Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: GOP wants 'more serious' 2012 race - Romney plans Nashua stop - Steele says field 'not getting . traction' - S.C. straw poll Friday - Oprah airs dated interview - Pence tips hand on gov race
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 3 May 2011 05:41:00 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

SET YOUR DVR - DANIELS THIS A.M. - Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels will appear on "Fox and Friends" this morning at 7 o'clock Eastern; the potential presidential candidate hasn't yet commented on the killing of Osama bin Laden, but that's likely to change shortly. Daniels's national media appearance comes ahead of tomorrow's trip to Washington, where he'll deliver a speech on education and accept an award from the Arab American Institute Foundation. Previous 2012-er responses here: http://politi.co/kwpQVU  

OBAMA LAST NIGHT - At a bipartisan dinner for members of Congress: "As Americans learned that the United States had carried out an operation that resulted in the capture and death of Osama bin Laden, we -- (applause) -- you know, I think we experienced the same sense of unity that prevailed on 9/11 ... There have been several moments like this during the course of this year that have brought us together as an American family, whether it was the tragedy in Tucson or, most recently, our unified response to the terrible storms that have taken place in the South. Last night was one of those moments. And so tonight, it is my fervent hope that we can harness some of that unity and some of that pride to confront the many challenges that we still face." 

STRAIGHT TALK FROM JMART - "2012 Republican race gets wake-up call" - POLITICO's Jonathan Martin: "[T]he dramatic killing of terrorist leader Osama bin Laden by American commandos will immediately reorder a Republican presidential contest that until now had been colored by provocative voices and marginal issues ... The hope among establishment Republicans is that the succession of events will trigger an end to what they see as the silly season - that party activists will sober up and end their flirtation with the fringe. 'This is probably a wake-up call that the stakes of this game are very serious,' said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a veteran political strategist. 'If the byproduct of this is that we get a little more serious about what it takes to lead the country in the Oval Office, then that will be a really good thing'" ... MORE - GO BIG: "[P]arty strategists urged mainline candidates like [Jon] Huntsman, Daniels, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty to use the next few days to subtly begin to make the case that Sunday's events demand only White House hopefuls plausibly seen as commander-in-chief material. Ed Gillespie, a former RNC chairman and top George W. Bush adviser, pushed the candidates to set their sights on only the most consequential issues. 'We have to make it big - the bigger, the better,' Gillespie said of the contours of the election." http://politi.co/iND65a  

THE NEXT QUESTION - HOW HIGH AND HOW LONG? The Republican pollsters at Public Opinion Strategies put together a chart tracking national security-related bumps dating back to Pearl Harbor and concluded: "On average, the President's approval rating increases 13 points and a bump lasts an average of 22 weeks. That does not include the 105 week bump that President George W. Bush received after 9/11. The 'bump' on job approval shows the total increase in approval rating from prior to the event. The duration of the increase indicates the number of weeks until the President's job approval rating returned to the prior level (so, for instance, the 35 point bump that George W. Bush got did not last the entire 105 weeks - the spike was the high, and it took 105 weeks to return to the pre-9/11 level.)" See the chart here: http://bit.ly/iRKHe8  

As Ross Miller fires the starter's pistol, Jack Davis feels the heat and John Ensign rides off into the sunset, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

THE 2012 SCORE - PALIN DOCTRINE: Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin gave her most heavily foreign policy-oriented speech to date last night, telling a group of military families at Colorado Christian University that "we can't fight every war" or "undo every injustice in the world." POLITICO's Andy Barr: "Palin clearly stated a foreign policy philosophy that she says dates back to the Reagan administration - but in many ways came off as a five-point folksy version of the Powell Doctrine. First, Palin said, "we should only commit our forces when clear and vital American interests are at stake. Period." That point led to her second, dismissing nation-building as a 'nice idea in theory,' but not the 'main purpose' guiding American foreign policy." The Denver Post: "Palin never mentioned President Barack Obama by name - instead saying, 'We thank President (George W.) Bush for having made the right calls to set up this victory.'" http://politi.co/isWkzC  and http://bit.ly/jgs3oW  

TWO DAYS TO DEBATE - ROMNEY PASSES: The first Republican presidential primary debate will be frontrunner-free. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's camp announced Monday that he won't be participating in Thursday's forum in Greenville, S.C. Explained Matt Rhoades: "It's still early, the field is too unsettled and he's not yet an announced candidate." More from the Wall Street Journal: "Mr. Romney's decision to skip the South Carolina debate follows an announcement by Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann during an appearance on Fox News Sunday that she, too, would take a pass because she doesn't plan to make a formal announcement until June. Likewise, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and real estate mogul Donald Trump still haven't announced the formation of exploratory committees - a requirement to participate in the debate set by Fox News." http://on.wsj.com/moWbnj  

BUT - HE RAMPS UP IN N.H. - Romney's going to Nashua today for a small, campaign-style event, days after he spoke at an Americans for Prosperity dinner in Manchester. The Telegraph: "Romney will return Tuesday for an intimate meeting with some business leaders in Nashua. As a courtesy, Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce President Chris Williams was helping to set up the private sit-down for Romney. Before the big cattle show Friday, Romney tried to make some noise of his own, visiting a Manchester gas station to protest soaring oil prices." http://bit.ly/iGZnGa  

