Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Manchin pushing shutdown pledge - McKinley stuns with $500K-plus haul - Poll: Trump second in 2012 field - Axelrod spins Wis. election - O'Malley rips Christie in N.J. - Kentucky's Williams up on TV
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 7 Apr 2011 05:48:23 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked] ) 

BREAKING OVERNIGHT - "Progress at W.H. meeting, but no budget deal yet" - POLITICO's David Rogers: "House Speaker John Boehner and President Barack Obama met late into the night Wednesday to narrow their differences even as Republicans sought political cover behind a short-term 'troop funding' bill that the White House has asked the GOP not to pursue. 'I remain confident that if we are serious about getting something done, we should be able to complete a deal to avert a government shutdown,' Obama said appearing in the White House press room near 10:45 p.m. ... Boehner would later appear with [Senate Majority leader Harry] Reid, each briefly describing the session as 'productive' ... But the speaker again sidestepped any commitment to a precise spending target and was more cautious about promising a deal can be reached." http://politi.co/fWlWzI  

SNEAK PEEK - MANCHIN PREPS FOR THE WORST - Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin will circulate a "dear colleague" letter today, asking fellow legislators to pledge that they'll give back their pay for any period of time that the government is shut down. "Every passing hour, the looming possibility of a government shutdown becomes more real ... Elected officials are the one group that will not be impacted. Just the opposite, in fact: we still get paid," Manchin warns in an advance copy of the message. "That is why, if the government shuts down, I will take this pledge, and I urge you all - from the President and Vice President to all Members of Congress - to take it with me: I will forego my federal salary until we reach an agreement." 

HOUSE EXCLUSIVE - TOP OF THE CLASS: West Virginia Rep. David McKinley brought in "well north of" $500,000 for his reelection bid in the first three months of the year, according to sources familiar with his campaign, likely making McKinley the top fundraiser among vulnerable Republicans last quarter. Those numbers may even put McKinley ahead of legendary fundraiser Michele Bachmann, whose congressional committee hit the half-million dollar mark for the same reporting period. (Bachmann raised more through her political action committee.) And McKinley's $500,000-plus take exceeds the largest amount raised by a vulnerable member of the majority in the first quarter of the 2009-2010 cycle - $461,000 by the late New Jersey Rep. John Adler. McKinley could face a tough challenge in 2012, especially since Democrats are in control of West Virginia redistricting. But this quarterly number is a very impressive show of strength for the freshman Republican. 

2012 TALKER - TRUMP IN SECOND? Nearly a fifth of Republican presidential primary voters say they want a real estate developer-turned-reality TV star to be their nominee for president. In an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Donald Trump ties former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee for second place in the GOP primary, with 17 percent of the vote. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is in first, with 21 percent. The Journal has more: "Mr. Trump 'may be a punch line but when he talks about the way to solve our problems, he makes a lot of sense to the average guy out there,' said Todd Mauney, a conservative Republican in Weatherford, Texas ... In a narrower field of five candidates, excluding Mr. Trump but including Messrs. Gingrich, Pawlenty and Barbour and Ms. Bachmann, Mr. Romney comes out with a comfortable 20-point lead, 40% to Mr. Gingrich's second-place 20%." http://on.wsj.com/id3Y3m  

As Newt Gingrich eyes Michigan, Jon Huntsman says his goodbyes and Adam Hasner casts the first stone, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

WISCONSIN BULLETIN - ADVANTAGE KLOPPENBURG - Wisconsin's Supreme Court election may be headed for a recount after liberal attorney JoAnne Kloppenburg finished this week's voting with 204-ballot edge over conservative Justice David Prosser. But the Democrat- and labor-backed Kloppenburg is already declaring victory and Democrats are calling the vote a message to GOP Gov. Scott Walker. The Journal-Sentinel reports that the "close margin had political insiders from both sides talking about the possibility of the first statewide recount in more than two decades. Any recount could be followed by lawsuits - litigation that potentially would be decided by the high court. Brian Nemoir, Prosser's campaign director, said Wednesday morning he had been through approximately 10 recounts in his political career, but none involving a statewide race. 'There's no playbook for this,' he said." http://bit.ly/hjfqa3  

