Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Flake endorses Romney--NRSC to push vulnerable Dems to go on record about president’s tax hike proposal--Unemployment, poverty rise in Texas—Mitch Daniels says there’s room for another candidate--Paul wins CA straw poll--Dems blast Ovide as he announces in NH
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2011 04:13:10 -0600

By James Hohmann (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

EXCLUSIVE - JEFF FLAKE ENDORSES ROMNEY: Arizona Rep. Jeff Flake will announce his support later this morning for Mitt Romney. Flake, who has a record as a leading fiscal conservative in the House, is now running for the Senate and expected to win both the nomination and general election. Arizona has become way more important since officially moving its primary up to February 28, so this is a great get. From Flake's statement: "Mitt Romney has the experience and vision to get our country on the right path again. Whether it was his time as governor or as a successful businessman, Mitt Romney has shown that he has the economic knowledge to create the environment for businesses to start hiring
 again."

As the Texas "Miracle" takes a hit, Cain won't say who secretly advises him on the economy and Daniels says there's still room for another Republican to run for president, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

THE STAKES - FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD: President Obama will be the central foil of this week, with his tax plan driving today's conversation and Ron Suskind's controversial book distracting the White House. Thursday brings another Republican debate, and the end of week brings straw polls in Florida and Michigan. With this in mind, we have these five questions for the week ahead:

(1) How many network morning shows will feature the Ron Suskind book today (and tomorrow)?

(2) How will the disheartened Democratic base react to the president's proposed millionaire's tax?

(3) What is Rick Perry doing right now to make sure his next debate - in Florida this week - is his best?

(4) What percentage of Michele Bachmann's public appearances will involve references to HPV?

(5) Which straw poll will matter more this weekend: Florida's Presidency 5 or Michigan's Mackinac Conference? (Bonus: Which one SHOULD matter more?)

"CLASS WARFARE" vs. "THE BUFFETT RULE"- OBAMA TO PROPOSE $1.5 TRILLION IN NEW TAXES TODAY: Republicans tell Score that President Obama's call for $1.5 trillion in new taxes is an opportunity to drive a wedge between the president and vulnerable Democratic incumbents. The National Republican Senatorial Committee will send out releases later this morning calling on all 2012 Senate Democrats, particularly those in red states, to take a position on the president's proposal. Obama's package to save $3-plus trillion over a decade will be dead on arrival in the current House, but that's not the point. The White House gambles this will shore up the liberal base in the short-term and that ultimately
 they can win a general election battle over whether to raise taxes on millionaires.

John Harwood's analysis in the New York Times: "Polls show that most Americans side with Mr. Obama on higher taxes for the wealthy. But voters are dispirited about economic conditions and with Mr. Obama's leadership in general, and he has been ineffective in pressuring Congress to go along. Administration aides insist that two factors provide a new opening: rising anxiety about jobs and deficits, and lawmakers' own rock-bottom ratings. Mr. Obama has begun trying to replicate his 2008 success by abandoning closed-door negotiations for feisty, campaign-style language. But so far his aspirations for big shifts in tax policy share something in common with the income gap that underlies them:
 evidence of a breakthrough remains elusive."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db23dae2de989180597e43434b3854e4b3b3285bbd081e1b357f9de19990b8a4 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db23dae2de989180597e43434b3854e4b3b3285bbd081e1b357f9de19990b8a4 

Here are six curtain-raisers detailing what the president will propose:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db23dae2de98918074bdd1a4703248f3585d3c0c8931f7728da1083a71fea788 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db23dae2de98918074bdd1a4703248f3585d3c0c8931f7728da1083a71fea788  ;
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db23dae2de9891809b5add54d71dd22b28d8d95310978463615d8fe84141a239 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=db23dae2de9891809b5add54d71dd22b28d8d95310978463615d8fe84141a239 ;
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc76daee4ee8939b943c0cebe7185630806dc889bd9adcc32ade 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc76daee4ee8939b943c0cebe7185630806dc889bd9adcc32ade  ;
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc76fa22f8915da285651a610c6b0c060315f6ac6f6b76318944 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc76fa22f8915da285651a610c6b0c060315f6ac6f6b76318944  ;
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc768b23e2eb0e91ec860d523f0145df6909a53c9fe2d172623b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc768b23e2eb0e91ec860d523f0145df6909a53c9fe2d172623b  ;
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc768e89c1fe0219c80b26b9a946fe94937a1084b38fdc47e7f0 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc768e89c1fe0219c80b26b9a946fe94937a1084b38fdc47e7f0  .

