Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Crossroads poll generates messaging advice on jobs bill--DCCC doubles NRCC September fundraising--How damaging will the Rubio story be?--Romney's path in Iowa clearer than ever--Cain under fire--Fox schedules 2 more debates
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2011 05:09:49 -0600

By James Hohmann (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

FIRST IN SCORE - CROSSROADS POLL SHOWS EITHER SIDE COULD STILL WIN JOBS MESSAGING WAR:After the Senate defeated President Obama's full jobs act last week, Democrats started their push to move popular chunks as standalone legislation last night. But, on a 50-50 vote, the Senate blocked a $35 billion bill that would give money for states and localities to hire teachers and first responders. As the fight moves into its next phase, a national survey conducted by Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies finds that 45% approve of Obama's 'jobs plan' while 44% disapprove. The numbers get softer if you attack the right way.

Crossroads GPS President Steven Law has written a strategy memo about how Republicans can best push back on the president's plan. His three-prong message:

1. Emphasize the bipartisan opposition to Obama's big-spending plans.

2. Compare Obama's failed Stimulus I with Stimulus II, provision by provision.

a. Compare the promises Obama made about Stimulus I with the claims he is now making about how Stimulus II will perform.

b. Remind Americans how the first $830 billion of stimulus funds were spent.

c. Review how the U.S. economy and employment levels responded.

3. Highlight the larger problems our country faces and point out that Obama's stimulus is not a serious solution, but rather a "Band Aid" that fails to fix these problems.

The full three-page memo:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5aa5f39e7801b423466847578230485aff0cf9a01df07ea705cdeae5132188b4 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5aa5f39e7801b423466847578230485aff0cf9a01df07ea705cdeae5132188b4 .

SEPTEMBER FUNDRAISING - DCCC NEARLY DOUBLES NRCC:Thedisparity in the $6.6 million vs. $3.8 million filings last night was pretty striking considering House Republicans' 25-seat majority. The DCCC leads $47 to $44 million for the year, but the NRCC has $12.5 million cash on hand compared to $9.5 million for the NRCC. Alex Isenstadt explains the surprising trend (the third month in a row that the Dems outraised Republicans): "Some Republican strategists also say the NRCC has been hamstrung by the efforts of GOP outside groups, led by American Crossroads, which suck up donor cash. The field of GOP presidential candidates is also competing for funds."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b54940f39d12f233d319e41b0ad20d94c1066b2799b9c95385 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b54940f39d12f233d319e41b0ad20d94c1066b2799b9c95385 

PARTY COMMITTEE MINDMELDS-

.NRCC: It was the best off-year Q3 since 2005 and the best off-year September since 2005. They are $17 million, or 63%, ahead of where they were in 2009 ($44.2 vs. $27.2).
.DCCC: The committee had its best single day of online support ever on September 30, with the most contributions and contributors ever. Debt is down to $2 million after starting off at $19.7 million. When Republicans were in the minority two years ago at this point, they raised $3.41 million and Democrats raised $6.64 million.
.DSCC: Democratic Senate campaigns across the country had over $97 million cash on hand as of September 30, including $10.9 million from the DSCC. Republican Senate campaigns have about $75 million on hand, including $6.8 million from the NRSC. For the 3rd quarter, the DSCC raised $9.74 million, including $4.53 million in September. The DSCC has raised $33.2 million total for the cycle.
.NRSC: September $3.42 million haul is more than the $2.9 million they took in September 2007. They've raised $30.6 million so far this cycle, compared to only $23.8 million at this point four years ago. They have $6.8 million cash-on-hand and ZERO DEBT.

*** As Rubio grapples with his toughest news cycle ever, Romney plants a flag in Iowa and Cardoza goes out swinging, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

ROMNEY PLANTS A FLAG IN IOWA -Mitt Romney made his much anticipated trip to the caucus state, which has generated stories in every major newspaper this morning about how seriously he will compete there as the caucuses approach.

