Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: DSCC swats Heather Wilson - Romney's N.H. rollout - Five candidates meet in Iowa - Obama plans early-state presence - Gingrich could explore until April - Christie Vilsack moves toward bid
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2011 05:37:09 -0500 (EST)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked] ) 

FIRST IN SCORE - MS. WILSON GOES TO WASHINGTON: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will drop a new video today welcoming former GOP Rep. Heather Wilson to the New Mexico Senate race. The message: She's a DC insider. And a Republican. And a loser. "Heather Wilson came to Washington 13 years ago," the video begins, as images of Wilson with George W. Bush and John McCain pop up. "She really liked Washington. But when she asked New Mexico voters for a promotion to the Senate so she could stay in Washington even longer, we told her it was time to come home." Watch the video here: http://bit.ly/e6qWRK  

2012 SPEED READ - ROMNEY REVS UP: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney addressed the Carroll County, N.H., Lincoln-Reagan Dinner Saturday, picked up support from state Sen. Jeb Bradley and Executive Councilor Ray Burton - and finished the weekend looking like the all but official presidential candidate that he is. Catch up on the weekend here: 

- The Union-Leader's Sara Young-Knox reported from Romney's speech: "His Massachusetts health care 'experiment wasn't perfect,' Mitt Romney said Saturday night, but its flaws weren't nearly as significant as those in 'Obamacare' ... A relaxed and tieless Romney was greeted warmly at the event, attended by many prominent New Hampshire politicians. Romney made the rounds to each table as the 300-plus diners started on their salads." http://bit.ly/eckOym  

- The New York Times's Jeff Zeleny notes Romney is campaigning as America's CEO: "Romney makes the case, in private meetings with business owners and in appearances like a dinner speech here Saturday, that the halting economic recovery ... provides a compelling rationale that he is the strongest candidate to create jobs and take on President Obama ... The message is well suited to Mr. Romney's background as a successful executive ... And it offers him a chance to sidestep the concerns of social conservatives." http://nyti.ms/h7e7rW  

- POLITICO's James Hohmann finds New Hampshire forgiving on health care: "Two dozen Republicans interviewed by POLITICO this weekend said they're disappointed Mitt Romney created an individual mandate in Massachusetts requiring medical coverage, but appreciate both his vocal promises to repeal 'Obamacare' and his embrace of state's rights. 'He can absolutely get past this,' said John Stephen, the GOP gubernatorial nominee" last year. http://politi.co/i27niM  

- The Boston Globe's Glen Johnson wonders if health care is really Romney's biggest problem: "Still remaining ... is a lingering, fundamental question about his authenticity that has only been perpetuated by recent appearances ... Romney acted as if he were still undecided about another race... [H]e triggered snickers by telling the crowd it wasn't so much him that was the driving force behind a second campaign as it was his wife, Ann." http://bo.st/g8fCDL  

- The Los Angeles Times's Paul West captures Romney's larger makeover: "Defying his reputation as a 1950s square, the new, more casual Mitt Romney is popping up around the country as he readies a second run for president. He's going tieless on network TV, strolling NASCAR pits in Daytona and sporting skinny Gap jeans bought for him by his wife." http://lat.ms/hckNBi  

As Jay Nixon looks strong, Wisconsin becomes the Recall State and Doyle McManus explains it all, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

MONDAY STAKES - We don't want to jinx it, but it finally feels like the 2012 campaign is getting underway. It's about time: The first debate is less than two months from now. With the wheels turning just a little bit faster now, here's Morning Score's take on who has the most to gain or lose in the week ahead: 

(1) Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who heads to Iowa today as the closest thing we have to a declared, higher-tier presidential candidate, and will face correspondingly elevated expectations; (2) Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer, who's also going to be on the early-state circuit, which is where his throw-out-the-moneychangers message will have to resonate in order for his long-shot campaign to catch on; (3) Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee, the two Fox contributors-cum-potential 2012 candidates who didn't have their contracts suspended last week, who now have to struggle against the emerging consensus that they just aren't serious about the race; (4) Florida state Senate president Mike Haridopolos, whose frontrunner status in the Sunshine State GOP Senate primary is in peril, thanks to a damaging story about his high-dollar book deal with Brevard Community College; (5) New Mexico Democrats, who will be under pressure to produce an announced Senate candidate of their own, after Heather Wilson makes her campaign official on the Republican side today. 

TODAY IN IOWA - THE FLAG DROPS: Five Republican presidential hopefuls will appear before the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition at a forum later today, in the first major multi-candidate event of 2012. The lineup: Gingrich, Roemer, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former pizza baron Herman Cain. "Monday really represents the flag dropping and the race starting," Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn told KCCI. http://bit.ly/gMuNQI  

PLUS - CANDIDATE NO. 6 - O. Kay Henderson notes there's another game in town, too: "Ron Paul is the featured speaker in three Iowa cities today (Monday), part of a lecture series sponsored by The Family Leader, a group whose president had a key role in the successful effort to oust three Iowa Supreme Court justices who overturned a state law banning gay marriage." 

