Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Watch McDonnell for VP in '12 or POTUS in '16- Perry schools Bachmann in Waterloo-Romney keeps focus on Obama in new ad-RNC brackets bus trip with radio ads in 3 states-Scramble for Pawlenty free agents
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Aug 2011 04:07:05 -0600

By James Hohmann (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

BATTLE OF WATERLOO - PERRY SCHOOLS BACHMANN: Michele Bachmann won the straw poll, drove her home state governor Tim Pawlenty out of the race and appeared on every Sunday show. Then last night she went to her home town of Waterloo to try showing up her now chief competitor in this winter's Iowa caucuses. It didn't go well. Newly-announced candidate Rick Perry outshined the Minnesota firebrand by excelling at Iowa-style retail politics. POLITICO's Jonathan Martin and Ben Smith, inside the Electric Park Ballroom, were struck by how different the two are stylistically: "The Texas governor let a media throng grow and dissolve before working his way across the room to sit at table after table,
 shake hand after hand, pose for photographs and listen politely to a windy Abraham Lincoln impersonator, paying respect to a state that expects candidates, no matter their fame, to be accessible. But Bachmann campaigned like a celebrity. And the event highlighted the brittle, presidential-style cocoon that has become her campaign's signature: a routine of late entries, unexplained absences, quick exits, sharp-elbowed handlers with matching lapel pins, and pre-selected questioners."
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FIRST IN SCORE - ROMNEY BLASTS OBAMA'S "MAGICAL MISERY BUS TOUR": Mitt Romney shows no immediate sign of altering his strategy in the wake of Ames or Perry. The national frontrunner will instead continue to keep his fire trained on President Obama, his attention focused on the economy and his campaigning concentrated in New Hampshire. The hyper-disciplined Romney campaign will roll out a new web video this morning pegged on the start of the president's bus trip in Minnesota. The minute-long spot, "Obama Isn't Working: Minnesota," features real people from around the Twin Cities talking straight into a camera about their economic struggles. The candidate himself will take his jobs-focused
 message to New Hampshire today, with a tour of a technology park in Litchfield and an economic forum in Plymouth.

MORE - FROM THE SCRIPT: Joseph Bromley (Minnetonka, MN): "In the last election I voted for Barack Obama and I just feel like I can't." David Fogg (Edina, MN): "Why doesn't he stay in Washington and do something about jobs instead of coming here and talking about it?" Text on screen: "AMERICA'S JOB CRISIS." David Lamb (Minneapolis, MN): "I'd like him to figure out how to jump-start our economy." Watch the ad:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d39935a930b8e5342d9bea6750b97f6b48a3827c6bac0bb7c4caf58f05653f5b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d39935a930b8e5342d9bea6750b97f6b48a3827c6bac0bb7c4caf58f05653f5b .

PAWLENTY EXITS - OUT OF CASH, WITHOUT A PATH: A Pawlenty campaign source told JMart that the cash crunch is so dire that the campaign might struggle to make payroll this week and could be forced to delay payments. "Just scaling back was not an option," said the source, noting that Pawlenty was not going to drive around by himself in a car with no campaign. Dropping out on ABC, Pawlenty said of this third place finish (behind Bachmann and Ron Paul): "We needed to get some lift to continue on and have a pathway forward and that didn't happen."
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***As McDonnell enters the arena, Pawlenty staffers field job offers and Duckworth gets a big endorsement, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

THE STAKES - FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD: Perry got rave reviews during his first two days of campaigning, but it still feels like he might be a mere flavor of the month. A full week on the trail could go a long way to assuage suspicions that he's a latter day John Connolly or Phil Gramm, two swashbuckling Texans who flamed out after arriving in the early states to great fanfare. With that in mind, we have these questions for the week ahead.

(1) Can Rick Perry defy the skeptics and avoid even a medium-sized gaffe in his first week as a national candidate?

(2) What kind of fundraising boost is Michele Bachmann getting out of the Ames straw poll?

(3) Will Romney make news to dampen Perry's announcement buzz or just try letting it burn itself out?

