Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Did anybody win last night's debate?--OFA celebrates 'promise kept' on Iraq--Montana Dems to file complaint against Rehberg--Webb-Edgington calling around about Davis's seat--Matheson wants to stay in House
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2011 06:33:02 -0600

By James Hohmann (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

NEWT WAS THE MAIN TARGET, BUT NO ONE DOMINATED THE STAGE:"To the contrary, the evening - the last of an astonishing 13 debates to be held in 2011 - highlighted just how much the candidates are entering the new year defined as much by their vulnerabilities as for their assets," John Harris and Jonathan Martin write from Sioux City. "At the very moment when one or two candidates are usually beginning to surge, in the same way a distance runner has a finishing kick, this pack seems collectively slouching to the finish line."
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HOW IT'S PLAYING -

"FINAL PRE-CAUCUS DEBATE IS A TAMER AFFAIR,"is the headline in the Des Moines Register.
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"A FORCED SENSE OF RESTRAINT HUNG IN THE AIR,"Jeff Zeleny andJim Rutenberg write on A1 of the New York Times. They say the candidates were delivering their closing arguments:
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IOWA NICE:"Sure, Michele Bachmann went after Newt Gingrich on Fannie and Freddie, and she sparred with Ron Paul on Iran. But those exchanges were notable because they were exceptions to what was otherwise a very friendly debate between Republican candidates who have been tearing each other apart in interviews and on the airwaves over the past several weeks," Stephen Hayes writes in The Weekly Standard. "Newt Gingrich opened the debate by wishing everyone a Merry Christmas - a sentiment that seemed to set the tone for a mostly conciliatory affair."
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ON THE DEFENSIVE: Gingrich was challenged on electability and Romney was pushed for flip-flops on social issues. "The questions highlighted the choice GOP voters will face as they start the process of selecting a presidential nominee in January: whether Romney can be trusted to lead a party that has become more conservative in recent years versus whether Gingrich has the discipline and consistency to carry the Republican banner," Dan Balz and Phil Rucker write in The Washington Post.
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NOTHING TO LOSE:"Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum had basically nothing to lose, and behold: They lost nothing and banged up the frontrunners," Slate's Dave Weigel blogged. "Mitt Romney only took heat in the final round, and he really did take it. If Santorum or Gingrich wants to argue that Romney is a convenient conservative who doesn&#39;t even understand why government has to be challenged fundamentally, they have new quotes, new evidence. Maybe it takes a second debate to find an opponent&#39;s weaknesses. Gingrich was unflappable in last weekend&#39;s debate, but kept giving worse and worse answers as Bachmann and Paul pushed him tonight. Bachmann especially."
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SIGHTS SET ON OBAMA:"Acting on their best behavior, [Romney and Gingrich] essentially called a cease-fire ...using the last full-scale presidential debate of the year mainly to assail President Obama," Mark Z. Barabak and Seema Mehta write in the Los Angeles Times.
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A TWO-MAN RACE?"It reinforced the notion that this is a battle between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich unless one of the other five can make a dramatic late run," the Associated Press' Charles Babington assessed.
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8 TAKEAWAYS from Maggie Haberman and Alex Burns:

1.Gingrich had two different debates in one night.The first debate was rough for him. The second was a more familiar experience.

2. Romney is not, in fact, back in the frontrunner's perch. But he assumed that position for the evening, and apparently feels more comfortable in it.

3. Ron Paul is being taken seriously by his peers.

4.Michele Bachmann shielded Romney. This may or may not have been her actual goal.

5.In most of the presidential debates, Romney could count the number of friends he's had on stage on one finger or less. That changed [last night], as several of Romney's conservative rivals - including candidates who have attacked him in other settings - focused their criticism on Gingrich.

6.Rick Perry's sticking with an appeal to evangelicals.

7. Jon Huntsman probably didn't have to leave New Hampshire.

8. This was not the Fox News debate people were expecting.And after the Dec. 10 debate, political-watchers were prepared for a smackdown. Instead, the 120-minute affair was more of a let-down."
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KEY EXCHANGES -The AP's Beth Fouhy identifies six key exchanges: Perry turns to Tebow. Romney links Gingrich attack to Obama. Paul, Bachmann go toe to toe on Iran. Romney hits Obama on Iran drone. Gingrich defends Freddie. Bachmann mixes it up with Gingrich over whether she makes factual statements.
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GAME CLOCK - GINGRICH HAD MOST CAMERA TIME:Gingrich, 14:45; Romney, 13:03; Paul, 11:40; Bachmann, 10:26; Santorum, 8:01; Huntsman, 8; Perry, 6:59. The University of Minnesota's Smart Politics has also tabulated total face time of possession in ALL of this year's debates:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d9bd7c774fc29ad3402f932774e63281d45a9048458da83c74 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d9bd7c774fc29ad3402f932774e63281d45a9048458da83c74 .

