Subject: POLITICO’s Morning Score: Romney poised for big win in Florida--Contest: guess the margin!--Gingrich raised $5 million in January--Dem leads in Oregon special early voting--Rubio raises $563K--Counties, numbers to watch in the Sunshine State--Nevada caucus preview
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2012 08:24:22 -0600

By James Hohmann (
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked] ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)

ST. LOUIS-Good morning from Missouri, where there's a primary one week from today. Rick Santorum campaigned here yesterday because Newt Gingrich won't be on the ballot, and he thinks a strong showing against Mitt Romney could give him momentum and money going into Super Tuesday:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6aaf203b1cead858ceb926c1150579e55d3a71a3f1635da83298556b6cc41f64 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6aaf203b1cead858ceb926c1150579e55d3a71a3f1635da83298556b6cc41f64 . [I'm catching a flight to Vegas in a few hours.]

GINGRICH RAISED $5 MILLION IN JANUARY, according to a tweet from his spokesman in the last few minutes.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6aaf203b1cead8580b4cedd1a1c00d1e017813527ddee72ed1d3e0a162432f17 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6aaf203b1cead8580b4cedd1a1c00d1e017813527ddee72ed1d3e0a162432f17 

EXCLUSIVE-FloridaSen. Marco Rubio&#39;s leadership PAC raised an impressive $563,390 in its first four months from over 3,000 donors. A report being filed today with the Federal Election Commission will show that the leadership PAC starts the year with over $275,000 in the bank.

UNCONFIRMED NBC REPORT - IOWA GOP CHAIR TO STEP DOWN:"Matt Strawn is expected to step down as Chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa soon, sources tell NBC News. The exact timing and reason for the anticipated resignation is unknown. Questions were raised about Strawn&#39;s continuation as Chairman of the GOP after the final Iowa Caucus votes came in earlier this month." Alex Moe's item:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d1451a70e06379e474346013fff1a87b894029d405e11da0c451b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d1451a70e06379e474346013fff1a87b894029d405e11da0c451b .

** As Nevada readies for its moment, reporters write Florida pre-mortems and Newt can't catch a break, here's POLITICO's Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

ELECTION DAY IN FLORIDA-Polls close at 7 p.m. local time in both the Eastern and Central Time Zones, which means the networks won't call the race until 8 p.m. ET (after polls close in the Panhandle).

THE MIAMI HERALD'S HEADLINE - "NEWT GINGRICH LOOKS LIKE A GONNER IN FLA. - BUT BY HOW MUCH?""At least 632,000 Republicans have already cast ballots. So Gingrich could be losing by as many as 60,000 votes before the polls even open Tuesday, according to an analysis of early-voter surveys and the averages of all the major statewide polls applied to the pool of already cast ballots. 'I think Gingrich could be losing more to Mitt Romney - like 75,000ish,' said Randy Nielsen, a top Florida political consultant for the Republican Party of Florida who's not affiliated with any presidential candidate. 'This election isn't going to be pretty for Newt Gingrich. He didn't have a program to get early
 and absentee votes, and Gingrich is losing to Mitt Romney in every region except for North Florida. But he's not winning there enough to make up the difference.'" More from Marc Caputo's curtain-raiser:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d14510c14fbe34f122282065303bd17ad5925b7ecdb0a3eed6bf1 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d14510c14fbe34f122282065303bd17ad5925b7ecdb0a3eed6bf1 .

WHAT FLORIDIANS IN THE STATE'S OTHER NINE MEDIA MARKETS ARE SEEING THIS MORNING -

THE SOUTH FLORIDA SUN-SENTINEL -"In the final 72 hours of the campaign, Gingrich made 14 stops and Romney eight - all in an attempt to get Florida&#39;s most valuable political commodity: free exposure on local television news shows. Each started in Jacksonville and fanned across Republican strongholds in northern and central Florida."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d1451daa960771f290d54a001856c5c1635ed7fd79124969ec6ea 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d1451daa960771f290d54a001856c5c1635ed7fd79124969ec6ea 

PALM BEACH POST - "ON EVE OF PRIMARY, IT'S FREDDIE MAC ATTACK VS. REAGAN'S RIGHT JAB":
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d145175d3fdc1c6e251e49a6a4950d135b089b174dfd79bfdbf92 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d145175d3fdc1c6e251e49a6a4950d135b089b174dfd79bfdbf92 

