Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Decision point in NY-26 - Boehner, Gillibrand parachute in - 2012 braces for Newt - Christie praises Daniels - Rush zings: 'Serious...means boring and moderate' - Angle, O'Donnell backers eye Neb.
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 May 2011 05:43:28 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

THE HOUSE CAMPAIGN - DOG FIGHT IN NEW YORK - There's no doubt about it anymore: The race for New York's GOP-leaning 26th Congressional District is up for grabs. Three consecutive polls have put the race in single digits between Republican Jane Corwin, Democrat Kathy Hochul and rogue conservative Jack Davis. There are just two weeks to Election Day, which means it's time for the party committees and independent groups to make the final call on whether to play here. Both sides have played it safe so far, but with the candidates throwing around names like "Paul Ryan" and "Nancy Pelosi," the election has already become a symbolically loaded proxy fight, whether or not the parties embrace it. 

DEMS CIRCLE THE RACE - POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reports: "In the last month alone the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has funneled nearly $100,000 to Democrat Kathy Hochul's campaign, according to a party official. The committee has provided research, communications and political support to Hochul; all told, the committee has directed $47,000 to Hochul in coordinated funds, and an additional $50,000 coming in the form of fundraising ... Party officials have yet to purchase TV ads - a tacit acknowledgement that they remain underdogs in a GOP-friendly district." http://politi.co/mvcgtZ  

OTHER GROUPS ARE DIPPING THEIR TOES IN THE WATER: American Crossroads, the deep-pocketed conservative outside group, has acknowledged that it's looking at the district, and a strategist monitoring the race told Score that Crossroads has inquired about TV rates. Labor is poking at the special election, too: The SEIU-affiliated New York State Public Employees Federation has sent pro-Hochul mail to members in the district and is dialing up a member-to-member phone contact program this week. http://politi.co/mMOax0  

THE LATEST NUMBERS: A PPP survey - commissioned by Daily Kos and the SEIU - gave Hochul a 4-point lead over Corwin, showing the Democrat with 35 percent to the Republican's 31 percent and Davis's 24 percent. The most important numbers in the poll: (1) Barack Obama's disapproval rating in the district is 13 points higher than his approval rating; (2) Corwin's net favorability rating with independent voters is 20 points in the negative direction; (3) Voters want their new member of Congress to caucus with the GOP by a 7-point margin, 44 percent to 37 percent. http://bit.ly/iGlwXe  

SURROGATES JUMP IN: House Speaker John Boehner was in Buffalo yesterday, touting Corwin as the only candidate who would "work with us to stand up to Nancy Pelosi and the liberals in Washington." And Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is headed to stump for Hochul, PolitickerNY reports: "The senator announced her endorsement of Hochul's candidacy earlier this month. Her Empire PAC donated $1,000 Hochul early in the race, and also sent out a fundraising pitch." http://bit.ly/m345qr  and http://bit.ly/jcCSUV  

TAKE NOTE: "The only poll that matters is on Election Day," Corwin spokesman Matthew Harakal told Roll Call. http://bit.ly/kMkAxP  

As Nikki Haley comes to Washington, Setti Warren declares and Bristol Palin finally gets her shot at the big-time, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

ANTICIPATION BUILDS - COUNTDOWN TO NEWT - Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will unveil his presidential campaign Wednesday, spokesman Rick Tyler revealed to the Twitterverse yesterday. Gingrich has to walk a tough line in this race: His biggest challenge will be figuring out how to keep serving up his trademark high-end red meat to the GOP base without marginalizing himself as a serious candidate. The fundamentals of Gingrich's support are mixed: The former Georgia lawmaker drew 6 percent nationally in a recent Gallup poll, tying Ron Paul. In a New York Times/CBS poll, Gingrich had solid favorability ratings - 42 percent positive, 20 percent negative - among Republican primary voters. With the broader electorate, he's got trouble: "Nearly a quarter of registered voters, 23 percent, said they had a favorable opinion of Mr. Gingrich. More, 37 percent, expressed an unfavorable view of him, while the rest (4 in 10) had no opinion about him." http://bit.ly/iGAYQJ  and http://nyti.ms/keTaBu  

STRAIGHT TALK FROM BOB LIVINGSTON - The almost-speaker tells USA Today: "Will [Gingrich] immediately unify everybody in the country? Probably not ... But I think that he's got a better understanding of some of the deeper issues that affect the country than most candidates do, and for that reason, I think it's a good idea that he's running." http://usat.ly/iSbGIi 

DANIELS WATCH - INCHING FORWARD - It's not much to go on, but Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said Monday he's moving closer to deciding on a possible presidential run. Asked whether he was nearer to making the call on 2012, Daniels told WISH-TV: "Yes." And that's all, according to the station: "[Daniels] declined to elaborate and said a final decision is still a 'few weeks' away ... Regarding his wife Cheri's speech to a GOP dinner Thursday, he said she would talk about life as first lady of Indiana. He suggested no more public appearances are scheduled for her outside of the State Fair." http://bit.ly/mGnhR4  

