Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Paul goes up with major Iowa, N.H. ad blitz – His message: 'One candidate has always been true' – MavPAC goes national – Palin: 'Reload' on debt limit – Candidates rebuff Family Leader – Medicare ad hits Heller
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2011 03:59:59 -0600

By Alexander Burns (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ) and James Hohmann (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] )

2012 SIREN -- PAUL GOES BIG - Texas Rep. Ron Paul is launching his first television ads of the 2012 campaign, going on the air in Iowa and New Hampshire with a powerful spot on his opposition to raising the debt ceiling. The commercial opens like a movie preview, complete with the notice that it's been "approved for all audiences." Then it takes viewers back to the early years of Paul's career, warning about the consequences of a deal on the debt. From the script: "In the '80s, they did it to Reagan," the narrator says. "A debt ceiling compromise: Democrats promising spending cuts and delivering only tax hikes. The '90s brought more compromises." The commercial forecasts that this summer,
 "the next chapter will be written." "We know where they stand," the script continues, showing images of President Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. "But will our party leaders repeat the mistakes of the past? Will they choose compromise or conviction?"

MORE - THE REAL DEAL - The commercial starts tomorrow, running with six figures behind it in both Iowa and New Hampshire. That makes it the biggest television buy of the 2012 campaign from any candidate and the first major TV ad to air in New Hampshire. It's a high-value spot produced by Paul's newly-hired ad man, GOP media consultant Jon Downs. The ad coincides with a big grassroots push from the Paul campaign to rally opposition to raising the debt ceiling. It closes by touting Paul's unswerving small-government record: "One candidate has always been true. Ron Paul: Cut spending, balance the budget, no deals. Standing up to the Washington machine, guided by principle. Restore America
 now." Read more and watch the ad here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e1af4a4912ed747481351e7b2935b0c16c25aaf85a96e67f3f7122bc5a32f538 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e1af4a4912ed747481351e7b2935b0c16c25aaf85a96e67f3f7122bc5a32f538 

BREAKING OUT OF TEXAS - JMART REPORTS: "Maverick PAC, the Texas-based group of young Republican donors, is going national. The organization that sprang up during President George W. Bush's re-election has established a presence in California, Florida, Washington, D.C. and also has its eye on Illinois and the interior west, according to co-chairman George P. Bush. They're also going to hire a full-time executive director this year as part of an effort to broaden their reach in the run-up to 2012, Bush said. MavPac, as it's now known, allows Republicans in their 20s and 30s to participate in the fundraising process by holding low-dollar events that young professionals can afford ...

THE GOAL: "'Our idea is to offer a lower price point to gain the same type of access to elected officials as you would if you were a high-rolling bundler,' Bush explained. The group has already had events this year in Washington, California and Miami and is planning one in New York."

As Sarah Palin checks her calendar, Chuck Grassley takes a call and Tammy Baldwin readies for launch, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

STATE OF PLAY IN D.C. - ON THE BRINK OF DEBT - The deadline for a debt deal is drawing closer, Moody's is threatening to downgrade America's credit rating and the bad blood between negotiators in Washington is growing. Tax reform is reportedly still on the table, while Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's proposal to give the president power for a quick, short-term fix on the debt limit hasn't been ruled out by Democrats. As McConnell noted, the implications for 2012 are profound. POLITICO's David Rogers: "A blow-up between Obama and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor at the end of Wednesday's White House negotiating session captured the building tension ... Watching silently was
 McConnell, who had used a conservative radio interview earlier in the day to bluntly warn his party it was setting itself up for a fall at the polls in 2012. 'I refuse to help Barack Obama get reelected by marching Republicans into a position where we have co-ownership of a bad economy,' McConnell told his host, Laura Ingraham."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e1af4a4912ed7474536185f13b3217242be269eccba89530d4a0eaa1b60904fa 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e1af4a4912ed7474536185f13b3217242be269eccba89530d4a0eaa1b60904fa 