NAPLES DAILY NEWS - "GINGRICH: TUESDAY VOTE BETWEEN 'PEOPLE POWER' AND 'MONEY POWER'":
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d145144f0dca7a6b6e1c58f3472d39b2f05753527acf644693436 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d145144f0dca7a6b6e1c58f3472d39b2f05753527acf644693436 

PENSACOLA NEWS-JOURNAL - "GINGRICH VIES FOR PENSACOLA'S CONSERVATIVES":
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d145169816cf5062b708cf1413dcc390249af2b889030ceb2f88c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d145169816cf5062b708cf1413dcc390249af2b889030ceb2f88c 

FLORIDA TIMES-UNION - "JOBS MAIN TOPIC AT JACKSONVILLE RALLY FOR MITT ROMNEY":
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d14515a997e75ea1b3e8dc9f127f2f14dba5805ff49593705ae69 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d14515a997e75ea1b3e8dc9f127f2f14dba5805ff49593705ae69 

COUNTIES TO FOLLOW-Charlie Mahtesianidentifies nine of Florida's 67 counties and explains what to pay attention to in each: Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Hillsborough, Brevard, Orange, Duval, Lee, Sumter, and Escambia. Must-read:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d145186b8a04e0186d5847d95fd51d6848cab06e0e7ee1b4979bb 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d145186b8a04e0186d5847d95fd51d6848cab06e0e7ee1b4979bb .

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH from Reid Epstein-
MITT'S MARGIN: Gingrich needs a close race more than Romney needs a blowout victory.NEWT AND WOMEN:Even though the Romney campaign has stayed away from the divorce story, Romney and his campaign haven't been subtle about highlighting the Romney family.HISPANIC REPUBLICANS:Romney has the good fortune in Florida that his tough anti-illegal immigration positions probably won't hurt him among Puerto Ricans, who are U.S. citizens, and Cubans, who for decades because of the political situation in their homeland have been exempted from the immigration policy that applies to all other newcomers.THE PANHANDLE:If Gingrich remains as strong among evangelicals and tea party voters as in South Carolina,
 it will show up here.SANTORUM'S PERFORMANCE:Santorum continues to be the favorite of many evangelical voters here, a not insignificant population along the Interstate 4 corridor, but Gingrich has continued his calls for the under-funded ex-senator to leave the race and consolidate the non-Romney opposition.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d14513eaae39e70a2ac6e808c6097409d9e714b9f7f4b04cf50b0 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d14513eaae39e70a2ac6e808c6097409d9e714b9f7f4b04cf50b0 
ADAM SMITH SAYS THE MAP WILL GIVE INSIGHT INTO ROMNEY'S STRENGTH IN A GENERAL:"Keep an eye on Florida&#39;s electoral map tonight, and you&#39;ll see that the Republican presidential primary is a tale of two Mitt Romneys," the state's top political reporter explains in the Tampa Bay Times. "There&#39;s 2008 Mitt Romney, who campaigned as the conservative alternative to John McCain and won big in conservative northeast Florida and southwest Florida. He lost the state by 5 percentage points after McCain overwhelmingly won more moderate southeast Florida and dominated the counties along the I-4 corridor that make up about half the electorate. The Mitt Romney of 2012 largely eschews the social
 conservatism he stressed four years ago and instead focuses on his business acumen and ability to turn around the economy. Nobody calls the former Massachusetts governor the conservative alternative this year, and polls suggest he is poised to win Florida&#39;s GOP primary butdramatically redraw his electoral map of four years ago. If he succeeds and dominates areas of the state where he was weak in 2008, Romney will be well positioned to take Florida&#39;s 29 electoral votes in November."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d14516844694e67e1f425a7fcfe6e91adb63067b769753d657832 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca9956fb20d14516844694e67e1f425a7fcfe6e91adb63067b769753d657832 