CHRISTIE WAVES HIM ON: The New Jersey governor talked up Daniels during an appearance on Philadelphia radio, calling the Hoosier "somebody who I have enormous respect for and would give real consideration to supporting." Christie continued to wave off chatter about his own prospects in 2012, telling WPHT's Chris Stigall: "You have to feel in your heart you want to be president more than anything else, and I am not there right now ... I think the days of a draft...I think those days are gone. I think the American people now want to see you out there pursuing it, running for it, making your case." http://bit.ly/lTmxMb  and http://bit.ly/kuj31Y  

RUSH DISSENTS ON DANIELS - The radio mega-talker opened fire in his Monday broadcast: "You see what's shaping up here in the media and with certain help from Republican insiders. Medicare, get rid of it. It's gonna destroy the party. Get it off the table. We can't go there, and we gotta get Mitch Daniels, somebody serious, the Republican field is a joke, can't have these conservatives running things ... And there's this phrase again: serious. That's the new gravitas. That's the new, 'He's an intellectual. He's a serious person.' It also means boring and moderate, and it does not mean conservative. Now I figured it out. Somebody who's conservative cannot simultaneously be serious, according to the new guidelines in Washington." http://bit.ly/kvPnwt  

IT'S WAR - REDSTATE VS. HUNTSMAN - It's the oldest political story in the book: Blogger meets candidate. Blogger attacks candidate. Candidate (or candidate's supporter) fires back. Blogger escalates with a flurry of posts and on-air radio blasts. How it started this time: RedState's Erick Erickson went after Jon Huntsman Monday, criticizing the Republican for simultaneously "serving as United States Ambassador to China [and] plotting to run against the president of the United States." The response: A Huntsman supporter pushed back, telling Ben Smith it's "[i]ronic that someone who suggested sending President Obama to the death panel is calling someone else disloyal." And that's when things heated up - consider: http://bit.ly/l9170W  and http://bit.ly/iTrI6R  and http://bit.ly/mqvc7z  and http://bit.ly/jnNGFT 

TODAY - OBAMA TO TEXAS - From the White House guidance: "[T]he President will travel to El Paso [and] deliver a speech at Chamizal National Memorial on the importance of fixing the broken immigration system for our nation's 21st century economic and security needs so that America can win the future ... In the afternoon, the President will travel to Austin ... In Austin, the President will deliver remarks at two DNC events." Popping on the right: "Texas Denied Major Disaster Declaration," via YouTube: http://bit.ly/ktGjY1  

S.C. COMES TO D.C. - HALEY AND THE CHAMBER - South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and a group of business association leaders will hold a press conference at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce this morning, decrying the National Labor Relations Board's complaint against Boeing for shifting jobs to the non-union-friendly Palmetto State. This is already becoming a check-the-box issue for 2012 candidates; Tim Pawlenty won a big round of applause in last Thursday's debate for slamming the NLRB. Joining Haley at the Chamber: South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander and former Michigan Gov. and Business Roundtable head John Engler, among others. 

COMING SOON - TEA TIME FOR NELSON: The Tea Party Express plans to issue its first Senate endorsement of the 2012 cycle tomorrow and the rogue conservative group has identified Nebraska as its intended target. CNN's Shannon Travis reports: "In [2010], the Tea Party Express endorsed Republicans Sharron Angle in Nevada and Joe Miller in Alaska - but both candidates lost their general elections ... Currently, several Republicans are interested in replacing Nelson in Nebraska. State Attorney General Jon Bruning, former senate candidate Pat Flynn and state Treasurer Don Stenberg have officially entered the race." Democrats will smile if the group spurns Bruning. http://bit.ly/mOyC3s  

THE SCOTT BROWN SEAT - WARREN IS IN - NOT ELIZABETH: Newton Mayor Setti Warren joined the race against GOP Sen. Scott Brown, vying with City Year founder Alan Khazei and former lieutenant governor candidate Bob Massie in the Democratic primary. The Boston Globe's Glen Johnson: "Warren said the race should reduce to a debate about party values. 'As a Democrat, I believe in the core values of creating opportunity for all Americans, protecting our most vulnerable,' Warren said ... Warren was elected mayor in November 2009, the first African-American popularly elected as mayor in the state ... His relatively brief, 16-month tenure has prompted some complaint from city residents who believe he should serve out his term before seeking higher office." http://bo.st/mK77Yu  More from Johnson on the 2012 playing field for Brown, here: http://bo.st/mAMbAv  

NOTED IN N.J. - MENENDEZ DRAWS A FOE: He probably won't be the only Republican in the race, but attorney Ian Linker is off and running, and on the attack against Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez. PolitickerNJ: "Linker said part of what propelled him were stories about Menendez looking at bailouts for banks." http://bit.ly/igZdWi  

DEMS' $10 MILLION NIGHTMARE: Wealthy Nevada attorney Byron Georgiou is rebuffing pressure from the Democratic establishment to step out of the state's Senate race - instead, he plans to spend a huge sum to compete in the primary against Rep. Shelley Berkley. VEGAS INC reports: "Georgiou, who sat on the US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission that delivered its report in January, has started hammering away on banks ... Georgiou has the money to tell his story to voters - he hopes to have $10 million in his campaign account by the end of the year - and the resume to prove his willingness to stand up to the establishment." http://bit.ly/mukGME  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Her personal life has been playing out in the media for several years, but this will be the first time she's opening up her real life, with her son and her friends the Massey brothers." - David McKillop, vice president of programming at A&E and BIO, on Bristol Palin's new reality show http://bit.ly/mS522R  

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