(4) What do Mitch Daniels and Haley Barbour really think about Perry?

(5) Which member of Pawlenty's high command will be the first to sign up with another campaign?

TOP TALKER - McDONNELL TAKES TO NATIONAL STAGE: Your Morning Score correspondent traveled to Richmond to interview Bob McDonnell, who is about to become chairman of the Republican Governors Association as Perry gives up the post. This perch is all-but-guaranteed to boost his political fortunes by providing a major platform and access to a fundraising network that would be useful in a future run for higher office. With solid poll ratings as a swing state governor, McDonnell is already drawing attention as a possible GOP vice-presidential prospect in 2012. He said he would be "very interested" in the number two spot on the national ticket next year, and he is keeping the door wide open to a
 2016 run for president. On Sept. 26, he will be the keynote speaker at the New Hampshire GOP's annual fundraiser. It's his first visit to the state since taking office. Ed Gillespie says he'd "be surprised if the Republican nominee doesn't look his way and consider him." Check out what McDonnell told me about Perry and Chris Christie:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d39935a930b8e534b3cdc90baa3a51cf959707e0f233c65decdf004ea348fe6d 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d39935a930b8e534b3cdc90baa3a51cf959707e0f233c65decdf004ea348fe6d .

WARNING SHOT - WSJ EDITORIAL COMPARES BACHMANN TO OBAMA: The Wall Street Journal's editorial board rains on Bachmann's parade today, warning conservatives that her straw poll victory does not mean she can win a general election: "Mrs. Bachmann is a canny politician...More substantively, her attempt to position herself at all times as the anti-establishment outsider has made her seem on occasion less principled than opportunistic." Distancing herself from Paul Ryan's Medicare voucher proposal and opposition to any debt deal are given as examples: "Americans are already living with the consequences of electing a President who sounded good but had achieved little as a legislator and had no
 executive experience. Mrs. Bachmann will have to persuade voters she isn't the conservative version of Mr. Obama."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d39935a930b8e534bac3a1e09e0e28abec0a7271b3924b864452b1be9265bc67 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d39935a930b8e534bac3a1e09e0e28abec0a7271b3924b864452b1be9265bc67 

FIRE SALE - SCRAMBLE TO PICK UP TPAW'S STAFF & DONORS: Santorum, Huntsman and Romney made direct phone calls to key Pawlenty supporters yesterday while others put out indirect feelers, POLITICO's Kendra Marr reports. The New Hampshire Journal surveys the field of Pawlenty operatives available in the Granite State, with Fergus Cullen recalling how California Gov. Pete Wilson dropped out of the 1996 race one week after Steve Forbes announced: "The timing was fortuitous for Wilson's newly unemployed New Hampshire campaign team, several of whom were hired lock, stock, and barrel by Forbes. The Forbes campaign even took over Wilson's Manchester office lease. It was the political equivalent of a
 corporate takeover. Rick Perry could scarcely do better than to pick up Pawlenty's team en masse." Kendra's story makes such a scenario seem unlikely: "There's a sense of loss now that the team is about to scatter and suddenly we'll be on different teams," said Christian Fong, Pawlenty's Iowa campaign co-chair. Fergus' item:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d39935a930b8e5344b7943ff385d26e37977068137dff8cb0a056899c90fda4a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d39935a930b8e5344b7943ff385d26e37977068137dff8cb0a056899c90fda4a . Kendra's:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d1c9ec9a6b8ea8ebc0821101b2d9006118bf4d4077c3b1113905b324ba88df0c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d1c9ec9a6b8ea8ebc0821101b2d9006118bf4d4077c3b1113905b324ba88df0c  . Score wonders: Who will Lucas Baiano produce his buzzy web videos for now?