.HIS PATH TO VICTORY HAS NEVER BEEN CLEARER: "Potentially formidable rivals in the first-in-the-nation caucus state - such as Tim Pawlenty and Rick Perry - have stumbled badly or dropped out of the race. A handful of social conservative opponents are dividing up the voting bloc that powered Mike Huckabee's campaign four years ago," Alex Burns writes. "And while Romney hasn't built the battleship-sized caucus organization he had in 2008, none of his GOP challengers has, either. It's as if the less Romney does in Iowa, the more inviting the state becomes."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b5c4209cd6e9363b6259a08d34dee22e31c83218a95b47b70b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b5c4209cd6e9363b6259a08d34dee22e31c83218a95b47b70b 
.TOUTS ELECTABILITY-HOW THE REGISTER TOUTED THEIR INTERVIEW:Romney stressed his ability to win a general election vis-a-vis his opponents throughout an interview with the Des Moines Register yesterday. He told the paper that in a general he could carry Iowa, his native state of Michigan and his adopted state of Massachusetts.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b5e76de7a61c7174c65810d21eba541003bb79cfe6784e122a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b5e76de7a61c7174c65810d21eba541003bb79cfe6784e122a 
.DUCKS ON ETHANOL SUBSIDIES:"Romney declined Thursday to commit to specific federal measures to support farmers or ethanol producers," the Des Moines Register reports from one of his events. "[He] told community leaders here that he values the role of agriculture, but that he would need to study the issues as president before deciding exactly which government farm supports are worthwhile."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b5e3c42c370f4614ff527eee72e5911f17711ddb426ad286d3 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b5e3c42c370f4614ff527eee72e5911f17711ddb426ad286d3 

BRACKETING ROMNEY -

.DNC ATTACKS ON HEALTH CARE AND IMMIGRATION:The Democratic National Committee is posting two new web videos on their WhichMitt.com web site this morning that attack Romney for comments he made in this week's debate. A party official tells Score that the debate offered "a treasure trove" of good clips from which they can continue to define Romney as a FLIP-FLOPPER who will say or do anything to get elected. Here is the health care hit:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b500fef79283b1e9f8ee5d4422c0e591cd48504f395003e54c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b500fef79283b1e9f8ee5d4422c0e591cd48504f395003e54c . Here is the one on immigration:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b5fc1c091c3fb031bcc5374a5681f52b9128df06f7bdedaba9 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b5fc1c091c3fb031bcc5374a5681f52b9128df06f7bdedaba9 .
."OCCUPY" BOSTON TARGETING BAIN TODAY:Protestors in Boston are going to do a "mass leafleting drive outside the Boston headquarters of Bain Capital" at noon. The advisory:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b520f87258dcb125cd5d8cd40a8dab3e19fa45bee86889dfaf 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b520f87258dcb125cd5d8cd40a8dab3e19fa45bee86889dfaf .
CAIN PLAYS DEFENSE -

.ABORTION COMMENTS PANIC SOCIAL CONSERVATIVES:Cain badly lost the day Thursday, defending remarks about the federal government's role in abortion policy. Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann both vociferously attacked Cain as pro-choice, and the ex-pizza baron was forced to try clarifying that he does not think the president can order people not to have abortions but that he is "100% pro-life." Cain's statement to David Brody:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b506457478da2c238dcf5ff020c93b47b49fdf3a5c6e5b8c83 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b506457478da2c238dcf5ff020c93b47b49fdf3a5c6e5b8c83 . Jon Ward's story about growing doubts of social conservatives for the Huffington Post:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b5fa817672328e9b42042aa34555e7f5dfe9d2d58eb86aaba1 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b5fa817672328e9b42042aa34555e7f5dfe9d2d58eb86aaba1 .
.GROWING SCRUTINY - CONSERVATIVES VOICING MORE DOUBTS ABOUT CAIN:Craig Robinson, on his influential Iowa Republican blog, tees off on Cain in a post pegged to the abortion comments. He asks: "How many times and on how many different subjects will he be allowed to ask for a 'do-over' before he loses trust and credibility with voters?" The three issues he is most exasperated about: Cain's openness to negotiate with terrorists, his willingness to leave gun regulation to states and his past support for TARP.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b52721111ac77daf3713c06c53e44a1f66cf4acab05fad6852 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e27b673a9390b0b52721111ac77daf3713c06c53e44a1f66cf4acab05fad6852 
.BUT - HE'S FINALLY INVESTING IN IOWA:FormerIowa Republican Party state chair Steve Grubbs will head up Cain's Iowa operation.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c755564199ac18e7fa9bb29e984cec259bceb3f64bcc9a9fc 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c755564199ac18e7fa9bb29e984cec259bceb3f64bcc9a9fc 

