Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Bin Laden death shakes landscape - Mike Murphy: 'Politics are great for Obama' - Romney, Pawlenty praise him - InTrade: Obama reelect at 64% - 3 days to first GOP debate - Daniels decision 'within weeks'
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 2 May 2011 05:34:51 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

FLASHBACK - BARACK OBAMA, OCT. 7, 2008: "We will kill bin Laden; we will crush Al Qaida. That has to be our biggest national security priority." 

OBAMA, LAST NIGHT: "Tonight, I can report to the American people and to the world that the United States has conducted an operation that killed Osama bin Laden, the leader of al Qaeda, and a terrorist who's responsible for the murder of thousands of innocent men, women, and children." 

STRAIGHT TALK FROM @murphymike: "Huge American Victory. Politics are great for Obama, not so great for continuing the current mission in Afghanistan." 

WATCH THESE NUMBERS - From Gallup on April 8: "Americans are now about evenly split in their views of how things are going for the United States in Afghanistan, with 47% saying things are going well and 49% saying things are going badly. This marks the first time since July 2009 that fewer than half have said things are going badly." http://bit.ly/inHrgL  

PLUS - HOW HIGH WILL IT GO? Obama job approval on April 28: 46 percent approve-46 percent disapprove http://bit.ly/jWajOZ  

THINGS WE WON'T HEAR THIS WEEK - "I think what is increasingly clear is that we have a spectator in chief instead of a commander in chief" (Newt Gingrich, March 18) ... "Mr. President, your hesitation and vacillation in the Middle East breed uncertainty. It's symptomatic of the puzzling way you govern" (Sarah Palin, April 26) ... "Freedom has been our watchword, our anchor and our moral guide for nearly every cause both here and abroad. But today, we have lost this mission because our president doesn't believe in it" (Rick Santorum, April 28) 

ROMNEY, PAWLENTY CONGRATULATE OBAMA - ONLY 2012-ERS TO DO SO - Mitt Romney: "This is a great victory for lovers of freedom and justice everywhere. Congratulations to our intelligence community, our military and the president. My thoughts are with the families of Osama bin Laden's many thousands of victims, and the brave servicemen and women who have laid down their lives in pursuit of this murderous terrorist" ... Tim Pawlenty: "In the hours after the 9/11 attacks, President Bush promised that America would bring Osama bin Laden to justice - and we did. I want to congratulate America's armed forces and President Obama for a job well done. Let history show that the perseverance of the US military and the American people never wavered." 

THE MARKET RESPONDS: InTrade contract, "Barack Obama to be reelected president in 2102," rose 17.6 percent to nearly 70 percent overnight. It's now trading at 64 percent. http://bit.ly/lW9Zo0  

As you wake up to a changed political world, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

BACK IN THE NORMAL POLITICAL NEWS CYCLE ... ACCELERATION: The pace of the presidential race continues to pick up, with the first debate scheduled and several new faces on the national circuit. Here are the big events to watch this week: 

- May 4: Mitch Daniels gives a speech on education at the American Enterprise Institute; 

- May 5: Several candidates - including Pawlenty, Santorum, Buddy Roemer, Herman Cain and Ron Paul - will participate in a debate hosted by Fox and the South Carolina Republican Party; 

- May 6: The S.C. GOP holds its Silver Elephant Dinner, where presidential contenders may be in attendance; 

- May 7: Jon Huntsman gives a commencement address at the University of South Carolina. 

THIS MORNING - PENCE BRIEFS: Indiana Rep. Mike Pence has asked a group of supporters to participate in an "invitation-only, private conference call" at 10 a.m. Eastern, according to a message shared with Morning Score. The former House GOP conference chairman is expected to run for governor in 2012, but Pence hasn't said much about his political future since announcing in January that he would not run for president. The invitation did not specify the subject of this morning's call. 

ELSEWHERE IN INDIANA - DANIELS WATCH: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said over the weekend that he will decide on a presidential campaign "within weeks" - meaning his indecision could hang over the Republican field until well into the new month. The Indianapolis Star reported Sunday that Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad - who said last week he doesn't think Daniels will enter the race - has encouraged the Hoosier executive to run. Branstad said Daniels's "economic message will resonate with Iowans. Certainly a governor with the record Mitch Daniels has, I think, could be surprisingly strong." http://bit.ly/khCX1S  and http://bit.ly/mC5LVz  

ROMNEY'S MAP - PLAYING IN IOWA: Romney has tapped Iowa operative Sara Craig to run his 2012 caucus operation, indicating that he'll make a serious effort in the state that knocked his 2008 campaign off course. Jonathan Martin had the news first: "[Romney] staffing up signals that a return trip will take place in the near future ... [A]ides to the former Massachusetts governor have vivid memories of the time and money they devoted to Iowa in 2008, only to see Mike Huckabee ride a wave of support from evangelicals to defeat Romney by nine points ... But Romney retains a strong following in the state and early polls show him at or close to the top. He won 30,000 votes in the 2008 caucuses and carried a slew of counties, performing particularly strong in more moderate eastern Iowa." http://politi.co/lLvE85  

