Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Obama disapproval at 61% among IA independents-Previewing tonight's debate-Post-Wisconsin SEIU ad campaign pivots to jobs-Romney bragged about tax hikes to S&P-Palin to Iowa-Tancredo rips Perry on immigration
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2011 03:45:05 -0600

By James Hohmann (
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[email-masked] )

FIGHT NIGHT - DEBATE PREVIEW: Watch tonight for attacks on both Mitt Romney (the national frontrunner) and Michele Bachmann (the Iowa frontrunner), as the other candidates desperate to stay viable past Saturday strive to get noticed. Eight Republicans will be on stage in Iowa, the first time they've met in two months. It's Jon Huntsman's first debate since declaring his candidacy. "The polite phase of the 2012 campaign is about to come to an end," Alex Burns and Maggie Haberman write in a curtain-raiser. It airs live at 9 p.m. ET on Fox News.
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SNEAK PEEK - NEW IOWA POLL SHOWS OBAMA IN TROUBLE: A poll of Iowa voters that's coming out later today shows trouble for President Obama in a state that could be a real battleground next year. Among independents, 32 percent approve and 61 percent disapprove of Obama's job performance. The survey, commissioned by the conservative American Action Network and conducted by the respected Tarrance Group, found a striking intensity of anti-Obama sentiment: 46 percent of voters overall said they feel strongly that Obama is not doing a good job. That is higher than his 43 percent overall approval number. Seniors, traditionally an important base for Democrats in Iowa (unlike other places), split
 48-47 for the president on the approval question. The economy is a huge concern: Only 13 percent say the economy is in a recovery and 50 percent say the country is on the wrong track.

LABOR REGROUPS-SEIU LAUNCHES MASSIVE POST-WISCONSIN AD CAMPAIGN: Announcing a 7-figure ad campaign today, the Service Employees International Union will hit Republicans for caring more about the rich than the poor and the unemployed. Ads will run in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and Virginia, with a heavy emphasis placed on African-American and Latino media outlets. The powerful union wants to contrast the GOP's defense of tax breaks for the wealthy against high unemployment rates for minorities, part of a push to pull the conversation back toward job creation. "Rather than turning their attention to the jobs crisis, Republican leaders are narrowly and exclusively focused on
 the wealthiest 1% of Americans," Brandon Davis, the SEIU's National Political Director says in a statement. The campaign includes not just broadcast and cable television buys, but also radio, direct mail and online advertising.

***As the left's push to recall Walker goes on, Tancredo hates on Perry and the Nevada Senate field clears, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

2012 TALKER - ROMNEY PITCHED TAX HIKES TO S&P: "Mitt Romney lobbied the credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's in 2004 to raise his state's credit rating in part because Massachusetts had raised taxes during an economic downturn two years earlier," POLITICO's Ben Smith reports. We told you Monday about Romney using the credit upgrade to create another contrast with President Obama on the economic stewardship issue. Ben put a freedom of information request into the Bay State's Executive Office of Administration and Finance to get the 50-page, Nov. 2004 presentation that the then-governor's administration made to S&P, which "made the case...that his state was creditworthy because of both
 spending cuts - the current preferred GOP method - and new revenues, including fees he imposed and tax 'loopholes' he closed. The presentation also prominently cited a controversial set of tax increases in the summer of 2002, which Romney, then a candidate, had opposed."
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ROMNEY'S STEALTH CAMPAIGN - MITT LOOKS QUIETLY FOR STRAW POLL VOTES: The 2007 Ames straw poll winner, who decided not to officially compete for Ames this year after losing the Iowa caucuses last time, has three paid staffers in Iowa quietly calling around to turn out votes. His name will still appear on the ballot, even though he doesn't have a tent. The campaign obviously wants to keep expectations low. POLITICO's Kasie Hunt: "Their private measure of victory, according to one state aide: 102 votes, or one more than the 101 that John McCain got when he skipped the 2007 straw poll. McCain, of course, went on to become the nominee. Estimates are that this year's event will draw
 15,000-20,000. Romney's Iowa team turned to its list of the 2,000 precinct captains and organizers who supported Romney in the 2008 caucuses. In the past few weeks, every one of them has gotten a phone call from a Romney staffer asking what his or her intentions are this time." The most telling detail: Romney's staffers don't leave voicemails.
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PALIN TO IOWA - AT THE FAIRGROUNDS: Rick Perry is not the only politician stepping into the limelight of those competing in this weekend's straw poll. Sarah Palin, whose name will not appear on the ballot, announced yesterday that she is making a trip to the state fair in Des Moines, reportedly on Friday. POLITICO's Molly Ball: "While there will be a write-in option on the straw poll ballot, Palin's supporters aren't mounting a campaign for write-in votes like Perry's supporters are...This latest move follows a pattern of political scene-stealing for Palin. Her last bus-tour swing wound up in New Hampshire the same day Mitt Romney was officially announcing his candidacy there. Her Pella
 visit came the day after Michele Bachmann announced her presidential campaign in Waterloo, Iowa."
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AMES SPEAKING ORDER - EACH CANDIDATE GETS 15 MINUTES: Ron Paul got to choose which speaking slot he got because he bid the most for his tent at the straw poll. He puzzlingly decided to go second. Here's the schedule: 12:40-Santorum; 1:15-Paul; 1:50-Pawlenty; 2:20-Bachmann; 2:50-McCotter; 3:15-Cain. An Iowa Republican with extensive straw poll experience told POLITICO's Molly Ball that straw poll speeches could be more important this year than in the past because more voters may show up undecided. But Paul didn't want to go so late that people will have already cast their ballots.
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LAST CHANCE TO ENTER - AMES STRAW POOL CONTEST: The deadline to enter the Morning Score Ames contest is 3 a.m. ET Friday. Perhaps you want to wait until after tonight's debate. The winner gets a free coffee mug (and I'll describe them as a sage)! Email your prediction for the order the candidates finish, the percentage the frontrunner gets and the total number of ballots that will be cast to me at
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] .