AND - THE NO-SHOWS - The Des Moines Register points out that some candidates will be making a statement by not visiting Iowa: "Two of the biggest names who aren't scheduled to attend: Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. 'They are losing out because it reinforces the talking point that they're not running,' said Chuck Laudner, former executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa. 'Every day that somebody comes to the conclusion that Palin or Huckabee or whoever isn't going to run, then they start lining up behind these other candidates.'" http://bit.ly/gd7B23  

THE OBAMA REELECT - FIRST IN? The first 2012 candidate with a formally organized, fully operational campaign that's active in the early primary states might just be ... Barack Obama. The Washington Post's Dan Balz: "No official announcement date has been locked down. But by sometime next month, the president's team is likely to be a functioning, legal entity with a plan ... The Obama team has decided it will not give Republicans a free pass to criticize the president as they fight over their nomination. The president's reelection committee plans to put its own organizations into the early primary and caucus states - Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. 'We can't cede the playing field,' one adviser said. 'We can't just play general election. So we're going to have to organize on the ground in early states.' Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada all qualify as important general election battlegrounds ... But the team will also start work in other critically important states - Pennsylvania, for example." http://wapo.st/e2VWc6  

THE NEW GINGRICH TIMELINE: The former House speaker will take "at least six or seven" weeks to make a final decision on whether to run for president, he told Fox News. That would put any announcement near the end of April. "My expectation," Gingrich told Fox News Friday, "is that by the end of this exploratory process that we'll have an announcement and we'll be in the race." http://yhoo.it/hIV8oh  

READ IT - "Callista Gingrich moves to spotlight" - POLITICO's Ben Smith and Maggie Haberman: "Callista Gingrich is, literally, in the foreground of her husband's new campaign website, over which her beaming blonde visage looms as large as his. The former speaker's wife co-signs his organization's e-mails, produces his movies, appears beside him on Fox News, and even reads his work for audio-book adaptations - but she has maintained such a low profile over a decade in their marriage that she remains an enigma even to some of his closest supporters." More: http://politi.co/eTXzm7  

NEWT'S VEHICLE - CNN explains the mechanics of Gingrich's new phase: "Gingrich took one more step toward launching a presidential bid on Friday by filing a 'Political Organization' notice with the Internal Revenue Service ... If Gingrich decides to officially enter the 2012 presidential race, his campaign can transfer funds from this new 527 group into a formal campaign committee, as long as all donations comply with federal campaign regulations." http://bit.ly/g6lmYW  

THE BIGGER 2012 PICTURE - "Republicans looking for the anti-Romney" - The Los Angeles Times's Doyle McManus: "Republican strategists warn that because of 'Romneycare' and other early flings with moderation, Romney lacks one important factor: fervent support from the strongly conservative voters who dominate the primary electorate in most states ... Some potential champions appear unlikely to run ... That process of elimination has led Republican strategists to begin focusing on two politicians who, though unknown to most Americans, at least appear serious about pursuing the nomination: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty ... Barbour, a former lobbyist and chairman of the RNC, is a prodigious fundraiser, a useful skill for any national candidate. Pawlenty, who calls himself a blue-collar 'Sam's Club' Republican, has built a solid following among conservatives in Iowa." http://lat.ms/hRGoLs   

THE LATEST FROM WISCONSIN - TOTAL RECALL - The standoff over collective bargaining rights has triggered large-scale campaigns to boot lawmakers - both Democrats and Republicans - out of office. The Journal Sentinel: "Formal recall campaigns have now been launched against 16 state senators - eight Republicans and eight Democrats. That's everyone in the 33-member Wisconsin Senate who is legally eligible to be recalled this year. Even though state law is designed to make recalls difficult and rare, some political insiders expect the petition drives now under way to succeed in forcing multiple lawmakers to face recall elections this summer. Much like the ongoing budget fight, the recall battles could play out on a national stage ... 'You can't pull off a recall unless there is legitimate and real unrest,' said state Democratic chair Mike Tate. 'The barrier is too high. You can't manufacture it.'" http://bit.ly/ijwVDJ  

VILSACK'S 'CRITICAL POINT' - Former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack has taken a clear step in the direction of a potential House campaign next year. The Register reports: "Advisers to Vilsack say she has not decided to run for the U.S. House, and where she might run in Iowa would depend on a still-developing reconfiguration of Iowa's congressional districts. But her political activity reached a critical point in the past week. Vilsack stepped down Monday from her position as executive director of the Iowa Initiative, a group whose mission is to prevent unplanned pregnancies ... Vilsack said she was taking a leave of absence to protect the Iowa Initiative from any political implications." http://bit.ly/fTsMO4  

NOT KICKING NIXON AROUND - POLITICO's David Catanese got his hands on a Public Opinion Strategies poll showing Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon in pretty good shape: "The survey, which was conducted on behalf of an issues-advocacy group and obtained by POLITICO, demonstrates Nixon's formidable political position more than 20 months before he asks Show-Me State voters for a second term ... It also found that Nixon's 61 percent job approval is up 17 points since February 2009. Just 26 percent of the 600 registered voters polled disapproved of Nixon's tenure. Of the 61 percent approving, 13 percent strongly approved of the governor." http://politi.co/i4rYyw  

OFF-CYCLE - IN VIRGINIA: Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell is ramping up his in-state political operation ahead of November's Virginia legislative elections, deploying his PAC to try and capture the state Senate for the GOP. The Times-Dispatch: "Paul Bennecke, the former political director for the Republican Governors Association, has been brought on to manage the PAC's involvement in targeted Senate contests ... All 140 statehouse seats are up for election this fall, after lawmakers redraw their district boundaries. Republicans are hoping to flip at least three seats to take a majority in the Senate, which is the last bastion of Democratic control in the state ... Phil Cox, executive director of RGA and McDonnell's gubernatorial race campaign manager, remains at the helm of McDonnell's political operation, including directing the PAC. D.J. Eckert will focus on the House contests." http://bit.ly/dHDec4   

CODA - TWEET OF THE DAY: "Gregory gave Bachman fair shot. Sure hope she is not serious about Presidency" - Former GE CEO @jack_welch, on Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann's "Meet the Press" appearance http://bit.ly/i5JjGJ  

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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