TPAW'S FUTURE - RULES OUT VP AND 2012 SENATE RUN: Tim Pawlenty said yesterday that he will not challenge Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar next year, even as Minnesota's Republican state chair said he would like the ex-governor to consider it. The Star Tribune's Rachel Stassen-Berger: "Pawlenty might have a better chance of victory in 2014, running against U.S. Sen. Al Franken, who eked out a close victory after a months-long recount. Gov. Mark Dayton will be up for re-election that same year. Pawlenty has mentioned, somewhat ruefully, that had he known how good 2010 would be for Republicans, he could have considered running for a third term as governor. Conceivably, he also could try another
 presidential run in 2016." Pawlenty also said on ABC that he does not want to be vice president.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d1c9ec9a6b8ea8eb380700dcfdcc41580b647878c9ce8679f9b1c3530f9c005c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d1c9ec9a6b8ea8eb380700dcfdcc41580b647878c9ce8679f9b1c3530f9c005c 

STRAW POOL WINNER-VALENTINE CALLS TOP 7: The winner of the Morning Score Ames Straw Pool contest is Steven Valentine of the Susan B. Anthony List. He correctly ranked the top seven finishers and forecasted that Bachmann would win with 26 percent of the vote (she got 28). Valentine was an intern for Sam Brownback at the 2007 straw poll. He recalls staying up 44 hours straight in Ames and learning the hard way how devastating a third place finish can be. For his victory, Valentine gets a POLITICO mug and dinner courtesy of Morning Score. Three runners-up guessed the top three finishers correctly: Matt Mackowiak, Eric Stern and Jeremy Adler.
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ENOUGH FOOLING AROUND - HUNTSMAN GOES AFTER ROMNEY BY NAME: Jon Huntsman is now going after Romney by name, faulting him for not taking a firmer position during the debt negotiations and contrasting his own job creation record in Utah against Romney's as governor of Massachusetts. "When you need to stand up, you take your position, you defend your position, you run a little risk in taking that position, you don't wait until the very end as Governor Romney did, you put your finger to the wind and basically come down on the safe side politically, I just don't think that's leadership," Huntsman said a radio interview with WKXL's Chris Ryan set that will air today.
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"MITT'S WORST NIGHTMARE" - PERRY NOT CRITICIZING ROMNEY YET: That was the Boston Herald's Sunday cover headline and the meme in much of the coverage of the Texas governor's first foray into New Hampshire after his Saturday announcement speech at the RedState blogger convention in South Carolina. Asked about the headline in Manchester Sunday morning, Perry said he hopes to be "a very worthy competitor" and declined to criticize the frontrunner. 'We're going to have a lot of time to discuss, I'm sure, Governor Romney's record," he said. "Today's not the day.' The CNN story on the presser:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d1c9ec9a6b8ea8eb5fa7d57885397d8fc61a511f4851f8e035fc7feedbac7a25 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d1c9ec9a6b8ea8eb5fa7d57885397d8fc61a511f4851f8e035fc7feedbac7a25  . The Herald cover:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d1c9ec9a6b8ea8eb83348ff2fdb15c55271c9fe68316413ea87e6747c98da879 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d1c9ec9a6b8ea8eb83348ff2fdb15c55271c9fe68316413ea87e6747c98da879 .

UNDER SCRUTINY - PERRY CHANGES TUNE ON HPV VACCINE: The Texas Tribune is up with a story this morning that suggests Perry will begin to distance himself from controversial parts of his record as governor that he has until now embraced in Texas. "For years, Gov. Rick Perry has taken flak for his 2007 attempt to require girls to be vaccinated against HPV, the most commonly sexually transmitted disease and the principal cause of cervical cancer. At the risk of angering fellow conservatives, Perry has always insisted he did the right thing. That unapologetic approach changed this weekend. A few hours after unveiling his campaign for president, Perry began walking back from one of the most
 controversial decisions of his more-than-10-year reign as Texas governor." Jay Root's story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d1c9ec9a6b8ea8eb2af12ed73e92180aff545e86ecf3f533a0356a7b46a1d213 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d1c9ec9a6b8ea8eb2af12ed73e92180aff545e86ecf3f533a0356a7b46a1d213 .