FIRST LOOK AT RNC STRATEGY MEMO - WHY OBAMA WILL STRUGGLE IN FLORIDA:"It's hard to imagine Florida not being the most contested prize along the path to 270 this year," Republican National Committee political director Rick Wiley writes in a memo. "The Democrat share of overall registration has declined in each of the last 26 months, and since the 2008 election, the Democrat registration advantage has dropped by almost 30% from nearly 700,000 to fewer than 500,000 today... Florida's over-65 population is right now one of the weakest demographic groups for Obama. The most recent Quinnipiac survey shows a 38% job approval rating for the president among voters over 65... Jewish voters are
 second-guessing their support of the president in the last election... Florida's Hispanic voters have been unimpressed by the president... Foreclosures are up, property values are down, and barely a quarter of Florida voters think the country is headed in the right direction." Memo:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8dc84f56130fe40370e5a25edd40edca4e884ce4089a0ccc16 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8dc84f56130fe40370e5a25edd40edca4e884ce4089a0ccc16 . Accompanying video:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8d2f0a8b4686f20e8125248d6843c6bc6988eba8b8ec9bd42a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8d2f0a8b4686f20e8125248d6843c6bc6988eba8b8ec9bd42a .

KEY METRICS VIS-A-VIS 2008:According to the Florida Republican Party, via Adam: 503,111 absentee ballots requested - 199,132 more than in 2008. 283,259 voted early - 17,918 more than in 2008. 591,666 total votes cast - 103,271 more than in 2008. These trends suggest the total vote will be 1.5-million to 2 million.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8d6335b4e17823577a88cbd654c3f8c9e34346adf2e942177a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8d6335b4e17823577a88cbd654c3f8c9e34346adf2e942177a 

PUNDIT PREP - HOW TURNOUT WILL DIFFER FROM 2008:"In predicting turnout for 2012, keep in mind that also on the ballot on Jan. 29, 2008 was the 'Save Our Homes' Amendment One ballot initiative capping home values for property tax purposes," Adam Smith, Florida's top political reporter, explains in blog post. "That ballot initiative drove up turnout significantly, particularly in south Florida counties like Miami-Dade. Charlie Crist campaigned hard for that initiative, and his political team ... targeted Republicans not expected to vote in the primary otherwise. That was bad news for Romney - then the main conservative alternative to John McCain - because it meant a much higher number of
 moderate Republicans showed up for that primary." The blog post:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8de3f1f37844e10c705e84fb2b5d4cabc701336224a63d9831 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8de3f1f37844e10c705e84fb2b5d4cabc701336224a63d9831 . Alex Leary's longer story on Romney's early voting push:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8dba22158916816eb02bcd8e291ef6c914e18d5204fe58664b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8dba22158916816eb02bcd8e291ef6c914e18d5204fe58664b .

ROMNEY'S ULTIMATE INSULT:At his final event Monday, in The Villages, Mitt Romney ignored Newt Gingrich altogether. Instead, he led the crowd in singing America the Beautiful. After a day of blistering attacks, the move reflected a high level of confidence about a big win tonight.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8d97bd9ad5f15b219c63f09ffc886db435387ef9f3d3bbd431 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8d97bd9ad5f15b219c63f09ffc886db435387ef9f3d3bbd431 

GINGRICH THROWS THE KITCHEN SINK:"You want a war on the Catholic Church by Obama? Guess what: Romney refused to allow Catholic hospitals to have conscience in their dealing with certain circumstances," Gingrich told a crowd in Tampa, referring to abortion allowances under universal health care laws. "Romney cut off kosher food to elderly Jews on Medicare," he added. "Both of them have the same lack of concern for religious liberty." Ginger Gibson and Reid Epstein:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8d45e075d3f41a9c90a5bc2c5ec5363467855ecd495596fe03 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8d45e075d3f41a9c90a5bc2c5ec5363467855ecd495596fe03 .

CONTEST:Email your prediction for the percentage of the vote Romney, Gingrich, Santorum and Paul will pull to
mailto:[email-masked] 
[email-masked]  by 7 p.m. ET. Winner gets a free dinner. Two others will get a POLITICO T-shirt.

THE FINAL BATCH OF POLLING MAY HELP YOU FORMULATE AN ENTRY-

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING tracking through last night:Romney,39; Gingrich, 31; Santorum, 15; Paul, 11. "Our three days of tracking found very little movement in the race: Romney was at 39-40% every day, Gingrich was at 31-32% every day, Santorum was at 14-15% every day, and Paul was at 9-11% every day," per PPP pollster Tom Jensen.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8d538fda06a1015e318fc0a4a44b1a262cf1899c4ca1f86510 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8d538fda06a1015e318fc0a4a44b1a262cf1899c4ca1f86510 

SUFFOLK:Romney,47; Gingrich, 27; Santorum, 12; Paul, 9.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8db10881d99bd6875ef9e1152d948dde68a82d571b4f9c6027 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8db10881d99bd6875ef9e1152d948dde68a82d571b4f9c6027 