MORE - THE VIEW FROM CHICAGO - Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod hailed the Wisconsin vote yesterday as a judgment against Republican overreach, telling the New York Observer that "independent voters have seen enough to know that they're uncomfortable." Axelrod: "It told me the atmosphere in Wisconsin's changed dramatically. I would venture to say if the governor there were running today, if you re-ran the same race you ran in November he would lose, and not by a few votes." http://bit.ly/h5otZj  

THE 2012 SCORE - EXIT HUNTSMAN - WITH A BANG: Ambassador Jon Huntsman delivered a confrontational message to China's government in his final public speech as the U.S. envoy there. In a Shanghai address on the U.S.-China relationship, Huntsman criticized the detainment of artist Ai Weiwei, and AFP reports he predicted that future ambassadors will "continue to speak up in defence of social activists, like Liu Xiaobo, Chen Guangcheng and now Ai Weiwei, who challenge the Chinese government to serve the public in all cases and at all times ... [He] made no mention of his future plans at the event ... Huntsman suggested China should open up its Internet, which is fenced in by an ever-expanding system of control and censorship dubbed the 'Great Firewall of China', aimed at snuffing out information the government deems a threat." http://bit.ly/fOO1Am  

TODAY - BARBOUR TO FLORIDA - Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour will meet with Republican state legislators in Tallahassee today, kicking off a multi-day trip that will also take him to South Carolina over the weekend. Henry Barbour, the governor's nephew and political adviser, tweeted that the governor will have former Jeb Bush aide-turned-Barbour adviser Sally Bradshaw with him in Florida. As for South Carolina, @henrybarbour writes: "Haley in Greenville and Spartanburg, SC this wkend for county conventions. Lots of friends up there. If he runs, SC is big priority." http://bit.ly/eiHXHo  and http://bit.ly/e54hM5  

CHRISTIE WATCH - STILL A 'NO' - New Jersey's governor repeated to ABC anchor Diane Sawyer Wednesday that he doesn't "feel ready in my heart to be president," again ruling out a 2012 bid on those grounds. "I don't want to participate in the vanity exercise just because people ask me to do it," Christie said. But the nationally popular Republican used his network interview as an opportunity to make his case against New Jersey teachers unions, relays ABC: "While sitting in the school library at Lincoln School in Kearney, N.J., Christie told Sawyer ...he blames the teachers union for the harsh cuts his administration is making, that includes layoffs and larger classrooms. 'I believe the teachers in New Jersey in the main are wonderful public servants that care deeply. But their union, their union are a group of political thugs,' Christie said." http://abcn.ws/eIuzjB  

PLUS - ATTACKED AT HOME - Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley blasted Christie as a "mean-spirited, ineffective" governor in a speech to the New Jersey Democratic Committee's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner last night. The Asbury Park Press captures the Democratic Governors Association chairman's speech: "O'Malley told diners that Christie is showing that Republican leadership doesn't fit New Jersey, and that he has obsessed over driving up 'YouTube ratings.' He said the Christie administration's bungling of the federal Race to the Top education program application in 2010 cost the state millions of dollars in grants 'because of sloppy, messy paperwork.' Taking aim at New Jersey's slow-to-recover unemployment numbers, Christie shows 'a totally dismissive attitude to creating jobs,' O'Malley said." http://bit.ly/dYaY4c  

PAWLENTY TAKES OFFICE - IN N.H. - The former Minnesota governor has picked out office space in Bedford for his exploratory committee with an opening date still to be determined. The Union Leader: "The committee has secured a lease for office space at 273 South River Road in Bedford, recently used as the headquarters for the Republican Party's New Hampshire Victory Committee for the 2010 election cycle. The date of the grand opening has yet to be announced but the office will soon be initially staffed by New Hampshire exploratory committee director Sarah Crawford Stewart." 