WHO WON?

ROMNEY, says Time's MARK HALPERIN:"Recovered his presidential demeanor from the early debates. Smart, focused, big-brained and cool, with no attacks on his fellow GOPers. Repeatedly took process questions and turned them into opportunities to sell his record and contrast with President Obama (most notably on Iran and the US drone). Along with Santorum, owned the economy as an issue. If strong performances from Bachmann, Santorum and Paul halt the Gingrich momentum, Romney could ride this debate to an Iowa victory - and the nomination."Mark's reportcard:Romney, A-; Bachmann, B+; Santorum, B; Gingrich, B-; Paul, B-; Huntsman, C-; Perry, C-.
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BACHMANN, says The Weekly Standard's BILL KRISTOL:"Bachmann&#39;s strong performance tonight may be the beginning of a process where she begins to separate herself from her two current competitors for fourth place, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum...If enough Iowans were watching, and if they agree that Michele was impressively tough and convincingly true-blue conservative, I suspect we could see a Bachmann surge in the remaining two and a half weeks-perhaps enough of one to push her into the first tier." He predicts she'll finish second behind Gingrich:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d91aaec44c60cf2904f9306201916229b4c36880ce112fba4e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d91aaec44c60cf2904f9306201916229b4c36880ce112fba4e .

The Iowa Republican's KEVIN HALLagrees, calling Bachmann the OVERALL WINNER. "She exposed some real flaws in the records and stances of two of her biggest opponents, Gingrich and Paul. Bachmann was throwing haymakers throughout and most of them landed."
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ABC'S AMY WALTER - Winners:Romney, Bachmann, Paul.Losers: Perry, Fox moderators.Meh: Gingrich.
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CBS' LUCY MADISON - Winners:Romney, Bachmann, Perry, Paul.Losers: Santorum, Huntsman.
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The Fix's CHRIS CILLIZZA: Winners: Bachmann, Perry, Romney.Losers: Paul, Gingrich.
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538's NATE SILVER grades (based on style/strategy): Romney A-, Perry A-, Bachmann A-, Santorum B+, Gingrich B, Huntsman B-, Paul C.
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WHO LOST? - RON PAUL hurt himself by limiting his upside potential.The Wall Street Journal:"The Thursday debate may end up blunting Mr. Paul&#39;s charge due to an extended exchange over Iran&#39;s nuclear ambitions," Jonathan Weisman and Sara Murray wrote in their mainbar. "Mr. Paul, an ardent libertarian, warned the drum beat for military action against Iran threatened to push the United States into a quagmire.' That&#39;s how we got into that useless war in Iraq and lost so much,' he said. That triggered sharp responses from his rivals, who echoed conservative public opinion. Ms. Bachmann said she has 'never heard a more dangerous answer on foreign policy.'"
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National Review editor RICH LOWRY agrees:"Almost everyone had a strong night, with the exception of Ron Paul, who may have finally gone too far on foreign policy."
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** As the reelection campaign celebrates withdrawal from Iraq, three candidates release new ads and a Kentucky Republican angles to run for Davis' seat, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