ROBOPOLLby Randy Nielsen of Public Concepts in West Palm Beach and Pat Bainter of Data Targeting in Gainesville (the Herald calls them two top GOP consultants in the state):Romney,40; Gingrich, 30; Santorum, 16; Paul, 8; Unsure, 7.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8d23f4e090a7976ca941c4f5d73a92abf9bc011b63b68d1a87 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dcefbc2339cbfc8d23f4e090a7976ca941c4f5d73a92abf9bc011b63b68d1a87 

NATE SILVER'S 538 FORECAST:Romney,44; Gingrich, 29.3; Santorum, 13.9; Paul, 11.2. Numbers:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7e8d901c4d6f9f12aeb494b498e63d66df001d9a7aefa88840 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7e8d901c4d6f9f12aeb494b498e63d66df001d9a7aefa88840 . Probabilities:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7e1cad20420891f6e913c36e3bfca79e30c1a4d90f9290ca53 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7e1cad20420891f6e913c36e3bfca79e30c1a4d90f9290ca53 .

NATIONAL GALLUP - ROMNEY VIEWED AS MOST PRESIDENTIAL:"Romney leads Gingrich, 59% to 39%, in U.S. registered voters&#39; perceptions that each 'has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have,'" according to Lydia Saad. "Romney also has solid advantages for being 'sincere and authentic' and able to manage the government effectively. Romney and Gingrich are about tied, however, on understanding the problems Americans face in their daily lives."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7ecec3ac73bcb68e296f7e7fbd359a5fdd419b317c00466bc9 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7ecec3ac73bcb68e296f7e7fbd359a5fdd419b317c00466bc9 

SANTORUM NIPS AT GINGRICH HEELS IN TEA PARTY STRAW POLL:Tea Party Patriots hosted a Presidential Tele Forum with Gingrich, Romney and Santorum on Sunday night. About 6,000 were on the line, and 600 voted in an automated straw poll. The results: Gingrich, 35; Santorum, 31; Romney, 18; Paul, 11.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7e16b44675b3b5b64946dd49ac15d918116da21d01a40938d9 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7e16b44675b3b5b64946dd49ac15d918116da21d01a40938d9 

CONTINUING DISSATISFACTION WITH THE GOP FIELD:"Just 46% of Republican voters have positive opinions of the GOP field, according to the latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Jan. 26-29 among 1,006 adults, including 341 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters. In early January, shortly before the New Hampshire primary, 51% gave the field excellent or good ratings while 44% rated the candidates collectively as only fair or poor."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7ec99ed7b6a1db615d5404cdbb7d050e6b44cd7a6dcf1a3789 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7ec99ed7b6a1db615d5404cdbb7d050e6b44cd7a6dcf1a3789 

WHAT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ARE UP TO TODAY:Romney holds a rally at 9:45 in Tampa and then has his election night event at the Tampa Convention Center. Gingrich has an aggressive Election Day schedule with polling stops or office visits in Orlando, Lakeland, Plant City and Celebration. His party is at the Rosen Centre Hotel in Orlando. Santorum is in Colorado and Nevada today. Paul is already in Nevada. DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz will hold an event at a Florida Senior Center in Hollywood at 9:45 to highlight Romney's ties to Damon Corporation and link him with Medicare fraud.

RUSH LIMBAUGH REMAINS UNDECIDED: "All three are possible," he told Jonathan Martin in an email last night. He's been attacking the establishment for pushing Romney, but he's also hit Gingrich for Bain bashing. He's had nice things to say about Santorum (his brother endorsed him yesterday), but he's expressed concerns about his viability on air.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7ee339ceb8ac134a4fd83a686775da3a272e4925468baf14f9 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7ee339ceb8ac134a4fd83a686775da3a272e4925468baf14f9 

GINGRICH CAN'T CATCH A BREAK -

NEEDS TO AMEND HIS FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE FORM:"A spokesman for Newt Gingrich said Monday night that the campaign will amend his financial disclosure form to include 'paycheck income' that showed up on his just-released 2010 tax return, but not on his original disclosure form when it was released in mid-2011," per the Wall Street Journal.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7ecb34e03498eb69e6f408ea939c442d3dac71c6bd1aa442e2 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7ecb34e03498eb69e6f408ea939c442d3dac71c6bd1aa442e2 