CALENDAR UPDATE - NEVADA GOVERNOR READY TO MOVE CAUCUSES BACK TO FEBRUARY:No final agreement was reached yesterday, but there was progress toward the solution everyone seems to be coming to terms with. The Las Vegas Sun:"Gov. Brian Sandoval doesn't have the official last word on telling the state party whether to stick to its guns or bend to national GOP pressure to move its caucus date back to February. But as the top Republican in the state, many in Nevada are looking to him for a signal. On Thursday, he indicated he was ready to cave to national party pressure and move Nevada's caucuses after the other early contests - though that's not how he wanted to characterize it."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14cd45dc8ccc1c544bb2492af48aac7491391e2f5bea31f3bcd 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14cd45dc8ccc1c544bb2492af48aac7491391e2f5bea31f3bcd 

LIBYA - ROMNEY TAKES HEAT FOR SHIFTING POSITION:As Gadhafi fell, ABC's Jake Tapper did a post rounding up all of the frontrunner's comments since March. He documents that the candidate took five different positions. "The one consistency has been criticism of President Obama," Tapper concludes. "But beyond that, he's seemed a bit all over the Libyan map." The campaign insists Romney's position has evolved as the situation on the ground changed. Later, in Council Bluffs, a reporter asked Romney if Obama deserved any credit for the killing: "Yes, yes, absolutely," he said, leaving an event.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c19210974bcaccd112b782b2ae730bee149b384d8c14c7ee5 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c19210974bcaccd112b782b2ae730bee149b384d8c14c7ee5 

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO:Cain gives a policy speech in Detroit and then speaks at a party dinner in Indianapolis. Romney speaks to the Oklahoma Republican Party in OKC. Paul makes four stops across Iowa: touring a wind energy plant in Newton, hosting town halls in Davenport and Burlington and then hosting a homecoming event at the University of Iowa in Iowa City.

WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS UP TO: "In the morning, President Obama will sign the Korea, Panama and Colombia Free Trade Agreements and the renewal of Trade Adjustment Assistance for workers in the Oval Office...Later, the President will drop by a reception in the Rose Garden with business and labor leaders as well as workers who will benefit from these bills... In the afternoon, the President will honor the recipients of the 2010 National Medal of Science and National Medal of Technology and Innovation."

POLLING -

.PUBLIC POLICY POLLING-OBAMA WEAK IN OHIO:"Obama's approval rating in the state is only 43%, with 52% of voters disapproving of him. He's very unpopular with independents at 39/57, and even with Democrats his approval has dropped to a worrisome low of 73%. He's in particularly bad shape with white voters (37/57) and men (38/58)."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c92708769a72679dc87a9029be529aaae2a5cba84773c7e69 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c92708769a72679dc87a9029be529aaae2a5cba84773c7e69 
.AP/GFK-"GLOOM PERSISTS, THOUGH NOT AS DARK AS SUMMER": "A sizable majority - more than 7 in 10 - believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and, in a new high, 43 percent describe the nation's economy as 'very poor,' according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Among those surveyed, less than 40 percent say Obama's proposed remedies for high unemployment would increase jobs significantly."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c779d4ffdbc6275138cfc5cd201adf94a14cdb046a72dd0e0 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c779d4ffdbc6275138cfc5cd201adf94a14cdb046a72dd0e0 
.GALLUP-OBAMA JOB APPROVAL AVERAGE SLIDES TO NEW LOW IN 11TH QUARTER:"President Barack Obama averaged 41% job approval during his 11th quarter in office, down six percentage points from his 10th quarter average and his lowest to date. Obama's most recent quarterly average ranks in the bottom fifth of all 262 presidential quarters Gallup has measured since 1945."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c41ff7cb5e55b1710df39c127c6face9976d8d3b684e961cd 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c41ff7cb5e55b1710df39c127c6face9976d8d3b684e961cd 

DEBATES - FOX ANNOUNCES TWO MORE:"The Iowa debate will be held on Thursday Dec. 15 at 9pmET in Sioux City while Myrtle Beach will play host to a GOP debate on Monday, Jan. 16 also at 9pmET.Both debates will be moderated by 'Special Report' anchor Bret Baier," per TV Newser.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c83f6d9217b58ac0c13e3a2bba6587788b4e0b80cb7d488f8 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c83f6d9217b58ac0c13e3a2bba6587788b4e0b80cb7d488f8 . Peggy Noonan's column in today's Wall Street Journal argues that all the debates have been "a real plus for the GOP":
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c49474b29547c47164b28fe8f106a5b15a1c59e198688a4da 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c49474b29547c47164b28fe8f106a5b15a1c59e198688a4da .