PALIN TAKES THE SAFETY OFF - 'RELOAD' - The former Alaska governor returned to one of her most incendiary catch phrases in an interview with Sean Hannity last night, declaring that the GOP shouldn't "retreat" in the debt ceiling fight. "It's the time to reload," Palin said, reviving imagery that she largely discarded after the shooting in Tucson earlier this year. She also outlined her timetable for deciding on a 2012 run: "You know, August and September, you do have to start laying out a plan if you are to be one to throw your hat in the ring, so that's basically the timeframe."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e1af4a4912ed747443c57f1d66f7b4424cf684ec862b481b4973482797dc584e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e1af4a4912ed747443c57f1d66f7b4424cf684ec862b481b4973482797dc584e and
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb323a35ac6484aa848b5ef843f819a57ad5049c2ef7d93ed614c 
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AMERICANS UNITED FOR CHANGE HITS HELLER: The liberal group is spending $6,000 to air an ad in Reno starting Friday that attacks Nevada Sen. Dean Heller for voting to support Paul Ryan's budget plan twice - first in the House and then again after being appointed to the Senate. The 30-second spot is pegged on the upcoming special House election to replace Heller. "Would those hoping to replace Heller in Congress also vote to end Medicare?" the ad asks. Watch:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb32351bad2894e1c985fa52b0444ba2801d92bcf10cc545bdfba 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb32351bad2894e1c985fa52b0444ba2801d92bcf10cc545bdfba 

WHAT THE CANDIDATES ARE UP TO - Mitt Romney has a busy day in New Hampshire: He tours the Redhook Ale Brewery in Portsmouth at 11:30 a.m., visits RSA Realty in Rochester at 1:30 p.m. and hosts a town hall meeting in Derry at 5 p.m. Rudy Giuliani, still flirting with a potential bid, is also visiting the Granite State. The former New York City mayor speaks to the Seacoast Republican Women's luncheon at noon and attends a 6 p.m. gun-owners forum at the Manchester Harley-Davidson dealer. Herman Cain will speak at a rally on the steps of the Murfreesboro Courthouse in Tennessee ... Tim Pawlenty isn't in N.H. today, but he did pick up support from Mitt Romney's former steering committee chairman
 there:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb323c5b03cbd42b066306dcd8793ca43ad39e31bdcf47dfa315b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb323c5b03cbd42b066306dcd8793ca43ad39e31bdcf47dfa315b 

THE 1994 SCORE - DEM AD SLAMS BAIN - On the POLITICO homepage, one of your Morning Score correspondents uncovers a "tough Democratic ad that was teed up for use against Romney in his 1994 Senate campaign in Massachusetts ... The commercial - produced for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee by the firm Doak, Shrum, Harris, Carrier, Devine - highlights Romney's role in turning around Bain & Co. at a moment of financial distress. 'The way the company was rescued was with a federal bailout of $10 million,' the ad says. 'The rest of us had to absorb the loss' ... The facts of the Bain & Co. turnaround are a little more complicated, but a Boston Globe report from 1994 confirms that Bain
 saw several million dollars in loans forgiven by the FDIC ... Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul defended the candidate's record in the private sector and said that at Bain & Co., Romney 'helped lead a successful turnaround. At Bain Capital, he helped launch and guide a private equity and financial services firm.'" See the Dems' 1994 ads and read more on Romney and Bain:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb3232c7e08094907a9991b66921adbeb899b0bf9028fba6ed246 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb3232c7e08094907a9991b66921adbeb899b0bf9028fba6ed246 

NOTED IN IOWA - PERRY PHONES GRASSLEY - Iowa's Republican senator fielded a call this week from Rick Perry, and told reporters yesterday he's advised the Texas governor: "If he's going to run, he'd better run in Iowa and he'd better cover a lot of territory ... I reminded him that Iowa made two previous presidents - at least two presidents - Obama and Carter." Grassley also shared a warm take on the rise of Michele Bachmann, the Register reports: "He said 'it's refreshing to a lot of Iowans to have somebody who is so direct and plain-spoken, kind of like a breath of fresh air.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb323e72712e28bf6ebbc15dfc28299a3ee8cd8396552c8e371d4 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb323e72712e28bf6ebbc15dfc28299a3ee8cd8396552c8e371d4 

MASON-DIXON CONFIRMS THE TREND: The evidence keeps mounting for Bachmann's solid position in Iowa. The pollster Mason-Dixon released new numbers showing her taking a third of the vote, drawing 32 percent to Mitt Romney's 29 percent. The closest runner-up was Tim Pawlenty, in third place (!) with 7 percent. The Mason-Dixon survey follows several other polls showing Bachmann tied or narrowly ahead of Romney.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb3234f273a8cab3ebba8d3e588e4d575972510fba2e5c82b8804 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb3234f273a8cab3ebba8d3e588e4d575972510fba2e5c82b8804 

ANOTHER IOWA TREND - NIXING THE PLEDGE: A growing group of Republican presidential candidates has now declined to sign the Family Leader's sweeping social conservative pledge, and it's possible the final list of signatories may only include Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum. Not signing the pledge, at least in its current form: Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, Gary Johnson and Ron Paul. There are plenty of reasons for candidates to be wary of the document, from its reference to slavery in the preamble to its provisions declaring war on pornography and vowing to overhaul divorce laws. Cain announced his non-participation in a statement last night: "I believe my stated
 position encompasses their values without the need to sign the pledge."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb323d283fda87daaaa4717b8675259c3967f0eacc633110b38c5 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb323d283fda87daaaa4717b8675259c3967f0eacc633110b38c5 