2012 TALKER - PERRY MUST CONVINCE GOP ELITES HE CAN CARRY THE SUBURBS IN A GENERAL: "Within Republican circles in the states that will decide the next president, the debate increasingly centers on who can win in a race that, for now, seems focused on two people. And in the minds of many, while Perry leads in most polls, he has to convince his party that he can be the better general election candidate," Jonathan Martin and Dan Hirschhorn write in a story leading POLITICO's home page this morning. Elected officials and professionals in Colorado, Virginia, Florida and Pennsylvania talk about how Perry could play in their states.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc766ad5ad84261eccada35dac04470d28a84ec19dd0dfaac4a4 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc766ad5ad84261eccada35dac04470d28a84ec19dd0dfaac4a4 

TEXAS "MIRACLE" - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND POVERTY GROWING: Texas' unemployment rate increased to 8.5 percent last month. The Austin American-Statesman notes that this is its highest rate since June 1987: "Texas gained 8,100 private-sector jobs, but those jobs were wiped out by job losses in the public sector...In August alone, the state lost 11,500 jobs in local government, for a net loss of 9,400 government jobs. The Texas unemployment rate ranks 27th, tied with Colorado."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc76110c9576f7f1250bfd0497433b66681b0c5d95ad2025c0a0 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc76110c9576f7f1250bfd0497433b66681b0c5d95ad2025c0a0 

Meanwhile, the Lone Star State's poverty rate grew faster than the national average in 2010. Per CNNMoney: "Texas ranks 6th in terms of people living in poverty. Some 18.4% of Texans were impoverished in 2010, up from 17.3% a year earlier, according to Census bureau data [released last week]." For context, the national average is 15.1%.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc768a6e6c235d885bd1f84ebff284c5f38ffb646d6b64384b62 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8aee530b0a8cdc768a6e6c235d885bd1f84ebff284c5f38ffb646d6b64384b62 

WHERE HE COMES FROM - PERRY'S PAINT CREEK: Today's NYT has a feature about Perry's hometown of Paint Creek, Texas-"the tight-knit and traditionally Democratic community that first crowned him king no longer wholeheartedly embraces him even as Paint Creek anchors his origin story." [
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c7111f67c2beca1b09bd01ad7eb761d162bdf0cd069619b9c22 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c7111f67c2beca1b09bd01ad7eb761d162bdf0cd069619b9c22  ]The Post has a story about just how different Perry's background is from Romney's. [
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c71edd85b5ff1b3be2c988f485010347d636eea5fdd1e3d6415 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c71edd85b5ff1b3be2c988f485010347d636eea5fdd1e3d6415 ]

THE BUZZ JUST WON'T DIE - GIGOT SAYS CHRISTIE IS "VERY CAREFULLY" CONSIDERING A RUN: Wall Street Journal editorial editor Paul Gigot said on "Fox News Sunday" yesterday that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie may still be interested in running for president. 'I do think that he's considering it,' said Gigot, despite his repeated public insistence that he is not. "For all of that, I think that enough people have gone to him now and said, 'This field is weak and none of them may be able to beat the president. We think you can do it. Now is your moment!'" Two-minute video clip:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c712cadaa37e227950fda344197c931116610eaad162a01aef1 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c712cadaa37e227950fda344197c931116610eaad162a01aef1 .

MITCH DANIELS - STILL ROOM FOR SOMEONE ELSE: Selling his new book, the Indiana governor who passed on a run said that the Romney vs. Perry debate on Social Security has not been helpful. "Somebody else could still enter and have a competitive chance," Daniels told The New York Times this weekend. Jeff Zeleny: "Mr. Daniels said the rise of Mr. Perry's candidacy suggested that it remained possible for another Republican candidate - he declined to say who - to still consider running for the party's nomination. 'He proved it wasn't too late - I don't think it's too late yet,' Mr. Daniels said, noting that he had 'tried to recruit three or four people.'"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c717360d041941d5c6b74ec6911c675e5c58ce8b920b31a4eec 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c717360d041941d5c6b74ec6911c675e5c58ce8b920b31a4eec 

