Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Pawlenty launching with 'Time for Truth' theme - Gillespie: GOP field is set - Obama powers Dems' April fundraising - POLITICO/St. Petersburg Times team up - Hochul leads NY-26 polls - DSCC hammers Ryan plan
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 23 May 2011 05:54:20 -0400 (EDT)

By Alexander Burns (@aburnspolitico, [email-masked])  

HOURS AWAY - PAWLENTY TIME - Tim Pawlenty will formally announce his campaign for president today in Iowa, wielding this new slogan for his launch week: "Time for Truth." The former Minnesota governor previewed his kickoff in an online video, in which he sought to claim the straight-talk mantle in the 2012 primary field. "The truth is, our country's in big trouble," Pawlenty says in the message. "We have far too much debt, too much government spending and too few jobs. We need a president who understands that our problems are deep and has the courage to face them. President Obama doesn't. I do." With Mitch Daniels out of the race and the other Republican contenders struggling to find their own messages, there's no obvious truth-telling, tough-love, take-your-medicine candidate in the field. That's a big opening for somebody (Pawlenty?) to jump through. Watch the full video here: http://bit.ly/iWEvXT  

RAISING THE CURTAIN - "Tim Pawlenty's moment" - POLITICO's Smith and Martin: "Pawlenty's camp believes that he is the candidate to whom Daniels' backers will mostly likely default. 'I think Tim Pawlenty would be benefited more than others,' said former Minnesota Rep. Vin Weber, who backs Pawlenty. 'It benefits him because they're in the same ideological and geographical space.' Pawlenty has already, aides said, been making regular calls to Daniels' would-be financial and political supporters, key among them Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour. His central challenge for the year's second quarter is to raise for the three-month period something in the ballpark of the $10 million Romney raised in a day. But a race paralyzed by fantasy candidates like Daniels had given underwhelmed donors a good excuse to keep their wallets closed." http://politi.co/kRZvv5  

BUT NOW - IS THE FIELD SET? Some high-powered Republicans are starting to say it is, with former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie predicting: "The field is largely now settled, and Republican activists and donors will begin increasingly choosing between those who are declared." Still, Republicans continue to look toward Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Rick Perry and - most of all - Chris Christie as possible surprise entrants. All four say they won't run, but there are degrees of saying no. Let's go to the videotape ... 

- JEB BUSH: "While I am flattered by everyone's encouragement, my decision has not changed ... I will not be a candidate for president in 2012.' 

- PAUL RYAN: "I'm not running for president, I'm not planning on running for president ... My plan is to be a good chairman of the House Budget Committee and fight for the fiscal sanity of this nation." 

- RICK PERRY SPOKESMAN MARK MINER: "The governor's position hasn't changed ... He has no intention to run for president and is focused on the current legislative session." 

- CHRIS CHRISTIE ADVISER MIKE DUHAIME (asked if the governor is 100 percent not running): "Correct." http://politi.co/kxHuPZ  and http://nyti.ms/ktqgMS  

As Fox stumps Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman takes a lunch appointment and Tommy Thompson stumbles out of the gate, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign. 

5 QUESTIONS FOR 2012 - We're one day away from the first major bellwether election of the 2012 cycle. We're also short one more Republican candidate than we were on Friday. Here are our five questions for the post-Mitch Daniels week: 

(1) Does anyone in Republican leadership really believe that Medicare is not driving NY-26? 

(2) Have any Democrats noticed that none of their national politicians have campaigned there? 

(3) Does anyone in Washington want Rick Perry to run for president (Texans and reporters not included)? 

(4) When will Jon Huntsman sit for an interview with Fox News? 

(5) Why won't Newt Gingrich say what he and Callista bought at Tiffany's? 

2012 SIREN - POLITICO, ST. PETE TIMES TEAM UP - POLITICO and the St. Petersburg Times are joining forces to cover the 2012 convention in Tampa, the two papers announced Sunday. The Times: "The Times and POLITICO will begin immediately sharing content both in print and online to offer their readers added insight into the campaign trail. At the convention, they'll combine reporting efforts to write in-depth enterprise stories related to the August 2012 event. In addition, the Times and POLITICO plan to co-produce daily newsmaker events in the Tampa Bay area." POLITICO executive editor Jim VandeHei: "This will allow both organizations to play to their core strengths - POLITICO's national political coverage and the St. Petersburg Times's dominance of state and local politics - to provide readers a compelling way to navigate and understand the GOP convention." http://bit.ly/mRsmpR  and http://politi.co/kL63Q2  

DEMS WIN APRIL - THANKS TO OBAMA: The three Democratic federal campaign committees outraised their Republican counterparts by nearly $6 million last month, taking in $19.2 million to the GOP's $13.5 million. That advantage comes entirely thanks to $7 million raised for the DNC through a joint fundraising committee with President Barack Obama's reelection campaign. Absent that, Republicans had a decent month: The NRSC raised $3.4 million to the DSCC's $2.8 million and the two House committees tied at $4 million each. Democrats have $26.3 million in the bank and $27 million in debt, compared with $16 million on hand and $27.4 million in debt for the GOP. 

