Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Romney beats Obama in Dartmouth poll - Ensign sends shockwave through Nev. - Krauthammer: Trump's 'absolutely' in - Obama predicts Pelosi comeback - Van Hollen sues FEC - Denish could run for House
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2011 05:31:25 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

FIRST IN SCORE - STILL MR. NEW HAMPSHIRE - Mitt Romney is by far the strongest Republican candidate against President Barack Obama in the state of New Hampshire, according to a new poll from Dartmouth University's Nelson A. Rockefeller Center. In the center's fourth "State of the State" survey, Romney leads Obama in a general election match-up by 8 points, 47 percent to 39 percent. No other Republican comes close to that mark: Obama leads Mike Huckabee by 8 points, Tim Pawlenty by 16, Haley Barbour by 19, Donald Trump by 22 and Sarah Palin by a yawning 27-point margin. Romney's strong performance comes from his appeal to independent and undeclared voters, who make up a hugely influential bloc in New Hampshire's primary and general elections. Among voters unaffiliated with either party, Romney leads Obama, 44 percent to 36 percent. No other Republican contender tested in the poll beats Obama with those voters. 

MORE - OBAMA VULNERABLE: While no active Republican candidate beats Obama except Romney, several - including Barbour, Pawlenty and Huckabee - hold him under 50 percent of the vote and have room to grow as they become better known. Dartmouth Professor Ronald Shaiko, who conducted the poll, noted that many voters are "not willing to make a claim for Obama when they don't even know the other person." The president's fundamentals in the Granite State are not strong: His job approval has fallen to 36 percent positive, 47 percent negative, and 60 percent of respondents described the national economy as "poor." The poll tested 426 registered voters from April 11-14 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent. The survey did not test several potential GOP candidates, such as Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann. 

AND - THE LOCAL ANGLE: New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch remains the most popular statewide politician, with 52 percent of voters saying they have a favorable view of him and just 15 percent saying the opposite. Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen has the next-highest favorability rating at 38 percent, but her unfavorability is nearly equal at 34 percent. Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte's favorability is at 35 percent and her unfavorability is just 18 percent. Full results here: http://politi.co/f84myD  

As Sharron Angle hits a speed bump, Bob Corker thinks big and Hector Balderas makes it a fight, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

EARTHQUAKE IN NEVADA - "John Ensign to resign, Dean Heller likely replacement" - The Las Vegas Sun: "Embattled Sen. John Ensign announced [Thursday] afternoon he will resign from office, effective May 3. The move opens the door for Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval to appoint Rep. Dean Heller to finish out the term ... Sun columnist Jon Ralston first reported earlier in the afternoon that Ensign would step down. If Heller is appointed, it would give him a strategic leg up as an incumbent against his presumed opponent in the 2012 Senate race, Democrat Rep. Shelley Berkley. Berkley is still expected to run." POLITICO's Manu Raju and John Bresnahan explain the timing: "Ensign has been under investigation by the Senate Ethics Committee over whether he violated Senate rules during his affair with Cindy Hampton, a former campaign aide ... GOP insiders speculated that Ensign was stepping down to avoid a public report from the Ethics Committee ... Hours after the Ensign news broke, the two leaders of the Senate Ethics Committee - Sens. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) - issued a short statement saying the panel 'has worked diligently for 22 months on this matter and will complete its work in a timely fashion. Senator Ensign has made the appropriate decision.'" http://bit.ly/ex6Igw and http://politi.co/eQHvD2  

RIPPLE EFFECT - THE HELLER SEAT - If the Nevada congressman is appointed to the Senate, that could touch off a special election for his 2nd District House seat. Republican and Democratic candidates would be chosen without a primary. There are already two GOP candidates in the hunt to succeed Heller: former U.S.S. Cole commander Kirk Lippold and defeated 2010 Senate candidate Sharron Angle. But Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, state Republican Party Chairman Mark Amodei and state Sen. Greg Brower would likely be stronger candidates in an insider-friendly nomination process. On the Democratic side, names to watch include: Nevada Treasurer Kate Marshall, Assemblywoman Debbie Smith and former state Democratic Party Chair Jill Derby. 

THE 2012 SCORE - OBAMA PREDICTS - President Barack Obama told an audience of DNC donors in San Francisco Thursday that Nancy Pelosi will someday again be speaker of the House. "What can I say about Nancy Pelosi? She has been -- I think will go down in history as one of the finest speakers that we have ever had," he said, in a nod to the Democratic leader's presence at the event. Obama continued: "And she is going to continue to be in the future one of the great speakers that we've ever had." 

POLL OF THE WEEK - SLUMPING - Americans are in a dark, pessimistic mood and they're taking it out on every politician in sight, according to new polling from CBS and the New York Times. The implications might be most severe for the man at the top of the 2012 ticket: "Capturing what appears to be an abrupt change in attitude, the survey shows that the number of Americans who think the economy is getting worse has jumped 13 percentage points in just one month ... The dour public mood is dragging down ratings for both parties in Congress and for President Obama, the poll found ... 75 percent of respondents disapproved of the way Congress is handling its job. Disapproval of Mr. Obama's handling of the economy has never been broader - at 57 percent of Americans - a warning sign as he begins to set his sights on re-election in 2012." http://nyti.ms/eO6aTU  

PLUS - ON THE BUDGET FIGHT: "In what Republicans can take as a positive sign as they seek a more limited government, 55 percent of poll respondents said they would rather have fewer services from a smaller government than more services from a bigger one ... Twice as many respondents said they would prefer cuts in spending on federal programs that benefit people like them as said they would favor a rise in taxes to pay for such programs. Yet more than 6 in 10 of those surveyed said they believed Medicare was worth the costs." http://nyti.ms/eO6aTU  