FLORIDA - PERRY IS FRONTRUNNER FOR P5: The latest St. Petersburg Times Florida Insider Poll, out yesterday, finds the Sunshine State's top political professionals split on whether Perry or Romney will win the state's primary next year. Two-thirds of the 100-plus participants see Romney as a better general election candidate. Looking ahead to the straw poll this weekend, expected to draw more than 3,500 activists: 56% of the insiders call it a credible indicator of a candidate's strength with Florida Republicans, and 80-plus percent predict Perry will win. More than 70 percent of Adam Smith's group say it is unwise for Bachmann and Romney to not speak to the delegates the day of the vote
 (part of their strategy to downplay the significance).
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c71eff908afffc308cb78bc6d8f604ccf9fbc6f2f190bfbafc1 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c71eff908afffc308cb78bc6d8f604ccf9fbc6f2f190bfbafc1 

RAISING EYEBROWS - CAIN REFUSES TO SAY WHO GIVES HIM ECONOMIC ADVICE: Sunday brought another profoundly odd "Fox News Sunday" moment with Herman Cain. He announced that "some of the best economists in this country" helped him create his 9-9-9 plan but refused to say who. "The chairman of my economic advisers is a gentleman by the name of Rich Lowery of Cleveland, Ohio. He worked with a couple of other people quite frankly that are well known that I'm not at liberty to mention their names," Cain said. "Why not?" host Chris Wallace asked. "Because they have their own independent businesses and I don't want to compromise their confidentiality at this point. When they tell me it is OK to
 mention their names publicly, I will mention it. But I - trust me, it was a couple of people that you know very well."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c71fcc066b4478f01348eaef6ed42a3994f11d2b3a4b245a143 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c71fcc066b4478f01348eaef6ed42a3994f11d2b3a4b245a143 

LINDSEY GRAHAM - 2012 ELECTION IS GOP'S TO LOSE: 'President Obama has done everything he knows how to do to beat himself,' the South Carolina Republican said on CNN's 'State of the Union.' 'The reason people have little conference in President Obama's policies is they're just not working. Everything is worse.'
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c71e0f1c1594d76e9aa714a3f21ab3841615355d8157050c1a6 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c71e0f1c1594d76e9aa714a3f21ab3841615355d8157050c1a6 

CALIFORNIA STRAW POLL - PAUL WINS: Texas Rep. Ron Paul won the straw poll at the California Republican state convention. Of 833 ballots cast, Paul won with 45 percent. Perry finished second with 29 percent, and Romney got 9 percent as a distant third.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c71074e416842dc4e3b0def494bb818ef04ca2b87e274b07d83 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c71074e416842dc4e3b0def494bb818ef04ca2b87e274b07d83 

PENNSYLVANIA STRAW POLL - SANTORUM WINS: He won a straw poll of his home state GOP's central committee with 36 percent on Friday night.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c71fdd26d84bbf25d29ae2ebc1021401fd9b761266fd07f5360 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=683445c1f4767c71fdd26d84bbf25d29ae2ebc1021401fd9b761266fd07f5360 

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO: Bachmann tours Sukup Manufacturing factory in Sheffield, Iowa, at noon and OMJC Signals factory in Waterloo at 3 p.m. She'll host "employee roundtables" at both sites. Perry hosts a fundraiser at the San Carlos hotel in New York City. Cain speaks at a rally hosted by Tea Party Manatee at Mixon Fruit Farms in Bradenton, Fla., a meet-and-greet event hosted by the Belleaire Republican Women's Club and a 7 p.m. rally with Sarasota Republican Party. Santorum speaks at the Bedford Republican Breakfast at the Manchester, N.H., Country Club.

WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS UP TO: He announces the tax plan in the Rose Garden at 10:30 a.m. Then he flies to New York for a United Nations meeting and a 7:30 p.m. fundraiser.

COURTING TRUMP - MITT TO MEET DONALD-Trump tells Jonathan Capehart that Romney is visiting Trump Tower on Sept. 26.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd4b4d4889187428997e95ee0746d65163ebeb656a4f708a2a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd4b4d4889187428997e95ee0746d65163ebeb656a4f708a2a 

HPV LATEST -

-BACHMANN KEEPS ATTACKING: Michele Bachmann linked Perry's vaccine mandate to Obama's federal support for the now-bankrupt and scandal-ridden Solyndra. Both, she suggested, were done as favors for cronies who had given money. 'It's wrong to abuse executive authority with unilateral action, and of course the governor of Texas admitted as much that he made a mistake,' Bachmann said Friday, per the Los Angeles Times. 'People don't want a president or a governor making decisions based on political connections. It's wrong.'
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd2bcd3339fb1629efde6aec7ad8d89eda85ebc5935b8ecd05 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd2bcd3339fb1629efde6aec7ad8d89eda85ebc5935b8ecd05 

