Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Branstad to fire Iowa starter's pistol - POLITICO/GW poll: Obama crushes top foes - Air war heats up in NY-26 - Union Leader blasts Romney - Mitt raising big in Vegas - NYPost: Trump decides today
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 16 May 2011 05:40:32 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked]) 

FIRST IN SCORE - BRANSTAD SAYS 'GO' - Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad will call on the Republican presidential field today to pick up the pace of their campaigns in the state, using his weekly news conference to fire a starter's pistol on the 2012 caucus race. With Mike Huckabee's decision not to run for president, the campaign for Iowa is now wide open. And Branstad will issue "a full-throated appeal for candidates to campaign in Iowa and begin laying down their markers now," according to Branstad spokesman Tim Albrecht. The timing is good: Newt Gingrich is already scheduled to storm through Iowa this week and Mitt Romney will make his first visit of the year on May 27. 

MORE - WHY NOW? Put simply, Iowa's caucuses are under attack. Branstad has to contend with concern among GOP campaigns that the state will only vote for candidates who cater to hard-core social conservative activists. Romney has treaded lightly in Iowa so far and at least one candidate, Jon Huntsman, sounds like he may skip it entirely. Former New Hampshire GOP Chairman Fergus Cullen encouraged candidates to stay away from the caucuses in a Des Moines Register op-ed this weekend, arguing that Iowa Republicans "have marginalized themselves to the point where competing in Iowa has become optional." 

AND - THE GOV'S CASE: Branstad himself is a kind of counterpoint to that anti-Iowa argument, having defeated Christian activist Bob Vander Plaats in last year's gubernatorial primary. This morning, the fifth-term governor will push back on his state's critics, according to Albrecht: "Branstad has stated repeatedly that Mike Huckabee had been the front-runner in his state, and this morning he will send a clear message to current and would-be 2012 candidates: Iowa is a full-spectrum state, and everyone - including evangelicals - wants someone who will articulate a message of job creation and slashing the federal debt. The person who best exhibits those leadership qualities will do well in Iowa, and they should build a campaign there to prove it, he'll say." 

2012 TALKER - "President Obama polls well amid bad omens" - Andy Barr on the new POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll: "Despite widespread disapproval of Barack Obama's handling of the economy, more than half of Americans approve of the president and are open to reelecting him ... Fifty-two percent of those surveyed approve of Obama's handling of his job, up 7 percentage points from the most recent Battleground Poll, conducted in October. Additionally, 72 percent approve of Obama personally ... The president stacks up well against the two GOP contenders polled in a match-up with him - former Govs. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. Asked whom they would vote for if the election was held today, 51 percent would 'definitely" or 'probably' choose the president, while 38 percent chose Romney. Against Pawlenty, Obama led 50 percent to 36 percent." Full story: http://politi.co/l9ZWvh  ; and more results: http://politi.co/bYn0Ah  ; live chat with pollsters Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas here at 10 a.m.: http://politi.co/kIwzCf  

As Donald Trump nears a decision, David Williams prepares for the general and Mayor Emanuel becomes official, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

5 QUESTIONS FOR 2012 - One more name has been scratched off the Republican presidential roster. Here are our biggest questions for the rest of the field in the week ahead: 

(1) With Mitch Daniels running out of time to make his decision, will any GOP brass go beyond praising him as a potential candidate and flat-out beg him to run? 

(2) Will Newt Gingrich's rebuke of the Paul Ryan budget make him a trendsetter or an outlier in the GOP field? 

(3) Speaking of Ryan - is he still happy right where he is, and does he still think he's winning? 

(4) Will Mitt Romney ever comment publicly on Huckabee opting out of 2012? 

(5) Will any serious 2012 candidate get involved in the special election for New York's 26th District? 

THE NEW YORK SPECIAL - T-MINUS 8 DAYS - POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt scoops: "As the chaotic three-way election in New York's 26th District hurtles toward the finish line, the list of independent groups getting involved just keeps getting longer. The GOP-boosting American Action Network is launching its first offensive of the 2012 cycle, going into the New York race with an ad blitz targeting older voters and priced in the low six figures. The conservative group will introduce an online ad campaign and drop three pieces of mail, each ripping Tea Party candidate Jack Davis. And the Democratic group House Majority PAC announced Friday that it will attack Republican Jane Corwin on broadcast and cable television this week for supporting the Paul Ryan Budget." 

MORE FROM THE HOUSE CAMPAIGN - SNEAK PEEK - The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is sending a new round of robocalls into 20 GOP-held House districts, attacking Republicans for trying to "[end] Medicare to pay for subsidies for Big Oil ... or tax breaks for the ultra rich." But wait - there's more: "The DCCC is launching its enhanced Medicare Action Center, DontEndMedicare.com, with new signs for protests (with QR barcodes that direct people to the Action Center), a virtual phone bank, and tools to call or write your Representative section." 