BACK IN S.C. - FULL SPEED AHEAD: The South Carolina Republican Party is moving forward with the debate and a presidential straw poll set for this weekend. CNN's Peter Hamby: "South Carolina GOP Chairwoman Karen Floyd held a conference call with members of the party's executive committee to brief them on the debate as well as plans for the state party convention, being held Friday and Saturday in Columbia. Each of the debate participants are being invited to speak at the Silver Elephant Banquet in Columbia on Friday night, the state party's biggest fundraiser of the year. Party officials plan to conduct a 2012 presidential straw poll at the banquet on Friday evening." http://bit.ly/mik9JW  

SCENES FROM THE REELECT - "Oprah didn't scrap dated Obama scoop" - The New York Post: "After a morning of agonizing, Oprah yesterday aired her interview with President Obama -- taped nearly a week ago -- without mentioning the stunning news that Osama bin Laden had been killed in a daring raid ordered by the president ... [T]he show aired, uncut and without an Oprah intro explaining what had happened since it was taped. The only indication was a line on the screen, 'Previously recorded,' that appeared several times during the show ... Subjects ranged from Obama's release that morning of a copy of his long-form birth certificate to the secrets of a healthy marriage to his re-election campaign. But no mention was made during the hour of the war on terrorism." http://nyp.st/kCQzun  

HE'S BACK, BABY - STEELE VS. THE FIELD - Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele pooh-poohed his party's array of 2012 contenders, saying in an appearance on ABC's "Top Line" that candidates should stop "whining" about Donald Trump. "I'd be less worried about that and more concerned about the fact no one else has stepped up to challenge him, to push back, and to stake their claim," Steele said. "Right now the Republican candidates for the nomination are not getting the traction they need to go up against the president of the United States, an incumbent president of the United States who is a formidable campaigner, who's a heck of a fundraiser, and who has the wind of the economy and now some international success in his sails." http://abcn.ws/kjZRFn  

HOUSE SIREN - GOP SWATS DAVIS: Republicans are taking independent House candidate Jack Davis seriously enough to go on the attack against the potential spoiler in New York's 26th District. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reports: "The New York Republican State Committee is out with a new mailer painting Davis, a former Democrat who is running on the Tea Party ballot line in the May 24 election, as a liberal who is a supporter of President Barack Obama, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and Rep. Charlie Rangel - all three of whom are pictured in the item ... Republicans privately say they are growing concerned over Davis's presence in the race and fear that he could split Republican votes with [Assemblywoman Jane] Corwin ... Davis, a wealthy industrialist, has spent over $1.4 million out of his own pocket on TV ads, casting himself as a protectionist-oriented candidate." http://politi.co/jvtENw  

FREE-FOR-ALL IN NEVADA: Democrats may yet have the chance to run against Sharron Angle one more time. Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller announced Monday that the candidates in next fall's special House election will be chosen in an open primary - a decision that's likely to prompt legal challenges, as well as increase Angle's odds of winning the GOP nomination. The Las Vegas Sun: "The special election will be Sept. 13 to replace U.S. Rep. Dean Heller ... A number of candidates from both parties are already actively campaigning for the seat. Republicans include former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, state Sen. Greg Brower, R-Reno, and Kirk Lippold, former commander of the U.S.S. Cole. Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki and Nevada Republican Party chairman Mark Amodei are also considering the race. For Democrats, Nancy Price and Jill Derby, who both have run for the seat in the past, are campaigning for the seat. State Treasurer Kate Marshall hasn't made an official announcement, but has hired a campaign manager." http://bit.ly/jQxdOt  

PENCE UPDATE - IN AND OUT: Indiana Rep. Mike Pence briefly showed his cards on the 2012 governor's race on Monday, posting an announcement video on YouTube before pulling it down and delaying his entry into the campaign. The Evansville Courier and Press broke the news: "After abiding for months by Gov. Mitch Daniels' call for potential 2012 candidates for governor to 'stifle themselves' during the legislative session that ended Friday, [Pence] was set to announce his plans on Monday ... Several Republicans said a Pence video announcement of his campaign for governor was loaded onto YouTube briefly Monday morning, but then quickly taken down. Then, two hours before [a scheduled] conference call, Pence's campaign said it was being postponed. 'Due to the momentous news concerning Osama bin Laden, our conference call will be delayed until later this week,' the notice said." http://bit.ly/jMQjUm  

WIS. SMOKE SIGNALS - Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett isn't exactly saying he'd like a rematch with Republican Gov. Scott Walker. But he fired up Democrats at a weekend event in stump speech-like fashion, WisPolitics reports: "Barrett tore into Walker over his push to change collective bargaining and talked about a possible recall election next year. 'Regardless of who the candidate is, I will be out there with you and we'll be out there together,' Barrett said, firing up the crowd. 'And we will make him listen to the people of the state.' Barrett also said Walker wasn't listening to the people of Wisconsin when he dropped a 'bomb' on the state." http://bit.ly/mzSkzD  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I hope that I can do better in the future. I hope that I can learn to love you with all of my heart, soul and strength and to love others as myself. My colleagues, I bid you farewell." - John Ensign, whose resignation from the Senate takes effect today http://politi.co/jlxrIH  

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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