders one by one: http://bit.ly/dKu0ab  

LOWRY'S NEW FAVE - The National Review editor pronounces Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels "temperamentally incapable of unseriousness," praising his CPAC speech as an un-pandering, visionary address: "Freshman Rep. Bobby Schilling, R-Ill., appeared on "Meet the Press" during the weekend to say that "everything is on the table," before mumbling and looking at his shoes when asked for details. President Obama ... hid behind the [debt] commission while it was at work, saying he couldn't pre-empt it; now that it has issued a specific report, he simply ignores it. Out of this miasma of evasion, Mitch Daniels strides purposefully, walking all over the third rail in his deliberate, plain-spoken Hoosier-style. At CPAC, he said it's time to bid 'an affectionate thank-you to the major social welfare programs of the last century.' ... At CPAC, he again proved himself centered, cleareyed and honest. He's the kind of guy who makes you think, 'He should run for president - and probably won't.'" http://bit.ly/dEIwGN  

RUSH DISSENTS - SWATS CPAC, DANIELS: The man with America's loudest microphone had some sharp words for CPAC on Monday, charging that the conservative "ruling class" showed disrespect for the GOP base. Rush Limbaugh: "We had Mitch Daniels saying, (paraphrasing) 'We need to move beyond the audiences of Rush and Sean,' and so forth and the C-SPAN viewers, we need to move beyond that. There was this constant drumbeat that came from a lot of people, from Jeb Bush, from Mitch Daniels, a lot of people, 'We gotta do something about these social conservatives. We gotta dump this' ... What was missing I thought from the CPAC convention just as a theme is what has been occurring the last few years, this ascendancy of traditional conservatism, the ascendancy of Reagan conservatism." Limbaugh also dismissed the results of the CPAC straw poll, pronouncing: "Ron Paul, his son, they're fine, fine people. But Ron Paul is not going to be the Republican presidential nominee." http://bit.ly/hh3XpY  

POPPING ON 2012 LIVE - "Barbour going to Iowa" - Jmart reports: "The Mississippi governor will keynote a March 15 dinner in Scott County, the first of a year-long series of Iowa Republican Party fundraisers aimed at bolstering county parties. Each of the events, to be held in jurisdictions across the state, will feature an out-of-state headliner. 'Building a statewide organization to compete with an Obama re-election machine will require unprecedented coordination and hard work by Iowa Republicans,' said Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn. 'By taking the state GOP out of Des Moines and to every corner of Iowa, we will be prepared for that fight.' ... Other visits by Republican VIPs, some of them surely potential presidential candidates, will be announced in conjunction with the series in the coming weeks." http://politi.co/ibzTXH  

PLUS - ON DEFENSE: Barbour is pushing back hard on a Time magazine report that he lobbied for a form of "amnesty" when his firm was employed by the government of Mexico. CNN's Peter Hamby: "Barbour's advisers ... released a 'fact sheet' outlining what Vincente Fox, then the newly-elected president of Mexico, paid Barbour's firm $35,000-a-month to accomplish. 

According to the document, Barbour and his firm worked with members of Congress on three main issues: to establish a 'U.S.-Mexico Friendship Caucus,' to settle water claims and 'other border issues,' and to improve the relationship between the two countries 'on issues such as immigration' through the 'Partnership for Prosperity' initiative. BGR, though, 'never advocated amnesty for illegal aliens,' the fact sheet said, nor did it support any free trade agreements with Mexico." http://bit.ly/hh97Ov  

ELSEWHERE IN THE EARLY STATES: Former New Hampshire Senate candidate Bill Binnie has filed paperwork to form a political action committee, reports WMUR's James Pindell. Binnie came in third in last year's GOP primary, after Sen. Kelly Ayotte and attorney Ovide Lamontagne - who has also formed a PAC in order to play a role in the 2012 elections. http://bit.ly/gxMXrJ  

HERE WE GO AGAIN - SEN. ARPAIO? Maricopa County Sheriff and perennial political tease Joe Arpaio would start out ahead in the Arizona GOP Senate primary, if - and it's a big if - he finally decided to run statewide. Arpaio took 21 percent in a Summit Consulting Group poll, versus 17 percent for Rep. Jeff Flake and 16.6 percent for former Rep. J.D. Hayworth. Arpaio explained his current thinking to The Hill's Daniel Strauss: "The issue is whether I want to leave this office [sheriff] and go to Washington and try to make a difference there, which I would do if I run and win ... I think I could do that job." http://bit.ly/haJNo3  

THE CALIFORNIA SPECIAL - ANOTHER FOR HAHN: California Sen. Dianne Feinstein became the latest high-profile Democrat to back Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn for the open 36th District House seat. The Los Angeles Times sizes up the state of the race: "[Democratic Rep. Jane] Harman plans to leave office Tuesday to enable the governor to call a special election in June to replace her. No shortage of other candidates have expressed interest in Harman's seat. Hahn's strongest competition could come from California Secretary of State Debra Bowen, another Democrat. Bowen is said to be close to deciding whether to run. ... Hahn's quick launch of her own campaign was seen in part as an effort to discourage others from joining the race." http://lat.ms/e1uSBY  

ONE MORE FOR RANGEL? Roll Call reports the New York Democrat has filed papers to run for another term: "The 80-year-old New York Democratic Congressman filed a 2012 statement of candidacy Monday, according to a filing with the Federal Election Commission. Rangel, who first took office in 1971, had been evoking his age in recent interviews, leading some to speculate that his tenure in Congress was coming to an end." http://bit.ly/dWXECA  

CHICAGO UPDATE - CAN'T MAKE IT UP - "Braun denies comparing Emanuel to the 'F&uuml;hrer,'" WLS radio reports: "In a campaign appearance Sunday, Moseley-Braun compared Emanuel's positive TV ads with the effort to remake Hitler's image by a character in the Mel Brooks film, 'The Producers.' 'The joke in it, was this guy who was still in love with the "F&uuml;hrer," with Adolf Hitler. And he said "the F&uuml;hrer, he was a kind man, he was a gentle man." We're getting the kind man, the gentle man, on television,' Braun said. Monday morning, an angry Moseley-Braun fired back at the media telling Fox Chicago that reporters have ignored Emanuel's well documented temper." http://bit.ly/fn9OD6  

CODA - HEADLINE OF THE DAY - "Donald Trump and Ron Paul debate who's unelectable," from the Houston Chronicle: http://bit.ly/gX7HQO  

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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