Subject: Share the View -- on Buffett's Blunders and Tea Party Sunshine
From: "Bloomberg View -- Tobin Harshaw" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2012 09:01:18 +0000

_Share the View_
   _Bloomberg View _

A Quick Look at Bloomberg News's Opinion Section for March 20,  2012

   Let's start the day with some tricky yes-no questions. (Spoiler alert! The
   answers are: "Maybe"; "No"; "Yes"; "On second thought, no"; "Definitely,
   no"; and "Are you kidding?")

   Has Warren Buffett lost his touch?  "Berkshire stock hovers at about a 10
   percent premium to the company’s estimated $110 billion per-share book value
   at March 31, 2012, (assuming the overall book value increases in a rising
   stock market by about $10 billion this quarter) and perhaps below a
   liquidation price," answers View columnist Alice Shroeder. "In essence, the
   market is placing no value on Berkshire’s prospects.   I believe two basic
   problems have brought Berkshire to this pass. First, Buffett’s investing
   record has been underwhelming for the past few years, except for special
   opportunities linked to his own reputation and relationships. Second,
   Buffett has lost stature because of the way he uses his role as  a
   public figure. And both of these situations will be difficult to reverse."
   [2]Link.
     Links:
       2. http://bloom.bg/GzHv9m

   Can Mitt Romney lose the nomination? "Almost every Republican nomination
   contest sees a division between establishment-oriented candidates and
   conservative insurgents," writes columnist Ramesh Ponnuru. "The balance of
   power is held by those voters -- sympathetic to both the insurgents and the
   party establishment -- who describe themselves to pollsters as “somewhat
   conservative.” The establishment always wins these fights, for several
   reasons. Its candidates make the necessary accommodations to stay acceptable
   to the center of the party. Voters who want a conservative insurgent almost
   invariably fail to settle on one candidate to play that role. They also
   sometimes favor candidates who, for one reason or another, just aren’t
   plausible nominees."[3] Link.
     Links:
       3. http://bloom.bg/GzZ20L

   Will we ever know who's behind all those political ads on TV? "Since the
   Federal Election Commission has shown itself to be virtually incapable
   of ensuring transparency in campaign finance, it would be nice if someone
   else picked up the slack," note the View editors. "It turns out someone
   can. The Federal Communications Commission has proposed requiring
   broadcasters to post online the name of anyone who buys time for political
   advertising along with the purchase price and airdates. It’s an excellent
   idea, made more salient in an era of shady super-PACs. It can be
   accomplished with no great effort by broadcasters." [4]Link.
     Links:
       4. http://bloom.bg/GzCXmP

   Is Benjamin Netanyahu bluffing on an Iran attack? "Last week, I argued that
   Netanyahu's campaign to convince the West that Iran’s nuclear program
   represents a threat -- not only to his country but also to the entire Middle
   East and beyond -- has worked so well that it could represent the perfect
   bluff," writes columnist Jeffrey Goldberg. "After interviewing many people
   with direct knowledge of internal government thinking, however, I’m highly
   confident that Netanyahu isn't bluffing -- that he is in fact counting down
   to the day when he will authorize a strike against a half-dozen or more
   Iranian nuclear facilities." [5]Link.
     Links:
       5. http://bloom.bg/GA1F3S

   Can we just soak the rich and move on? "In this age of austerity,
   many governments are looking for ways to fill gaps in their budgets by
   taxing the rich more," explain the View editors. "These proposals make for
   great politics, but terrible economics. This week, the U.K.’s coalition
   government will produce its budget for the next year. Among proposals being
   discussed between the coalition partners is a so-called mansion tax -- an
   annual 1 percent levy on homes worth more than 2 million pounds.... The tax
   would raise about 1.7 billion pounds annually, according to a Liberal
   Democrat estimate, which the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a nonpartisan
   think tank in London, says is about right. That would barely scratch the
   budget deficit, which the institute projects to be 124 billion pounds over
   the next year." [6]Link.
   Might a spot of dirty weather have fouled the Tea Party's hopes?  "The Tea
   Party came into prominence in a series of protests around the country on tax
   day, April 15, 2009. Sunny skies in some parts of the country encouraged
   large and boisterous rallies, while in other places rain suppressed the
   attendance. If the areas that nature randomly selected to have good
   weather that day subsequently became more conservative, that would suggest
   the Tea Party had a real impact beyond what would have happened in its
   absence. How much of a difference can a rainstorm make? It turns out a lot.
   At least that’s the message from some striking research by four young
   scholars spanning the political spectrum -- Andreas Madestam of Bocconi
   University and Daniel Shoag, Stan Veuger and David Yanagizawa-Drott of
   Harvard University." [7]Link.
     Links:
       6. http://bloom.bg/GzM2LR
       7. http://bloom.bg/GzO9R2

   Also, op-ed contributor Shikha Dalmia on Detroit's latest fiscal disaster;
   World View blog contributors Nicholas Noe and Walid Raad on Syrian
   explosions; and the editors' breaking views at The Ticker.

   To see if you share the View, go to [8]www.bloomberg.com/view.
   And check out our editors' blog, [9]The Ticker.
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     Links:
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       9. http://www.bloomberg.com/view/the-ticker

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