STARTER'S PISTOL -AND THEY'RE (FINALLY) OFF: The Republican nomination fight is about to begin in earnest, thanks to a series of events over the next two weeks that will impose some clarity on the GOP field. POLITICO's Jonathan Martin notes what's "on the immediate horizon: "Showtime for Mitch and Haley: The Indiana legislative session is scheduled to end a week next Friday, April 29th, and Gov. Mitch Daniels has said repeatedly that he'll make an announcement soon after that. Daniels is set to deliver a major education speech the following week, on May 4th ... Gov. Haley Barbour says he'll decide whether he's in or out by the end of April - meaning a decision is likely to come sometime next week ... Huntsman's return and early state debut: Amb. Jon Huntsman's resignation from his post in China is effective on April 30 ... On May 7, Huntsman is slated to deliver a commencement address at the University of South Carolina" .... Mitt takes the stage: "The former Massachusetts governor will make his first joint appearance with other presidential candidates on April 29th... Romney will speak about economic issues at a dinner in Manchester being hosted by Americans for Prosperity" ... The debates begin: "Republicans across the country will get their first look at how some of their candidates present themselves and engage one another on May 5 when Fox News and the South Carolina GOP host the race's kick-off debate in Greenville." http://politi.co/f2tV5I 

SAVE THE DATE - CATTLE CALL IN S.C. - Multiple Republican presidential hopefuls will appear at the South Carolina Republican Party's Silver Elephant Banquet on May 6, CNN reports. Peter Hamby: "The dinner ... is the party's biggest fundraising event of the year and the keynote address is usually offered to a possible White House contender or one of the party's rising stars ... But with a clutch of potential 2012 presidential candidates already slated to appear in South Carolina on May 5 for a presidential debate in Greenville, state party officials decided to hold a presidential forum at the banquet and offer speaking slots to all of the debate participants." http://bit.ly/dI9wkI  

TRUMP VS. KRAUTHAMMER - Donald Trump was so outraged about his treatment at the hands of Charles Krauthammer that he ... picked up the phone and made a very polite phone call to the conservative columnist. Krauthammer recounted the episode on Fox News Thursday: "I expected a tirade, which he had every right to do given what I have been saying about him. In fact, he was courteous but very calm, and he made his case, rather than sort of attacking everything I said about him. Simply, he made his case: 'I'm a serious businessman, I'm a serious candidate.'" More: "Krauthammer now believes that Trump is 'absolutely' running for President, otherwise he would not have attempted to make a calm case for his campaign, but 'would have screamed and yelled and stomped' about it. 'I give him credit the way he handled himself,' Krauthammer added." http://bit.ly/espzjk  

MONEY WATCH - CVH GOES TO COURT: Maryland Rep. and former DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen is suing the Federal Election Commission in the hope of forcing greater disclosure from anonymously funded campaign groups. POLITICO's Ken Vogel: "Van Hollen's lawsuit, filed Thursday in federal court in Washington, challenges FEC regulations that allow nonprofit groups to shield their donors while airing ads known as 'electioneering communications,' which don't expressly urge votes for or against a candidate. The regulations in question were written before the Supreme Court's decision in Citizens United vs. FEC in January 2010 ... Van Hollen on Thursday also filed a petition asking the FEC to tighten its regulations to require the disclosure of donors for so-called 'independent expenditures' that explicitly urge a vote for or against a candidate. 'The absence of transparency will enable special interest groups to bankroll campaign initiatives while operating under a veil of anonymity,' Van Hollen said in a statement." http://politi.co/hOsA2f  

LOOKS LIKE A CANDIDATE - BALDERAS MOVES: New Mexico Auditor Hector Balderas has filed papers to run for Senate in 2012 and plans to hold an announcement event next week, the Albuquerque Journal reports. That would set up a Democratic primary fight between Balderas and Rep. Martin Heinrich. From the paper: "Balderas has tried to build a reputation as a Democrat who will buck party influence to fight corruption as state auditor. Most recently, his office aided federal investigators looking into possible bid-rigging of corrections contracts in the state. A federal grand jury recently indicted a former corrections employee in connection with the investigation. Heinrich also made headway in the primary ... when the state's American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees union endorsed him." http://bit.ly/gd9M5u  

ELSEWHERE IN N.M. - THE HEINRICH SEAT - Two high-profile Democrats may enter the race to replace Heinrich in the House: Former Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and former Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez. NMPolitics.net reports: "Ch&aacute;vez is meeting this week with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the fundraising arm of Democrats in the U.S. House, to talk about the possibility of running, a source with knowledge of the situation confirmed. Another source said Denish 'has been getting a lot of encouragement from inside the district, and with solid name ID and a strong base there, she has time to test the waters.' Denish had been considering running for the U.S. Senate." http://bit.ly/htNpCD  

THE 2016 SCORE - PRESIDENT CORKER? Tennessee's junior senator isn't running for president in 2012, but Bob Corker acknowledged to the Tennessean that he might take a look at the job down the line. Said Corker: "Do I think that I have a vision for our country that would be one the American people would support? Yes. Do I think I have the ability to lead and be an executive and to get good people that you could trust, but then also really drill down on the things that matter? Yes. Am I gifted with a lot of rhetorical flair? Not really." More: "'Maybe someday,' Corker added on a presidential run. 'But it's just not on my plate.'" http://bit.ly/fm71oR  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "If you run for president, will you hire me for your campaign?" - Meghan McCain, to Donald Trump http://bit.ly/hUQahx  

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