NOT A GOOD HEADLINE - "Teen finds campaign worker at back door at 3 a.m." - KCCI Des Moines: "Chloe Steward told KCCI she heard her dog barking around 3 a.m. and went to investigate. She said she found a man trying to get into the back door ... Police said Benjamin Foster was arrested and charged with public intoxication and trespassing. He was taken to the Polk County Jail. Iowa political strategist Eric Woolson ... confirmed to KCCI that Foster is employed by the Pawlenty Exploratory Committee." In a statement, Woolson said the committee was "extremely disappointed" in Foster and had suspended him for two weeks. http://bit.ly/g3jA75  

LOOKING AHEAD - HE'S A MACKINAC - Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has been chosen to headline the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference in Michigan next fall, the Detroit News reported. It's not Gingrich's first big appearance in the economically struggling battleground state: "Gingrich was the main speaker at last June's Mackinac Policy Conference, hosted by the Detroit Regional Chamber, where he called for a citywide enterprise zone with no taxes on investment or capital gains ... He also warned Michigan can't relive labor-management strife if it's going to survive its economic onslaught." http://bit.ly/eXeqif  

WILLIAMS-FARMER ON TV - Kentucky Senate President David Williams has gone up with his first television ads of the 2011 governor's race, touting himself and running mate Richie Farmer as a "bold conservative ticket" ahead of next month's GOP primary. "Kentucky is adrift ... David Williams will get Kentucky back on track," the narrator says. That's the same message Williams's team used in radio ads launched last week. But this time the Senate president appears in the commercial to make the case for himself. "Government has gotten too large, too intrusive. It costs too much and it's stifling job creation," Williams says. "This state needs strong leadership and we can't wait any longer." The ad was produced by FP1 Strategies, the GOP consulting firm recently launched by operatives Terry Nelson, Jon Downs and Danny Diaz. Watch it here: http://bit.ly/g21OS6  

HEAD START FOR MENENDEZ - New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez raised $1.6 million in the first quarter of 2011 and finished last month with about $4 million in the bank. That's a hefty cash reserve for the former Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman, who raised about $12 million when he won his first full Senate term in 2006. Menendez has yet to draw a Republican challenger for 2012, and a spokesman for his campaign told Score he's "focused on protecting New Jersey's middle class families and helping create good-paying jobs - and he'll have the resources he needs to get that message out come campaign time." PolitickerNJ had the news first: http://bit.ly/eWnCZV  

THAT ESCALATED FAST - HASNER VS. LEMIEUX - Consider it the 2012 version of Charlie Crist's famous hug with President Obama: Former Florida Sen. George LeMieux's past description of himself as a "Charlie Crist Republican" is already coming back to haunt him. Former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner hasn't formally jumped into the GOP Senate primary, but his exploratory committee has already launched a website that puts LeMieux's relationship with Crist front and center. The appeal to voters: "Say no to Charlie Crist Republican George LeMieux." http://bit.ly/gAdFb5  

SENATE POLL OF THE DAY - THE KENNEDY SEAT? Only former Democratic Rep. Joe Kennedy can hold Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown below the 50-percent mark in a 2012 match-up, according to a poll from Suffolk University released last night. Kennedy, who has ruled out the race, trails Brown by 5 percentage points, 40 to 45 percent. Other Democrats fare much less well, pollster David Paleologos says: "Brown led by at least 15 points in all matchups against potential Democratic challengers, with the exception of Joe Kennedy ... 'What is significant about Joe Kennedy here isn't just his popularity, but the dip in Scott Brown's number,' said Paleologos. "Historically, when an incumbent takes less than 50 percent against an opponent, that means that he or she is vulnerable ... [I]t's clear the unwilling Democratic front-runner would be a strong potential challenger." http://bit.ly/giOiO0  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I believe we are heading into deep and treacherous waters." - Fox News host Glenn Beck, doing his thing on the first show after news broke that he's leaving the network http://bit.ly/h6qcIc  

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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