WHAT THE CANDIDATES ARE UP TO: It's pretty quiet on the ground ahead of tonight's debate. Romney speaks on the soapbox at the Iowa state fair at 10:30 a.m. Bachmann hosts a backyard chat at a family home in Ankeny. Cain has one bus tour stop scheduled for Ames. Thad McCotter, not in the debate, makes a stop on his bus tour in Sioux City at 8:30 a.m., Le Mars at 9:30 a.m. and Sioux City at 10:30 a.m. Paul has a meet-and-greet in Ames at 9 a.m.
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SUNNY OPTIMIST - PERRY GOES FOR REAGANESQUE FLAIR: Rick Perry, in his first public speech since it became clear he will really run for president, sought to channel Ronald Reagan's sunny optimism and look-at-the-bright-side thinking that is so politically powerful in tough economic times. "This West Texas optimist sees our brightest hour just around the corner," the Texas governor told the National Conference of State Legislatures at the group's annual meeting in San Antonio. From the Austin American Statesman: "While he said he thinks better days are ahead, Perry also said, 'Our fiscal house is built on shifting sands. The federal government has tried to spend our way out of this fiscal
 spiral.'"
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"FINE" WITH IT - GAFFE WON'T UNDERCUT PERRY: Rick Santorum thinks he's really onto something with attacking Perry for saying that he was fine with New York legalizing gay marriage as a state's rights conservative. The former Pennsylvania senator could even bring it up in the debate tonight, even though Perry won't be on stage and has backed away from the comment. POLITICO's Dan Hirschhorn interviews the candidate about his thinking:
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I asked readers the day before last whether they thought the "fine" with it comment would define Perry as Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels' call for a "truce" did when he was considering a bid for president. Of 15 operative types who responded, not one said that it will be. Here are two good sample responses, one on the record and another on background:

Arizona political strategist Chris DeRose, who managed Sean Duffy's campaign last year and served as Director of Election Day Operations for Bob McDonnell, says the comparison doesn't hold up: "The truce story was so damaging because it dovetailed with existing worries that some had about Daniels, namely that he was only focused on fiscal issues, and that he was 'too establishment' for the times (Hill staffer, Bush 1 staffer, Eli Lily Exec, Bush 2 budget architect). Perry is far from establishment favorite (sneered at, even?), and is famous for being conservative. If Mike Huckabee or Michele Bachmann had called for a truce, people would have stopped and wondered 'wait, they must have meant
 something else.' Watch for Perry to be Teflon to some of the charges that he's insufficiently conservative...There's just no way to caricature this man as a moderate."

A huge Daniels fan who thinks the governor got a raw deal and now has no horse in the race: "Perry's 'fine with it' and Mitch's 'truce' are two different things. With any issue voter, like ones who focus on marriage, you either 'Are' or 'Aren't' aligned with their belief... Mitch, while being a religious man, never had that perception nationally and was defined by others as 'not socially conservative' enough to call a truce."