WHAT THE CANDIDATES ARE UP TO: Perry takes his bus out across Iowa. The highlight of his day will be a campaign stop at the state fair. Romney has the two economic events in New Hampshire. Herman Cain speaks at Indiana Republican headquarters in Indianapolis. Buddy Roemer holds a 10 a.m. press conference at the National Press Club.

DRIVING THE DAY - OBAMA'S BUS TOUR: From the White House Daily Guidance:

"In the morning, the President will travel to St. Paul, Minnesota to begin his three-day bus tour in the Midwest...Later, the President will hold a town hall event in Cannon Falls, Minnesota at Lower Hannah's Bend Park...In the afternoon, the President will host a town hall event in Decorah, Iowa at Seed Savers Exchange...The President will spend the night in Decorah, Iowa." Jay Carney will gaggle aboard Air Force One.

POLITICO's Glenn Thrush writes a curtain-raiser that focuses on Obama's broader "vision problem." The trip happens as Gallup's Sunday tracking poll showed Obama at an all-time low of 39 percent approval. His negative number is 54 percent.
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RNC MESSAGING - "OBAMA'S DEBT-END TOUR": The Republican National Committee is going on offense against the president's campaign bus tour, just as the Democratic National Committee flooded the zone in Ames last week. The effort starts with a 9 a.m. rally at the president's first stop in Cannon Falls with RNC Chairman Reince Priebus and MNGOP Chairman Tony Sutton. Radio ads will run in Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois all week. It's a light buy, but the campaign will seek to show how bad the economy really is in each of the three states the president visits. Minnesota has lost 19,000 manufacturing and 19,000 construction jobs, for example. In each ad, the narrator presses voters to ask Obama
 where the jobs are, asks what happened to his promise to cut the deficit in half and faults him for losing the AAA credit rating. The tagline: "Can you afford four more years of Barack Obama?" Here's the Minnesota radio ad:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0dad582a10b076738d3a1bec7306f9959a3c3f5e1fc0e0a668feacccb9c0fbfc 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0dad582a10b076738d3a1bec7306f9959a3c3f5e1fc0e0a668feacccb9c0fbfc  . Watch the web video:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0dad582a10b0767352817c862de87b7b3495a7a13d9d1e27eba509ab58e6bc12 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0dad582a10b0767352817c862de87b7b3495a7a13d9d1e27eba509ab58e6bc12  .

HOUSE TALKER - NATE SILVER ARGUES THAT GOP MAJORITY IS AT RISK: The polling guru of 538 fame puts together a forecast for Democratic pick-ups next year based on Gallup data out Friday that showed Democrats with a seven point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. Nate Silver: "If the House popular vote were to be a tie next year, Democrats would pick up a few seats - but very probably not enough to win the majority from Republicans...In order to have even odds of actually taking over the House, instead, Democrats would probably need to win the House popular vote by somewhere between 3 and 4 percentage points. A 7-point win in the House popular vote would probably get the job done
 for Democrats: the model projects that they'd win 39 seats in this scenario." The major variable, of course, is turnout.
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http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0dad582a10b07673cd43fd7e52b801c6f3d3f6fc01691b48e9447511b90efab8 

DEEP DISH POLITICS - DURBIN TO ENDORSE DUCKWORTH: The senior Illinois senator will endorse Tammy Duckworth for Illinois' eighth congressional district at noon today over another Democrat running for the seat. The two will visit a manufacturer located in the newly drawn district, and the Senate progressive plans to tout the importance of federal incentives to the company's and highlight some of the company's success. The endorsement is not a surprise, but it will help solidify Duckworth's status as the clear frontrunner.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'I don't want to be perceived as stringing people along.' - Sarah Palin at the Iowa State Fair, just after saying she'll decide whether to run for president by September.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0dad582a10b0767378995689b3beb0d2ec0918a0b1b2af18278a742fb83caa73 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0dad582a10b0767378995689b3beb0d2ec0918a0b1b2af18278a742fb83caa73 

Go to POLITICO Morning Score Now >> http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0dad582a10b07673304fcdaf9500ca71d284b7fef172e912b3b737f4b08490e3

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