SENATE TALKER - WILL 2012 BE ANOTHER YEAR OF THE WOMAN?"Ten women - six of them incumbents - are presumed Democratic Senate nominees this year, and another is seriously considering a run. Republicans have one female senator, Olympia J. Snowe of Maine, up for re-election, and one presumed nominee, Linda Lingle of Hawaii, that state's former governor. Other women in both parties are engaged in primary fights. It is the greatest number of female incumbents ever up for re-election in the Senate, and would be among the highest number of nominees ever, which could add up to a banner year for women in the deliberative - and testosterone-infused - legislative body. But, with Democrats endangered
 and Republicans lagging in recruitment of women - one of their own, Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, is retiring - it is also quite possible that in 2012, women could lose ground in the Senate for the first time in a generation."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c13ca6d6d2774f347897000763e08ceb6c690304be625c9df 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c13ca6d6d2774f347897000763e08ceb6c690304be625c9df 

HOUSE TALKER - CARDOZA RETIRES:The California Democrat goes out swinging against Obama."In an unusual departure from House custom - and a stunning breach of political etiquette - the five-term Democrat ripped the White House in sharp and politically loaded terms, providing ammunition that its GOP enemies will be certain to use for the foreseeable future," Alex Isenstadt writes. "Looking back on disappointments, I am dismayed by the Administration's failure to understand and effectively address the current housing foreclosure crisis," Cardoza said in his statement.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c95cf75d23b5f6537b560ff4433ea53d56ddaf6388b8b8412 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b9b775cd690dc14c95cf75d23b5f6537b560ff4433ea53d56ddaf6388b8b8412 

JAN BREWER'S BOOK - RELITIGATING ARIZONA'S IMMIGRATION FIGHT:Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer's new book 'Scorpions for Breakfast: My Fight Against Special Interests, Liberal Media, and Cynical Politicos to Secure America's Border' comes out November 1. The Arizona Republic snagged an advance copy of the 228-page book: "She also paints a much different picture of her June 2010 Oval Office meeting with Obama than she did in media interviews after the event. At the time, Brewer described the conversation as cordial, but in the book she calls the president 'patronizing' and said 'he lectured me.'... She criticizes him for publicly mocking the state and SB 1070 during remarks he gave at this year's
 White House Correspondents dinner and says he 'just blew me off and walked away' when she tried to speak with him prior to a May 2009 commencement address at Arizona State University."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed955b0f8ed186b2810c63dfce6b6b0c6880269c332defc17d91 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed955b0f8ed186b2810c63dfce6b6b0c6880269c332defc17d91 

SNEAK PEEK - SOUTH DAKOTA REPUBLICANS TO CALL FOR INVESTIGATION OF TIM JOHNSON STAFFER MULLING NOEM CHALLENGE:South Dakota's GOP is putting out a press release later this morning that hinges on a story from the Mitchell Daily Republic, which reports that Sen. Tim Johnson staffer Matt Varilek is effectively campaigning against Kristi Noem. 'U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson [the senator's son] should immediately begin an investigation into a possible violation of federal law [the Hatch Act] that occurred this week when a senior staffer for Senator Johnson attended a campaign event as a potential candidate for federal office while still on the government payroll,' says SDGOP Executive Director
 Tony Post. The story from the rally Varilek spoke at:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed9520f6b3b1209f09d93887d74f6728ee89f99a976b7293ee72 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed9520f6b3b1209f09d93887d74f6728ee89f99a976b7293ee72 

TOP TALKER -DID RUBIO EMBELLISH HIS BIO? HOW DAMAGING WILL IT BE?Here is a tale of the tape:

.4:31 p.m. - The Washington Post goes live with a bombshell:"During his rise to political prominence, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) frequently repeated a compelling version of his family's history that had special resonance in South Florida. He was the son of exiles, he told audiences, Cuban Americans forced off their beloved island after 'a thug,' Fidel Castro, took power. But a review of documents - including naturalization papers and other official records - reveals that Rubio's dramatic account of his family saga embellishes the facts. The documents show that Rubio's parents came to the United States and were admitted for permanent residence more than 2&frac12; years before Castro's forces
 overthrew the Cuban government and took power on New Year's Day 1959."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed95f633ba19bab808972febcb069dafb7f5a6eecfd31a2df271 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed95f633ba19bab808972febcb069dafb7f5a6eecfd31a2df271 
.5:46 p.m. - Florida Democratic Party spokeswoman Brannon Jordan blasts a statement:"This news underscores that Senator Rubio has not been fully vetted by the public, and is perhaps why he has distanced himself from vice presidential talks. As a career politician, it's no surprise Senator Rubio can't back up his statements with facts."
.7:10 p.m. - Rubio releases a 197-word statement:"To suggest my family's story is embellished for political gain is outrageous. The dates I have given regarding my family's history have always been based on my parents' recollections of events that occurred over 55 years ago and which were relayed to me by them more than two decades after they happened. I was not made aware of the exact dates until very recently. What's important is that the essential facts of my family's story are completely accurate. My parents are from Cuba...They were exiled from the home country they tried to return to because they did not want to live under communism. That is an undisputed fact and to suggest otherwise
 is outrageous."
.7:55 p.m.-The Miami Herald's Marc Caputo comes to Rubio's defense:"Soto suggest Rubio serially embellished the 'dramatic' story of his parents fleeing Cuba could be a little too dramatic itself. And it might be an embellishment as well -- absent more information clearly showing Rubio has repeatedly said his parents fled Castro's Cuba.Rubio's office has told both the Washington Post, the St. Petersburg Times and The Miami Herald that his parents came to the United States prior to Castro taking power. And he has said it more than once... Rubio's inability to remember these specific dates isn't much of a surprise. Rubio is sometimes sloppy."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed9532d20e0812e6fcd58e6d61aaeb1eee3ad43e77befd86451c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed9532d20e0812e6fcd58e6d61aaeb1eee3ad43e77befd86451c 

LOOKING AHEAD - HOW DAMAGING IS THIS?This flap looks huge, but Caputo's post seems to take much of the sting out of it.No matter who else comes to Rubio's defense or whether additional exculpatory information emerges, this unquestionably reduces the likelihood (we'll see how dramatically over the next 24 hours) that Rubio gets a spot on next year's ticket and continues to be at the top of artificial shortlists. One of the most appealing things about Rubio is that he looked like a senator with little baggage who could help carry Florida. Now a cloud hangs over a central part of his political identity, and recent polling has shown that he would not necessarily be a game-change in the Sunshine
 State. The Post story will also embolden critics in the GOP who whisper about other shortcomings.

SCORE WONDERS:Thearticle grew out of Manuel Roig-Franzia's reporting for a forthcoming biography of Rubio, which the tagline of the story says is scheduled to be published NEXT YEAR by Simon & Schuster.What other explosive material, if any, will Manuel get into his book? We expect this bolt from the blue could make access (official and unofficial) much harder to get (a moot point if he's already wrapped up much of his reporting), but Manuel is the Post's former Miami bureau chief and knows how to navigate Little Havana. You might remember him as the Postie who got punched in the face after he cursed at his editor. Fisticuffs:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed95ae945c26d0a94c1c811455bb8e5c557b0d4763c0cd3c8fdf 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed95ae945c26d0a94c1c811455bb8e5c557b0d4763c0cd3c8fdf . Bio:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed956ec635b7f6eb7bb608b7bbf2ae2f68facd0d31e03c0e706f 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed956ec635b7f6eb7bb608b7bbf2ae2f68facd0d31e03c0e706f .

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:"I've got a lot of brothers from another mother out there!" - Herman Cain explaining why he wasn't offended when Rick Perry called him "brother" during Tuesday's debate
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed95f20a045795f614032c238fac1836c1aa9300e14d09c2cb4b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=deefe318892bed95f20a045795f614032c238fac1836c1aa9300e14d09c2cb4b 

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