SUED BY "EYE OF THE TIGER" COMPOSER:Frank Sullivan, who composed "Eye of the Tiger" in 1982 sued Gingrich yesterday. "The suit asks for an injunction to prevent Gingrich from using the song, as well as damages and attorneys&#39; fees to be determined by the court," per the LA Times.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7eafb566911afe4f0d806545c1d85b0dc752d64b792960c88a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7eafb566911afe4f0d806545c1d85b0dc752d64b792960c88a 

SOURCES CLOSE TO NANCY REAGAN SAY HE'S TAKING HER OUT OF CONTEXT:"Calling himself 'the legitimate heir to the Reagan movement,' Newt Gingrich recently cited a 1995 speech by Nancy Reagan in which the former First Lady said that her husband 'passed on the torch' to him...NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports [that] Gingrich appears to be taking that comment out of context. Sources close to Nancy Reagan said the speech itself was written by the host at the Goldwater Organization - where Mrs. Reagan delivered the remarks - and that she was referring generally to Congress and not specifically to the former Speaker...Gingrich's claim that he was a key figure in the Reagan revolution in 1980s is
 'patently false,' added Al Hunt, executive editor of Bloomberg News, during an appearance on Mitchell's show. Hunt said that Reagan biographer Lou Cannon has contended that Gingrich had nothing to do with the 'Reagan Revolution.' 'He was a backbencher.Lou's not even sure Reagan knew who Gingrich was,' Hunt said." NBC:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7e1635c5312b62c421725125b78e39e01142b492d442130d79 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7e1635c5312b62c421725125b78e39e01142b492d442130d79 .

THE POST-FLORIDA NARRATIVE - A FIRST WAVE OF STORIES PREDICATED ON A ROMNEY WIN:

ASSOCIATED PRESS - CAN GINGRICH COME BACK A THIRD TIME?
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7ee3377657a3d95e44c15cc5a2d259015c58b3c154b556786f 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=18e38a2e3a055b7ee3377657a3d95e44c15cc5a2d259015c58b3c154b556786f 

WASHINGTON POST'S DANA MILBANK - "THE END OF THE ROAD FOR NEWT GINGRICH?"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17e19c98db0bdf4e6a98e26f10a36bb7e05bd913031cbbfa2a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17e19c98db0bdf4e6a98e26f10a36bb7e05bd913031cbbfa2a 

NATIONAL JOURNAL'S RON BROWNSTEIN - "HE'S PROBABLY GOING TO LOSE TUESDAY, BUT HE COULD EMERGE A STRONGER CONTENDER"
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17442a5f5203f8958f87d6ebab26e17f6d7645c6452c1b13ca 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17442a5f5203f8958f87d6ebab26e17f6d7645c6452c1b13ca 

WALL STREET JOURNAL - HOW MITT CAN FINISH OFF NEWT:"Those of us who believed that a primary fight would toughen Mr. Romney up have little to show for it. Far from sharpening his proposals to reach out to a GOP electorate hungry for a candidate with a bold conservative agenda, Mr. Romney has limited his new toughness to increasingly negative attacks on Mr. Gingrich&#39;s character. It&#39;s beginning to make what we all assumed was a weakness look much more like arrogance," William McGurn writes in his column today. "The most constructive way for Mr. Romney to kill off his rivals while bringing the party together is simple: Steal their best ideas."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c175c3e18e5fde075925ec318e733ee1955f46c18cec1db282e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c175c3e18e5fde075925ec318e733ee1955f46c18cec1db282e 

POLITICO - WHY GINGRICH WON'T QUIT:"Even his most bitter enemies will grant that Gingrich has self-motivational skills - a natural abundance of chutzpah to some - to spare," Alex Burns writes. "In some ways, it may even reinforce Gingrich's view of himself as a Winston Churchill-like figure - a battle-scarred war horse, viewed as over the hill by his compatriots, riding to save his country at its moment of greatest peril. The past tumultuous week is the kind of episode Gingrich himself might compare to the London Blitz or Valley Forge - though he hasn't yet, at least in front of the cameras."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17764793a7b4689cc0673f9b19fe3c0cd233f801876d8ca348 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17764793a7b4689cc0673f9b19fe3c0cd233f801876d8ca348 