HOCHUL'S MAGIC NUMBER - 42 PERCENT? That's the level of support clocked by Democratic congressional candidate Kathy Hochul in the two most recent polls out of New York's 26th District. Siena College put Hochul, the Erie County Clerk, at 42 percent, versus 38 percent for Republican Assemblywoman Jane Corwin and 12 percent for cantankerous, self-funding independent Jack Davis. PPP had Hochul at 42, Corwin at 36 and Davis at 13. Siena pollster Don Levy: "While Corwin picked up support among Republicans and held or picked up a couple of points among independents and in every region of the district, Hochul gained fourteen points with Democrats and eighteen points among independents." http://bit.ly/lFBjHT  and http://bit.ly/kFupfy  

LIVE FROM CLARENCE - James Hohmann, POLITICO's man on the ground, reports: "Corwin's campaign said it knocked on 18,000 doors in New York's sprawling 26th District this weekend. By Sunday evening, they were on track to make more than 58,000 weekend calls. Hochul's campaign intimated that their efforts reached more people - though they declined to share metrics ... At 10 p.m. Sunday, nearly two dozen workers remained at the headquarters of both campaigns." http://politi.co/lcC2aT  

MEDICARE WARS - NOT JUST FOR THE HOUSE ANYMORE - The Senate is poised to vote on the Ryan budget this week, putting lawmakers on the record on the controversial Medicare provisions at the forefront of the NY-26 ad wars. Coming today from the DSCC: "Republican Senators to Walk the Plank on GOP Budget" - "This week the Senate is expected to vote on the Republican plan to eliminate Medicare and if we learned anything from last week it's that opposition to the plan will not be tolerated by the GOP faithful ... 'Republicans have made it crystal clear that opposition to the Republican budget plan to eliminate Medicare will not be tolerated by the party faithful,' said Matt Canter, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. 'This puts tremendous pressure on Scott Brown, Dick Lugar, Olympia Snowe, and Dean Heller.'" 

TEA PARTY TALKER - "GOP push for presidential pick divisive" - AP's Tom Beaumont: "Leading Republicans are trying to entice a more established candidate to jump into the 2012 presidential race, aggravating tensions between tea partyers and the GOP's traditional business wing, a deep-pocketed source of financial support. The behind-the-scenes efforts have been taken as a snub by some tea party organizers who favor the anti-establishment messages of Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, businessman Herman Cain and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who are in the race or are considering it. New contenders could undermine their chances for donations. 'It's extremely upsetting to hear that the establishment is courting their own candidate when Michele Bachmann, the gold standard, has been in the fight, bucking the establishment that got us in this mess,' said Katrina Pierson, a Dallas tea party leader." More: http://bit.ly/kEl8NF  

REMEMBER THIS GUY? Mitch Daniels's 2012 hopes have come to an end, but his busy schedule of talking about the national debt goes on. He's due in Washington on Wednesday for the Peter G. Peterson Foundation's 2011 Fiscal Summit. Also on the guest list are Bill Clinton, Paul Ryan and Alan Simpson. http://bit.ly/mFXww8  

MEANWHILE, TEAM DANIELS WAITS - Jmart and your Morning Score correspondent: "A group of top Daniels supporters predicted Sunday - as they were still reeling from their candidate's announcement - that there would be no mass migration to another 2012 contender. Instead, many will keep their political and financial might in reserve, waiting for one of the current candidates to gain momentum - or for a new champion to show up and transform the race. [Don] Cogman, one of eight Daniels advisers who met with the governor about a possible presidential run in Scottsdale, Ariz., last year, told POLITICO he doesn't plan to pick another candidate: 'For me, it was very personal with Mitch; and, I believe the major issue we face as a country was his issue - the debt and size of government.' ... One Daniels friend even suggested that the governor might be persuaded to reconsider his decision if his wife and daughters warm up to the idea of a campaign. 'This isn't over yet," said the friend. "I don't think some people will take 'no' for an answer.'" http://politi.co/iwFr5E  

THE MAINE THING IS TO KEEP THE MAINE THING THE MAINE THING: Jon Huntsman will make the trek to Kennebunkport today to kiss the ring of former President George H. W. Bush. The Page had the news first: "41 has received the GOP candidates who have asked for a courtesy meeting so far. Pawlenty went by the Houston office a few weeks ago. Huntsman wasn't back from China in time to do the meeting there as well." Huntsman is also due for a courtesy call in Texas, POLITICO's Kasie Hunt reported: "Huntsman will head to Texas next week for lunch with Gov. Rick Perry, a Huntsman aide told reporters Sunday. Huntsman and his wife, Mary Kaye, will dine with the governor and his wife, Anita Perry, on June 2." http://ti.me/iMlFkc  and http://politi.co/jCNuSB  

THOMPSON FLOPS: Former Wisconsin Gov. and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson lost a Senate straw poll this weekend at the state party's annual convention, coming in second to state legislator Ted Kanavas. The Weekly Standard: "Thompson, who's contemplating running for Senate in Wisconsin to replace the retiring Herb Kohl, only got 20 percent of the vote ... By contrast, when Scott Walker was contemplating running for governor in 2009 he won 93.4 percent of the vote in the straw poll at the state convention." http://bit.ly/mFrgs2  

DOWN BALLOT - IN MINNESOTA: The Minnesota legislature voted over the weekend to put a constitutional ban on gay marriage on the ballot in 2012. Back in 2004, it was ballot propositions like this one that helped drive conservatives to the polls for George W. Bush. Minnesota Public Radio: "Minnesota law already prohibits same-sex marriage, but supporters of the amendment say putting the language in the constitution would prevent a judge from overturning the law ... Constitutional amendments only require a majority vote in the Legislature, and aren't subject to a gubernatorial veto. Both sides say they plan to launch efforts to sway voters." http://bit.ly/kmkt1W  

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "The right of return? [pause] The right of return?" - Herman Cain, having a deer-in-the-headlights moment on Israel policy with Fox News's Chris Wallace http://bit.ly/j5xM5D  

Go to Morning Score Now >> http://www.politico.com/morningscore

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