SHOTS FIRED IN NEW HAMPSHIRE - The Union Leader made what editorial page editor Drew Cline dubbed its "first foray into 2012" this weekend, slamming Mitt Romney over health care and accusing him of favoring the rights of states over the rights of individuals. From the paper: "The sticking point is the individual mandate. Both Romneycare and Obamacare force individuals to buy health insurance.... Obama thinks Washington should do that, and Romney thinks states may, and in some cases should ... In pursuit of the 'liberty' to collectively finance charity health care, states may negate the liberty of the individual. We suspect that most Republicans would define states' rights very differently." http://bit.ly/kOWqwl  and http://bit.ly/lU4jXd   

TODAY - MITT GOES WEST - Supporters of the former Massachusetts governor are gathering in Las Vegas for a fundraising call-a-thon that's expected to net a seven-figure haul. The Center for Public Integrity's Peter Stone previews: "Hundreds of fundraisers have signed up for the money harvest in Vegas. The fundraising marathon, which will take place at the Las Vegas Convention Center, is shooting to corral between $2 million and $3 million, according to Romney fundraisers ... The day's fundraising begins at 5:30 a.m. Pacific time to hit up East Coast donors early ... Among those expected to be on hand are: John Rood, the Florida chairman for Romney and an ambassador to the Bahamas under George W. Bush; John Rakolta Jr., a Detroit construction magnate; Chris Collins, a Massachusetts developer; Woody Johnson, the owner of the New York Jets; and Ron Kaufman, the chairman of Dutko Worldwide lobbying group." http://yhoo.it/mqafoF  

HUCK WATCH - NO ENDORSEMENT NOW - The 2012 prospect-turned-weekend TV impresario won't throw his support to anyone else in the GOP field just yet. Asked on "Fox News Sunday" if he would make an endorsement in the race, Huckabee answered: "Not immediately ... There may be a point when I endorse, but right now, I'll see how the race unfolds and listen carefully." And on Romney: "There's been a lot of talk about Mitt Romney and me, and we don't socialize together, we're not close in personal ways ... Whether he is my first choice, I will support him if he is our nominee, and he very well may be." http://politi.co/ilEAd4  

ANNOUNCEMENT TIME FOR TRUMP? The "Celebrity Apprentice" star has run out of time to decide whether his heart is with his reality show or his country, the New York Post reports: "Trump plans to announce today whether he'll fire himself from 'Celebrity Apprentice,' a source told The Post last night. The billionaire businessman, who has been mulling a run for the White House, has been trying to decide whether to trade his TV show for politics. He is scheduled to meet with NBC's bosses early this morning to give them his final decision -- just hours before they are supposed to present their plans for the new fall season to advertisers." http://nyp.st/ioqaQx  

GEORGE WILL CALLS 2012 - The syndicated scribe predicted on ABC's "This Week": "People are complaining this is not off to a brisk start. I think that's wrong. I think we know with reasonable certainty that standing up there on the West front of the Capitol on Jan. 20, 2013 will be one of three people: Obama, Pawlenty and Daniels." http://bit.ly/klZzc0  

LIFE AS THE INCUMBENT - From the White House guidance: "In the morning, the President will travel to Memphis, Tennessee [and] meet with families impacted by the flooding, state and local officials, first responders and volunteers ... In the afternoon, the President will deliver the commencement address at Booker T. Washington High School... In the evening, the President will deliver remarks at two DNC events in Washington, DC." And the VP: "In the morning, the Vice President and Dr. Jill Biden will travel to Chicago, Illinois. At 10:30 AM CT, they will attend the inauguration of Mayor Rahm Emanuel." 

ELECTION EVE - IN KENTUCKY: Kentucky Republicans go to the polls tomorrow to choose a challenger for Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear. The AP confirms that state Senate President David Williams looks like the safe bet to win the primary: "With more than $1.2 million raised for his race, Williams is the only one of the Republicans who had a campaign budget large enough to cover television advertising. But he said Sunday he was taking nothing for granted in his race against [Phil] Moffett, a tea party candidate, and [Bobbie] Holsclaw, a proven vote-getter in Louisville, home to about a fourth of the state's residents. 'I'm more than cautiously optimistic,' Williams said." http://bit.ly/jAzc7A  

CALIFORNIA BULLETIN - "Class divide in war for Jane Harman's seat" - POLITICO's James Hohmann: "Washington has largely ignored the special election here Tuesday, focusing instead on a competitive House race across the country in New York. But the winner of California's 36th District contest could reveal who's leading the fight for the soul of the Democratic Party heading into the 2012 cycle. Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn is an urban Democrat with strong labor backing. She will square off against Secretary of State Debra Bowen, a progressive candidate supported by environmentalists." Read on: http://politi.co/kPsYik  

THE HERB KOHL SEAT - RYAN'S CALL - Paul Ryan plans to announce this week whether he'll run for Wisconsin's open Senate seat, he told CNN Sunday. But why gamble on a statewide race when your party already wants you to run for president? The Los Angeles Times reports that sources "close to Ryan ... have said his real ambition is to chair the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee down the road - and that would mean staying in the House ... On the GOP side, former U.S. Rep. Mark Neumann, state Atty. Gen. J.B. Van Hollen and two brothers: state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald. On the Democratic side, House members Tammy Baldwin and Ron Kind and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett are among those drawing early attention." http://lat.ms/lMTyFB  

AND - WAITING ON LINGLE - Hawaii politicos may have to wait until August to learn whether former Gov. Linda Lingle will run for Senate. Lingle is probably the only Republican who would have a shadow of a chance in the race, and the Star Advertiser reports she's still undecided: "Lingle said the possibility Republicans could capture the Senate after the 2012 elections should be an incentive for voters to think about political balance to U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii, and the other Democrats in the state's congressional delegation." http://bit.ly/mJ1EfF  ... Polling from the Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now shows Lingle would start as an underdog: http://bit.ly/kc9CAs  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We won't allow it in South Carolina ... The second a political consultant tries to play dirty tricks, it will backfire and it will hurt that candidate." - South Carolina Gov. and all-around optimist Nikki Haley http://abcn.ws/jmvUD7  

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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