NEWT DEFIANT - AT HIS RALLY IN ORLANDO LATE LAST NIGHT:"They all want to know what's going to happen after Florida, and I keep trying getting across to them: I am in this race where Ronald Reagan was in 1976. We are going to tell the truth, we're going to beat a big lie campaign with a big truth campaign, we're going to beat money power with people power, we are going to go all the way to the convention and we are going to win in Tampa."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17bf0d3652e9f039f5ab5b78f7dc2cea39f50cac3a3fc1ecf7 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17bf0d3652e9f039f5ab5b78f7dc2cea39f50cac3a3fc1ecf7 

NEXT UP - NEVADA:"Five days of nonstop Republican presidential campaigning in Nevada kicks off today with Ron Paul holding a 'campaign call to arms' rally in Henderson and Rick Santorum wooing conservative tea party members in Las Vegas before watching the Florida primary returns come in," according to a front page story in today's Las Vegas Review-Journal. "GOP front-runner Mitt Romney will roll into Las Vegas on Wednesday evening for a rally at Brady Industries... Gingrich, who appears headed for a loss to Romney in Florida, will hit the campaign trail by Thursday in Nevada as he seeks to stretch out the nomination contest through the spring...Nevada offers a proving ground for whether
 Gingrich has any staying power with Romney heavily favored to win here. Paul is a big factor, having finished No. 2 behind Romney in the 2008 GOP caucus in Nevada."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17abde527caefaedad850354c24b901c6214d61c25dd7a01ef 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17abde527caefaedad850354c24b901c6214d61c25dd7a01ef 

RON PAULhas a one-minute robo-call touting his fiscal bona fides:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c1712e0155e49e63e131614d288dd41950c6199e289fecf3fa6 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c1712e0155e49e63e131614d288dd41950c6199e289fecf3fa6 .

ADELSON DENIES PUSHING PARTY TO OFFER SPECIAL CAUCUS:"Sands Corp. Chairman Sheldon Adelson distanced himself Monday from a Clark County Republican decision to hold a special presidential caucus after sundown Saturday for observant Jews, saying through a spokesman he and his wife 'had no involvement' in the arrangement," per the Review-Journal."Adelson and his wife, Miriam, have donated $10 million to a pro-Gingrich Political Action Committee.Ron Reese, a spokesman for Adelson, said the billionaire casino mogul never suggested holding the special 7 p.m. caucus and didn&#39;t personally offer to host it at the Adelson Education Campus. The private school in Summerlin was named after the
 couple because they are generous donors."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17e2f701730d97f9fe976f717a91fb704d874840ba4f10a92e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17e2f701730d97f9fe976f717a91fb704d874840ba4f10a92e 

JON RALSTON HOPES SILVER STATE DOESN'T BOTCH ITS BIG MOMENT:"This should be a time of glory for the state but instead we have the Amy 'Should I stay or should I go' Tarkanian chairmanship, we have an extra caucus at a school named for the man (Sheldon Adelson) whose family has given $10 million to boost Newt Gingrich and we have a prescription for chaos and possibly contested results that should be available to ravenous East Coast media outlets shortly before 'Meet the Press' airs the day after," the Las Vegas Sun's top political reporter laments in a column.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c178500d2045d3c2f70b001cf7053e12b88052b664daedafe2f 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c178500d2045d3c2f70b001cf7053e12b88052b664daedafe2f 

EXPECTATIONS MANAGEMENT -

SHOT - GINGRICH SPOKESMAN LOWERS EXPECTATIONS:"Gingrich campaign spokesman R.C. Hammond told CNN Monday that Michigan and Nevada -- two states that Romney won during his unsuccessful 2008 presidential campaign -- will be difficult political terrain for the former House speaker come February. 'The toughest one is Nevada,' Hammond said. As for Michigan, he said: 'If we are looking at the six February states right now and we are going to rank them, we are not putting Michigan first.'" Peter Hamby:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17d332b004ca6fc5f07f768031898a08eb0cb9b4385edabee8 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=42330da347e51c17d332b004ca6fc5f07f768031898a08eb0cb9b4385edabee8 .