COMING THIS MORNING -

NIKKI HALEY TO ENDORSE ROMNEY:"South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, one of the most sought-after remaining Republican endorsements, will come out for Mitt Romney Friday morning," JMart reports. "Haley will offer her formal endorsement on Fox and Friends, giving Romney an important boost ahead of South Carolina&#39;s primary next month. Romney is heading to South Carolina this weekend, where he&#39;s likely to be joined by Haley at town hall meetings on the coast."
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TWO STATEHOUSE LEADERS TO ENDORSE GINGRICH:New Hampshire House speaker William O&#39;Brien and Iowa Speaker of the House Kraig Paulsen will endorse Gingrich today in Iowa, the Union Leader scooped. Then the three will fly to New Hampshire for another announcement event.
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WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO:Romney meets with steelworkers in Sioux City this morning before flying to Greenville, South Carolina, for an afternoon rally at a fire station. Perry's bus tour stops in Cherokee and Storm Lake. Bachmann's push to get to all 99 counties takes her from Sioux City to Le Mars, Orange City, Rock Rapids, Sibley, Primghar, Cherokee and Storm Lake. Santorum has a house party tonight in Sioux City. Set your Tivo: Paul will be on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno.
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"WELCOME HOME" - OBAMA CAMPAIGN WEB VIDEO CELEBRATES END OF IRAQ WAR:Chicago posted a three-minute web video overnight to commemorate the formal end of the war in Iraq, a key "promise kept" of the 2008 campaign. It starts with Obama on Charlie Rose in November 2004 and goes through his speech at Fort Bragg. Watch:
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ROMNEY'S NEW AD - "MORAL RESPONSIBILITY":"We have a moral responsibility not to spend more than we take," Romney says as the spot begins. "We can't keep buying and spending and passing on debts to our kids. And I'll stop it. My test for the federal government is this: is this program so critical, so important, that it's worth borrowing money from China to pay for it?" Ashley Parker in the NYT: "The 30-second ad, which went on the air in Iowa on Thursday, features images of young children and their parents, as footage of Mr. Romney at previous campaign stops serves as the narration." Video:
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SANTORUM'S FIRST AD - "SING, SING, SING":TheformerPennsylvania senator started running his first statewide ad in Iowa yesterday. Buy size wasn't disclosed. The script: "He&#39;s Rick Santorum. A loving husband, a devoted father, homeschooler and a man of deep faith. He wrote the law that banned partial birth abortions. Overhauled America&#39;s welfare system. And no one has done more to protect America from Iran&#39;s growing threat than Rick Santorum. It&#39;s no wonder Palin, Beck and Huckabee are singing his praises. Now it&#39;s your turn to join the fight." He's also dropping a mail piece today that highlights praise from Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d9f7d2866652f038a592ece74b0c02f5fec48a1252ab846cf0 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d9f7d2866652f038a592ece74b0c02f5fec48a1252ab846cf0 . Melinda Henneberger writes her profile of Santorum in the Post's candidate series today:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d94b501dfa09b08cf7d61108132728c26a6f86896cf6e7343c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d94b501dfa09b08cf7d61108132728c26a6f86896cf6e7343c . An independent Santorum super PAC - the Red, White, and Blue Fund - is spending $200,000 to air this ad:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d967f29adb4a0a74a6c9541fb12f8d4efb67e4465cc3b5f614 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d967f29adb4a0a74a6c9541fb12f8d4efb67e4465cc3b5f614 . Watch the official Santorum ad:
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http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d90e2b80ae6d69e50bdd3d6d7962c2cc950c6da268e32d1790 .

PERRY'S NEW AD - ROMNEY AND GINGRICH ARE "POLITICAL INSIDERS":"The ad cites Mr. Gingrich's support for raising the federal debt ceiling while he was speaker of the House and Mr. Romney's raising taxes on business while he was governor of Massachusetts," Richard Oppel Jr. writes on the Times' Caucus blog. "Notably absent from the commercial, part of Mr. Perry's multimillion-dollar ad blitz in Iowa, is any mention of the man who has moved into second place in this state according to several polls: Ron Paul." Video:
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EXPECTATIONS GAME - PERRY SAYS HE'LL GO ON IF FOURTH IN IOWA:"You'll still see me in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida," Perry said of a fourth place finish during an interview on Fox News' Your World With Cavuto, per ABC. "Winning Iowa is obviously a help to anybody. You want to win here, but you don't have to." The money quote from the interview: "They want to touch you, feel you, and sniff on ya."
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EIGHT GINGRICH STORIES YOU SHOULD READ BEFORE YOUR CABLE HIT:

D'OH - IOWA ENDORSEMENT ROLLOUT HIGHLIGHTS PROBLEMS:"Newt Gingrich's campaign released a list of 55 supporters in Iowa [Thursday], but the announcement is filled with errors and inaccuracies," The Iowa Republican's Kevin Hall writes. "Along with several misspellings, the campaign claims State Senator David Johnson from Osceola County is one of 14 elected officials who endorsed Gingrich... Johnson says the Gingrich campaign reached out to him, but he made it clear his allegiance lies with Texas governor Rick Perry... Other errors in the press release include misspelling Iowa House representative Josh Byrnes' name as 'Josh Byres', former congressional candidate Pat Bertroche as 'Pat
 Batroche,' and claiming Charlie Gruschow is the 'Tea Party of Iowa Founder.' Gruschow is the founder of the Tea Party of America. He is also a Gingrich campaign staffer."
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IOWA GOVERNOR - UNSURE OF GINGRICH'S DISCIPLINE:"Whether he has the discipline and the focus [to be president], I DON'T KNOW," Terry Branstad told the Associated Press yesterday.
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BAIN OF GINRICH - NEWT APOLOGIZES FOR SLAMMING ROMNEY'S BUSINESS ACUMEN:'Frankly, he got under my skin," Gingrich said on Fox News after the debate of his criticism from earlier in the week. He called it a 'very brief moment' ... 'He got that round,' Gingrich said. 'If you were scoring rounds in boxing, I&#39;d give that round to Mitt.'"
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NATURE AND NURTURE - GINGRICH TALKS ABOUT HOMOSEXUALITY WITH REGISTER EDIT BOARD:"Gingrich on Thursday said he believes homosexuality stems from a 'combination of genetics and environment.' 'I don&#39;t believe in genetic determinism, and I don&#39;t believe there&#39;s any great evidence of genetic determinism,' Gingrich said before The Des Moines Register&#39;s editorial board. 'There are propensities. Are you more likely to do this, or are you more likely to do that? But that doesn&#39;t mean it&#39;s definitional,'" according to CNN's write-up. 'Calling himself a 'traditional, classic conservative,' Gingrich said he believed marriage should be between a man and a woman and insisted he
 would not have repealed the controversial 'Don&#39;t Ask, Don&#39;t Tell' policy in the military."
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WORKING WIKIPEDIA - GINGRICH COMMS DIRECTOR SUGGESTS EDITS:Gingrich communications director Joe DeSantis wrote in to suggest changes for the former speaker's online biography," Jedd Rosche scoops. "At issue is whether parts of Gingrich's Wikipedia biography and introduction are too negative...The opening paragraph mentions his being disciplined by the House Ethics Committee, his resignation from Congress and his later career as a 'highly paid political consultant.' DeSantis hops into the discussion and offers his suggestions." Read them here:
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"DON'T DO THIS" - JON STEWART WARNS REPUBLICANS NOT TO VOTE FOR GINGRICH:"On [Thursday's] Daily Show, Jon Stewart used his last show of the year to deliver an impassioned plea to the people who have made Newt Gingrich the latest frontrunner for the Republican nomination; it boiled down to, simply, 'don&#39;t do this,'" per Gawker. Six-minute clip:
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FUNDRAISING - ADELSON DENIES COMMITTING $20 MILLION TO NEWT SUPER PAC:"Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson has discussed directing $20 million to an outside group backing Newt Gingrich's presidential campaign, multiple sources told POLITICO - a good sign for allies who have been pushing the former speaker's longtime billionaire supporters to sign on," Maggie Haberman and Ken Vogel write. "But Adelson called POLITICO Thursday to challenge the characterization that he had committed $20 million."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d94ee22e293a4c4fc17fd0241f82858b0b36d528935a07fab9 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d94ee22e293a4c4fc17fd0241f82858b0b36d528935a07fab9 

FOR THE WATER COOLER - "FBI CONSIDERED STING AIMED AT GINGRICH IN 1997":"It is a curious case in the annals of the FBI: The bureau considered a sting operation against then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich after sifting through allegations from a notorious arms dealer that a $10 million bribe might get Congress to lift the Iraqi arms embargo," James Grimaldi writes in The Washington Post. "The FBI ended up calling off the operation in June 1997. It decided there was no evidence that Gingrich knew anything about the conversations the arms dealer was secretly recording with a man who said he was acting on behalf of Gingrich's then-wife, Marianne, according to people with knowledge of the
 investigation."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d923f5de7793dd9a6b0ee3c5c6fceb7e441b1d6ae3facb8f47 
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WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS UP TO:At 2:10 p.m. at National Harbor, the President will deliver remarks at the 71st General Assembly of the Union for Reform Judaism.

SHUTDOWN AVERTED:Congressional leaders finalized a deal last night to fund the government through next fall. Democrat signed off on a $1 trillion spending bill to keep the government funded through next fall, and that plan is expected to be approved by the full House and Senate on Friday.

