Subject: from the dept of optimism
From: "Alexander Snyder-Mackler" <[email-masked]>
To: "ted kaufman" <[email-masked]>, "BB" <[email-masked]>, "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>, "Eric Schwerin" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2011 09:42:27 -0500

Just how big a hill do the Republicans have to climb to win the White
House<http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/white-house/>in 2012?
Consider this: In 2008, Barack
Obama <http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/barack-obama/> beat John
McCain<http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/john-mccain/>in the
electoral vote by a tally of 365-173. So, if, on Election Day next
year, Mr. Obama <http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/barack-obama/> loses
Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Indiana and New Mexico —
a whopping 95 electoral votes from states he carried in 2008 — he would
still win.

Just barely, with a right-on-the-button 270, but he’d win.

That’s how big a hill.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/dec/11/curl-election-2012-by-the-numbers-take-2/print/

*ANALYSIS/OPINION:*

Just how big a hill do the Republicans have to climb to win the White House
in 2012? Consider this: In 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain in the
electoral vote by a tally of 365-173. So, if, on Election Day next year,
Mr. Obama loses Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Indiana
and New Mexico — a whopping 95 electoral votes from states he carried in
2008 — he would still win.

Just barely, with a right-on-the-button 270, but he'd win.

That's how big a hill.

Sure, Virginia and Indiana and North Carolina are all leaning hard toward
the Republicans, but according to a mash of recent polls, Florida and Ohio
are currently dead heats between Mr. Obama and Mitt Romney, long the
Republican front-runner.

But hold on: The unemployment rate in Florida is hovering around 11
percent; in Ohio, it's more than 9 percent. Potential voters say the
economy is the No. 1 issue in 2012, and Mr. Obama scores horribly on the
economy; only 41 percent of Florida voters say Mr. Obama deserves
re-election. So maybe that scenario — the president losing all seven of
those states — really is in play.

Yet the electoral math gets interesting in other places that, unlike
elections past, definitely will be in play in 2012. Pennsylvania, for one.
There, half say Mr. Obama doesn't deserve re-election. His job approval
rating has been in the mid-40s for months, and the White House is so
freaked out about the situation that they sent the president to Vice
President Joseph R. Biden's hometown of Scranton (when the veep was out of
the country). It was the president's 16th trip to the state, the eighth in
2011 alone.

Pennsylvania is trending Republican. Last year, Pat Toomey won the open
U.S. Senate seat, and the GOP also picked up five new House seats and took
the governor's mansion.

Then, consider this, from the New York Times, no less: "All pretense of
trying to win a majority of the white working class has been effectively
jettisoned in favor of cementing a center-left coalition made up, on the
one hand, of voters who have gotten ahead on the basis of educational
attainment — professors, artists, designers, editors, human resources
managers, lawyers, librarians, social workers, teachers and therapists —
and a second, substantial constituency of lower-income voters who are
disproportionately African-American and Hispanic."

Hmm. Doesn't sound like Scranton.

"What this means is mostly ceding Midwestern states with large 'white
working-class' populations like Ohio (18) and Pennsylvania (20), and
concentrating on Southern and Western ones, such as Colorado (9), Nevada
(6), North Carolina (15) and Virginia (13). But he needs some Midwestern
states, too: Were he to lose Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10) and
Wisconsin (10) along with Ohio and Pennsylvania, that would leave him with
only 267 electoral votes."

And there's the real fear: Mr. Obama really could lose all those states —
Iowa, Michigan (Mr. Romney's home state), Minnesota and Wisconsin. George
W. Bush's "brain" Karl Rove started working Wisconsin hard in 2000, even
harder in 2004. Mr. Obama smooshed Mr. McCain there is 2008, by 56 percent
to 42 percent, but Sen. John Kerry barely won the state over Mr. Bush in
2004, 49.7 percent to 49.3 percent. In 2000, former Vice President Al Gore
and Mr. Bush were separated by just 5,708 votes. Wisconsin's 10 electoral
votes are fully in play in 2012.

And how much would the GOP like to win Nevada, home state of nemesis Harry
Reid, majority leader of the Senate? The unemployment rate there is nearly
14 percent, and Mr. Obama famously chastised corporate-jet owners to stop
flying off to Las Vegas for junkets. The city has been crushed and
foreclosures are among the top in the nation. Mr. Reid has the unions
wrapped around his pinkie, but the anger there is palpable. Another six
electoral votes in play.

And New Hampshire? Boy, they hate being played as rubes up there in the
"Live Free or Die" state. Mr. Bush won there in 2000, but lost in 2004. Mr.
Obama crushed Mr. McCain by 10 percentage points in 2008, but one thing
they don't like is being played as fools. How's that hopey-changey thing
working out? Not so good.

Team Obama most fears Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. He's
killing them in New Hampshire fundraising, with nearly double the take of
the president. Ditto Nevada. And he's crushing in Florida too — $2.5
million to Mr. Obama's $1.1 million.

But when looking at national trends, keep this in mind: Only one Democrat
in the past 100 years has won the White House without winning Ohio. In
2008, Mr. Obama lost the middle but carried voters with graduate degrees
and incomes of more than $200,000 and the working class with no high school
diplomas and salaries of less than $50,000.

He might lose both edges in 2012, as well as the middle, again. If you lose
the 20 percent on the low, and the 20 percent on the high, plus the 60
percent in the middle, what's left: Zippy the Chimp.

• *Joseph Curl covered the White House and politics for a decade for The
Washington Times. He can be reached at jcurl*@*washingtontimes.com.*

-- 

Alexander Snyder-Mackler
(302) 598-867