ENTER TANCREDO - CONSERVATIVE HITS PERRY ON IMMIGRATION: Former Colorado Rep. Ton Tancredo reminds us of another issue where Perry does not hew to conservative orthodoxy, blasting him for his soft-stance on immigration in an op-ed for POLITICO today: "Perry is eager to separate himself from his predecessor in the Texas governor's mansion, George W. Bush - who is unpopular with both tea party Republicans and the American electorate as a whole. But one area where Perry's positions are virtually identical to Bush is immigration. When I ran for president in 2008, I tried to pressure the Republican candidates to take a hard line against illegal immigration. For this, Perry called me a racist."
 He specifically faults him for giving the children of undocumented workers in-state tuition, opposing Arizona's law and opposing the border fence.
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BADGERING HIM - LEFT STILL WANTS TO RECALL WALKER: They didn't want the state Senate, but they haven't given up. POLITICO's Dave Catanese: "Democrats are forging ahead with efforts to recall Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker next year, one day after losing four of six recall elections to oust GOP state senators. The Tuesday night losses left Democrats a single seat short of overturning GOP control of the state's upper chamber, though Democratic officials and operatives on the ground insisted Wednesday that their two wins in Republican-leaning areas exposed Walker's weaknesses."
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NEVADA SENATE - GEORGIOU OUT, CLEARS FIELD FOR BERKLEY: The Review-Journal: "Las Vegas millionaire lawyer and businessman Byron Georgiou announced Wednesday he was quitting his run for the U.S. Senate, bringing to a close a long-shot bid that pitted him against Nevada's Democratic establishment. Georgiou's departure clears a path for Rep. Shelley Berkley to win the Democrats' nomination for the 2012 election. Georgiou was the only declared challenger to the party-preferred Berkley." Some national Democrats were scared when he threatened to run as a third-party candidate if he lost the primary, but this will no longer be a problem either.
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OREGON SPECIAL - BONAMICI GOING ON EMILY'S LIST - Emily's List is putting Democrat Suzanne Bonamici "on the list" today in the race for the Oregon House seat opened up by the resignation of David Wu. This will get Bonamici, Assistant Majority Leader in the state Senate, promoted to the group's 900,000 members. "From her time working with Oregon Legal Aid until her current service in the state Senate, Suzanne has worked tirelessly for her community," said Stephanie Schriock, President of EMILY's List. Wu stepped down after being accused of an unwanted sexual encounter with a teen girl. Her candidacy means Democratic women are running in four of the five special congressional elections this
 year. They've already won two: Kathy Hochul in New York and Janice Hahn in California.

BRINGING DOWN THE HOUSE - PPP PREDICTS DEM TAKEOVER IF ELECTIONS HELD TODAY: Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning firm which generally aligns with other polls, released a national poll yesterday showing that Speaker John Boehner's approval rating has dropped 31 points since they polled on it in January, from 52 to 28 percent. On the generic ballot, Democrats lead by seven (47-40), including by three points among independents. PPP's Tom Jensen guesses that Democrats would take back the House if elections were today. "There's little doubt that Democrats are winning the fallout of the debt debate," he said. "Last year independent voters were the driving factor behind the GOP retaking
 the House majority. Now they give it a 20/68 approval rating."
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A MISSOURI MESS - PANTLESS PARTIES, PENTHOUSE PETS & A CAMPAIGN-FUNDED CONDO: Missouri Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder could be in trouble. The Republican planning to challenge Gov. Jay Nixon finds himself caught up in a weird story that's breaking into the mainstream state press. He and his campaign's decision to decline comment since the first story broke means the only story the public has now is from a former Penthouse Pet and ex-stripper-who gave an interview to a radio station yesterday. A Kansas City Star story that posted overnight has the back story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35c9c67543de3f3a64cc155f3b1fb41153197b2961c532763a5d013ac204448e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35c9c67543de3f3a64cc155f3b1fb41153197b2961c532763a5d013ac204448e . Other fresh headlines no politician (make that no man) would want: Barb Shelly's column in the K-C Star: "Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder's walk on the wild side?" (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35c9c67543de3f3a0e73cf6a8b3e842c919cd9733ba00c1337dbed9fbc438b0f 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35c9c67543de3f3a0e73cf6a8b3e842c919cd9733ba00c1337dbed9fbc438b0f  ); St. Louis Public Radio (NPR affiliate): "Allegations of Kinder history with ex-stripper could damage his political future, UMSL prof. says" (
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35c9c67543de3f3af0ba894c63d000cef064ec4a6cbe066b6649737e0f3a3564 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35c9c67543de3f3af0ba894c63d000cef064ec4a6cbe066b6649737e0f3a3564  ); the St. Louis CBS affiliate: "Likely Candidate For Mo Governor Mum On Claims Of Former Penthouse Pet" (
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http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=35c9c67543de3f3a09a586b1560909e1d165e49ce0823548cfdbaeaece534d17 ).

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Obama's definitely benefiting from a 'lesser of two evils' mindset." - Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen explaining why the president's approval rating is at 46 percent in Colorado but he significantly leads all the even less popular Republican presidential candidates.
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