-NIKKI HALEY SUPPORTED MANDATORY VACCINATION: As a state representative, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley supported a bill that would have required HPV vaccinations. Per CNN: "Unlike the executive order for which Perry is taking heat, this legislative mandate did not include a provision for parents to opt out of inoculating their daughters. Within months, fierce opposition mounted, and legislative records back up accounts from sources who recall sponsors 'dropping like flies' before a unanimous vote killed the bill on April 18, 2007. More than a dozen legislators formally requested to be removed as sponsors from the bill, but the future governor of South Carolina was not one of them."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd2de0eca2d8cbc178da42a797bf43ac54ae61592bf20a0b05 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd2de0eca2d8cbc178da42a797bf43ac54ae61592bf20a0b05 

-CORRECTION: Friday's Morning Score linked to an ABC item about a woman who died of cervical cancer. I wrongly said that the woman was an inspiration for Perry to sign the executive order mandating the HPV vaccine. In fact, the governor did not meet her until after a massive conservative backlash in Austin.

SNEAK PEEK - N.H. DEMS BLAST OVIDE AS HE ENTERS GOVERNOR'S RACE: Democrats will attack frontrunner Ovide Lamontagne today as he announces his candidacy for the Republican nomination to run for New Hampshire governor. A press release going out later from the state Democrats paints him as a perennial candidate (this is his fourth run for political office) totally in cahoots with the tea party. The initial Dem assault on Lamontagne will follow three lines: He opposes abortion, even in the case of rape and incest. In 1993, he called schools "glorified social service agencies." And he recently pushed right-to-work laws.

Separately, Union Leader State House bureau chief Tom Fahey looks at other Republicans and Democrats who may jump into the wide-open governor's race in the wake of John Lynch's announcement last week that he will not seek a fifth term:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd44aaec1428cba496d151da0fbba1a7a9aa069fa7be2e4c8c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd44aaec1428cba496d151da0fbba1a7a9aa069fa7be2e4c8c .

EMILY'S LIST - ENDORSING SUZANNE BONAMICI: EMILY's List will announce today that they are throwing their full support behind the Democratic state senator running to fill David Wu's open seat. "She knows what matters to her constituents and has fought tirelessly for reforms in education, environmental practices and health care," Stephanie Schriock, President of EMILY's List, says in a forthcoming statement.

HOUSE - NRCC GOES UP AGAINST KISSELL: The National Republican Congressional Committee is going on the air today with a very small buy in North Carolina against Rep. Larry Kissell. Video:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd1a76acb0652bdbd3e6799e10fbc3018cadd877f1e228e4dc 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd1a76acb0652bdbd3e6799e10fbc3018cadd877f1e228e4dc 

WISCONSIN GOVERNOR - WALKER SPEAKS ON FBI INVESTIGATION: "Governor Scott Walker says he's in the dark about the raid on the home of a top official in his administration," WKOW reports. "Walker says his office has not been told anything about the search. FBI agents combed through Cynthia Archer's home in Madison on Wednesday morning. Archer says she doesn't know why they searched her home and maintains she's done nothing wrong. Archer works for the Department of Children and Families and previously was an aide to Walker when he was Milwaukee County Executive."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd64bb09521dad174bdd195a116ae71232126454f6fefd9ab8 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd64bb09521dad174bdd195a116ae71232126454f6fefd9ab8 

IOWA STATE SENATE - SPECIAL ELECTION COULD DEPRIVE DEMS OF MAJORITY: "Iowa Republicans will have a shot on Nov. 8 to knock Democrats from their one-seat senate majority due to Gov. Terry Branstad's appointment of a Democratic senator to the Iowa Utilities Board," the Des Moines Register reports. "If Republicans win, the 50-seat Senate in 2012 will be evenly split. That would give the GOP a far better chance to push ahead on a handful of issues that have been blocked in the Senate such as a proposal to amend the state constitution and eliminate marriage rights for same-sex couples, members of both parties agreed." There are more registered Republicans than Democrats in the district holding
 the special.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd42643dcb363ef2a6ed39d42425f9d2943558efa9a12a82ca 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acd42643dcb363ef2a6ed39d42425f9d2943558efa9a12a82ca 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Well, we'd probably have an argument over that gay thing." - Jay Leno's retort when Bachmann joked during a somewhat contentious Friday interview on his show that she might ask him to be vice president.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acddf6a31df8ea6bc7168d76392f83688a80b52014b1fe4bebd 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77126d3f64bb8acddf6a31df8ea6bc7168d76392f83688a80b52014b1fe4bebd 

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