CHASER - GINGRICH RAISES THEM:"With your help, we are going to win a decisive victory tomorrow," he said at the close of his rally in in Orlando last night.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34adc43de0a98cfb4de7d163b95cc0770f27af81b38ba210248e 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34adc43de0a98cfb4de7d163b95cc0770f27af81b38ba210248e 

THE WILDCARD SURROGATE -'If he finishes second, I would consider that a win.' - Herman Cain on Fox
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad1cf8de938401e5f77a03584e4adcd53615146edfaf71a703 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad1cf8de938401e5f77a03584e4adcd53615146edfaf71a703 

NEWT CITES WEEK OLD POLL AS BRAND NEW:At a rally in Tampa, Gingrich told the crowd: "Tomorrow is a really, really big day, and let me just say, the polls are all over the place. We just got word of a brand new poll that came out about an hour ago that said we are now tied 35 percent." ABC's Arlette Saenz calls him out: "The poll was actually released Friday and conducted early last week, when the margin between Gingrich and Romney was much smaller than it is one day before the primary."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad13cca51b9082d43741a6aede99a8c95769777e627173357c 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad13cca51b9082d43741a6aede99a8c95769777e627173357c 

SANTORUM WILL RELEASE FOUR YEARS OF TAXES:"Rick Santorum said Monday he plans to release four years of tax returns that he found while digging through paperwork at his Pennsylvania home this weekend. 'But I want to make sure that I get someone to take a look at them to make sure that we - that I have everything that I&#39;m supposed to have,' Santorum said on CNN&#39;s 'John King, USA.'" CNN's write-up of the interview:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad021594014f8530ad747c01489a8b68e2d518bed2145210e3 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad021594014f8530ad747c01489a8b68e2d518bed2145210e3 .

ROMNEY MENTIONS HIS DAD WAS BORN IN MEXICO - BUT HE ADDS LITTLE MORE:"Were he to tell the rest of the story, it doubtless would resonate with many here: George Romney was born in Mexico and was 5 years old when a revolution forced his family members in 1912 to flee their Mormon colony and seek refuge in the United States," the Boston Globe's Michael Kranish writes today. "But there are other elements to the Romney story that may explain why he doesn't tell the full tale on the campaign trail. The reason that George was born in Mexico is that his grandfather - Mitt's great-grandfather - had taken refuge there in order to escape US laws against polygamy. It was this family patriarch, Miles
 Park Romney, who established the colony and lived there with four wives. Mitt Romney has decried what he has called the 'awful' practice of polygamy and has never visited the colony, even though several dozen of his cousins continue to live there."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34adfb9fc8724d86687439cce5c232920353b63741fe209d5697 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34adfb9fc8724d86687439cce5c232920353b63741fe209d5697 

MONEY -

REMEMBER HIM? - PERRY ONLY RAISED $2.9 MILLION IN Q4:"Though he raised more than $20 million overall during 2011, Perry raised less than $2.9 million of that amount between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31, federal records indicate, as disastrous debate performances and plummeting poll numbers crippled his fundraising efforts," Dave Levinthal and Robin Bravender write. "Perry's campaign had more than $15 million cash on hand in early October. By the year's end, that dwindled to less than $3.77 million."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad0c9cc789de8084184a647919021146c5fad08c20ce199e41 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad0c9cc789de8084184a647919021146c5fad08c20ce199e41 

SUPER PACS SET TO DISCLOSE BIG DONORS TODAY:"Now, for the first time since they started shaping this campaign in earnest, many of those 'super' political action committees are set to disclose just who is financing their pseudo-campaign operations," per the AP. "Many took advantage of a change in federal rules that essentially let them shield their donors&#39; identities until after key primary elections in January. But they still must submit their financial reports to the Federal Election Commission by Tuesday. Only a handful of donors are known."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34adee5d454238a52cd5460e985ea4b16788b6710053378147d7 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34adee5d454238a52cd5460e985ea4b16788b6710053378147d7 

WHY ADS GO WHERE:The campaigns and super PACs have been running a lot of ads on HGTV, the Food Network and the Weather Channel because their viewers tend to be more Republican. Jeremy Peters has a buzzy story with some good stats:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad09c6e20db6bf420b82e0033bd56c76b6fddfa419c4aeb916 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad09c6e20db6bf420b82e0033bd56c76b6fddfa419c4aeb916 .

WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS UP TO:"In the morning, the President will receive the Presidential Daily Briefing in the Oval Office...Later in the morning, the President will hold a Cabinet Meeting in the Cabinet Room...In the afternoon, the President will meet with Secretary of Defense Panetta in the Oval Office...In the evening, the President will deliver remarks at a campaign event in Washington, DC...Later in the evening, the President will deliver remarks at a campaign event at a private residence in Washington, DC."

