Subject: Fw: ChangeWave Report: Impact of Fed Stimulus Programs on U.S. Consumers and Businesses
From: "John Marttila" <[email-masked]>
To: "Bruce Reed" <[email-masked]>, "Alan Hoffman" <[email-masked]>, "Steve Ricchetti" <[email-masked]>, "Ted Kaufman" <[email-masked]>, "hurricane5155" <[email-masked]>, <[email-masked]>, "Ron Klain" <[email-masked]>, "Mike Donilon" <[email-masked]>, "Shailagh Murray" <[email-masked]>, "Michele Smith" <[email-masked]>
Cc: "Mary Robbins" <[email-masked]>, "Paul Carton" <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 18 May 2012 12:08:47 -0700 (PDT)

I asked my friend, Paul Carton of ChangeWave Research, to prepare summary analytic charts focussing on two issues:  The POSITIVE economic impact of the two federal stimulus programs in 2010 and 2011.  And the NEGATIVE impact of the debt ceiling debate during June, July and August of 2011.

The Republicans are obviously aware of the negative economic impact of last year's debt ceiling debate -- and Boehner's remarks this week are an indication they will try to gum things up again.  Action that should be prevented/exposed at all costs.  

Paul's data is up to the minute -- and it shows the economy is moving "sideways" in his words.  His data has consistently shown the actual "behavior" of consumers (first chart A) is more predictive than the attitudes of Americans about the economy (3rd chart C).  And fortunately, the behavior of consumers is much more encouraging than their assessment of the national economy.   

Based on his data, he believes strongly that the economy would benefit significantly from another stimulus program during 2012 -- as it did in 2010 and 2011.  Whether this is possible is another matter.  But his data speaks to the impact of the last two stimulus packages.

John

His data is in this e-mail below.  And a pdf is attached.
 
John Marttila
Marttila Strategies
Mobile: 617-308-1557
DC Direct:  202-249-1466
Boston Direct:  617-725-1085
Website: http:marttilastrategies.com

----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Paul Carton <[email-masked]>
To: "John Marttila ([email-masked])" 
Subject: ChangeWave Report: Impact of Fed Stimulus Programs on U.S. Consumers and Businesses

Report 
 
Impact of Fed QE2 and Fed "Operation Twist" Stimulus Programs on U.S. Consumers and Businesses

________________________________

I. ChangeWave Consumer Spending Survey Results
A. Overall U.S. Consumer Spending: April 2010 - May 2012
Would you say your overall spending over the next 90 days will be more than last year, less than last year, or the same as last year?

B. Overall U.S. Consumer Spending: May 2008 - May 2012
Would you say your overall spending over the next 90 days will be more than last year, less than last year, or the same as last year?    

C. Consumer Expectations on Overall Direction of the Economy: November 2009 - May 2012
In your opinion, which of the following statements best describes the overall direction of the economy over the next 90 days?

D. Consumer Confidence With U.S. Stock Market: November 2009 - May 2012
Are you now more or less confident in the U.S. stock market compared to 90 days ago?

II. ChangeWave Corporate IT Spending Survey Results
A. Projected IT Spending for Next Quarter: June 2002 - May 2012
Regarding your own company's IT budget, do you think you'll see an increase, a decrease, or will IT spending remain the same for next quarter vs. the current quarter?   

**Note: May 2012 Results are Preliminary 

B. ChangeWave U.S. Corporate IT Spending Indicator: August 2006 - May 2012
Regarding your own company's IT budget, do you think you'll see an increase, a decrease, or will IT spending remain the same for next quarter vs. the current quarter?