CABLE BAIT - BACHMANN GAFFES - BIG TIME: Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann crossed one of the biggest rhetorical lines in U.S. politics over the weekend, comparing the growth of federal government power to the Holocaust during a visit to New Hampshire. AP: "Bachmann ... said she was shocked to hear that many Americans weren't aware that millions of Jews had died until after World War II ended. Bachmann said the next generation will ask similar questions about what their elders did to prevent them from facing a huge tax burden. 'I tell you this story because I think in our day and time, there is no analogy to that horrific action,' she said, referring to the Holocaust. 'But only to say, we are seeing eclipsed in front of our eyes a similar death and a similar taking away. It is this disenfranchisement that I think we have to answer to.'" http://bit.ly/k3Wvbr  

AND - THE SCRUTINY COMES - The Washington Post's Phil Rucker and Paul Kane take a good look this morning at Bachmann's record in Congress, or lack thereof: "Despite her fame and her skill at attracting controversial headlines, Bachmann has yet to leave her mark as a policymaker or legislator. On Capitol Hill, she holds little sway with her colleagues and has guided no substantial legislation into law. A bill Bachmann introduced last year to clear the way for the new Stillwater bridge - her top local priority - attracted no co-sponsors and died in a subcommittee. One of her biggest legislative accomplishments to date was approval of a 2009 resolution supporting National Hydrocephalus Awareness Month, to bring attention to the brain disorder. Bachmann says there is a reason for this: She is unwilling to adopt many of the skills traditionally associated with success in Congress - inside maneuvering, charming committee leaders and trading favors with colleagues." http://wapo.st/jOxQtm  

SCENES FROM THE REELECT - AXE DEFENDS PRIORITIES USA - David Axelrod denied on Sunday that it's hypocritical for Democrats to set up high-dollar independent expenditure groups for the 2012 cycle, after blasting the role outside money played in 2010. On NBC's "Meet the Press," the former White House senior adviser defended Priorities USA, the group set up last week by Obama alums Bill Burton and Sean Sweeney. "The independent group that was formed was formed in response to the ones that spent hundreds and millions of dollars in the last campaign to defeat Democratic candidates of undisclosed large contributions," Axelrod said. "I don't think this is healthy, I don't think it's good. But it's the system we have, and you can't expect one side to operate under one set of rules and the other side to operate under another." 

DONALD TRUMP, VALUES VOTER: Trump, fresh off a brutal Saturday evening at the White House Correspondents Dinner, defended his flip-flops on single-payer health care and taxing the rich in an interview with the New York Times. "We had a much different country when I proposed those things," he said. And check out how Trump articulated his position on gay marriage: "It's like in golf ... A lot of people - I don't want this to sound trivial - but a lot of people are switching to these really long putters, very unattractive ... It's weird. You see these great players with these really long putters, because they can't sink three-footers anymore. And, I hate it. I am a traditionalist. I have so many fabulous friends who happen to be gay, but I am a traditionalist." 

MORE - CAN'T MAKE IT UP - "Mr. Trump, 64, repeatedly found ways to weave the topic of his wealth, and its luxurious reach, into the conversation. 'Look at that,' he interrupted, pointing to a giant white plane hovering outside the room's windows. 'That's my plane. How beautiful is that?'" http://nyti.ms/iEzEgn  

HOUSE SPECIAL I - LIVE ONE IN N.Y.? The campaign for former GOP Rep. Chris Lee's seat is looking surprisingly competitive, according to a Siena College poll that shows independent Jack Davis splitting the right-of-center vote. Republican Assemblywoman Jane Corwin is currently pulling 36 percent of the vote to Democratic Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul's 31 percent, with the self-funding Davis at 23 percent. Election Day in the 26th District is May 24. http://nydn.us/iFPoEw  

HOUSE SPECIAL II - WAIT 'TIL SEPTEMBER: Nevada voters will go to the polls on Sept. 13 to fill the 2nd District seat left vacant by Dean Heller's appointment to the Senate. But there's still no clarity on how the parties will choose their nominees for the seat, the Reno Gazette-Journal reports: "Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller has scheduled a press conference Monday morning to discuss his office's interpretation of state law that sets the format for the special election, including how candidates qualify for the ballot. State Democrats say the state law opens the election to any qualified candidate, while Republicans contend that each party central committee should nominate one candidate to run in the special election." http://bit.ly/j0HYXW  

CODA - TWEET OF THE DAY: "Go USA!" - @lindsaylohan http://bit.ly/jj2m8Y 

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