QUOTE DU JOURfrom last night's Google+ hangout: "Send me your husband's resume," the president told a woman who said her engineer husband cannot find a job.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad75ef28cae1d5b250dc71cd272845128a15d5876b1d238e9d 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad75ef28cae1d5b250dc71cd272845128a15d5876b1d238e9d 

OREGON HOUSE SPECIAL - DEMS POISED TO HOLD WU'S SEAT TODAY:"The latest turnout figures, gathered Monday from the five counties in Oregon&#39;s 1st Congressional District, show that just over 36 percent of voters have returned their ballots in advance of the 8 p.m. Tuesday election deadline... All told, just over 47 percent of the ballots returned have been from Democrats," per the Oregonian's Jeff Mapes. "The turnout numbers are good news for the campaign of Democrat Suzanne Bonamici, who can win by holding a large majority of the Democratic votes and a slice of the vote from other voters. Republican Rob Cornilles needs to corral almost all of the Republican votes and make big inroads into
 the Democratic and 'other' vote to win the election."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad710f3879fa239a4b10e2e38b1d3df98bfa950c93f2639d4b 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ba9d91109d8d34ad710f3879fa239a4b10e2e38b1d3df98bfa950c93f2639d4b 

SHE GOT OUTSIDE HELP:The DCCC has spent $1.3 million to help Bonamici. The NRCC has spent $85,000.
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120ce115d75c805d2b1d9a9567e54d51b064534e27baf0039c91 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120ce115d75c805d2b1d9a9567e54d51b064534e27baf0039c91 

MONTANA SENATE - IS REHBERG UP 11...OR 3?Public Opinion Strategies says in a poll for Crossroads (which got fed to a reporter at Roll Call) that Denny Rehberg is up big on Jon Tester (11 points). On the same day, another group (the Montana Wildlife Federation) released a poll from Colorado College, also conducted by Public Opinion Strategies but with the Democratic firm Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates, that suggests the race is within the margin of error (Rehberg up 3). Roll Call story:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120c6831f011bffe916b3556e1371b3943d19c30becd892728d5 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120c6831f011bffe916b3556e1371b3943d19c30becd892728d5 . Crossroads memo:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120c39237e24d273e3c3d4b334f6033aa9cf0f8a1821009026ad 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120c39237e24d273e3c3d4b334f6033aa9cf0f8a1821009026ad . Colorado College press release:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120ce7c8dfec5507138cd127406c2c9f700bccd451385045ca90 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120ce7c8dfec5507138cd127406c2c9f700bccd451385045ca90 . A PowerPoint about the joint poll (the ballot question is on the 3rd slide in this link):
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120c4448482a50c9d2d64b774b92182b5e6c803e48bce5e87d8a 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120c4448482a50c9d2d64b774b92182b5e6c803e48bce5e87d8a .

FLORIDA SENATE - CRAIG MILLER DROPS OUT OF SENATE RACE, MAY PRIMARY MICA:"Craig Miller, the former Ruth&#39;s Chris Steakhouse CEO who never managed to gain traction in his bid for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, announced Monday he plans to run for a congressional seat that would represent Volusia and Flagler counties," per the Daytona Beach News-Journal. "Though new congressional boundaries haven&#39;t been locked in yet by the Florida Legislature, preliminary proposals show a district that includes all of Flagler and St. Johns counties, about half of Putnam county to the west and all but Southwest Volusia to the south. No member of Congress currently lives in the district...John
 Mica, the Winter Park Republican who&#39;s represented the area for 10 terms, ... said he&#39;s waiting to see how the districts shake out, but he&#39;s made a point of reminding people members of Congress aren&#39;t required to reside in the district they represent."
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120c036fd5f4ff807d5551b37df4eb6c0e2c16e45ff89b13294f 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120c036fd5f4ff807d5551b37df4eb6c0e2c16e45ff89b13294f 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:"Well, I think you can expect advisers to think that the work of advisers is very, very important." -Mitt Romney responding to questions from Matt Lauer about the New York Times story on his "rush the quarterback" strategy
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120ca6d3d4e8baeae08601a424be11cfe4c498772f72b06e01b2 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9517c3aef0e6120ca6d3d4e8baeae08601a424be11cfe4c498772f72b06e01b2 

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