REMINDER FOR DEMOCRATS - CLASS WARFARE IS RISKY:"More Americans say it is important that the federal government enact policies that grow the economy and increase equality of opportunity than say the same about reducing the income and wealth gap between the rich and the poor," Gallup reports this morning.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d90f683da4cce8c608a15a1e6c3affc5964afdb9180823d662 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d90f683da4cce8c608a15a1e6c3affc5964afdb9180823d662 

KENTUCKY HOUSE - DAVIS RETIRES:Kentucky GOP Rep. Geoff Davis announced unexpectedly last night that he won't run for a fifth term in 2012. The district is safe for Republicans: "Despite the fact that there are more registered Democrats in the 4th District, which runs from the suburbs of Louisville, through Northern Kentucky to Ashland, the GOP has an advantage because the district has traditionally elected Republicans," the Courier-Journal explains. "State Sen. Ernie Harris, R-Crestwood, said he expects the nominee to come out of Boone, Kenton or Campbell counties, the populous heart of the district just across the Ohio river from Cincinnati."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d9bd78765843e2ab8e2a8c12821e855861eac6cb76a25afa73 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d9bd78765843e2ab8e2a8c12821e855861eac6cb76a25afa73 .

A plugged-in Kentucky Republican tells Score that Alecia Webb-Edgington was burning up the phone last night making calls to gauge support for a run. She's close to Davis so there's some speculation that, if he was going to anoint someone, it could be her. Trey Grayson, the former Secretary of State who Rand Paul upset in the Senate primary last year, recently moved his family to Cambridge and now directs Harvard's Institute of Politics. If he gave up his job, he risks another humiliating defeat at the hands of conservative primary voters.

UTAH - MATHESON RUNNING FOR REELECTION TO HOUSE: "Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson said Thursday he decided to run for Congress in the newly created 4th Congressional District after the Utah Legislature 'took my current district and basically blew it up,'" the Salt Lake Tribune reports. "His decision means he will be running in a district where he doesn't live, but one that is seen as more favorable to Democrats and contains large swaths of his current district. Matheson said that 85 percent of the new district is concentrated in Salt Lake County and consists of 'areas I grew up in my whole life along the Wasatch Front, and I represented the majority of those communities in my career in
 Congress.' Matheson had previously ruled out a challenge to Sen. Orrin Hatch but had been weighing whether to run for governor or seek re-election to Congress."
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http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d9cb13fcd0dbe042b5b0386bc46e2b62c18110ad4a97b23769 

The RGA's gain is the NRCC's loss. Matheson remains a powerful name and will be tougher to beat than other Democrats...even if he's beatable. An NRCC spokesman notes that McCain won the new district with 55.6 in 2008, and Bush carried it in 2004 with 66 percent: "Only 32.9% percent of the district is Matheson's current constituency. And this small piece of his current base will be overwhelmed by more than 460,000 new voters Matheson needs to introduce himself to." Matheson's formal announcement (on his web site):
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d9c894e8eaad9b3568380c69b585be40920bb9cce7cc22d521 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d9c894e8eaad9b3568380c69b585be40920bb9cce7cc22d521 .

MONTANA SENATE - DEMS TO FILE COMPLAINT AGAINST REHBERG:The Montana Democratic Party will announce later today that they are filing a formal complaint against a recent Franked mailpiece sent by Congressman Denny Rehberg. Here are the flyer images:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d953145f4e39242c379ec1f0be20b2cffe8351828ec425fd6b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d953145f4e39242c379ec1f0be20b2cffe8351828ec425fd6b  and
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d967542d390b7c63314ebedfb2d33c8a1ca5f0ac6e2808008e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d967542d390b7c63314ebedfb2d33c8a1ca5f0ac6e2808008e . The exhibits:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d907bd96eadc7ce16ea900a70d7967b00fd3dfe61b9b255608 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d907bd96eadc7ce16ea900a70d7967b00fd3dfe61b9b255608 . The three-page complaint:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d931d9002167a9711dc2c096a432e7746b2bc514f4172a6832 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=e9c78d69eb79c1d931d9002167a9711dc2c096a432e7746b2bc514f4172a6832 .

EMILY'S LIST - GABBARD AND GRISHAM GO ON THE LIST:The women's group will announce today that Tulsi Gabbard, a candidate for Congress in Hawaii's second congressional district, and Michelle Lujan Grisham, a candidate for Congress in New Mexico's first congressional district, have been put "On the List." This gets them in front of members to help with fundraising and is a step along the path to a full endorsement.

ILLINOIS HOUSE - COURT UPHOLDS DEMOCRATS' MAP:"A federal court panel today upheld the Democratic-drawn redistricting of Illinois&#39; congressional boundaries, rejecting a Republican challenge that contended the new map was illegal," per the Chicago Tribune. "The court agreed with the GOP complaint that the map 'was a blatant political move to increase the number of Democratic congressional seats' ... Still, the court concluded the Republican challenge failed to present 'a workable standard by which to evaluate such claims.'"
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CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:"I hope I am the Tim Tebow of the Iowa caucuses." - Rick Perry at last night's debate
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