VP TALKER - NEVER TOO SOON - Indiana first lady Cheri Daniels gave a thumbs down to her husband's potential presidential campaign, but in an interview with Indianapolis Woman magazine she sounded open to another role for Mitch Daniels in federal office. Said the first lady: "Mitch has always had a big job ... He commuted between Washington and Indianapolis when he worked for President Bush. Definitely I would have more flexibility to go back and forth now should something (of that nature) be in his future."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb323ce33bc009b90b30a9b9495708035ec5933c338d8964a2066 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb323ce33bc009b90b30a9b9495708035ec5933c338d8964a2066 

MINNESOTA SHUTDOWN, DAY 14 - ON THE ROAD AGAIN - Yesterday, we told you about liquor sales drying up and Coors being pulled off the shelves in the Minnesota budget crisis. Now, the Star Tribune reports that fishermen who cannot buy a license due to the shutdown can still be fined for not having one: "Some resort owners -- desperate to retain customers -- have been collecting license money from their nonresident guests and giving them receipts to carry in lieu of a fishing license, saying they will buy licenses for them after the shutdown ends." There's still no sign of progress in St. Paul toward ending the shutdown. Gov. Mark Dayton speaks about the budget this morning at the University of
 Minnesota's Hubert H. Humphrey School, in a discussion moderated by the political scientist Larry Jacobs.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb3233af3e3b71a4e929b672b48fc78b7e98b86b639fdd9589d66 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb3233af3e3b71a4e929b672b48fc78b7e98b86b639fdd9589d66 

POLL OF THE DAY - HUNTSMAN WEAK AT HOME - So much for being a favorite son. Public Policy Polling released yesterday re-confirmed that Mitt Romney would easily defeat Jon Huntsman in Utah, beating him 82 percent to 14 percent in a head to head. There's more: by a narrow margin, Republicans view the polarizing Sarah Palin more favorably than Huntsman. The Democratic pollster found Palin's favorability was at 47 percent and her unfavorability was at 42 percent. Their former governor was at 43 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable with his own party. Crosstabs here:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb32375ffd87e53f62ddb60b5616ec399e04a9958dc2b0ab876b8 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=41c8f67014eeb32375ffd87e53f62ddb60b5616ec399e04a9958dc2b0ab876b8 .

THE HOUSE LANDSCAPE - CRYSTAL BALL SAYS GOP SOLID - UVA's Center for Politics reads into the redistricting tea leaves this morning to conclude that Republicans are in good shape to hold the House, though analyst Kyle Kondik suggests the GOP may only net a four-seat gain through the redrawing of the congressional map. Kondik writes, for Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: "That small Republican gain may end up being canceled out by Democratic redistricting success in other places, such as Illinois (certainly), California (probably) and Florida (maybe) ... History is not in the Democrats' favor: In 16 post-World War II presidential elections, the party of the winning presidential party has picked up
 an average of only about 13 House seats...So at this very early stage, the Crystal Ball would place a decent-sized bet on the Republicans to retain the lower chamber of Congress ... [W]e are not yet ready to write off Democratic chances."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=490fad5317dec571552bad2154c07e0d1d2d48b0119780d1e11c953d8b8912d9 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=490fad5317dec571552bad2154c07e0d1d2d48b0119780d1e11c953d8b8912d9 

BALDWIN HINTS - UN-SUBTLY - Wisconsin Rep. Tammy Baldwin has indicated that she's seriously considering a run for retiring Sen. Herb Kohl's seat in 2012, and the most obvious hint came in the announcement of her second quarter numbers. POLITICO's David Catanese: "While she hasn't formally declared, Rep. Tammy Baldwin's own press release described her as a 'likely U.S. Senate candidate.' She raised $502,485 for the quarter and has $1.1 million to spend for her likely bid."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=490fad5317dec57138bad3be2cd2395ed77ba0a9183dd08ebcd9de3ed1beac79 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=490fad5317dec57138bad3be2cd2395ed77ba0a9183dd08ebcd9de3ed1beac79 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It was God telling me to watch my language.... Everyone thought it was funny but me." - New Jersey Senate President Steve Sweeney, on almost being struck by lightning
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=490fad5317dec571236139d68a2aac02e42a37bfd067871525203a27f1e04604 
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